周二，原油延续下跌趋势，布油跌破60美元/桶，美油跌至55美元附近。随着停火预期升温，市场对俄罗斯石油出口中断的担忧大幅 减弱，而此时全球原油库存已处于供应过剩状态。 报道称，特朗普表示，他与乌克兰总统泽连斯基，以及德国、意大利、芬兰、法国、英国、波兰、挪威、丹麦、荷兰及北约的领导人 进行了非常长时间且非常好的交谈。特朗普认为，现在比以往任何时候都更接近达成实现俄乌和平的"和平协议"。 俄乌停火预期升温，中断担忧大幅减弱 市场定位和波动率数据凸显了单边看空情绪。资金管理公司上周将布油净多头敞口削减至10月底以来最低水平，商品交易顾问(CTA) 群体明显偏向看跌，趋势跟踪者基本处于最大空头状态。WTI原油次月隐含波动率跌至4月以来最低水平，偏度显示明确的看跌期权 偏向。 俄乌停火谈判的最新进展让交易员得以顺势做空原油。尽管乌克兰仍在打击俄罗斯炼油设施和里海地区资产，黑海航运依然面临风 险，特朗普政府还扣押了一艘委内瑞拉超级油轮，但价格走势明确显示——每当传出和谈乐观消息时，原油都会承受下行压力。 供应端：库存高企，炼油利润收窄 在供应层面，美国能源信息署(EIA)和国际能源署(IEA)都警告称市场面临前所未有的 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the unpredictability of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (Adnoc) Murban crude oil supply, leading to frustration among traders and questioning of official production information [1] - Adnoc previously announced a reduction in July's Murban crude supply but later informed some buyers they would receive their full allocations, creating confusion [1] - The inconsistency in supply signals from Adnoc is undermining market confidence and could pose reputational risks for the company [1][2] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding Murban crude supply has led to a significant decrease in trading activity in the spot market, with only three cargoes traded in the previous month, none of which were Murban crude [1] - Some traders are shifting from spot trading to long-term contracts for more secure supply options, although transitioning away from Murban crude is challenging for many Asian refiners [2] - The uncertainty in July's supply may cause mismatches between traders' hedging positions and expected supply, potentially resulting in trading losses [2]

Oil Market - OPEC+ is likely to approve an increase in production by approximately 550,000 barrels per day at the meeting on August 3 [1] - ADNOC has set the August official selling price for Murban crude oil at $69.81 per barrel [1] - ADNOC has priced August Das crude oil at a discount of $0.60 per barrel compared to the Murban crude benchmark [1] Other Commodities - Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry forecasts a 0.4% decline in steel production for July to September, totaling 11.1 million tons, with a projected 11.5% year-on-year decrease in steel product exports to 6.09 million tons [2] - Indonesia has reached a $34 billion agreement with a U.S. company for the purchase of U.S. soybeans, corn, and energy products [2] - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association indicates that U.S. palm oil exports may decline by 15% to 20% due to tariffs imposed by Trump [2] - Thailand's Finance Minister announced a new trade proposal that offers tariff reductions on 90% of U.S. imports, with most U.S. imported goods being exempt from tariffs [2]

Group 1 - The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has set the August price for Das crude oil at a discount of $0.60 per barrel compared to the Murban crude benchmark [1]

Group 1 - The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has set the official selling price for Murban crude oil at $69.81 per barrel for August [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent has a chance to challenge $85 per barrel in the third quarter (an upward revision of $5 per barrel from last week), but in the medium to long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices, and Brent may test $50 per barrel within the year [6]. - In the short - term, due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the risk premium can be freely hyped. Fundamentally, OPEC+'s month - on - month production increase is lower than market expectations, and there are still positive factors such as a significant contraction in Iranian crude oil supply under US sanctions, low absolute inventory levels in major regions excluding floating storage, and a slowdown in the growth of US shale oil supply. Coupled with the positive sentiment from the China - US presidential call, oil prices may continue to rebound [6]. - If OPEC+ effectively implements production increases, the medium - to - long - term oversupply pressure in the crude oil market will increase. Combined with the uncertainty of the trade war, there may be a deeper decline within the year [6]. - The strategy is to hold long - only positions and take profits as appropriate, and also take profits on positive spreads as appropriate [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio drops from a high level [12]. - Overseas inflation continues to decline, and China - US "trade" relations ease [18]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing rebounds [19]. 3.2 Supply - **Country - specific supply situations**: - In Venezuela, due to intensified US sanctions, PDVSA's sour crude production is difficult to maintain. Chevron's export capacity is terminated, and there is an oversupply situation [7]. - Kazakhstan's production in May exceeded the target, mainly due to the increased production capacity of the Tengiz oil field led by Chevron and the failure of the government's negotiation on production cuts with operators [7]. - Iraq is a key country for compensatory production cuts. If the Israel - Iran conflict escalates, it may limit Iraq's crude oil exports to the Asia - Pacific market [7]. - The UAE's Adnoc reduces Murban crude oil export forecasts, which has affected its premium compared to other Middle Eastern varieties [7]. - Saudi Arabia's production in May increased slightly but was still below the target. It is expected to be the main driving force for OPEC+ production increases in the coming months [7]. - Russia's actual available idle production capacity is limited due to sanctions, and it questioned accelerating production increases at the May OPEC+ meeting [7]. - The US EIA predicts that US crude oil production will reach a record high in 2025 but will decline in 2026. Drilling activities are decreasing, and capital expenditure by shale oil companies is being cut [8]. - Iran's May crude oil production reached the highest level since August 2018, but it faces the threat of supply interruption due to the Israel - Iran conflict [8]. - **OPEC+ production strategies**: - OPEC+ shifted to a market - share strategy in 2025, accelerating the lifting of the additional 2.2 million barrels per day production cut plan agreed at the end of 2023. The production target increase has accelerated from 137,000 barrels per day to 411,000 barrels per day [8]. - There are differences among OPEC+ members regarding production increases. Russia and Oman questioned the collective decision in May, but the decision was advanced [8]. - Most OPEC+ countries are approaching their effective production capacity, and differences in production capacity assessment are a future challenge [8]. 3.3 Demand - **Asia**: - China's crude oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be around 0.8%, with a daily demand of 16.23 million barrels. Saudi Aramco's supply to China in July is slightly lower than in June, and state - owned refineries' demand for Saudi crude has increased while private refineries' demand has decreased [10]. - India's overall oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be 170,000 barrels per day on average, contributing significantly to global demand growth. Its oil product consumption in May increased year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. - Japan, South Korea, and Indian refineries will receive their "usual quantities" of Saudi crude in July, and the demand is affected by prices [10]. - **America**: - The US's crude oil imports from Iran may have decreased significantly in May, but overall imports remain strong due to large - scale inventory replenishment. The refinery utilization rate in the US Gulf Coast region reached a high this year [10]. - **Europe**: - At least three European buyers will receive their "full contractual volumes" in July, but one has reduced demand due to price increases. Aramco has raised the July formula price, and European local crude has a price advantage [10]. - **Africa**: - The domestic demand of Nigeria has been fluctuating. The Dangote refinery is diversifying its crude oil sources and reducing its dependence on domestic grades. Some market participants expect European demand to rebound in May [10]. 3.4 Inventory - US commercial inventories are declining, and inventories in the Cushing area are stabilizing but are significantly lower than historical averages [61]. - Refining margins are oscillating strongly [63]. - European crude oil inventories are rebounding, while diesel and gasoline inventories are decreasing [65]. - Domestic refined oil margins are recovering [68]. 3.5 Price and Spreads - The North American basis has a slight rebound [72]. - The month - spread has rebounded [73]. - SC is weaker than the overseas market, the month - spread has declined, and the valuation is at a low level [74]. - The net long - position has stabilized [76].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that ADNOC has revised its export forecast for Murban crude oil in August from 1.77 million barrels per day to 1.705 million barrels per day [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in export forecast indicates a decrease of approximately 4.5% in expected exports for Murban crude oil [1]