1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Oil - based LLDPE cost increased by 2.46% to 7,551 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 133 yuan/ton to - 695 yuan/ton; coal - based LLDPE cost increased by 0.26% to 6,512 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 51 yuan/ton to 314 yuan/ton [2] - As downstream enterprises gradually took holidays and stopped work, the decline in the downstream operating rate of PE widened this week, with the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film both maintaining a downward trend [2] - Factory and social inventories entered the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage, and the inventory pressure was not large [2] - Concerns about the US - Iran situation in the market offset the negative impact of the unexpected increase in EIA inventory, and international oil prices closed slightly higher yesterday [2] - As the Spring Festival holiday approached, the spot trading atmosphere of PE weakened, and the futures trading volume shrank. Attention should be paid to the scale of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the inventory removal rhythm after the festival. The daily K - line of L2605 should focus on the support around 6,680 and the pressure around 6,830 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of polyethylene was 6,734 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 6,734 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 6,781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 258,012 lots, a decrease of 20,327 lots; the open interest was 501,315 lots, a decrease of 2,602 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was 66, a decrease of 1; the 5 - 9 spread was - 47, an increase of 2; the 9 - 1 spread was - 19, a decrease of 1 [2] - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions of polyethylene was 518,077 lots, a decrease of 103 lots; the sell order volume was 548,892 lots, an increase of 1,592 lots; the net buy order volume was - 30,815 lots, a decrease of 1,695 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,663.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43 yuan; the average price in East China was 6,750.47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.93 yuan [2] - The basis was - 70.09, an increase of 52.56 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB intermediate price of naphtha in the Singapore region was 66.97 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.89 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 617.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.75 US dollars [2] - The CFR intermediate price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 676 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR intermediate price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 696 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 85.91%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 38.82%, a decrease of 3.25 percentage points; the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) pipes was 23.67%, a decrease of 4.16 percentage points; the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) agricultural film was 30.18%, a decrease of 4.38 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 17.68%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.02%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of polyethylene was 15.16%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.16%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From February 6th to 12th, the total polyethylene output in China was 723,900 tons, a 1.61% increase from last week [2] - From January 30th to February 5th, the average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products in China decreased by 4.0% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 4.4% compared with the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging film decreased by 3.3% compared with the previous period [2] - As of February 4th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 379,700 tons, a 17.55% increase from last week; as of February 6th, the social inventory of PE was 507,800 tons, a 4.70% increase from last week [2] - From January 31st to February 6th, L2605 fluctuated weakly and finally closed at 6,734 yuan/ton. This week, the plants of Shanghai Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical stopped production, but the impact days were limited. Plants such as Guangdong Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical restarted, and the PE output increased month - on - month [2]

塑料产业日报 2026-01-28 计震荡走势，日度K线关注6900附近支撑与7030附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6967 | 68 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7025 | 78 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6967 | 68 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7015 | 85 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 559235 | 62270 持仓 ...

Report Title - Plastic Industry Daily Report 2026-01-07 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term L2605 is expected to show a volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the support around 6460 and the pressure around 6760. The total inventory of PE maintains a de - stocking trend with little pressure. Oil - based process costs decrease and losses are reduced, while coal - based process costs remain stable and profits are repaired. In January, new domestic PE production capacity continues to increase, and low - priced overseas resources continue to flow in. Domestic enterprises may increase temporarily shut - down devices to relieve supply pressure. The demand for agricultural film is in the off - season, and the demand for packaging film is limited and difficult to form demand support [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene is 6642 yuan/ton, with a change of 63. The 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contract closing prices are 6430 yuan/ton (change: 101), 6642 yuan/ton (change: 63), and 6687 yuan/ton (change: 69) respectively. The trading volume is 566498 lots (change: 108635), and the open interest is 505678 lots (change: - 2207). The 1 - 5 spread is - 212 (change: 38). The buy orders, sell orders, and net buy orders of the top 20 futures positions are 430624 lots (change: - 1454), 496022 lots (change: 6601), and - 65398 lots (change: - 8055) respectively [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE(7042) in North China is 6542.17 yuan/ton (change: 61.3), and in East China is 6603.95 yuan/ton (change: 53.26). The basis is - 99.83 (change: - 1.7) [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 56.74 US dollars/barrel (change: 1.44), the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan is 534.25 US dollars/ton (change: 11.75). The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 726 US dollars/ton (change: 0), and in Northeast Asia is 746 US dollars/ton (change: 0) [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 83.23% (change: 0.59%) [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene (PE) in packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film are 48.41% (change: 0.19%), 30.17% (change: - 0.5%), and 38.95% (change: - 4.91%) respectively [2] Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of polyethylene are 17.83% (change: 0.34) and 14.13% (change: 0.26) respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options of polyethylene are 14.32% (change: 0.58) and 14.31% (change: 0.55) respectively [2] Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, the PE factory operating rate increased by 0.59% to 83.23%, and the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.68% to 41.15%. The agricultural film operating rate decreased by 4.91% to 38.95%, and the packaging film operating rate increased by 0.19% to 48.41%. As of January 2, the PE factory inventory was 37.07 tons, a decrease of 19.17% from last week, and the PE social inventory was 47.51 tons, an increase of 0.76% from last week. From December 27 to January 2, the LLDPE oil - based cost decreased by 0.55% to 6925.43 yuan/ton, the coal - based cost remained stable at 5732 yuan/ton, the oil - based profit increased by 36.71 yuan/ton to - 630.29 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 143.14 yuan/ton to - 63.57 yuan/ton. Recently, the 250,000 - ton device of Maoming Petrochemical restarted, and the PE capacity utilization rate increased slightly [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term L2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, with daily K - line focusing on support around 6750 and resistance around 6870 [2]. - PE production and capacity utilization are expected to fluctuate slightly. Supply pressure is on the rise as new capacity is planned to be put into operation in December. Downstream开工率 is expected to weaken marginally. International oil prices are in a multi - empty game [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - Futures prices of polyethylene contracts increased, with the 1 - month contract at 6803 yuan/ton (up 14), the 5 - month contract at 6863 yuan/ton (up 6), and the 9 - month contract at 6892 yuan/ton (up 10). Trading volume was 305073 hands (down 25026), and open interest was 434382 hands (down 23011). The 1 - 5 spread was - 60 (up 8). The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 98574 hands (down 5841) [2]. b. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6814.78 yuan/ton (up 10.43), and in East China was 7070.24 yuan/ton (down 6.67). The basis was 11.78 (down 3.57) [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.85 dollars/barrel (up 0.61), and the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 571.5 dollars/ton (up 5.5). The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 721 dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Northeast Asia was 741 dollars/ton (up 10) [2]. d. Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 84.51% (up 1.79) [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of PE packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 50.7% (down 0.23), 31.83% (down 0.17), and 49.04% (down 0.87) respectively [2]. f. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.49% (up 1.06), the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.54% (up 0.68), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.17%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.16% (down 3.52) [2]. g. Industry News - From November 21st to 27th, China's polyethylene production was 684800 tons (up 2.17% week - on - week), and the capacity utilization rate was 84.51% (up 1.8 percentage points). The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.4%. The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises decreased by 9.80% to 454000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 3.05% to 471100 tons [2]. - From November 22nd to 28th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 1.54% to 7173 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 63.57 yuan/ton to - 346.14 yuan/ton. The cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.26% to 7066 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 95.14 yuan/ton to - 237.43 yuan/ton [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the shutdown and maintenance of plants at Hengli Petrochemical, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, and Zhongsha Petrochemical had a limited impact on the number of days. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's Line 3 restarted, and the PE production and capacity utilization rate increased month-on-month. The downstream agricultural film operating rate remained stable, the packaging film operating rate decreased slightly, and the overall operating rate of PE downstream decreased slightly. Production enterprise inventories accumulated significantly, social inventories decreased slightly, and total inventories accumulated. The cost of oil-based production decreased slightly, the cost of coal-based production increased slightly, and the losses of both oil-based and coal-based processes deepened. [2] - This week, Zhongying Petrochemical's plant will be shut down for maintenance, and the plants of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Zhongsha Petrochemical, and Shanghai Petrochemical are expected to restart. PE production and capacity utilization rate are expected to change little month-on-month. In November, there is less new planned maintenance capacity for PE, and at the same time, two new plants of Guangxi Petrochemical continue to increase production, resulting in high supply pressure. [2] - The demand for northern greenhouse films is gradually declining, while the demand for southern greenhouse films still provides some support. Orders and operating rates for agricultural films are expected to fluctuate slightly; orders for packaging films are marginally weakening, and demand follow-up is limited. [2] - In terms of cost, OPEC's production increase will continue until the end of the year, and the situation of stronger supply than demand for crude oil is expected to continue. However, geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela may intensify, and there are both positive and negative factors affecting international oil prices. In the short term, L2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range expected to be around 6750 - 6950. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan; the closing prices of the January, May, and September contracts were 6785 yuan/ton, 6852 yuan/ton, and 6906 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 58 yuan, 50 yuan, and 43 yuan. [2] - The trading volume was 260,592 lots, an increase of 53,772 lots; the open interest was 548,344 lots, an increase of 6,049 lots. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was -67, a decrease of 8; the long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 473,161 lots, an increase of 17,538 lots; the short positions were 584,549 lots, an increase of 20,653 lots; the net long positions were -111,388 lots, a decrease of 3,115 lots. [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6932.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.83 yuan; in East China, it was 7115.24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.33 yuan. [2] - The basis was 147.17, an increase of 40.17. [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.96 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.31 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 571.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.13 US dollars. [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 726 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 736 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 83.14%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene (PE) in packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 50.41%, 31.67%, and 49.96% respectively. The operating rate of packaging film decreased by 0.37 percentage points, while the others remained unchanged. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 8.89%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.68%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 13.05%, an increase of 2.24 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, China's total polyethylene production was 673,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.14%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points compared to the previous period. [2] - From November 7th to 13th, the average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural films remained the same as before, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.4%. [2] - As of November 12th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.96%; as of November 7th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 500,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.86%. [2] - From November 8th to 14th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.98 to 7256 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 35.43 yuan/ton to - 405.86 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 2.43% to 7051 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 211.57 yuan/ton to - 182.57 yuan/ton. [2]