上市至2022 年股价调整期：商业模式难题和企业韧性。1）2020/12 上市-2022/6，公司收入保持高增， 但成长股估值系统性调整、市场对公司长期发展信心不足叠加盈利指标恶化，导致公司股价下跌。2） 2022/7~2022/10：公司业绩承压，盲盒退潮成市场主流叙事，此阶段股价明显跑输港股大盘。我们认为 公司此阶段业务和估值变化既体现了形象型IP 商业模式中的经典难题（需求变迁、审美疲劳以及创新 的不确定性对形象型IP 需求持续性的影响；自营模式库存管理能力），同时又体现公司较强的组织韧 性和执行力（组织架构调整，系统性提升供应链能力等），并为2024 年之后的国际化加速埋下伏笔。 2023 至今困境反转：国际化与长期价值重估。1）2022/11-2023/6：疫后公司EPS 逐步修复，对2023 年 亦指引积极，但市场更多归因于宏观原因，并未充分反应公司主业的积极变化；2）2023/7 至今，公司 业绩开始体现出α（组织优化和出海加速），并在LABUBU 海外出圈后业绩爆发及估值提升，戴维斯双 击。此阶段labubu 热度持续超预期，我们认为底层是搪胶毛绒品类扩大labubu 受众，重要推手是LISA ...

东吴证券就泡泡玛特(9992.HK)发布研报称，持续看好labubu这一现象级IP以及多元IP矩阵驱动公司全渠 道收入快速增长，将2025-2027年经调整净利润预测上调至100.3/144.9/182.9亿元，维持买入评级。 ...

Group 1 - The popularity of labubu has sparked a "toy frenzy" both online and offline, further invigorating the development of the trendy toy industry [1] - Chenghai District in Shantou, Guangdong Province, is a significant global toy manufacturing hub, housing over 60,000 toy companies and employing more than 300,000 workers, accounting for 33% of global toy production [1] - Agricultural Bank's Shantou branch has provided financial support to 127 toy companies in Chenghai, with loans exceeding 2.1 billion yuan, aiding the local toy industry in achieving its "trillion blueprint" [1] Group 2 - Agricultural Bank's Chenghai branch recommended the Zhongke Zhigu Toy Industrial Park to a toy company, offering favorable financing options including a mortgage loan of 8.32 million yuan with a minimum down payment of 20% and a 10-year term [2] - The collaboration between Agricultural Bank and Zhongke Zhigu Industrial (Guangdong) Co., Ltd. has resulted in 32 industrial property mortgage loans totaling over 110 million yuan [2] - Over 40 years, the Chenghai toy industry has evolved from small family workshops to a global toy manufacturing powerhouse, transitioning from OEM roles to brand creation [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 321.9 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's H1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue growth projected to be at least 200%, corresponding to revenue of at least HKD 13.67 billion. The group's profit growth is expected to be at least 350%, corresponding to a profit of at least HKD 4.34 billion, with a profit margin of approximately 31.7%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - The report highlights the ongoing enhancement of brand momentum and the successful expansion of the IP ecosystem, with new product launches receiving positive market feedback [2][8]. - The company is expected to continue its impressive performance in the domestic market while expanding its presence in overseas markets, supported by the influence of celebrity endorsements [2][8]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is HKD 13.04 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 105.5%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach HKD 30.05 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 130.5% [4][9]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is HKD 3.13 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 188.8%. By 2025, net profit is expected to increase to HKD 9.38 billion, with a growth rate of 200.1% [4][9]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS), projected at HKD 2.33 for 2024, rising to HKD 6.98 in 2025 [4][9].

Group 1 - The report focuses on the performance of the toy category on TikTok Shop in major European and American markets from June 2024 to May 2025, with data sourced from EchoTik [1][3] - In the US market, the total GMV for the past year is approximately $10.9 billion, with the toy category ranking in the top 5, accounting for 7% of the total [1][16] - The peak GMV during Black Friday for toys reached nearly $61.7 million, with over 90% of sales driven by video marketing [1][20] Group 2 - In the UK market, the toy category's GMV accounts for 4% of the top 10 categories, with a recent peak of approximately $7.48 million [2][46] - The leading toy categories in the UK include classic toys, dolls, and educational toys, which together account for 54% of the top 10 GMV [2][53] - The Spanish market is still in its early development stage, with the toy category not yet in the top 10, but showing rapid growth potential [2][3] Group 3 - The Mexican market's toy category is close to entering the top 10, accounting for 2% of the market, with a peak GMV of $70,000 to $80,000 [2][3] - The overall analysis indicates that the toy market on TikTok Shop in Europe and America is at different stages of development, with the US and UK being more mature and dominated by leading brands, while Spain and Mexico present significant growth opportunities [3][2] Group 4 - In the US, the top three toy categories by GMV are classic toys, puzzles, and educational toys, collectively exceeding $130 million and accounting for 60% of the top 10 sales [1][28] - The price range for toys in the US is primarily concentrated between $30 and $50, with a significant number of sales occurring in the $10 to $20 range [1][25] - The top 10 stores in the US exhibit a clear oligopoly, with a sales threshold of $200,000, and the leading store, POPMART US SHOP, relies heavily on influencer marketing [1][29][36] Group 5 - The UK toy market is characterized by a competitive landscape focused on affordable pricing, with over 70% of GMV concentrated below $30 [2][51] - The top 10 stores in the UK have a sales threshold of $50,000, with POP MART United Kingdom Online leading the market due to its brand effect and popular products [2][54][58] - The pricing strategy in the UK shows a significant focus on products priced below $30, indicating a price-sensitive consumer base [2][55]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of counterfeit "lafufu" toys, which are imitations of the popular "labubu" figures, and the ongoing efforts by customs authorities in China to combat their importation and distribution. The phenomenon has gained significant attention, leading to a cultural trend among workers who follow customs updates on the seizures of these counterfeit goods. Group 1: Customs and Enforcement - Customs authorities have intensified their focus on counterfeit "lafufu" toys, with daily updates on seizures becoming a popular topic among workers [4][11][15] - The customs department has reported large-scale confiscations, with examples including 10,000 units in Hangzhou and 30,000 in Ningbo [14] - The article highlights the role of customs as a key player in the fight against counterfeit goods, transforming it into a central figure in the "lafufu" saga [10][39] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The counterfeit "lafufu" market has seen a surge in production, with some factories adding multiple production lines to meet demand [22] - Prices for high-quality imitations can reach up to 180 yuan per unit, indicating a lucrative market for counterfeit goods [21] - The article notes that the "lafufu" phenomenon has created a unique market segment, with various forms and styles being produced and sold [24][35] Group 3: Cultural Impact - The ongoing customs operations against "lafufu" have become a source of entertainment and engagement for workers, who eagerly await updates on the latest seizures [15][17] - The customs updates have turned into a daily ritual for many, reflecting a blend of humor and interest in the absurdity of the counterfeit market [15][18] - The article mentions that even international audiences are engaging with the "lafufu" trend, showcasing its global reach [9][10] Group 4: Legal and Intellectual Property Issues - The customs actions against "lafufu" are primarily focused on intellectual property infringement rather than smuggling, as the goods do not typically involve tax evasion [39][40] - The article discusses the complexities of determining whether a counterfeit item constitutes an infringement, highlighting the legal gray areas involved [44][45] - Customs has the authority to enforce intellectual property protections, which has led to increased scrutiny of counterfeit goods at borders [40][43]

RT Pinkerverse Studios (@pinkerverse)@waleswoosh X #labubu https://t.co/35kSs2YiMQ ...

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy has not led to inflation despite significant increases in the money supply, indicating a disconnect between monetary expansion and consumer price increases [1][3][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, showing a lack of price increases in both consumer and producer levels [1][2]. - The broad money supply has increased from 200 trillion to 300 trillion over the past 4-5 years, indicating a substantial monetary expansion without corresponding inflation [1][2]. Group 2: Global Trade and Tariffs - The trade tensions between China and the U.S. have disrupted the traditional economic model where China produces goods and the U.S. consumes them, leading to a surplus of goods in China and downward pressure on prices [7][12][13]. - The ongoing tariff disputes are expected to maintain this pressure, preventing inflation from rising as goods remain unsold and prices continue to drop [15]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Current government subsidies and consumption incentives are merely shifting future demand forward rather than creating new demand, as consumers with existing purchasing power are not incentivized to spend more [16][20]. - The wealth distribution issue is significant, as a small number of wealthy individuals hold a disproportionate amount of wealth, limiting overall consumer spending from the broader population [22][24]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies should focus on catering to the wealthy consumer segment, as there is potential for new consumption patterns among affluent individuals, despite their overall limited spending capacity [27][30]. - Exploring international markets for growth opportunities is crucial, as domestic growth becomes increasingly challenging; companies are encouraged to seek expansion in developing countries [37][41]. - In a deflationary environment, maintaining cash reserves in interest-bearing assets is advisable, as money is expected to retain or increase its value over the coming years [43][44].

Core Insights - The rise of emotional consumption is a significant trend across various age groups, not just among the youth, indicating a widespread demand for different emotional value consumption models [1][3] Group 1: Emotional Consumption Trends - Labubu has gained immense popularity, with its original price of 99 yuan being inflated to 2600 yuan, showcasing the phenomenon of emotional consumption [1] - The emotional consumption trend is particularly driven by Generation Z, who prioritize personal feelings and are willing to spend on self-pleasure and hobbies [1][2] - The emotional consumption model is not limited to younger individuals; many middle-aged and older adults also engage in emotional consumption, such as attending concerts [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The emotional consumption market is expanding due to rising living standards and increased competition, leading individuals to seek ways to relieve stress and anxiety [3] - The audience for concerts is increasingly skewing older, with significant percentages of attendees aged 50 and above, indicating a shift in the demographic landscape of live entertainment [3][4] - The emotional resonance and nostalgia associated with concerts are driving demand, as older audiences seek to relive their youth through performances by veteran artists [4] Group 3: Demographic Insights - By the end of 2024, the elderly population in China is projected to exceed 300 million, representing 22% of the total population, which will further influence emotional consumption patterns [5] - The new generation of elderly individuals, having experienced significant socio-economic changes, demonstrates a higher propensity for emotional value consumption [5]

Group 1 - The Central Financial Committee issued opinions to accelerate the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, focusing on deepening financial market development, enhancing financial institutions' capabilities, improving financial infrastructure, expanding high-level financial openness, and maintaining financial security under open conditions [2][5] - The Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, announced that the Renminbi has become the world's second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally, with its weight in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket ranking third [2][5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Chairman, Wu Qing, stated that the ChiNext board has officially adopted a third set of standards to support high-quality, unprofitable innovative companies in going public [2][5] Group 2 - The head of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, Li Yunzhe, reported that the total assets of foreign banks and insurance institutions in China have exceeded 7 trillion yuan, with significant growth in various business sectors [3][5] - The China Capital Market Society was officially established in Shanghai, aiming to unite various research forces and become a high-end think tank platform for capital market theory research and decision-making consultation [7] - Multiple listed companies announced share repurchase plans, with a total repurchase amount of 71.71 billion yuan this year, reflecting an increase in efforts to protect shareholder rights [8] Group 3 - The 2024 China Chain Top 100 report revealed that the sales scale of the top 100 chain enterprises reached 2.13 trillion yuan, with a total of 257,200 stores, marking a 4.9% and 13.5% increase from the previous year, respectively [10] - The National Healthcare Security Administration issued a guideline for the pricing of cosmetic surgery services, establishing 101 standardized projects to ensure fair pricing practices [10] - JD.com officially announced its entry into the hotel and travel industry, offering hotel operators a three-year commission-free membership plan to help reduce operational costs [10]