证券研究报告 超威半导体(AMD) (AMD US) 客户集中度和订单节奏成焦点 华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(美元): 300.00 何翩翩 研究员 SAC No. S0570523020002 SFC No. ASI353 +(852) 3658 6000 易楚妍 联系人 yichuyan@htsc.com SAC No. S0570124070123 SFC No. BXH065 +(86) 21 2897 2228 韩冬冰* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070150 handongbing@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (美元 截至 2 月 3 日) | 242.11 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (美元百万) | 394,165 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (美元百万) | 10,324 | | 52 周价格范围 (美元) | 76.48-267.08 | 股价走势图 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (美元) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - Cerebras Systems plans to reapply for an IPO in the U.S. aiming for a debut in Q2 2026, following a previous withdrawal due to national security concerns related to its ties with Abu Dhabi's G42 [1][4][14] Group 1: IPO Plans and Market Context - Cerebras Systems is considering a new IPO application after withdrawing its previous one months ago due to national security reviews [4][14] - The company aims to capitalize on the increasing demand for specialized AI silicon, with a target valuation that has reportedly nearly doubled to several billion dollars [12][13] - The IPO's success will depend on public market investors' acceptance of associated risks rather than just the technology itself [6] Group 2: Financial Performance and Customer Dependency - Cerebras reported a significant revenue increase of 1,364 million USD in H1 2024, a 1,474% year-over-year growth, with 87% of this revenue coming from G42 [15] - The company's gross margin decreased from 50.5% to 41.1% due to discounts related to high-volume orders from G42 [15] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia remains the dominant player in the AI chip market, holding an estimated 80% to 90% market share, while competitors like AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm are seeking to diversify offerings [16][18] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with various tech giants and startups aiming to reduce reliance on Nvidia by developing their own chips [19] Group 4: Technological Innovation - Cerebras employs a unique approach by developing a single wafer-scale processor, which integrates nearly 40 trillion transistors and 900,000 cores, providing advantages in training large AI models [7][8][9] - This design focuses on flexibility and robust performance, distinguishing Cerebras from traditional GPU companies [9]

Core Viewpoint - AMD has reported strong quarterly earnings for the third quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, with overall revenue continuing to grow robustly, driven by client and gaming segments, as well as increased penetration of its fifth-generation EPYC processors and Instinct series graphics cards in large-scale cloud service providers and enterprise clients [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - AMD's total revenue for Q3 2025 reached a record $9.25 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 35.6%. The client and gaming business saw a significant revenue increase of 73%, with the Ryzen series products experiencing particularly high demand [3][5]. - The data center business also performed well, with revenue growing about 22% to $4.34 billion. However, the embedded business faced challenges, recording a single-digit decline in sales [5]. - Despite the revenue growth, AMD's overall profitability was slightly pressured due to high R&D investments related to artificial intelligence, leading to a 140 basis point year-on-year decrease in adjusted EBITDA margin to 26.3%. Adjusted earnings per share rose to $1.20, exceeding market expectations by $0.03 [5][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect the growth momentum to continue, driven by strong demand for AMD's AI data center and gaming product lines, which have reached historical highs. The demand for Instinct series accelerators and the fifth-generation EPYC processors is expected to remain robust as large cloud service providers expand their AI and general computing capacities [7][8]. - AMD has secured significant orders from Fortune 500 companies across various sectors, which will further enhance the penetration of EPYC processors in the enterprise market, supporting sales growth for FY 2026 [7][8]. - The recent launch of AMD's advanced software platform ROCm 7, which significantly improves training and inference performance, is expected to lower application barriers and promote the deployment of AMD's accelerator products among cloud service providers and enterprise clients [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - Despite AMD's advancements, NVIDIA maintains a dominant position in the AI accelerator market due to its established software ecosystem. Analysts believe this competitive pressure may limit AMD's market share growth in the AI graphics card segment [10]. - AMD's recent collaborations, such as with OpenAI, and its differentiated advantages in CPU and semi-custom chip sectors are expected to provide diversified growth drivers in the long term [10][12]. Valuation Update - Following a significant stock price increase of over 200% since April, AMD's valuation remains high despite recent declines. Analysts maintain a neutral stance, citing that while revenue and earnings exceeded expectations, the stock price has fallen nearly 10% post-earnings report [12][14]. - Current forward P/E ratios for AMD are 53.82 based on FY 2025 earnings expectations of $3.97 per share, and 33.05 based on FY 2026 expectations of $6.44 per share. Comparatively, NVIDIA's forward P/E ratio is around 24, indicating AMD's valuation is still elevated [12][14]. Conclusion - Overall, while AMD shows steady revenue growth, short-term profitability is expected to remain under pressure due to substantial R&D investments. Analysts suggest that maintaining a neutral stance is reasonable until the valuation becomes more attractive relative to peers or significant improvements in earnings growth are observed [16].

Core Viewpoint - Palantir Technologies has experienced a significant increase in market capitalization, rising from $12.5 billion to over $400 billion since the AI revolution began, marking a gain of more than 2,000% [1][4]. Company Performance - Palantir's software suite, including Foundry, Gotham, and Apollo, has seen unprecedented demand as organizations seek to enhance data-driven workflows, leading to accelerated revenue and profit growth [5]. - The company's price-to-sales (P/S) multiple stands at 112, which is considerably higher than many comparable high-growth software stocks, indicating a substantial valuation expansion during the AI boom [5][7]. Market Dynamics - The AI revolution is not limited to enterprise software; the semiconductor industry, particularly companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, is also benefiting significantly [2]. - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has gained traction in the AI chip market, with its MI300 and MI400 chip series being well-received by major AI developers, including Microsoft and Meta Platforms [10][11]. Future Outlook - There are concerns that Palantir may face a valuation reset by 2026 as expectations for growth increase, potentially leading to a de-rating of its stock if it fails to meet these heightened expectations [8]. - AMD's stock is projected to continue rising, with a potential market cap increase that could allow it to surpass Palantir's valuation by 2026, contingent on AMD's performance and market conditions [12][15].

Core Viewpoint - AMD anticipates a significant increase in data center revenue, projecting a growth of 60% to reach $100 billion over the next 3 to 5 years, which has led to a spike in its stock price [1][2] Group 1: Market Growth and Opportunities - The total market for AMD's data center chips is expected to grow to $1 trillion by 2030, indicating a robust demand for AI infrastructure [2][6] - The AI market is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, with AMD initially estimating it at $500 billion for 2028 [6][29] - AMD's data center AI business is targeted to grow at an 80% compound annual growth rate over the next 3 to 5 years [21] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Technology - AMD has formed significant partnerships with major companies such as OpenAI, Oracle, and Meta, enhancing its market position [11][21] - The company is currently in production with its MI350 chip family and is preparing to launch the next generation MI400 series, which is expected to be highly competitive [11][13] - AMD emphasizes the importance of having both training and inferencing chips to meet the diverse needs of AI applications [7][10] Group 3: Manufacturing and Supply Chain - AMD is focused on establishing a strong U.S. manufacturing footprint while continuing to collaborate with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) [26][28] - The company is exploring various manufacturing options to ensure competitive technology and pricing [26][28] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Competition - AMD acknowledges the competitive landscape, particularly with Nvidia, and aims to provide technology that reduces the total cost of ownership for data centers [13][21] - The company is aware of the dynamic situation regarding its business in China, currently not including China AI revenue in its forecasts due to export control policies [33]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on TSMC (TSM.US) with a target price of NT$1,275, citing significant increases in CoWoS capacity projections for 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 1: TSMC Capacity Expansion - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 95,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026 and further increase to 112,000 wafers per month by the end of 2027, which is a notable upgrade from previous forecasts [1] - The expansion is primarily driven by the planned capacity construction of the AP8 factory, expected to commence production in mid-2026, alongside sustained demand from key clients such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD [1] - From the second half of 2026, full-stack CoWoS packaging orders for non-AI products will begin to shift to OSAT partners, mainly ASE, allowing TSMC to focus more on the CoW (Chip-on-Wafer) segment [1] Group 2: Client Demand Insights - Broadcom is projected to have a CoWoS allocation of 185,000 wafers in 2026, representing a 93% year-over-year increase, driven mainly by demand from Google's TPU project [2] - Morgan Stanley estimates that TPU shipments will reach 2.5 million units in 2026, a 38% increase year-over-year, with additional contributions from Meta's first CoWoS-based ASIC (Athena) and OpenAI's ASIC projects [2] - NVIDIA's demand is expected to remain robust in the first half of 2026 due to increased chip sizes and strong B300 demand, with an estimated production of 2.9 million Rubin GPUs [3] Group 3: AMD's Growth Dynamics - AMD's CoWoS demand is expected to remain stable in 2025 but will grow in 2026 with the ramp-up of MI400/MI450 series and Venice CPU, which utilize HBM and CoWoS-S packaging [4] - The adoption rate of MI400/450 (using CoWoS-L) will be a key variable for AMD's growth trajectory, while the company plans to expand 2.5D/wafers-level fan-out packaging applications in gaming GPUs and high-end server/PC CPUs in 2026/27 [4]

Summary of TSMC's CoWoS and Advanced Packaging Outlook Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - **Industry**: Semiconductor, specifically focusing on advanced packaging technologies such as CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) and CoPoS (Chip-in-Panel-on-Substrate) Key Points and Arguments CoWoS Capacity and Growth Forecast - TSMC's total CoWoS capacity is projected to reach **675k** wafers per month (wpm) by the end of **2025**, with a forecast of **1.08 million** wpm by the end of **2026**, representing a **61%** year-over-year (YoY) growth [5][62] - The company anticipates further expansion to **130k** wpm by the end of **2027** [5][13] - CoWoS capacity has seen significant growth, with a **100%** YoY increase noted in early **2024** [11] Utilization Rate and Production Adjustments - TSMC's CoWoS utilization rate (UTR) is expected to be in the low **90s** in **1H26**, with a return to full capacity anticipated in **2H26** as new projects enter mass production [5][57] - Adjustments in nVidia's orders have led to a production mismatch, impacting the UTR and causing some expansion timelines to shift [5][50] Customer Allocation and Market Dynamics - nVidia is projected to maintain a **50.1%** market share in CoWoS capacity allocation for **2026**, slightly down from **51.4%** in **2025** [6][62] - Broadcom is expected to become the second-largest customer, with an allocation of **187k** wpm, benefiting from multiple projects entering mass production [62] Advanced Packaging Technologies - TSMC is focusing on several advanced packaging technologies, including CoWoS, CoPoS, and WMCM (Wafer-level Multiple-Chip Module), with CoPoS expected to enter high-volume production by **2028** [5][21][35] - CoWoS has evolved from a niche solution to a critical component in AI and high-performance computing (HPC), driven by the demand for larger memory bandwidth [10] Strategic Partnerships and Outsourcing - TSMC is collaborating with OSAT partners like ASE and SPIL to manage the increasing demand for CoWoS, with expectations that outsourcing will accelerate in **2026** and **2027** [40][42] - The company has invested significantly in expanding its advanced packaging capabilities, including a **US$100 billion** investment in the U.S. for new fabs and R&D centers [46] Challenges and Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry faces challenges such as production bottlenecks and mismatches between upstream and downstream production, which TSMC is actively addressing [52] - The demand for AI-related products is expected to remain strong, with TSMC's management indicating improved demand compared to previous forecasts [52] Conclusion - TSMC is positioned as a leader in the advanced packaging sector, with aggressive expansion plans and a strong customer base, particularly in the AI and HPC markets. The company's strategic partnerships and investments are expected to support its growth trajectory in the coming years [7][46]

Core Viewpoint - AMD is on a promising trajectory to reach a $1 trillion market cap, driven by its advancements in the semiconductor industry and the growing demand for AI accelerators [1][12]. Current Position of AMD - AMD currently has a market cap of $280 billion, which is 28% of the $1 trillion goal, indicating that it needs to double in value less than two times to reach this milestone [3]. - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 99, but a forward P/E ratio of 44, suggesting potential for multiple expansion similar to other high-growth stocks [4]. Business Growth Potential - AMD's data center segment, which focuses on AI accelerators, generated over $6.9 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025, accounting for approximately 46% of total revenue [5]. - The AI accelerator market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% through 2030, potentially benefiting AMD significantly [8]. - The semiconductor industry is also expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% through 2032, providing additional tailwinds for AMD [9]. Competitive Landscape - Although AMD is currently behind Nvidia in the AI accelerator market, the upcoming release of the MI400 chip could position AMD as a competitive threat to Nvidia's offerings [6][7]. - Nvidia's current market cap is just under $4.5 trillion, meaning AMD would need to grow to about one-fourth of Nvidia's size to reach a $1 trillion market cap [10]. Future Outlook - AMD is expected to benefit from various catalysts that could propel its market cap to $1 trillion and beyond, with a strong emphasis on the AI accelerator market [12][13]. - The growth of all four segments—data center, client, embedded, and gaming—will likely contribute to AMD's overall growth trajectory [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - AMD has agreed to pay 15% of its chip sales revenue from China to the U.S. government, but Citigroup believes this will have a minimal impact on AMD's profitability, maintaining a "neutral" rating with a target price of $180 [1] Group 1: Financial Impact - The 15% revenue payment is a condition for semiconductor export licenses approved by the Trump administration, but its effect on AMD's earnings is considered minor [1] - The agreement primarily affects low-margin products like the MI308X, which has a profit margin significantly lower than AMD's average company profit margin of nearly 54% [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The main growth drivers for AMD are its mainstream AI GPUs, the MI355 and MI400, which are expected to boost AI sales to $6.2 billion in 2025 (a 23% increase) and $9.9 billion in 2026 (a 58% increase) [1] - Key customers driving this growth include Amazon, Oracle, Meta Platforms, and OpenAI [1]

Core Viewpoint - AMD has agreed to share 15% of its AI GPU sales in China with the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses, which has raised concerns, but analysts believe the impact on AMD's profitability will be minimal [1] Group 1: Financial Impact - Citigroup analyst Christopher Danely maintains a "neutral" rating on AMD with a target price of $180, noting that the stock's valuation is slightly above its historical average [1] - The agreement primarily affects low-margin products like the MI308X, which has a profit margin significantly lower than AMD's average margin of nearly 54% [1] Group 2: Growth Projections - AMD's mainstream AI GPUs, specifically the MI355 and MI400, are expected to drive significant growth, with AI sales projected to reach $6.2 billion in 2025 (a 23% increase) and $9.9 billion in 2026 (a 58% increase) [1] - Key customers contributing to this growth include Amazon, Oracle, Meta, and OpenAI [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitor NVIDIA has also signed a similar export agreement with China [1] - Wall Street currently rates AMD as "moderate buy," with analysts estimating an average upside of about 5% from current levels [1]