（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，Binance Research 发布 11 月报告指出，加密市场在 10 月经历去杠杆冲击后下跌 6.1%，为 2018 年以来首个"红色十月"。尽管整体承压，BNB 凭借热门项目上线及招商银行货币基金代币化逆势 上涨 6.2%；受益于永续交易量和 Hyperliquid 的回购计划，HYPE 表现亦相对稳健；ETH 机构需求维持 强劲，金库持仓已达总供应量 5%。此外，SOL、ADA、DOGE 等多数主流代币跌幅超 10%。DeFi TVL 环比下降 4.85%，稳定币市值增长 3.54%。报告认为，11 月有望迎来情绪修复，市场正关注美联储缩表 结束与中美关系改善带来的潜在利好。 来源：市场资讯 ...

Group 1 - Recent positive signals in US-China relations, including the suspension of sanctions on China's shipbuilding industry and public consultations on delaying tariffs, have boosted investor risk appetite [1] - The Dow Jones futures rose approximately 0.20%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.25% and 0.33% respectively, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1] - October's employment data showed a significant increase in layoffs, with over 153,000 job cuts reported, marking the largest monthly increase in over 20 years, which has strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 67% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, up from 60% a week prior, supporting stock market risk appetite and maintaining high gold prices [1] - Despite the recovery in market sentiment, safe-haven funds remain resilient due to ongoing government shutdown risks, with independent estimates suggesting a potential 1% to 2% reduction in Q4 GDP if the shutdown continues [1] - The US Supreme Court's hearings on presidential tariff powers have added policy uncertainty, sustaining market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 3 - Gold prices have returned above $4,000 but remain below overnight highs, with short-term volatility driven by dollar buying and interest rate cut expectations [2] - Technical analysis suggests that if gold prices break through the $4,020–$4,030 resistance range, they may further test $4,045–$4,050 and potentially $4,100; conversely, a drop below $3,975–$3,965 could see prices retreat to around $3,929 [2] - The market is characterized by a coexistence of policy expectations and safe-haven demand, with gold stability above $4,000 dependent on upcoming data confirming rate cut prospects and dollar performance [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and the CSI A500 Index increasing by 1.72% [1] - The chip industry chain saw significant activity, while the film and cinema sector faced substantial declines [1] ETF Performance - As of the morning close, ETFs tracking the CSI A500 Index rose by more than 1%, with 12 related ETFs having transaction volumes exceeding 100 million yuan and 4 surpassing 3 billion yuan [1] - Specific transaction volumes for A500 ETFs included 4.013 billion yuan, 3.513 billion yuan, 3.048 billion yuan, and 3.034 billion yuan respectively [1] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is likely to maintain a trend of steady upward movement, supported by stable economic fundamentals, continuous inflow of new capital, global liquidity easing, and improved China-U.S. relations [1]

Group 1 - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the liquidity contraction observed before the National Day holiday is primarily "emotional shrinkage" rather than a fundamental issue [1][2] - Historically, the A-share market shows a 60% probability of rising in the five trading days following the National Day holiday, particularly during bull markets where the gains tend to be more sustained [2] - Recent market focus has shifted towards domestic policies and structural economic conditions, with a noted lack of attention on US-China relations, which have shown signs of improvement since September [2][3] Group 2 - Following concentrated trading in the computing power sector, market funds are gradually shifting towards other low-growth sectors, maintaining a stable overall market sentiment [3] - The mid-term market is expected to continue a slow bull trend, with structural growth sectors becoming key investment opportunities [3] - Key sectors to watch for catalytic events include semiconductors, renewable energy, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals [3]