on 05-Feb-2026 4 February 2026 Global Memory MEMORY TRACKER (Jan): Parabolic price hike continues Mark Li +852 2123 2645 mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Mark C. Newman +1 212 845 7822 mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA +852 2123 2623 edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA +852 2123 2669 yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com April Li +1 917 344 8339 april.li@bernsteinsg.com Phoebe Sun +1 917 344 8481 phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com This monthly tracker (download dataset here) summarizes spot and contract price data relea ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI and data centers is intensifying, leading to a significant imbalance in the global memory supply and demand, resulting in increased pricing power for manufacturers [3][4]. Price Adjustments - The price forecast for Conventional DRAM contracts has been revised from a quarterly increase of 55-60% to 90-95%, while NAND Flash contract prices have been adjusted from 33-38% to 55-60% for Q1 2026 [3][4]. - Specific price increases for various DRAM types are as follows: - PC DRAM: Expected to increase by 105-110% [6]. - Server DRAM: Anticipated to rise by 88-93% [6]. - Mobile DRAM (LPDDR4X): Projected to increase by 88-93% [6]. - Total DRAM: Conventional DRAM expected to rise by 90-95% [6]. - Total NAND Flash: Expected to increase by 55-60% [6]. Market Insights - The PC DRAM market is experiencing a supply shortage, with prices expected to rise over 100% in Q1 2026, marking a historical high [8]. - The Server DRAM market is seeing significant price increases, with expectations of a 90% rise due to strong demand from North American and Chinese cloud service providers [8]. - The Mobile DRAM market is also facing a supply-demand gap, leading to anticipated price increases of around 90% for both LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X [9]. NAND Flash Market Dynamics - Despite high demand for NAND Flash, manufacturers are prioritizing DRAM production due to better profit prospects, which is constraining new NAND Flash capacity [9]. - Short-term capacity bottlenecks are expected to persist, limiting the ability to meet demand [9]. Enterprise SSD Demand - The demand for high-performance storage devices is surging, particularly from North American cloud service providers, leading to a forecasted price increase of 53-58% for Enterprise SSDs in Q1 2026, the highest quarterly increase on record [10].

Group 1: DRAM Market Insights - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a significant increase in PC DRAM prices due to tightened supply from manufacturers, despite a slowdown in overall demand for PC units [2] - Server DRAM demand is projected to grow substantially as cloud service providers (CSPs) increase their purchases, with a forecasted price increase of over 60% in the first quarter [3] - Mobile DRAM supply remains tight, leading to strong purchasing power from brands, with expectations of rising contract prices for LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X [3] - Graphics DRAM prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints, despite a conservative demand outlook influenced by NVIDIA's sales target adjustments [3] - Consumer DRAM customers are willing to pay higher prices for prioritized supply in the first quarter, as supply continues to lag behind demand [3] Group 2: NAND Flash Market Insights - The NAND Flash market is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by AI applications, with Enterprise SSD demand expected to surpass mobile applications for the first time by 2026 [4] - Client SSD demand is projected to decline in the first quarter due to reduced laptop shipments and capacity downgrades in lower-end models, yet contract prices are expected to increase by at least 40% [4] - The supply of NAND Flash products is tightening as manufacturers prioritize high-margin products, leading to increased prices for Enterprise SSDs [4] - eMMC/UFS demand is showing signs of weakness due to inventory adjustments, although Chromebook shipments are benefiting from government projects [5] - NAND Flash wafer supply is constrained as manufacturers focus on high-margin product lines, resulting in continued price increases despite weak demand in consumer markets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The DRAM market is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints and shifting demand towards high-end applications, particularly Server DRAM and HBM, while traditional PC and mobile applications face reduced capacity allocation [1][3]. DRAM Price Trends - Overall Conventional DRAM prices are expected to increase by 8-13% in Q4, with HBM blended prices rising by 13-18% [1][2]. - PC DRAM prices are anticipated to rise slightly due to limited supply as major OEMs reduce procurement volumes [3]. - Server DRAM demand is expected to grow significantly, with U.S. CSPs planning to start procurement earlier to secure supply, leading to price increases [3]. Mobile and Graphics DRAM - Mobile DRAM prices, particularly LPDDR4X, are projected to increase by over 10% in Q4 due to supply constraints and inventory buildup by manufacturers [4]. - Graphics DRAM demand remains strong, with GDDR7 prices expected to rise more than in the previous quarter due to anticipated supply shortages [4]. Consumer DRAM - Consumer DDR4 supply is limited, and despite previous price increases, demand has softened, leading to a forecasted moderation in price growth for Q4 [5]. - DDR3 prices are expected to continue rising due to preemptive stocking and supply constraints [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon showed a strong and volatile trend, mainly due to the strong price - holding atmosphere in each link of the photovoltaic industry chain. The polysilicon market had a lot of "rumors", but market transactions were relatively limited, and the anti - involution sentiment continued to ferment. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile and strong operation in the short term [2][3][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 8/15 Price | 8/8 Price | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial silicon main contract | 8805.00 | 8710.00 | 95.00 | 1.09% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - passing 553 spot | 9400.00 | 9250.00 | 150.00 | 1.62% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - passing 553 spot | 9200.00 | 9100.00 | 100.00 | 1.10% | Yuan/ton | | 421 spot | 9750.00 | 9700.00 | 50.00 | 0.52% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 spot | 9600.00 | 9500.00 | 100.00 | 1.05% | Yuan/ton | | Silicone DMC spot | 11400.00 | 12150.00 | - 750.00 | - 6.17% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon dense material spot | 46.00 | 44.00 | 2.00 | 4.55% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial silicon social inventory | 54.5 | 54.7 | - 0.2 | - 0.37% | 10,000 tons | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Supply side**: The operating rate in Xinjiang rose to 57%, and the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan increased month - on - month, showing a marginally loose supply situation. As of August 14, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 84,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas remained at 280, and the overall open - furnace rate slightly rose to 35.2% [6][7][8]. - **Demand side**: Polysilicon enterprises had a strong price - holding atmosphere, but transactions were limited near the end of the signing period. The inventory in the silicon wafer market decreased significantly, and most integrated enterprises tended to reduce production. Photovoltaic cell manufacturers mainly executed existing orders, and there might be resistance to the increase in domestic export orders. The component end showed a weak and volatile trend, and terminal demand was poor [2][6][8]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to rise to 50,599 lots, equivalent to 253,000 tons [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The automotive and photovoltaic industries held symposiums against disorderly competition. In 2024, the production capacity of Chinese chip manufacturers increased by 15%. In 2025, domestic wafer foundries will be the main force in the increase of mature - process production capacity, but price trends will be suppressed. Some enterprises are exploring ways to break through the low - level competition dilemma, such as Ruixin Micro focusing on basic capabilities and high - end markets [11]. - In the second half of 2025, the DDR4 market was in short supply, and prices rose strongly. The tight supply and demand in the DDR market also pushed up the contract price of Mobile DRAM. The third - quarter increase in LPDDR4X was the largest in a single quarter in the past decade. The demand for semiconductor hardware was growing steadily, and the storage sector was expected to continue to rise in the third and fourth quarters [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including those related to industrial silicon production, export volume, social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, production in major production areas, and prices of various products such as organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and industrial silicon [15][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated trends in the DRAM market for Q1 and Q2 of 2025, highlighting price adjustments and supply chain dynamics influenced by international conditions and demand shifts across various sectors [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections DRAM Price Trends - In Q1 2025, prices for various DRAM types are expected to decline significantly, with Conventional DRAM projected to drop by 8% to 13%. For Q2 2025, the decline is expected to narrow to 0% to 5% for Conventional DRAM, while HBM prices are anticipated to increase by 3% to 8% due to the ramp-up of HBM3e 12hi [2][4]. Supply Chain Dynamics - Major PC OEMs are increasing assembly volumes to reduce DRAM inventory levels. This is expected to lead to higher procurement from DRAM manufacturers in Q2 2025, particularly for those with low inventory levels [4][5]. - Samsung's HBM product certification is lagging, while SK hynix is focusing on Server and Mobile DRAM production, limiting the supply of PC DDR5 [4][5]. Mobile and Graphics DRAM - Mobile DRAM prices are expected to stabilize or increase slightly due to rising demand from high-end smartphones and other sectors. LPDDR5X is projected to see a price increase of 0% to 5%, while LPDDR4X may decline by 0% to 5% [6][7]. - Graphics DRAM demand is shifting towards GDDR7, with GDDR6 prices expected to decline by 3% to 8% due to increased demand from new models [6][7]. Consumer DRAM Outlook - The demand for Consumer DRAM is expected to gradually increase due to new projects like 4G/5G base station expansions. DDR4 prices are projected to rise by 0% to 5% in Q2 2025, while DDR3 prices are expected to remain stable [7].