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基金经理请回答 | 光伏反内卷,进展如何?
中泰证券资管· 2025-10-24 07:03
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a phase of "anti-involution," with ongoing efforts to stabilize profits and address the core contradictions within the industry [3][5][17]. Industry Performance - Major leading companies in the photovoltaic sector, including those in silicon materials, silicon wafers, photovoltaic glass, and modules, reported significant losses in the first half of the year, indicating a challenging profit environment [3]. - The net profit for the entire photovoltaic industry in the first half of 2025 is projected to be only 3.1 billion, suggesting that current profit levels may represent a bottoming out [3]. Price Competition and Profitability - The long-term price war in the industry is deemed unsustainable, and further significant declines in profits are unlikely due to ongoing anti-involution measures and government policies [3][5]. - The focus of anti-involution efforts is primarily on improving profit margins rather than merely increasing revenues [6]. Sector-Specific Insights - The revenue in the first half of the year for sectors such as mounting brackets, inverters, and energy storage showed slight increases, indicating a relatively better competitive landscape in these areas [5]. - The inverter sector is highlighted for its technological differentiation, which contributes to customer experience and durability, making it a more attractive investment area compared to mounting brackets [6][7]. Capacity and Market Dynamics - The exit speed of homogeneous production capacity in the photovoltaic industry is slow due to the large existing capacity and the reluctance of companies to incur losses [9][10]. - The industry is undergoing a gradual process of capacity adjustment, with price changes leading production adjustments rather than immediate capacity exits [10]. Technological Trends - The introduction of advanced technologies like TOPCon is facing challenges due to rapid market saturation and price wars, despite its potential for higher efficiency [12][15]. - The industry is seeing a trend where equipment and technology advancements are driving competition, making it difficult for companies to maintain a competitive edge without continuous investment in new technologies [13][14]. Future Outlook - The focus on profit recovery is expected to be a primary theme in future trading and research within the photovoltaic sector, although a return to pre-involution conditions is considered unlikely [17].
隆基绿能2024年亏损86亿元,钟宝申:希望今年三季度实现盈亏平衡或扭亏
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 03:59
Core Viewpoint - Longi Green Energy reported significant revenue decline and net losses in 2024, marking the most challenging year since its listing, primarily due to price drops in core products and industry-wide supply-demand imbalances [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Longi Green Energy achieved revenue of 82.582 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.23%, and incurred a net loss of 8.618 billion yuan, reversing from profit to loss [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company recorded revenue of 13.652 billion yuan, down 22.75% year-on-year, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.436 billion yuan, an improvement from a net loss of 2.350 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. Industry Context - The management indicated that in 2024, the prices of silicon wafers and modules fell by 61% and 39% respectively, leading to an asset impairment loss of 8.7 billion yuan and an investment loss of 486 million yuan from affiliated silicon material companies [2]. - Despite global photovoltaic demand growth, the industry faced intensified supply-demand imbalances, causing prices to drop below production costs, which pressured the financial performance of photovoltaic companies [2]. Strategic Outlook - The management expressed a commitment to adjust operational strategies, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to mitigate losses [3]. - For 2025, the company plans to optimize production capacity structure and concentrate resources on the development and upgrade of HPBC 2.0 advanced production capacity, aiming to increase market share of BC products [3].