曾被炒至天价的Labubu盲盒，如今二手价出现大幅回落。 近期，泡泡玛特业绩强劲。10月21日，公司发布的公告显示，2025年第三季度整体收入同比增长245% 至250%。其中，中国收入同比增长185%至190%；海外收入同比增长365%至370%。 8月26日，泡泡玛特股价创下339.8港元历史新高，总市值突破4200亿港元，随后价格出现回落，截至12 月29日，公司报199.90港元/股，股价下跌了0.15%。 得物APP数据显示，Labubu前方高能盲盒的近30日平均成交均价为117.17元，该款产品的价格曾经在12 月16日的时候达到过130.76元的近期高点，但随后价格整体处于回落趋势之中。 6月18日深夜，泡泡玛特突然启动全渠道补货，第三代"前方高能"系列首次开放最长至9月底的线上预 售，天猫、京东、抖音直播间同步放量。官方透露，仅天猫旗舰店就售出70余万只，全渠道补货量预估 400万—500万只，对应销售额约4亿—5亿元。 摩根士丹利报告指出，泡泡玛特正在从过去两年的"爆发式增长"阶段，过渡到未来的"可持续增长"阶 段。该机构预测泡泡玛特2026年Labubu的收入增速将显著放缓，增长引擎将由单 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 321.9 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's H1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue growth projected to be at least 200%, corresponding to revenue of at least HKD 13.67 billion. The group's profit growth is expected to be at least 350%, corresponding to a profit of at least HKD 4.34 billion, with a profit margin of approximately 31.7%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - The report highlights the ongoing enhancement of brand momentum and the successful expansion of the IP ecosystem, with new product launches receiving positive market feedback [2][8]. - The company is expected to continue its impressive performance in the domestic market while expanding its presence in overseas markets, supported by the influence of celebrity endorsements [2][8]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is HKD 13.04 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 105.5%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach HKD 30.05 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 130.5% [4][9]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is HKD 3.13 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 188.8%. By 2025, net profit is expected to increase to HKD 9.38 billion, with a growth rate of 200.1% [4][9]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS), projected at HKD 2.33 for 2024, rising to HKD 6.98 in 2025 [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the skyrocketing popularity and market dynamics of Labubu, a character from Pop Mart, highlighting the extreme price inflation of its merchandise and the unpredictability of its market value [1][15][18]. Group 1: Event and Market Reaction - A themed pop-up event for Labubu in Chengdu saw its reservation tickets sell out instantly, with scalpers reselling them for 500 yuan, a staggering 50,000 times the original price of 0.01 yuan [1][2][3]. - The previous pop-up event in Shanghai also experienced overwhelming demand, leading to many fans missing out on reservations [3]. Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Scalping Issues - Many consumers expressed discontent with scalping practices on social media, calling for stronger anti-scalping measures from the official organizers, such as real-name registration and facial recognition [8]. - Labubu merchandise, such as a rubber hanging ornament originally priced at 199 yuan, is being resold for over 1,000 yuan on secondary markets [8]. Group 3: Auction Prices and Historical Context - At an auction, a rare mint green Labubu sold for 1.08 million yuan, while a limited edition brown Labubu fetched 820,000 yuan [11]. - A previous owner of two Labubu figures sold them for over 300,000 yuan after initially purchasing them for just over 100,000 yuan, indicating significant price appreciation [12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Uncertainty - The article notes that the rise and fall of IPs like Labubu are unpredictable, with no clear patterns to forecast their popularity [15][17]. - The market for collectible toys often experiences volatility, with past trends showing that once-popular items can lose value significantly over time [18].