Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant net inflows from northbound trading, with a total net purchase of HKD 62.88 billion on September 18, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in certain stocks [1] Group 1: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading through Stock Connect (Shanghai) recorded a net purchase of HKD 19.07 billion, while the Shenzhen Connect saw a net purchase of HKD 43.82 billion [1] - The most purchased stocks included Meituan-W (03690) with a net inflow of HKD 14.12 billion, Alibaba-W (09988) with HKD 12.1 billion, and Pop Mart (09992) with HKD 12.07 billion [3][4] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Meituan-W (03690) launched its international food delivery brand Keeta in Kuwait, achieving top downloads in the food and beverage category on both iOS and Google Play, indicating strong user growth in the Middle East [3] - Alibaba-W (09988) received a boost from Goldman Sachs' report highlighting significant advancements in AI infrastructure and models in China, including the launch of Alibaba's Qwen3-Next [3] - Pop Mart (09992) is viewed positively by Huayuan Securities, which noted that recent stock price adjustments are normal market fluctuations, and the company is expected to continue high-quality growth due to its strong IP capabilities and expanding overseas business [4] Group 3: Selling Activity - Semiconductor stocks faced net sell-offs, with SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) experiencing net outflows of HKD 2.77 billion and HKD 11.64 billion, respectively, as companies like Alibaba and Baidu shift towards self-designed chips for AI model training [6] - Tencent (00700) also faced a net sell-off of HKD 4.18 billion, reflecting a broader trend of investor caution in the tech sector [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the business models of two companies, Moutai and Pop Mart, comparing their profitability and sustainability, ultimately suggesting that both have strong business models but differ in market dynamics and future potential [2][3][8]. Profitability Metrics - Moutai has a gross margin of 90% and a net margin of 50%, making it one of the best globally [3]. - Pop Mart has a gross margin of 70% and a net margin of 35%, ranking among the top five but not surpassing Moutai [3]. Sustainability of Business Models - The white liquor market is expected to face a decline in consumer demographics, which poses challenges for Moutai in maintaining or increasing market share [5]. - Pop Mart has the potential for better sustainability due to its broader market appeal and the ability to tap into international markets, particularly the U.S. [6][7]. Market Opportunities - Pop Mart's IP, labubu, is considered significantly undervalued, with the potential to contribute substantial value alongside a matrix of top-tier IPs [6]. - The U.S. market is viewed as a major opportunity, with potential revenues estimated to be 2-3 times that of the domestic market, given the higher average revenue per store [6]. Management Quality - Moutai's management is seen as competent but not as strong as that of leading global companies like Apple [10]. - Pop Mart's management is viewed favorably, with aspirations to reach the level of Apple in the future [11]. Valuation Comparison - Current static PE ratios are approximately 25 for Pop Mart and 20 for Moutai, indicating they are in a similar valuation range [11]. - Both companies are expected to show stable performance in the short term, with earnings serving as a lower bound for future performance [11]. Revenue Growth Potential - Pop Mart is projected to reach 50 billion in revenue, with a trajectory towards 100 billion, indicating strong growth potential [12].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Service Trade Fair emphasizes dynamic engagement and diverse interactive experiences, with Bubble Mart participating as the exclusive trendy cultural brand partner, showcasing popular IP products and creative installations [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The 2025 Service Trade Fair commenced on September 10, featuring a variety of supporting activities and interactive scenarios aimed at fostering new development momentum [1] - Bubble Mart set up two major exhibition booths at the fair, highlighting its popular IP products such as labubu, Molly, and Star People [1] Group 2: Interactive Experience - The event included innovative formats like a creative dessert house and large outdoor art installations, enhancing visitor engagement and interaction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant impact of Pop Mart on the domestic IP industry, suggesting that the company has validated the potential for domestic IP enterprises to leverage strong supply chains and quality operations to access global markets [1] Group 1: Commercial Value of IP - The market has underestimated the commercial value of character-based IP and the long-term operational capabilities of companies [2] - The lifecycle of high-quality character-based IP is longer than the market perceives, with examples like MOLLY showing a revenue CAGR of 22% from 2019 to 2023 [2] - Successful IP can achieve high commercial value through a combination of mass appeal and artistic quality, as seen with projected revenues of 2.1 billion RMB for MOLLY and 3 billion RMB for LABUBU in 2024 [2] Group 2: Business Challenges and Resilience - From December 2020 to June 2022, the company experienced a decline in stock price due to systemic adjustments in growth stock valuations and deteriorating profit indicators [3] - The period from July to October 2022 saw the company’s performance under pressure, with the blind box trend becoming mainstream, leading to a significant underperformance compared to the Hong Kong stock market [3] - The company demonstrated strong organizational resilience and execution capabilities during this challenging phase, which laid the groundwork for accelerated internationalization post-2024 [3] Group 3: Recovery and Long-term Value Reassessment - From November 2022 to June 2023, the company’s EPS gradually recovered, with positive guidance for 2023, although the market attributed this mainly to macroeconomic factors [3] - Since July 2023, the company’s performance has shown signs of alpha, driven by organizational optimization and accelerated international expansion, particularly with LABUBU gaining unexpected popularity [3] - The rise of LABUBU is supported by trends in personalized consumption and social media influence, which have contributed to its revenue exceeding expectations [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company remains optimistic about LABUBU and its diverse IP matrix driving rapid revenue growth across all channels, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 raised to 10.03 billion, 14.49 billion, and 18.29 billion RMB respectively [4] - A valuation of 30 times PE for 2026 is suggested, corresponding to a market value of 434.6 billion RMB, indicating a potential 28% upside from the market value as of August 8, 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a positive outlook on Pop Mart (9992.HK), highlighting the significant growth potential driven by the labubu IP and a diverse IP matrix, leading to rapid revenue growth across all channels [1] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Pop Mart are raised to 10.03 billion, 14.49 billion, and 18.29 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992.HK), highlighting the strong growth potential driven by the labubu IP and a diversified IP matrix that supports rapid revenue growth across all channels [1] Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Pop Mart are raised to 10.03 billion, 14.49 billion, and 18.29 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising global public perception of China, particularly in high-income countries, where the median percentage of respondents with a positive view is at a six-year high [1] - The transformation of China's international image is noted, shifting from "mysterious" to "charming," with an increasing number of foreigners visiting China and engaging with its culture through social media and live streaming [1] - The implementation of policies such as 240-hour visa-free transit and instant tax refunds has led to a significant increase in international tourists, with a nearly 100% year-on-year growth in tax refund sales in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - The increase in positive sentiment towards China is attributed to its stability and progress, as the country continues to open its doors while other nations erect trade barriers [3] - China has signed 23 free trade agreements with 30 countries and regions, implementing zero tariffs on 100% of products for 53 African countries, showcasing its commitment to global trade and cooperation [5] - The enhancement of China's cultural soft power is reflected in the global popularity of Chinese cultural icons, which are gaining traction in the international cultural landscape [7] Group 3 - The rise in China's global favorability indicates a positive interaction between China and the world, presenting a credible, lovable, and respectable image that is becoming increasingly multidimensional [9]

Group 1 - The popularity of labubu has sparked a "toy frenzy" both online and offline, further invigorating the development of the trendy toy industry [1] - Chenghai District in Shantou, Guangdong Province, is a significant global toy manufacturing hub, housing over 60,000 toy companies and employing more than 300,000 workers, accounting for 33% of global toy production [1] - Agricultural Bank's Shantou branch has provided financial support to 127 toy companies in Chenghai, with loans exceeding 2.1 billion yuan, aiding the local toy industry in achieving its "trillion blueprint" [1] Group 2 - Agricultural Bank's Chenghai branch recommended the Zhongke Zhigu Toy Industrial Park to a toy company, offering favorable financing options including a mortgage loan of 8.32 million yuan with a minimum down payment of 20% and a 10-year term [2] - The collaboration between Agricultural Bank and Zhongke Zhigu Industrial (Guangdong) Co., Ltd. has resulted in 32 industrial property mortgage loans totaling over 110 million yuan [2] - Over 40 years, the Chenghai toy industry has evolved from small family workshops to a global toy manufacturing powerhouse, transitioning from OEM roles to brand creation [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 321.9 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's H1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue growth projected to be at least 200%, corresponding to revenue of at least HKD 13.67 billion. The group's profit growth is expected to be at least 350%, corresponding to a profit of at least HKD 4.34 billion, with a profit margin of approximately 31.7%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - The report highlights the ongoing enhancement of brand momentum and the successful expansion of the IP ecosystem, with new product launches receiving positive market feedback [2][8]. - The company is expected to continue its impressive performance in the domestic market while expanding its presence in overseas markets, supported by the influence of celebrity endorsements [2][8]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is HKD 13.04 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 105.5%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach HKD 30.05 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 130.5% [4][9]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is HKD 3.13 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 188.8%. By 2025, net profit is expected to increase to HKD 9.38 billion, with a growth rate of 200.1% [4][9]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS), projected at HKD 2.33 for 2024, rising to HKD 6.98 in 2025 [4][9].

Group 1 - The report focuses on the performance of the toy category on TikTok Shop in major European and American markets from June 2024 to May 2025, with data sourced from EchoTik [1][3] - In the US market, the total GMV for the past year is approximately $10.9 billion, with the toy category ranking in the top 5, accounting for 7% of the total [1][16] - The peak GMV during Black Friday for toys reached nearly $61.7 million, with over 90% of sales driven by video marketing [1][20] Group 2 - In the UK market, the toy category's GMV accounts for 4% of the top 10 categories, with a recent peak of approximately $7.48 million [2][46] - The leading toy categories in the UK include classic toys, dolls, and educational toys, which together account for 54% of the top 10 GMV [2][53] - The Spanish market is still in its early development stage, with the toy category not yet in the top 10, but showing rapid growth potential [2][3] Group 3 - The Mexican market's toy category is close to entering the top 10, accounting for 2% of the market, with a peak GMV of $70,000 to $80,000 [2][3] - The overall analysis indicates that the toy market on TikTok Shop in Europe and America is at different stages of development, with the US and UK being more mature and dominated by leading brands, while Spain and Mexico present significant growth opportunities [3][2] Group 4 - In the US, the top three toy categories by GMV are classic toys, puzzles, and educational toys, collectively exceeding $130 million and accounting for 60% of the top 10 sales [1][28] - The price range for toys in the US is primarily concentrated between $30 and $50, with a significant number of sales occurring in the $10 to $20 range [1][25] - The top 10 stores in the US exhibit a clear oligopoly, with a sales threshold of $200,000, and the leading store, POPMART US SHOP, relies heavily on influencer marketing [1][29][36] Group 5 - The UK toy market is characterized by a competitive landscape focused on affordable pricing, with over 70% of GMV concentrated below $30 [2][51] - The top 10 stores in the UK have a sales threshold of $50,000, with POP MART United Kingdom Online leading the market due to its brand effect and popular products [2][54][58] - The pricing strategy in the UK shows a significant focus on products priced below $30, indicating a price-sensitive consumer base [2][55]