Danely指出，该协议主要影响的是像MI308X这样的低利润产品，其利润远低于AMD近54%的公司平均 利润率。真正的增长动力仍然是AMD的主流AI GPU——MI355和MI400，这两款产品预计将推动AMD 的AI销售额在2025年达到62亿美元(增长23%)，在2026年达到99亿美元(增长58%)。推动这一增长的关 键客户包括亚马逊、甲骨文、Meta Platforms和OpenAI。 分析师Christopher Danely表示虽然上缴其中国芯片销售收入的15%作为特朗普政府批准半导体出口许可 证的条件听起来意义重大，但对AMD的盈利影响不大。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管市场消息称，AMD(AMD.US)同意向美国政府上缴其中国芯片销售收入的 15%，但花旗认为这对AMD的盈利影响不大，该行维持AMD"中性"评级，目标价为180美元。 ...

本周，有报道称AMD(AMD.US)同意向美国政府分享其在中国的人工智能GPU销售额的15%，以换取出 口许可证，此事引起了关注。花旗分析师Christopher Danely表示，这对AMD的盈利影响不大。这位分 析师维持对AMD的"中性"评级，目标价为180美元，并指出该股票的估值略高于其历史平均水平。 AMD竞争对手英伟达(NVDA.US)也签署了一项类似的中国出口协议。目前，华尔街对AMD的评级 为"适度买入"，分析师认为从当前水平来看，其股价平均有约5%的上涨空间。 Danely指出，该协议主要影响的是像MI308X这样低利润率的产品，其利润率远低于AMD公司近54%的 平均利润率。相反，真正推动增长的仍是AMD的主流AI GPU，即MI355和MI400，这推动了2025年AI 销售额达到62亿美元(增长23%)以及2026年达到99亿美元(增长58%)的预测。推动这一增长的关键客户包 括亚马逊(AMZN.US)、甲骨文(ORCL.US)、Meta(META.US)和OpenAI。 ...

Core Viewpoint - AMD reported strong financial results for Q1 2025, with revenue of approximately $7.44 billion, a year-over-year increase of 36%, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.96, up 55% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations [1][2][12]. Financial Performance - AMD's adjusted gross margin was 54%, and operating income margin was 24%, indicating better-than-expected operating cycles [2]. - The data center segment showed significant growth, with revenue of approximately $3.67 billion, a 57% increase year-over-year, accounting for about 49% of total revenue [4][5]. - Client and gaming revenue reached $2.94 billion, up 28% year-over-year, driven by high-end Ryzen CPU sales [4][5]. - Embedded revenue was approximately $823 million, down 3% year-over-year, but showed signs of gradual recovery [4][5]. Segment Results - Data Center: - Net Revenue: $3,674 million (up 57% YoY) [5] - Operating Income: $932 million (up 72% YoY) [5] - Client & Gaming: - Net Revenue: $2,941 million (up 28% YoY) [5] - Operating Income: $496 million (up 109% YoY) [5] - Embedded: - Net Revenue: $823 million (down 3% YoY) [5] - Operating Income: $328 million (down 4% YoY) [5] Market Position and Outlook - AMD's EPYC server chips are gaining market share among hyperscale and enterprise customers, with over 30 new cloud instances launched in Q1 2025 [6]. - The AI computing market, valued at over $500 billion, presents significant growth opportunities for AMD, especially with the introduction of new MI series GPUs [9]. - Management anticipates strong double-digit revenue growth for 2025, despite potential impacts from export licensing restrictions [9][12]. - If sales resume, AMD could see an additional $700 million in revenue in the short term and potentially $1.5 billion in the medium term [12]. Valuation and Investment Potential - AMD's forward P/E ratio is approximately 42, which is relatively low compared to its historical range [17]. - Assuming a 5% increase in EPS for 2025 and 2026, the target price for 2026 could be around $223.3, indicating a potential upside of about 34% [19]. - Given the recent earnings report exceeding expectations and the potential for further growth in the data center segment, AMD remains an attractive buy [19].

此前AMD管理层表示业绩指引已包含出口管制造成的约7亿美元收入损失，预计2025财年总损失将达15 亿美元。 尽管涉及中国的新出口管制措施可能持续构成挑战，AMD(AMD.US)的季度业绩及展望仍获得多家华尔 街机构认可。 摩根士丹利分析师约瑟夫.摩尔在报告中指出："AMD数据非常亮眼。虽然有人质疑在需求前置担忧下客 户端业务表现过于强劲，但AI与传统服务器业务更具决定性——而这两大板块表现优异。" 他补充称对股价回吐涨幅感到意外，强调尽管AI尚未转化为实质盈利，却已推高估值倍数，而"能见度 不足"仍是隐患。摩根士丹利维持"持股观望"评级，但将目标价从149美元下调至121美元，以反映盈利 倍数收缩。"与当前市场情绪形成反差的是，我们仍认为AI硬件正处于强劲投资周期，"摩尔分析 称，"但在英伟达与ASIC厂商激烈竞速的赛道上，AMD需在明年推出足够强大的MI400产品线才能巩固 地位。虽然凭借英特尔的市场混乱，AMD在其他领域优势稳固，但AI业务前景仍存变数。" Evercore ISI分析师马克.利帕西斯更为乐观，在财报后重申"跑赢大盘"评级及126美元目标价。"AMD关 于数据中心GPU业务(Instin ...