Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - PE production decreased by 2.81% to 664,000 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 2.32 percentage points to 80.07%. Downstream operating rate increased by 3.8% week - on - week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 8.6% and the packaging film operating rate up 2.2%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.23% to 568,300 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.98% to 607,100 tons. PE maintenance plans increased, and industry supply pressure is expected to continue to ease. The downstream is in the "Golden March" peak season, and orders for mulch and packaging films are seasonally increasing, driving demand recovery. The short - term supply of raw materials such as ethylene in Asia is difficult to recover, giving some support to LLDPE. L2605 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news from the Middle East [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 8,715 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan. The 1 - month contract was 8,273 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 8,715 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 8,568 yuan/ton, down 168 yuan. Trading volume was 1,057,929 lots, down 75,737 lots; open interest was 319,820 lots, up 4,893 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 442, up 33; the 5 - 9 spread was 147, down 35; the 9 - 1 spread was 295, up 2. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 454,065 lots, down 989 lots; the short positions were 459,362 lots, down 7,665 lots; the net long positions were - 5,297 lots, up 6,676 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 8,443.48 yuan/ton, down 446.96 yuan; in East China, it was 8,784.42 yuan/ton, down 352.79 yuan. The basis was - 271.52, down 243.95 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 127.51 US dollars/barrel, down 11.24 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 1,088.5 US dollars/ton, down 101 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 1,426 US dollars/ton, up 75 US dollars; in Northeast Asia, it was 1,451 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 80.07%, down 2.32 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 45.56%, up 2.19 percentage points; for pipes, it was 23.33%, up 5.33 percentage points; for agricultural film, it was 35.44%, up 8.63 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 41.68%, up 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 33.5%, up 0.17 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of polyethylene was 52.15%, down 6.51 percentage points [2] Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, China's polyethylene production was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 2.81% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 80.07%, a decrease of 2.32 percentage points from the previous period. The average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 3.8% from the previous period, with the overall operating rate of agricultural film up 8.6% and the PE packaging film operating rate up 2.2%. As of March 18th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 568,300 tons, a decrease of 1.23% week - on - week; as of March 20th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 607,100 tons, a decrease of 1.98% week - on - week. From March 13th to 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 9.35% to 10,177 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 519 yuan/ton to - 1,848 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.72% to 6,542 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 383 yuan/ton to 1,829 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - L2605 rose and then fell, closing at 8,918 yuan/ton with a 3.57% decline. Recent international oil prices rebounded after a sharp drop. In terms of plastic supply and demand, some plants were under maintenance, PE production decreased by 2.81% to 664,000 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 2.32 percentage points to 80.07%. Downstream operating rates increased by 3.8% week-on-week. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.23% to 568,300 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.98% to 607,100 tons. PE maintenance plans increased, and supply pressure is expected to ease. The downstream is in the traditional peak season, and demand is recovering. Asian ethylene prices are strong, providing support for LLDPE. L2605 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news from the Middle East [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 8,918 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 8,443 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 8,918 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 8,736 yuan/ton, down 576 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 1,133,666 lots, up 265,827 lots; the open interest was 314,927 lots, down 58,310 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was - 475, up 330; the 5 - 9 spread was 182, down 29; the 9 - 1 spread was 293, down 301 [2] - The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 455,054 lots, down 50,372 lots; the short positions were 467,027 lots, down 36,997 lots; the net long positions were - 11,973 lots, down 13,375 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 8,890.43 yuan/ton, up 2.17 yuan; in East China, it was 9,137.21 yuan/ton, up 1.16 yuan [2] - The basis was - 27.57, up 607.17 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 138.75 US dollars per barrel, up 4.77 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 1,189.5 US dollars per ton, up 49 US dollars [2] - The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 1,426 US dollars per ton, up 75 US dollars; in Northeast Asia, it was 1,451 US dollars per ton, up 25 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 80.07%, down 2.32 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film was 45.56%, up 2.19 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 23.33%, up 5.33 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 35.44%, up 8.63 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 41.68%, up 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 33.5%, up 0.17 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 52.15%, down 6.51 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, China's polyethylene production was 664,000 tons, a 2.81% decrease from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 80.07%, a 2.32 - percentage - point decrease [2] - From March 13th to 19th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 3.8% from the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural film increased by 8.6%, and the operating rate of PE packaging film increased by 2.2% [2] - As of March 18th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 568,300 tons, a 1.23% decrease from the previous week; as of March 20th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 607,100 tons, a 1.98% decrease from the previous week [2] - From March 13th to 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 9.35% to 10,177 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 519 yuan/ton to - 1,848 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.72% to 6,542 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 383 yuan/ton to 1,829 yuan/ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - L2605 rose 4.49% to close at 8,916 yuan/ton. After Iran attacked Saudi, UAE, and Qatari oil facilities related to the US, international oil prices fluctuated and rose. The resumption of Saudi oil exports to half of the normal level led to a slight correction in international oil prices. In terms of plastic supply and demand, PE production decreased by 2.81% to 664,000 tons this week, with a capacity utilization rate down 2.32% to 80.07%. Downstream开工率 increased by 5.2% week - on - week, with the agricultural film开工率 up 7.9% and the packaging film开工率 up 3.1%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 7.31% to 575,400 tons, while social inventory decreased by 6.58% to 619,300 tons. With more PE maintenance plans, supply pressure is expected to ease. The downstream is in the traditional "Golden March" peak season, and LLDPE supply and demand are acceptable. Due to the uncertainty in the Middle East situation, L2605 is expected to fluctuate with international oil prices in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价 of polyethylene: The current price is 8,916 yuan/ton, with a change of 485. The 1 - month contract price is 8,390 yuan/ton, up 462; the 5 - month contract price is 8,916 yuan/ton, up 485; the 9 - month contract price is 8,681 yuan/ton, up 506. - Trading volume is 978,112 lots, up 188,753; open interest is 356,744 lots, up 12,786. - 1 - 5 spread is - 526, down 23; 5 - 9 spread is 235, down 21; 9 - 1 spread is 291, up 44. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 491,208 lots, up 12,287; the short position is 494,670 lots, up 15,102; the net long position is - 3,462 lots, down 2,815 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 8,529.13 yuan/ton, up 162.17; in East China is 8,777.44 yuan/ton, up 208.84. - The basis is - 386.87, down 322.83 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 124.46 US dollars/barrel, down 0.09; CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 1,039.25 US dollars/ton, up 7.25. - The mid - price of ethylene CFR Southeast Asia is 1,281 US dollars/ton, up 30; the mid - price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia is 1,281 US dollars/ton, up 30 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical开工率 is 82.39%, down 4.52 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 43.37% (weekly), up 3.07; the开工率 of PE pipes is 18% (weekly), up 7.83; the开工率 of PE agricultural film is 26.81% (weekly), up 7.95 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 38.46%, up 0.61; the 40 - day historical volatility is 30.84%, up 0.18. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is - 4.6; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 45.51, down 4.63 [2] 3.7 Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, China's polyethylene production was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 2.81% from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.07%, a decrease of 2.32 percentage points from the previous period. - From March 6th to 12th, the average开工率 of Chinese polyethylene downstream products increased by 5.2% from the previous period. - As of March 11th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 575,400 tons, a 7.31% increase from last week; as of March 13th, the social inventory of PE was 619,300 tons, a 6.58% decrease from the previous period. - From March 6th to 12th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 14.37% to 9,306 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 46 yuan/ton to - 1,329 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 1.14% to 6,602 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 1,211 yuan/ton to 1,446 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - L2605 saw a rise followed by a decline, closing at 8431 yuan/ton. The market digested the impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict on crude oil supply, and with the expected increase in profit and a correction in international oil prices, the plastics market was affected. The supply of PE decreased with some device shutdowns for maintenance, while downstream demand recovered due to the "Golden March" season. LLDPE supply and demand were acceptable, and in the short term, L2605 was expected to fluctuate with international oil prices, with technical attention on the support around 8120 and the resistance around 8895 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for polyethylene was 8431 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7928 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 8431 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 8175 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 789359 lots, down 60458 lots; the open interest was 343958 lots, up 10229 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was - 503, down 21; the 5 - 9 spread was 256, down 38; the 9 - 1 spread was 247, up 59 [2] - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions for polyethylene was 478921 lots, up 12379 lots; the sell order volume was 479568 lots, up 6618 lots; the net buy order volume was - 647 lots, up 5761 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 8366.96 yuan/ton, down 3.04 yuan; in East China, it was 8568.6 yuan/ton, down 14.88 yuan [2] - The basis was - 64.04, up 61.96 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 124.55 US dollars/barrel, down 3.42 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 1032 US dollars/ton, down 20.5 US dollars [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia was 1251 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 82.39%, down 4.52 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 43.37%, up 3.07 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 18%, up 7.83 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 26.81%, up 7.95 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 37.85%, up 0.79 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 30.65%, up 0.78 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene was 50.11%, down 12.33 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 50.11%, down 12.27 percentage points [2] Industry News - From March 6th to 12th, China's polyethylene production was 68.32 tons, down 5.20% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 82.39%, down 4.52 percentage points [2] - From March 6th to 12th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 5.2% [2] - As of March 11th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 57.54 tons, up 7.31% from the previous week; as of March 13th, the social inventory of PE was 61.93 tons, down 6.58% from the previous period [2] - From March 6th to 12th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 14.37% to 9306 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 46 yuan/ton to - 1329 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 1.14% to 6602 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 1211 yuan/ton to 1446 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - L2605 oscillates weakly, closing at 6,777 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the domestic PE operating rate increased by 1.13% to 88.43%. There are few planned device overhauls in March, but the number of temporarily shut - down devices is expected to increase due to low - profit conditions. After the device commissioning is postponed, there is a commissioning window from February to March, and the domestic PE supply pressure is expected to be relatively limited. Downstream industries will fully resume work after the Lantern Festival, and the domestic demand is supported as the mulch film enters the traditional peak season in March. Attention should be paid to the post - festival PE inventory reduction rhythm. In terms of cost, Iran plans to take necessary measures to reach an agreement with the US, and the US API inventory decreased more than expected, with international oil prices slightly falling yesterday. L2605 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices in the short term, and the daily K - line should focus on the support near 6,690 and the pressure near 6,855 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures main contract closing price of polyethylene: 6,777 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; 1 - month contract closing price: 6,860 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; 5 - month contract closing price: 6,777 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; 9 - month contract closing price: 6,847 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [2] - Trading volume: 340,289 lots, down 14,612 lots; open interest: 507,884 lots, up 25,650 lots [2] - 1 - 5 spread: 83, up 20; 5 - 9 spread: - 70, down 12; 9 - 1 spread: - 13, down 8 [2] - Futures top 20 long positions: 512,438 lots, up 13,795 lots; short positions: 560,798 lots, up 22,074 lots; net long positions: - 48,360 lots, down 8,279 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - LLDPE (7042) average price in North China: 6,729.13 yuan/ton, up 24.35 yuan; in East China: 6,802.56 yuan/ton, up 16.98 yuan [2] - Basis: - 47.87, up 67.35 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore: 66.42 US dollars/barrel, down 0.13 US dollars; CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan: 613.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.75 US dollars [2] - Ethylene CFR Southeast Asia middle price: 686 US dollars/ton, unchanged; Ethylene CFR Northeast Asia middle price: 706 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - National PE petrochemical operating rate: 88.43%, up 1.13% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - PE packaging film operating rate: 20.3%, unchanged; PE pipe operating rate: 0%, down 9.33%; PE agricultural film operating rate: 24.74%, down 5.44% [2] 3.6 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene: 19.96%, up 2.28%; 40 - day historical volatility: 18.34%, up 1.32% [2] - At - the - money put option implied volatility of polyethylene: 15.75%, up 1.03%; At - the - money call option implied volatility: 15.75%, up 1.02% [2] 3.7 Industry News - From February 14th to 20th, PE capacity utilization was 88.43%, up 1.13% month - on - month [2] - From February 6th to 12th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 13.90% month - on - month, among which the agricultural film operating rate decreased by 5.4% and the packaging film operating rate decreased by 18.5% [2] - As of February 11th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 343,700 tons, down 9.48% from last week; as of February 6th, the social inventory of PE was 507,800 tons, up 4.70% from last week [2] - From February 8th to 13th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.81% to 7,490 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 135 yuan/ton to - 830 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.21% to 6,498 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 190 yuan/ton to 123 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2605 fluctuated strongly, closing at 6,775 yuan/ton. Last week, some devices such as Zhonghua Quanzhou, Zhongying Petrochemical, and Guangdong Petrochemical stopped, but the impact days were limited. With the previous maintenance devices restarting, PE production and capacity utilization increased slightly. As the Spring Festival approaches, the decline in the downstream operating rate of PE has widened, with the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film both decreasing month - on - month. Factory and social inventories have entered the inventory accumulation stage for the Spring Festival, and the inventory pressure is not significant. Last week, the loss of the oil - based process widened slightly, and the profit of the coal - based process narrowed slightly. There is no planned new maintenance capacity this week, and the previously shut - down devices are restarting one after another. The PE capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise. Due to the gradual vacation and shutdown of product enterprises, the PE demand side is expected to remain weak. In terms of cost, the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran has shown new signs of tension, and the recent WTI and Brent oil prices have fluctuated strongly. The daily range of L2605 is expected to be around 6,660 - 6,820 [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene is 6,775 yuan/ton, with a change of 54. The closing price of the January contract is 6,839 yuan/ton, with a change of 51. The closing price of the May contract is 6,775 yuan/ton, with a change of 54. The closing price of the September contract is 6,826 yuan/ton, with a change of 49. The trading volume is 282,260 lots, a decrease of 44,802 lots. The open interest is 512,614 lots, a decrease of 5,995 lots. The 1 - 5 spread is 64, a decrease of 3. The 5 - 9 spread is - 51, an increase of 5. The 9 - 1 spread is - 13, a decrease of 2. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 525,960 lots, an increase of 5,941 lots. The sell order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 551,343 lots, a decrease of 5,479 lots. The net buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions is - 25,383 lots, an increase of 11,420 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 6,681.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.57 yuan/ton. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in East China is 6,774.42 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.14 yuan/ton. The basis is - 93.7, a decrease of 73.57 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 64.45 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.53 US dollars/barrel. The CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 597.88 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.75 US dollars/ton. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 676 US dollars/ton, with no change. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is 696 US dollars/ton, with no change [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide is 85.91%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 38.82%, a decrease of 3.25 percentage points. The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) pipes is 23.67%, a decrease of 4.16 percentage points. The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) agricultural film is 30.18%, a decrease of 4.38 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 17.61%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points. The 40 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 17.25%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene is 15.79%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for polyethylene is 15.8%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points [2] Industry News - From January 30th to February 5th, China's total polyethylene production was 712,400 tons, a 0.91% increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 85.91%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points from the previous period. From January 30th to February 5th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 4.0% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 4.4% compared with the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging film decreased by 3.3% compared with the previous period. As of February 4th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 379,700 tons, a 17.55% increase from the previous week. As of February 6th, the social inventory of PE was 507,800 tons, a 4.70% increase from the previous week. From January 31st to February 6th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 2.46% month - on - month to 7,551 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 133 yuan/ton month - on - month to - 695 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.26% month - on - month to 6,512 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 51 yuan/ton month - on - month to 314 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of LLDPE are slightly bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Technically, for the daily K - line of L2605, pay attention to the support near 6780 and the resistance near 6955. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene is 6899 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the 1 - month contract closing price is 6947 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the 5 - month contract closing price is 6899 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the 9 - month contract closing price is 6930 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan. [2] - The trading volume is 496,965 lots, down 115,013 lots; the open interest is 520,760 lots, up 5,747 lots. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 48, up 9. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 510,998 lots, up 6,394 lots; the sell order volume is 533,068 lots, up 5,465 lots; the net buy order volume is - 22,070 lots, up 929 lots. [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 6,841.3 yuan/ton, down 21.3 yuan; in East China, it is 6,935.81 yuan/ton, up 7.21 yuan. The basis is - 57.7, up 14.69. [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle - price of naphtha in Singapore is 61.19 US dollars/barrel, up 0.92; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan is 573.25 US dollars/ton, up 8. [2] - The CFR middle - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 686 US dollars/ton, down 5; in Northeast Asia, it is 706 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 84.67%, up 3.08 percentage points. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 44.96%, down 3.19 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes is 29%, down 0.33 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 36.32%, down 0.61 percentage points. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 13.76%, down 0.01; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.96%, up 0.19. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene is 16.46%, up 1.06; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.46%, up 1.07. [2] Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, China's total polyethylene production was 698,900 tons, a 4.34% increase from last week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 84.67%, a 3.07 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. [2] - From January 16th to 22nd, the average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 1.4% from the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 0.6%, and the operating rate of PE packaging film decreased by 3.2%. [2] - As of January 21st, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 335,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from last week; the social inventory of PE was 477,400 tons, a 1.43% decrease from last week. [2] - From January 16th to 22nd, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.22% to 7,202 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 1 yuan/ton to - 530 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.54% to 6,524 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 27 yuan/ton to 244 yuan/ton. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report cautiously recommends a bullish view on L2605 in the plastic industry [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The upward driving force for plastics is limited from a fundamental perspective, and a cautious bullish view is taken on the future trend of L2605 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene is 6935 yuan/ton, with a 70-yuan increase; the 1-month contract is 6974 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; the 5-month contract is 6935 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the 9-month contract is 6962 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [2] - The trading volume is 611,978 lots, a decrease of 107,819 lots; the open interest is 515,013 lots, a decrease of 4,043 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 39, an increase of 18 [2] - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions for polyethylene is 504,604 lots, an increase of 882 lots; the sell order volume is 527,603 lots, an increase of 3,151 lots; the net buy order volume is -22,999 lots, a decrease of 2,269 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 6862.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 78.26 yuan; in East China, it is 6928.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 70.7 yuan [2] - The basis is -72.39, an increase of 8.26 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in the Singapore region is 60.27 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.01 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in the Japanese region is 565.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.75 US dollars [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 686 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars; in Northeast Asia, it is 706 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 84.67%, an increase of 3.08 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 44.96%, a decrease of 3.19 percentage points; for pipes, it is 29%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points; for agricultural films, it is 36.32%, a decrease of 0.61 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 13.76%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.96%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene is 15.4%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points; for at - the - money call options, it is 15.39%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, China's polyethylene production totaled 698,900 tons, a 4.34% increase from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 84.67%, an increase of 3.07 percentage points [2] - From January 16th to 22nd, the average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 1.4% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 0.6%, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 3.2% [2] - As of January 21st, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 335,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from the previous week; the social inventory of PE was 477,400 tons, a 1.43% decrease from the previous week [2] - From January 16th to 22nd, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.22% to 7202 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 1 yuan/ton to - 530 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.54% to 6524 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 27 yuan/ton to 244 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term L2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 6540 on the daily K - line [2][3] - PE production and capacity utilization are expected to increase this week, while the downstream agricultural film's operating rate may maintain a seasonal downward trend and the peak stocking period for packaging films has passed, with limited demand follow - up [2] - The cost of the oil - based process has risen and losses have deepened; the cost of the coal - based process has decreased and profits have expanded [2] - The international oil price may be disturbed by geopolitical factors due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices of polyethylene decreased, with the futures main - contract closing price at 6640 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the 1 - month contract closing price at 6706 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 5 - month contract closing price at 6640 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; and the 9 - month contract closing price at 6664 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 384,155 lots, down 27,783 lots, and the open interest was 495,272 lots, up 9,808 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was 66, up 13 [2] - The long positions, short positions, and net long positions of the top 20 futures holders were all 0, with the long positions down 457,479 lots, the short positions down 491,959 lots, and the net long positions up 34,480 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,693.91 yuan/ton, down 80.87 yuan, and in East China was 6,836.28 yuan/ton, down 88.14 yuan [2] - The basis was 53.91, down 53.87 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 58.13 US dollars/barrel, down 0.06 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 548.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 701 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 711 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 81.59%, down 2.07 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging films was 48.15%, down 0.81 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 29.33%, down 0.17 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural films was 36.93%, down 0.96 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 17.1%, up 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.81%, up 0.02 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.36%, down 1.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.32%, down 1.15 percentage points [2] Industry News - From January 9th to 15th, China's polyethylene production was 669,800 tons, a decrease of 2.47% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 81.6%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from the previous period [2] - From January 9th to 15th, the average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.3% compared with the previous period, among which the operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 1.0% and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.8% [2] - As of January 14th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 350,300 tons, a decrease of 11.41% from the previous week; as of January 9th, the social inventory of PE was 484,300 tons, a decrease of 0.11% from the previous week [2] - From January 9th to 15th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 4.29% to 7,217 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 531 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 2.57% to 6,559 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 183 yuan/ton to 217 yuan/ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - PE supply - demand drivers are not significant, and it is expected to fluctuate with oil prices in the short - term. Pay attention to the support around 6730 and the pressure around 6890 on the daily K - line [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) is 6820, up 54; 1 - month contract is 6655, up 105; 5 - month contract is 6820, up 54; 9 - month contract is 6855, up 53 [2]. - Volume (daily, lots) is 564,696, up 9,740; Open interest (daily, lots) is 466,526, down 10,862 [2]. - 1 - 5 spread is - 165, up 51; Futures top 20 long positions: polyethylene (daily, lots) is 436,624, up 209; Futures top 20 short positions: polyethylene (daily, lots) is 467,191, down 14,021; Futures top 20 net long positions: polyethylene (daily, lots) is - 30,567, up 14,230 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - LLDPE(7042) average price: North China (daily, yuan/ton) is 6,868.7, up 73.48; LLDPE(7042) average price: East China (daily, yuan/ton) is 6,971.4, up 126.98 [2]. - Basis is 48.7, up 19.48 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - FOB: Middle price: Naphtha: Singapore region (daily, US dollars/barrel) is 59.63, up 0.31; CFR: Middle price: Naphtha: Japan region (daily, US dollars/ton) is 561.25, up 3.25 [2]. - Ethylene: CFR Southeast Asia: Middle price (daily, US dollars/ton) is 711, unchanged; Ethylene: CFR Northeast Asia: Middle price (daily, US dollars/ton) is 731, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Operating rate: PE: Petrochemical: National (daily, %) is 83.67, up 0.43 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Operating rate: Polyethylene(PE): Packaging film (weekly, %) is 48.96, up 0.55; Operating rate: Polyethylene(PE): Pipes (weekly, %) is 29.5, down 0.67; Operating rate: Polyethylene(PE): Agricultural film (weekly, %) is 37.89, down 1.06 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility: Polyethylene (daily, %) is 16.65, down 0.61; 40 - day historical volatility: Polyethylene (daily, %) is 14.38, up 0.02 [2]. - At - the - money put option implied volatility: Polyethylene (daily, %) is 16.09, up 0.68; At - the - money call option implied volatility: Polyethylene (daily, %) is 16.09, up 0.69 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's polyethylene production was 686,800 tons, up 0.52% from last week; Polyethylene production enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points from the previous period [2]. - From January 2nd to 8th, PE downstream operating rate increased 0.1% week - on - week, with agricultural film operating rate down 1.1% and packaging film operating rate up 0.6% [2]. - As of January 7th, PE production enterprises' inventory was 395,400 tons, up 6.66% week - on - week; As of January 9th, PE social inventory was 484,300 tons, down 0.11% week - on - week [2]. - From January 3rd to 9th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased 0.56% to 6,920 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased 159 yuan/ton to - 472 yuan/ton; The cost of coal - based LLDPE increased 0.50% to 6,397 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased 97 yuan/ton to 34 yuan/ton [2]. - Last week, Maoming Petrochemical's 110,000 - ton and Yangzi Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton plants stopped, while Zhanjiang BASF's 500,000 - ton plant restarted, leading to a slight increase in PE production [2]. - This week, Lanzhou Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton plant is under maintenance, and Guangdong Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton plant had a short - term stop, and the impact of some previously stopped plants has expanded, so PE production and capacity utilization are expected to decline [2].