青侨阳光医药投资 - 月度思考 7 月 30 日，我们参加了雪球组织的一场医药主题对谈直播，其中一个问题给我们留下了深刻的印象： " 投资医 药行业最重要的是什么？是对利润的判断，对技术的判断，还是估值高低的判断？最后怎么组合出一个医药组 合？ " 这是个很基础也很重要的问题，不同人从不同视角出发会找到不一样的答案。 对我们而言，不管是做投资还是做其它工作，最重要的一定不是具体某项技能或某些知识，因为具体必然意味 着局限，作用和意义就只能局限于该事物本身；而跳出具体的"器"或"术"，从"形而上"或者说"道"的层面去探 索，我们就能找到那些更宽泛但影响也更深远的底层要素。 比如，在我们看来，医药投资最重要的， 首先是热爱、专注、诚实开放 等普适性特性， 然后才是行业认知框 架、估值定价体系、宏观策略思维等具体的能力和方法 ，至于组合构建则是有了行业认知和估值定价判断后 水到渠成的结果。 下面，也借着对这一问题探讨的机会，梳理一遍我们认为医药投资中最重要的几件事情。 1 保持热爱，才能获得源源不断的内生动力 如果驱动我们做投资的是外在的目标——赚钱，那或许前期动力不弱，但在赚到很多钱之后就难免动力消减， 很可能会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector is expected to thrive in 2025, with significant capital inflow and a focus on products with overseas potential, leading to substantial stock price increases in this segment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - From early 2025 to date, the innovative drug sector has seen an average increase of over 50%, with nearly 50 stocks rising more than 30% [1]. - The Hongtu Innovation Healthcare Fund has achieved a cumulative increase of nearly 64% since early 2025, outperforming the industry [1][5]. - Historical performance of the Hongtu Innovation Healthcare Fund shows a year-to-date return of 63.66%, ranking 92 out of 594 funds [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The long-term development trend of China's innovative drug sector remains strong, supported by national strategies and favorable capital market policies [3]. - The market for innovative drugs in China is projected to exceed 250 billion RMB in 2024, with expectations to grow to approximately 450 billion RMB by 2030 [3]. - The overall market size, including all aspects of the drug development chain, is expected to approach 5.5 trillion RMB by 2024 and surpass 20 trillion RMB by 2030 [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy of the Hongtu Innovation Healthcare Fund focuses on high-elasticity innovative drug companies, particularly those with significant clinical breakthroughs and potential for international market entry [7][11]. - Key investment targets include companies with promising clinical data and those that are expected to achieve commercial success through domestic market integration and overseas licensing [7][10]. - The fund manager has successfully captured structural opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector, leading to superior long-term performance compared to peers [12]. Group 4: Notable Stocks - Major holdings in the Hongtu Innovation Healthcare Fund include companies like Xinlitai, Shutaishen, and Yifang Biotechnology, which have shown significant price increases and promising clinical data [8][9]. - The fund emphasizes investments in companies with first-in-class (FIC) and best-in-class (BIC) potential, focusing on those that can disrupt current clinical supply [11][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by overseas licensing opportunities and supportive domestic policies [12]. - The ongoing global business development (BD) transactions and key clinical data releases are anticipated to catalyze further growth in high-value innovative drug companies [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a stable and self-consistent valuation system for guiding investment decisions, despite the inherent subjectivity and variability in company valuations [1][2]. Group 1: Valuation Channel - In a relatively stable market, companies' valuations fluctuate within a defined "valuation channel," which varies by company quality [3][6]. - The theory suggests that buying excellent companies at a premium can yield higher returns over time compared to buying mediocre companies at a discount [3][7]. - The concept of valuation channels serves as a useful metric for assessing market sentiment and identifying discrepancies in expected valuations [8]. Group 2: Valuation Leap Triggered by Business Dynamics - Valuation channels are maintained under stable market expectations, but significant changes in business growth expectations can disrupt these channels, leading to valuation leaps [9][10]. - Valuation leaps can occur rapidly, often within months, due to substantial adjustments in market expectations rather than actual performance changes [10][12]. - Historical examples illustrate that companies previously undervalued can experience upward valuation leaps when market sentiment shifts positively [11][12]. Group 3: External Market Influences - Many valuation leaps are driven by macroeconomic factors rather than fundamental business changes, leading to significant price fluctuations in stocks [14][15]. - The article notes that during market downturns, companies with stable fundamentals can still experience drastic valuation declines due to negative market sentiment [15][17]. - The current market environment has created opportunities for identifying undervalued companies with strong growth potential amidst external pressures [18]. Group 4: Case Studies and Future Outlook - The article discusses specific case studies in the Hong Kong and U.S. biotech sectors, highlighting the potential for significant valuation recovery in undervalued companies [19][20]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying business dynamics and market narratives that influence valuation trends [36][39]. - The article concludes that while the market may currently undervalue certain biotech companies, their long-term growth potential remains strong, suggesting future investment opportunities [42][43].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant potential of China's innovative drug industry, particularly highlighted by the recent large-scale licensing deal involving innovative drugs [1] - The innovative drug sector is characterized by a "bet first, collapse later" nature, making it suitable to view through a "cycle" perspective, where the most attractive aspect is the value escalation cycle of a technology or product transitioning from obscurity to a major market player [1][2] - The value escalation cycle for PD1/CTLA4 and PD1/VEGF dual antibodies began around 2020/2021, with expectations that this cycle will continue at least until 2027/2028, barring any major setbacks [2] Group 2 - The comparison between Sanofi's 707 and Ivosidenib indicates that while there may be some local improvements, it does not significantly differentiate itself enough to disrupt the value escalation cycle of Ivosidenib [4] - The introduction of Sanofi's 707 may have short-term negative impacts on the original drug companies in Hong Kong, as it reduces the potential acquisition interest from partners like SUMMIT, but long-term effects may be limited [5][6] Group 3 - The original drug companies in Hong Kong are expected to see value escalation primarily through three phases, with the current phase being the second stage that has been active for 4-5 years and is projected to continue for another 2-3 years [7][8] - The market's perception of the potential value of Ivosidenib in various cancers appears to be underappreciated, with estimates suggesting that its overseas licensing could support a market value of approximately 320-480 billion HKD for the licensing party [8][9] Group 4 - The future value expansion for companies hinges on their ability to ignite the "third stage rocket," which involves developing universally applicable therapies that can enhance the efficacy of PD1 dual antibodies [10][11] - Companies are already pursuing clinical trials for TROP2*NECTIN4 dual antibody ADCs and mRNA tumor vaccines, indicating a proactive approach to maintaining value escalation in the face of potential market shifts [11][13]