Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the unpredictability of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (Adnoc) Murban crude oil supply, leading to frustration among traders and questioning of official production information [1] - Adnoc previously announced a reduction in July's Murban crude supply but later informed some buyers they would receive their full allocations, creating confusion [1] - The inconsistency in supply signals from Adnoc is undermining market confidence and could pose reputational risks for the company [1][2] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding Murban crude supply has led to a significant decrease in trading activity in the spot market, with only three cargoes traded in the previous month, none of which were Murban crude [1] - Some traders are shifting from spot trading to long-term contracts for more secure supply options, although transitioning away from Murban crude is challenging for many Asian refiners [2] - The uncertainty in July's supply may cause mismatches between traders' hedging positions and expected supply, potentially resulting in trading losses [2]

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（7月8日） 4. 阿联酋阿布扎比国家石油公司ADNOC将8月Murban原油官方销售价格定为每桶69.81美元。 其他： 1. 胡塞武装自去年12月以来首次袭击红海商船。 2. 日本经济产业省：预计7-9月日本钢铁产量将较上一季度下降0.4%，至2011万吨；预计7-9月日本钢铁 产品出口量同比将下降11.5%，至609万吨。 3. 印尼官员：印尼与美国公司达成的340亿美元协议包括购买美国大豆、玉米和能源产品。 4. 印尼棕榈油协会：由于特朗普的关税措施，棕榈油对美国的出口可能会下降。由于关税，美国的棕榈 油出口量将下降15%至20%。 原油： 1. 消息人士：欧佩克+可能会在8月3日的会议上批准在9月再次增产约55万桶/日。 2. 美国财政部网站显示，美国发布委内瑞拉相关通用许可证，允许在7月7日或之前装船的液化石油气在 9月5日前卸载。 3. 阿联酋阿布扎比国家石油公司ADNOC将8月Das原油价格定为较Murban原油基准每桶贴水0.60美元。 5. 泰国财政部长：我们新的贸易提议对90%的美国进口商品提供关税减让。大部分美国进口商品将免征 关税。 ...

Group 1 - The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has set the August price for Das crude oil at a discount of $0.60 per barrel compared to the Murban crude benchmark [1]

Group 1 - The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has set the official selling price for Murban crude oil at $69.81 per barrel for August [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent has a chance to challenge $85 per barrel in the third quarter (an upward revision of $5 per barrel from last week), but in the medium to long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices, and Brent may test $50 per barrel within the year [6]. - In the short - term, due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the risk premium can be freely hyped. Fundamentally, OPEC+'s month - on - month production increase is lower than market expectations, and there are still positive factors such as a significant contraction in Iranian crude oil supply under US sanctions, low absolute inventory levels in major regions excluding floating storage, and a slowdown in the growth of US shale oil supply. Coupled with the positive sentiment from the China - US presidential call, oil prices may continue to rebound [6]. - If OPEC+ effectively implements production increases, the medium - to - long - term oversupply pressure in the crude oil market will increase. Combined with the uncertainty of the trade war, there may be a deeper decline within the year [6]. - The strategy is to hold long - only positions and take profits as appropriate, and also take profits on positive spreads as appropriate [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio drops from a high level [12]. - Overseas inflation continues to decline, and China - US "trade" relations ease [18]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing rebounds [19]. 3.2 Supply - **Country - specific supply situations**: - In Venezuela, due to intensified US sanctions, PDVSA's sour crude production is difficult to maintain. Chevron's export capacity is terminated, and there is an oversupply situation [7]. - Kazakhstan's production in May exceeded the target, mainly due to the increased production capacity of the Tengiz oil field led by Chevron and the failure of the government's negotiation on production cuts with operators [7]. - Iraq is a key country for compensatory production cuts. If the Israel - Iran conflict escalates, it may limit Iraq's crude oil exports to the Asia - Pacific market [7]. - The UAE's Adnoc reduces Murban crude oil export forecasts, which has affected its premium compared to other Middle Eastern varieties [7]. - Saudi Arabia's production in May increased slightly but was still below the target. It is expected to be the main driving force for OPEC+ production increases in the coming months [7]. - Russia's actual available idle production capacity is limited due to sanctions, and it questioned accelerating production increases at the May OPEC+ meeting [7]. - The US EIA predicts that US crude oil production will reach a record high in 2025 but will decline in 2026. Drilling activities are decreasing, and capital expenditure by shale oil companies is being cut [8]. - Iran's May crude oil production reached the highest level since August 2018, but it faces the threat of supply interruption due to the Israel - Iran conflict [8]. - **OPEC+ production strategies**: - OPEC+ shifted to a market - share strategy in 2025, accelerating the lifting of the additional 2.2 million barrels per day production cut plan agreed at the end of 2023. The production target increase has accelerated from 137,000 barrels per day to 411,000 barrels per day [8]. - There are differences among OPEC+ members regarding production increases. Russia and Oman questioned the collective decision in May, but the decision was advanced [8]. - Most OPEC+ countries are approaching their effective production capacity, and differences in production capacity assessment are a future challenge [8]. 3.3 Demand - **Asia**: - China's crude oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be around 0.8%, with a daily demand of 16.23 million barrels. Saudi Aramco's supply to China in July is slightly lower than in June, and state - owned refineries' demand for Saudi crude has increased while private refineries' demand has decreased [10]. - India's overall oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be 170,000 barrels per day on average, contributing significantly to global demand growth. Its oil product consumption in May increased year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. - Japan, South Korea, and Indian refineries will receive their "usual quantities" of Saudi crude in July, and the demand is affected by prices [10]. - **America**: - The US's crude oil imports from Iran may have decreased significantly in May, but overall imports remain strong due to large - scale inventory replenishment. The refinery utilization rate in the US Gulf Coast region reached a high this year [10]. - **Europe**: - At least three European buyers will receive their "full contractual volumes" in July, but one has reduced demand due to price increases. Aramco has raised the July formula price, and European local crude has a price advantage [10]. - **Africa**: - The domestic demand of Nigeria has been fluctuating. The Dangote refinery is diversifying its crude oil sources and reducing its dependence on domestic grades. Some market participants expect European demand to rebound in May [10]. 3.4 Inventory - US commercial inventories are declining, and inventories in the Cushing area are stabilizing but are significantly lower than historical averages [61]. - Refining margins are oscillating strongly [63]. - European crude oil inventories are rebounding, while diesel and gasoline inventories are decreasing [65]. - Domestic refined oil margins are recovering [68]. 3.5 Price and Spreads - The North American basis has a slight rebound [72]. - The month - spread has rebounded [73]. - SC is weaker than the overseas market, the month - spread has declined, and the valuation is at a low level [74]. - The net long - position has stabilized [76].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that ADNOC has revised its export forecast for Murban crude oil in August from 1.77 million barrels per day to 1.705 million barrels per day [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in export forecast indicates a decrease of approximately 4.5% in expected exports for Murban crude oil [1]