Group 1 - The resale prices of Labubu blind boxes have significantly declined after initially soaring to high levels, with prices dropping from over 4600 yuan to around 260 yuan [1] - The fourth generation mini Labubu followed a similar trend, with initial resale prices reaching 1600 yuan and hidden variants nearing 800 yuan, but later falling to an average of 264 yuan for hidden variants and 1077 yuan for whole boxes by late December [1] - Recent data from the Dewu APP indicates that the average transaction price for the Labubu blind box over the past 30 days was 117.17 yuan, with a peak of 130.76 yuan on December 16, followed by a downward trend [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Pop Mart is transitioning from a phase of explosive growth to a phase of sustainable growth, predicting a significant slowdown in revenue growth for Labubu by 2026, shifting from a single blockbuster to diversified drivers beyond Labubu IP [2] - Pop Mart reported strong performance, with a 245% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, including a 185%-190% increase in China and a 365%-370% increase overseas [2] - The company's stock reached a historical high of 339.8 HKD, with a market capitalization exceeding 420 billion HKD, but has since declined to 199.90 HKD per share as of December 29, reflecting a decrease of 0.15% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 321.9 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's H1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue growth projected to be at least 200%, corresponding to revenue of at least HKD 13.67 billion. The group's profit growth is expected to be at least 350%, corresponding to a profit of at least HKD 4.34 billion, with a profit margin of approximately 31.7%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - The report highlights the ongoing enhancement of brand momentum and the successful expansion of the IP ecosystem, with new product launches receiving positive market feedback [2][8]. - The company is expected to continue its impressive performance in the domestic market while expanding its presence in overseas markets, supported by the influence of celebrity endorsements [2][8]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is HKD 13.04 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 105.5%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach HKD 30.05 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 130.5% [4][9]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is HKD 3.13 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 188.8%. By 2025, net profit is expected to increase to HKD 9.38 billion, with a growth rate of 200.1% [4][9]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS), projected at HKD 2.33 for 2024, rising to HKD 6.98 in 2025 [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the skyrocketing popularity and market dynamics of Labubu, a character from Pop Mart, highlighting the extreme price inflation of its merchandise and the unpredictability of its market value [1][15][18]. Group 1: Event and Market Reaction - A themed pop-up event for Labubu in Chengdu saw its reservation tickets sell out instantly, with scalpers reselling them for 500 yuan, a staggering 50,000 times the original price of 0.01 yuan [1][2][3]. - The previous pop-up event in Shanghai also experienced overwhelming demand, leading to many fans missing out on reservations [3]. Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Scalping Issues - Many consumers expressed discontent with scalping practices on social media, calling for stronger anti-scalping measures from the official organizers, such as real-name registration and facial recognition [8]. - Labubu merchandise, such as a rubber hanging ornament originally priced at 199 yuan, is being resold for over 1,000 yuan on secondary markets [8]. Group 3: Auction Prices and Historical Context - At an auction, a rare mint green Labubu sold for 1.08 million yuan, while a limited edition brown Labubu fetched 820,000 yuan [11]. - A previous owner of two Labubu figures sold them for over 300,000 yuan after initially purchasing them for just over 100,000 yuan, indicating significant price appreciation [12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Uncertainty - The article notes that the rise and fall of IPs like Labubu are unpredictable, with no clear patterns to forecast their popularity [15][17]. - The market for collectible toys often experiences volatility, with past trends showing that once-popular items can lose value significantly over time [18].