碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报 （一）碳酸锂 市场走势：今日碳酸锂期货宽幅震荡运行，主力 2605 合约较上 一交易日收盘价下跌 1.09%，报 143420 元/吨。 核心逻辑：近期交易逻辑主要有两个：一是下游磷酸铁锂确认提 价，下游价格传导顺畅；二是委内瑞拉地缘政治局势突变，引发市场 对南美锂资源供应稳定性的担忧。 1、后续关注交易所监管是否介入； 基本面来看，今日碳酸锂周度产量与库存数据公布，产量增加 115 吨，累库 337 吨。但从碳酸锂各环节库存结构来看，出现了贸易 商锁库存的现象，当前冶炼厂和下游库存都处于年内低位，其中冶炼 厂库存更来到了近三年低点。 技术面分析：今日碳酸锂期货从整体资金情绪角度来看，仍是多 头控盘。不过近期持仓量有下降态势，需警惕多头获利平仓风险。当 前碳酸锂主力 2605 合约 5 分钟级别周期为红线蓝带红阶梯。隔夜 2 小时级别周期仍是红色阶梯线偏强，多空分水位 121580 元/吨。 策略建议：在"强现实，强预期"的大背景下，操作上仍以逢低 多为主。但是不要直接追高，日内依据"首 K 突破法"或"三线共振 法"寻找好的入场位置，具体操作可以听 8:30 的早直播。 后续关注 ...

年度报告——锰硅/硅铁 产能过剩未解，成本博弈深化 | . | | --- | | 走势评级: | [★Ta锰bl硅e_：Su产mm能a持ry]续投放，成本支撑弱化 黑 色 供应方面，硅锰行业虽整体延续产能过剩格局，但由于电力在生产成 本中占比显著，内蒙古等西北低电价区域仍具备明显的成本优势，推 动该地区新增产能继续释放，供应呈逐步增加态势。根据钢联统计， 2026 年计划投产规模约 286.32 万吨，预计全年硅锰供应仍将保持增量。 成本方面，2026 年锰矿供应增量主要来自 South32 上半年产量的同比 恢复，但矿山端挺价意愿较强，若价格下行可能引发部分供应收缩， 因此成本端的下行压力更多来自电价。电价方面，在新能源装机增长、 电力结构优化的背景下，2026 年电价预计仍有下调空间。需求方面， 2026 年建材需求虽仍处于下行通道，因此在建材终端需求尚未扭转跌 势的背景下，预计硅锰需求将同步承压。 金 ★硅铁：供应持续增加，需求难支撑 属 供应方面，硅铁与硅锰行业相似，在产能明显过剩的背景下，新增产 能仍在向成本优势地区集中投放。根据钢联统计，预计 2026 年硅铁新 增产能约 103.8 万吨，多数 ...

本周聚酯瓶片价格先扬后抑，华东市场均价较上期上涨1.08%。波动核心系成本端多空博弈：前半周地 缘溢价与PTA去库支撑涨价，后半周原油累库及调油预期落空致成本支撑转弱。供应宽松、库存承压， 需求疲软下下游谨慎观望，交投低迷。展望下周，成本端震荡、PTA供需平稳，供应充裕且新增产能压 力仍在，需求处传统淡季难有放量。预计瓶片价格在5700-5850元/吨区间弱势盘整，市场维持谨慎观 望。 本文源自：卓创资讯 ...

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 产能计划投放，供应压力呈上升趋势。棚膜需求即将季节性回落，包装膜需求跟进有限，下游开工率预计 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 边际走弱。成本方面，国际油价现实端供强于需持续，地缘方面俄乌、美委局势仍存不确定性，市场预期 美联储12月降息概率提升，国际油价多空博弈。短期L2601预计震荡走势，日度K线关注6750附近支撑与68 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 70附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 塑料产业日报 2025-12-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6803 | 14 ...

Core Insights - The condiment industry is experiencing a significant divergence in performance, with some companies thriving while others struggle to survive [1] Revenue Performance - In the first half of 2025, 22 listed condiment companies reported a total revenue of 704.94 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.46% year-on-year [5] - 12 companies achieved revenue growth, while 10 experienced declines [3] - Leading companies include: - Haitian Flavor Industry: 15.23 billion yuan, up 7.59% [2] - Fufeng Group: 13.96 billion yuan, up 4.40% [2] - Meihua Biological: 12.28 billion yuan, down 2.87% [2] - Lianhua Holdings led in revenue growth rate at 32.68%, followed by Hengshun Vinegar (12.03%) and Angel Yeast (10.10%) [3] Profit Performance - The total net profit for the 22 companies reached 10.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.43% [5] - 13 companies reported profit growth, while 9 saw declines [5] - Top performers in net profit include: - Haitian Flavor Industry: 3.91 billion yuan, up 13.35% [4] - Fufeng Group: 1.79 billion yuan, up 72.10% [4] - Meihua Biological: 1.77 billion yuan, up 19.96% [4] - Fufeng Group had the highest net profit growth rate at 72.1%, followed by Lianhua Holdings (60.01%) and Anji Food (58.61%) [5] Industry Trends - The industry is witnessing a shift towards health-oriented products, with companies focusing on "reduced salt" and organic offerings [7] - Companies like Hengshun Vinegar and Jiajia Foods are successfully implementing health strategies to improve performance [9] Channel Transformation - The industry is undergoing a channel transformation, with a focus on optimizing distribution strategies [10] - Online channels are growing rapidly, with Haitian Flavor Industry reporting online revenue of 842 million yuan, up 38.97% [12] - Customization for the restaurant sector is emerging as a new growth area, with companies like Rich Chen achieving revenue growth through tailored solutions [12] Cost Management - Fluctuations in raw material costs are challenging companies, but some are managing to reduce costs effectively [13] - Companies like Meihua Biological have benefited from lower raw material prices, leading to profit growth [15] Global Expansion - Internationalization is becoming essential for condiment companies, with many accelerating their global strategies [16] - Haitian Flavor Industry has made significant strides in international markets, including a successful listing in Hong Kong [16] - Companies like Meihua Biological and Jiangyan Group are also expanding their global footprint through acquisitions and exports [18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][39]. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a slight increase, with the agricultural index rising by 0.91%, ranking 20th among 31 primary industries [5][12]. - The pig market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to a continuous decline in prices, with the average price of pigs at 14.17 CNY/kg as of June 8, 2025, down 0.64% from the previous week [6][16]. - The white feather chicken market is experiencing stable yet slight adjustments in prices, with chick prices at 2.90 CNY/chick and meat chicken prices at 3.60 CNY/jin, both showing a decline [30][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector has rebounded, with the agricultural index increasing by 0.91%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13% [12]. - Among sub-sectors, planting and agricultural product processing led the gains, while meat chicken breeding and animal vaccine sectors faced significant adjustments [13][14]. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - The pig price is under pressure, with a continued downward trend expected due to strong supply and weak demand [6][19]. - As of June 6, 2025, self-breeding pigs have a profit of approximately 33 CNY per head, while purchased piglets incur a loss of 121 CNY per head [17][20]. - The breeding stock remains stable, with the number of breeding sows fluctuating between 40-41 million, indicating controlled supply growth for 2025 [19][29]. White Feather Chicken - Chick prices are experiencing slight adjustments, with a focus on domestic breeding due to uncertainties in imports caused by avian influenza outbreaks [30][31]. - The industry is currently well-supplied, and domestic breeding enterprises may benefit from reduced overseas imports [30][31]. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted downwards, with white sugar priced at 6090 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY from the previous week [33]. - Soybean prices have seen a slight increase, with the Brazilian soybean landed price at 3725 CNY/ton, up 1.8% [33]. - Corn prices have shown minor fluctuations, with an average price of 2336 CNY/ton, up 4 CNY from the previous week [33].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][35] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight decline of 0.36%, ranking 15th among 31 primary industries in the market [4][12] - The pig price has been weak, with an average price of 14.46 CNY/kg as of May 23, 2025, down 1.12% from the previous week [5][16] - The supply pressure in the pig market is increasing due to high historical weights of pigs being marketed and a stable breeding sow inventory [5][18] - The profitability of self-bred pigs is around 48 CNY per head, which has decreased by 32 CNY per head compared to the previous week [17][19] - The white feather chicken market is stable, with chick prices at 3.00 CNY per chick and a slight increase in meat chicken prices [27][28] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The agricultural sector index has decreased by 0.36%, with the overall market indices also showing declines [12][14] - The performance of sub-sectors varies, with the pet sector showing resilience while meat chicken and seed sectors have faced more significant adjustments [13] 2. Livestock Industry Tracking 2.1 Pigs - The average pig price is 14.46 CNY/kg, reflecting a downward trend since mid-May [5][16] - Supply pressures are attributed to high weights of marketed pigs and a stable breeding sow inventory [5][18] - Profit margins for self-bred pigs are decreasing, while external pig purchases are currently unprofitable [17][19] 2.2 White Feather Chicken - Chick prices remain stable, with a slight increase in meat chicken prices [27][28] - The industry is observing a shift towards domestic breeding due to uncertainties in imports caused by avian influenza outbreaks [27][28] 3. Planting Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have shown a slight decline, while soybean prices have increased by 2.1% [30] - Cotton prices have risen slightly, and corn prices have remained stable with minor fluctuations [30][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a significant rebound in the agricultural sector, with the agricultural index rising by 2.84%, ranking 8th among 31 primary industries [4][12] - The report highlights a stalemate in the supply-demand dynamics of live pigs, while the price of white chickens is rebounding [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index stands at 2556.61, with a 52-week high of 2927.53 and a low of 2110.64 [2] - The relative performance of the agricultural index shows a decline of 19% [2] Livestock Industry Tracking Live Pigs - The average price of live pigs is 14.52 yuan/kg, remaining stable compared to the previous week [5][18] - The report notes that the supply of pigs is ample, with producers actively selling due to low price expectations [5][21] - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost advantages, recommending leading firms such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as smaller firms like Juxing Agriculture and Huatong Foods [21] White Chickens - The price of white feather chicken chicks has increased to 3.0 yuan/chick, with an average profit of 0.2 yuan per chick [6][28] - The price of meat chickens has risen to 3.62 yuan/kg, reflecting an increase of 8.7% [6][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic breeding and notes that the supply chain remains robust despite some fluctuations [29] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have surged to 6130 yuan/ton, increasing by 90 yuan/ton [32] - The price of soybeans has slightly decreased to 3624 yuan/ton, down by 1.8% [34] - Cotton prices have shown minor fluctuations, currently at 14924 yuan/ton, up by 0.31% [34] - Corn prices have increased slightly to 2198 yuan/ton, up by 32 yuan/ton [34]