增加临停装置以缓解供应压力，关注检修动态。农膜需求淡季，开工率维持下降趋势；包装膜需求跟进有 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 塑料产业日报 2026-01-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6642 | 63 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6430 | 101 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6642 | 63 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6687 | 69 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 566498 | 108635 持仓量(日,手) | 505678 | -2207 | | | 1-5价差 | -212 | 38 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 430624 | -1454 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 496022 | 6601 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -65398 ...

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 产能计划投放，供应压力呈上升趋势。棚膜需求即将季节性回落，包装膜需求跟进有限，下游开工率预计 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 边际走弱。成本方面，国际油价现实端供强于需持续，地缘方面俄乌、美委局势仍存不确定性，市场预期 美联储12月降息概率提升，国际油价多空博弈。短期L2601预计震荡走势，日度K线关注6750附近支撑与68 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 70附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 塑料产业日报 2025-12-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6803 | 14 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The L2601 contract of polyethylene fell 1.31% to close at 6,707 yuan/ton. Last week, the impact of Zhongtianhechuang's shutdown continued, and new maintenance units were added in Wanhua Chemical, Zhongying Petrochemical, and Jilin Petrochemical, leading to a decline in PE production and capacity utilization. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, with a slight decline in the agricultural film operating rate and a small increase in the packaging film operating rate. Factory and social inventories decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was not significant. Oil - based and coal - based profits remained in a theoretical loss state. This week, the Shanghai Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical units are planned for maintenance, while the Zhongying Petrochemical, Zhongtianhechuang, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical units are scheduled to restart, so PE production and capacity utilization are expected to increase month - on - month, with relatively high supply. The demand center of greenhouse films has shifted south, and southern orders support the high operating rate of agricultural film enterprises; the orders for packaging films have decreased, and the operating rate is expected to decline. In terms of cost, due to statements from US and Ukrainian officials indicating that Ukraine has in principle agreed to the peace agreement proposed by the US, international oil prices closed lower yesterday. In the short term, the situation of supply exceeding demand for LLDPE may continue, with limited cost - side support, and L2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 6,680 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6,707 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the 1 - month contract closed at 6,707 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the 5 - month contract closed at 6,768 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; the 9 - month contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan. The trading volume was 396,126 lots, an increase of 148,413 lots, and the open interest was 497,599 lots, an increase of 9,240 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 61, down 3. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 517,178 lots, an increase of 15,973 lots; the short positions were 619,508 lots, an increase of 23,786 lots; the net long positions were - 102,330 lots, a decrease of 7,813 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,865.22 yuan/ton, down 22.17 yuan; in East China, it was 7,092.38 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The basis was 158.22, an increase of 32.83 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.16 US dollars/barrel, down 0.27 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 560.88 US dollars/ton, down 1.75 US dollars. The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 721 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 731 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 82.71%, down 0.42 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging films was 50.93%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points; for pipes, it was 32%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; for agricultural films, it was 49.91%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 8.45%, down 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.87%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 13.24%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 14th to 20th, China's total polyethylene production was 670,300 tons, a decrease of 0.51% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 82.71%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from the previous period. The average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.2% from the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 0.1% from the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging films increased by 0.5% from the previous period. As of November 26th, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 454,000 tons, a decrease of 9.80% from the previous period; as of November 21st, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 471,100 tons, a decrease of 3.05% from the previous period. From November 15th to 21st, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 0.41% month - on - month to 7,285 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 3.86 yuan/ton to - 409.71 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.06% month - on - month to 7,047 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 75.57 yuan/ton to - 107 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Short - term L2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 6720 on the daily K - line. PE supply pressure is high, demand is weakening, and the valuation is difficult to repair under the background of low LLDPE oil - and coal - based profits [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) is 6788, up 28; 1 - 5 spread is - 76, up 5; trading volume (daily, lots) is 186004, down 5446; open interest (daily, lots) is 586919, up 2586; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of polyethylene (daily, lots) is - 93396, down 2692 [2] Spot Market - LLDPE(7042) average price in North China (daily, yuan/ton) is 6893.48, up 1.74; in East China is 7102.86, up 0.71; the basis is 105.48, down 26.26 [2] Upstream Situation - FOB: middle price: naphtha: Singapore region (daily, US dollars/barrel) is 62.26, down 0.57; CFR: middle price: naphtha: Japan region (daily, US dollars/ton) is 576.75, down 5.5; ethylene: CFR Southeast Asia: middle price (daily, US dollars/ton) is 731, unchanged; ethylene: CFR Northeast Asia: middle price (daily, US dollars/ton) is 741, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate (daily, %) is 82.59, up 1.72 [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film (weekly, %) is 50.78, down 0.52; of PE pipes (weekly, %) is 31.67, down 0.5; of PE agricultural film (weekly, %) is 49.96, up 0.43 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene (daily, %) is 8.96, up 0.2; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.47, up 0.12; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of polyethylene (daily, %) is 10.46, down 1.35; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is also 10.46, down 1.35 [2] Industry News - From October 31 to November 6, PE weekly output increased by 2.67% to 66.07 tons, and capacity utilization increased by 1.72% to 82.59%. PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.51%, with agricultural film operating rate up 0.44% and packaging film operating rate down 0.52%. As of November 7, PE social inventory was 50.01 tons, down 1.86%; as of November 12, PE production enterprise inventory was 52.92 tons, up 7.96%. From November 1 to 7, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.83% to 7328 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 10.43 yuan/ton to - 370.43 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.57% to 6884 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 158.86 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Plastic Industry Daily Report (2025-09-23) [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558) - Assistant Researcher: Xu Tianze (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03133092) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - L2601 fluctuated weakly and closed at 7,105 yuan/ton. Affected by the restart of plants such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Zhongying Petrochemical, last week's PE production and capacity utilization increased month-on-month. Downstream demand recovered seasonally, driving the downstream PE operating rate to rise month-on-month. Producer inventories increased slightly, while social inventories decreased month-on-month, and the overall inventory pressure was not significant. This week, only Baolai's 350,000-ton high-density plant was newly added, and the restart of plants such as Yulong, Guoneng Xinjiang, and Jinhai Chemical is expected to increase PE production and capacity utilization month-on-month. ExxonMobil's 500,000-ton low-density plant is expected to be put into production within the month, increasing medium- to long-term industry supply pressure. The greenhouse film market has entered the peak season, with continuous recovery in agricultural film orders; packaging film orders still have room for growth driven by domestic Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, daily chemical, and gift packaging demands. With the approaching long holiday, downstream stocking demand is being released. In terms of costs, the continuous impact of OPEC+ production increases and the medium- to long-term expectation of global crude oil supply exceeding demand have put some pressure on oil prices, although short-term geopolitical situations remain uncertain. The LLDPE supply-demand game has led the market to continuously decline to a relatively low valuation level, and the decline is expected to slow down and gradually stop in the future [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7,105, down 25; 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7,105, down 25; 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7,145, down 42; 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7,193, down 36 [3]. - 成交量(日,手) was 180,643, down 30,320; 持仓量(日,手) was 589,676, up 8,837 [3]. - 9-1价差 was 81, down 11 [3]. - 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) was 429,337, up 6,635; 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) was 488,033, up 9,642; 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) was -58,696, down 3,007 [3]. Spot Market - LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) was 7,193.48, down 19.57; LLDPE(7042)均价:华东(日,元/吨) was 7,318.81, down 8.1 [3]. - 基差 was 63.48, up 19.44 [3]. Upstream Situation - FOB:中间价:石脑油:新加坡地区(日,美元/桶) was 64.23, down 0.28; CFR:中间价:石脑油:日本地区(日,美元/吨) was 595.63, down 1.12 [3]. - 乙烯:CFR东南亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) was 841, unchanged; 乙烯:CFR东北亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) was 846, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - 开工率:PE:石化:全国(日,%) was 80.36, up 2.32 [3]. Downstream Situation - 开工率:聚乙烯(PE):包装膜(周,%) was 51.78, up 0.48; 开工率:聚乙烯(PE):管材(周,%) was 31.83, up 0.16; 开工率:聚乙烯(PE):农膜(周,%) was 26.75, up 2.63 [3]. Option Market - 历史波动率:20日:聚乙烯(日,%) was 6.55, up 1.61; 历史波动率:40日:聚乙烯(日,%) was 6.17, up 0.13 [3]. - 平值看跌期权隐含波动率:聚乙烯(日,%) was 10.26, up 0.05; 平值看涨期权隐含波动率:聚乙烯(日,%) was 10.27, up 0.07 [3]. Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, China's weekly PE production increased by 2.97% month-on-month to 631,000 tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 2.23% month-on-month to 80.36% [3]. - From September 12th to 18th, the average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.8% month-on-month, with the agricultural film operating rate increasing by 2.6% month-on-month [3]. - As of September 17th, the inventory of PE producers was 490,300 tons, up 0.68% from the previous period; as of September 19th, the PE social inventory was 534,800 tons, down 2.17% from the previous period [3]. - As of September 19th, the cost of oil-based LLDPE increased by 1.24% week-on-week to 7,550 yuan/ton, and the oil-based profit decreased by 93 yuan/ton week-on-week to -300 yuan/ton; the cost of coal-based LLDPE increased by 0.52% week-on-week to 6,308 yuan/ton, and the coal-based profit decreased by 37 yuan/ton week-on-week to 893 yuan/ton [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Total inventory pressure is not significant, with production enterprise inventory increasing by 0.68% to 49.03 million tons and social inventory decreasing by 2.44% to 54.66 million tons [2] - This week, devices such as Jinghai Chemical and Guoneng Xinjiang will restart, and new maintenance devices are planned for Jilin Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical. Production and capacity utilization are expected to increase month - on - month [2] - The expected increase in the loss of PE device maintenance in September, but considering the expected commissioning of ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE device, the industry's supply pressure is difficult to improve [2] - The shed film enters the peak season, and the orders for agricultural films are rising sharply; the demand for packaging films is driven by domestic Mid - Autumn Festival, National Day, and overseas Christmas stocking, and orders still have room for growth [2] - Recently, international oil prices have strengthened due to geopolitical conflict support. In terms of the macro - environment, the talks between China, the US, and Spain have progressed smoothly, and a new round of key - industry growth - stabilizing policies in China are about to be introduced [2] - Technically, for the daily K - line of L2601, pay attention to the support around 7220 and the pressure around 7295 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene is 7245 yuan/ton, with a change of 11; the 1 - month contract closing price is 7245 yuan/ton, with a change of 11; the 5 - month contract closing price is 7289 yuan/ton, with a change of 14; the 9 - month contract closing price is 7299 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 [2] - The trading volume is 146,481 hands, a decrease of 109,562 hands; the open interest is 520,256 hands, a decrease of 3,820 hands [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is 54, a decrease of 21; the long position of the top 20 futures holders is 376,996 hands, a decrease of 917 hands; the short position is 434,704 hands, an increase of 3,546 hands; the net long position is - 57,708 hands, a decrease of 4,463 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7248.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87; in East China, it is 7345.24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48 [2] - The basis is 3.7, a decrease of 11.87 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 65.44 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.13; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 604.88 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.62 [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it is 851 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 78.04%, a decrease of 2.51 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film is 51.3%, an increase of 0.82 percentage points; for pipes, it is 31.67%, an increase of 1.34 percentage points; for agricultural films, it is 24.12%, an increase of 3.94 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 6.35%, a decrease of 0.38; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.11%, a decrease of 0.22 [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene is 10.07%, a decrease of 0.12; for at - the - money call options, it is 10.05%, a decrease of 0.14 [2] 3.7 Industry News - From September 5th to 11th, China's total polyethylene production was 612,800 tons, a decrease of 3.12% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 78.04%, a decrease of 2.51 percentage points from the previous period [2] - From September 5th to 11th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 1.1% compared with the previous period [2] - As of September 17th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 490,300 tons, an increase of 0.68% from the previous period; as of September 12th, the inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 546,600 tons, a decrease of 2.44% from the previous period [2]

Core Points - Otto Röhm, the founder of Röhm Group, has been posthumously inducted into the Plastics Hall of Fame, recognizing his significant contributions to the international plastics industry [1] - The induction ceremony will take place on October 7, 2025, prior to the K Fair in Düsseldorf, Germany [1] - Röhm's leadership in the development of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), also known as acrylic, is highlighted as a major milestone in chemical history [1][2] Company Overview - Röhm Group was founded in 1907 by Otto Röhm and businessman Otto Haas, originally as Röhm & Haas [1] - The company has a strong legacy in plastics research, with a focus on innovation that continues to influence its corporate culture [1] - PMMA, developed in the 1930s by Röhm and his research team, remains a registered trademark of Röhm and is a versatile material used across various industries [1][2] Industry Impact - Acrylic, as a multifunctional material, continues to drive technological advancements in multiple sectors, including construction, automotive engineering, industrial design, and medical technology [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory pressure of polyethylene is not significant. In July, the PE maintenance plan was basically fulfilled, and there will be fewer maintenance devices in the future. With the restart of previously shut - down devices, there is room for improvement in production and capacity utilization. Although the commissioning of new devices by ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical has been postponed, the commissioning pressure in the third quarter remains high. The seasonal demand for downstream shed films is rising, but most enterprises still have dull orders. The demand for daily chemical and food packaging films continues. It is expected that the inflection point of the downstream operating rate will arrive in early August. The international oil price is expected to show an oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the latest progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations in the future. The daily K - line of L2509 should focus on the support around 7300 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for polyethylene decreased, with the main contract closing at 7335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121 yuan. The trading volume increased by 11132 hands to 388896 hands, while the open interest decreased by 20147 hands to 346401 hands. The 1 - 5 month contract spread decreased by 6 to 5. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreased by 3941 hands to - 23846 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China and East China increased, with the North China average price at 7350.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 73.04 yuan, and the East China average price at 7412.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.81 yuan. The basis increased by 2.04 to - 105.57 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore and the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan increased, with the Singapore price at 62.01 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.58 US dollars, and the Japan price at 580.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.37 US dollars. The middle prices of ethylene CFR Southeast Asia and CFR Northeast Asia remained unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate increased by 0.76 percentage points to 78.97% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging films decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 48.07%, the operating rate of polyethylene pipes remained unchanged at 28.83%, and the operating rate of polyethylene agricultural films increased by 0.17 percentage points to 12.63% [2] Option Market - The historical volatility and implied volatility of polyethylene options increased. The 20 - day historical volatility increased by 1.48 percentage points to 12.05%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.49 percentage points to 13.39%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options increased by 0.28 percentage points to 13.24% and 13.23% respectively [2] Industry News - From July 18th to 24th, China's total polyethylene production was 61.51 million tons, a 0.99% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 79.83%, a 1.13 - percentage - point increase. The average operating rate of Chinese polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.1% from the previous period. As of July 23rd, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 50.29 million tons, a 4.99% decrease from the previous period. As of July 25th, the sample inventory of polyethylene social warehouses was 56.17 million tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous period [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a cautious bearish view on the plastics industry, suggesting to pay attention to the support around 6980 [2] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the industry supply pressure is not significant due to frequent shutdowns and restarts of plants; in the medium - to - long - term, there is an expected increase in supply as the marginal loss of maintenance weakens. The downstream demand is in the off - season and is difficult to improve significantly, although pre - holiday packaging demand is released and packaging film orders increase slightly while pipe orders decline slightly. The cost is affected by factors such as OPEC+ production increase and the postponement of US - EU tariff negotiations, and the plastics fundamentals are weak. However, the 09 contract has a discounted price on the disk, so a cautious bearish view is taken [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices of polyethylene contracts all decreased, with the main contract closing at 7007 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan; the 1 - month contract at 6979 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 5 - month contract at 6986 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; and the 9 - month contract at 7007 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan. The trading volume was 360383 lots, an increase of 30078 lots, and the open interest was 527221 lots, an increase of 13567 lots. The 1 - 5 month contract spread was - 7, down 18. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 85471 lots, a decrease of 11546 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7260 yuan/ton, down 35.65 yuan; in East China, it was 7446.34 yuan/ton, down 25.12 yuan. The basis was 180, down 30.65 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.11 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.67 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 566.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.75 US dollars. The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 851 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 781 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 77.95%, a decrease of 1.57 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 49.19%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points; the operating rate of polyethylene pipes was 32%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the operating rate of polyethylene agricultural film was 14.05%, a decrease of 2.63 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.75%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.68%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 12.95%, an increase of 1.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 12.94%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From May 16th to 22nd, China's polyethylene production was 59.80 tons, a decrease of 1.98% compared to the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.95%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.13% compared to the previous period. As of May 21st, the sample inventory of polyethylene production enterprises was 49.84 tons, a decrease of 5.57% compared to the previous period; as of May 16th, the sample inventory of polyethylene social warehouses was 61.06 tons, a decrease of 1.15% compared to the previous period [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - L2509 opened with a gap down and fluctuated weakly, with the disk price dropping to 6,987 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, the weekly PE output increased by 1.35% to 651,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.06% to 83.75%. PE consumption entered the off - season, and the average operating rate of downstream products decreased by 1.32%, with the agricultural film operating rate decreasing by 2.70%. Before the holiday, producers and traders actively reduced inventory. Producer inventory decreased by 21.31% to 41,400 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.97% to 59,980 tons, with little inventory pressure. In May, two sets of equipment of Shandong New Era may be put into production, and industry - wide maintenance will start from the middle and late ten - days. Supply pressure is expected to be high in the front and low in the back. The US tariff policy shows no sign of relief, and the export of downstream products continues to be affected; domestic tariff counter - measures support the import prices of ethane and plastics. OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increase, and international oil prices dropped significantly during the holiday. In the short term, L2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6,987 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6,921 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 7,230 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 6,987 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan. The trading volume was 296,850 lots, an increase of 65,638 lots, and the open interest was 533,039 lots, an increase of 54,365 lots. The spread between the January and May contracts was - 309 yuan, down 58 yuan. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 363,263 lots, an increase of 41,625 lots; the short position was 445,697 lots, an increase of 43,192 lots; the net long position was - 82,434 lots, a decrease of 1,567 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,389.55 yuan/ton, down 31.36 yuan; in East China, it was 7,370.49 yuan/ton, down 42.44 yuan. The basis was 402.55 yuan, an increase of 64.64 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 59.42 US dollars/barrel, down 1.64 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 546.25 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 871 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 791 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 83.75%, down 0.06 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) in packaging film was 47.85%, down 0.96 percentage points; in pipes, it was 31.83%, unchanged; in agricultural film, it was 23.39%, down 2.7 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 21.97%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.51%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.37%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 13.33%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points [2] Industry News - From April 25th to May 1st, China's total polyethylene output was 651,100 tons, an increase of 1.35% from the previous week; from April 18th to 24th, China's polyethylene capacity utilization rate was 83.75%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous period. From April 25th to 30th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 1.32% from the previous period. As of April 29th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 41,400 tons, a decrease of 21.31% from the previous period; as of April 25th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 59,980 tons, a decrease of 0.97% from the previous period [2]