证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 18 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 分析师：刘笑瑜 12 月 17 日（星期三）财政部公布 1-11 月财政收支数据。 证书编号：S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 评论： 1-11 月全国一般公共财政收入同比为 0.8%，与 1-10 月持平，其中中央回落 0.2 个百分点至-1.0%，地方回升 0.1 个百分点同比为 2.2%；而一般公共财政支出同比 为 1.4%，较 1-10 月回落 0.6 个百分点，其中中央回落 0.1 个百分点至 6.2%，地 方回落0.6个百分点至0.6%。地方财政支出近两个月的回落速度较快，9月为2.4%。 政府性基金收入则表现不佳，1-11 月同比为-4.9%，较 1-10 月回落 2.1 个百分点， 其中地方国有土地使用权出让收入同比为-10.7%，较 1-10 月 7.4%回落 2.7 个百分 点，9 月为 4.2%；1-11 月政府性基金支出增速为 13.7%，较 1-10 月回落 ...

Group 1 - The emergency call between President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Suga lasted about 25 minutes, occurring shortly after a call with Chinese leaders, indicating a strategic diplomatic maneuver [3][8] - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate surged past 7.09, reaching a new high in over a year, reflecting market optimism regarding US-China relations [3][8] - The Chinese yuan's strong performance is attributed to better-than-expected export figures and a recovering domestic economy, contrasting with the pressures faced during previous trade tensions [8][16] Group 2 - Trump's communication with Suga included a summary of the US-China call, which is unusual in diplomatic practice, suggesting an effort to stabilize US-Japan relations [10][11] - The recent political dynamics in the US, including Trump's declining approval ratings and upcoming midterm elections, are influencing the administration's foreign policy towards seeking stability [16] - The interaction between the US, China, and Japan reflects not only political ties but also economic connections, as seen in the performance of Chinese companies like Alibaba and their investment strategies [17]