Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is likely to rise in the short - term but has limited upside potential, facing pressure at the [5500] price level [3]. - The supply of PVC shows a weakening trend, with high production maintained. Domestic and export demand is declining, and social inventory has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks. Although the current profit performance reflects a weak reality, under the policy expectations of capacity structure optimization, there is an increase in black and building material varieties. Attention should be paid to whether the rising coal price can repair the profits of the coal - based cost industry chain [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fundamental Supply - Demand Situation - **Supply**: There is an expectation of tightened supply at the calcium carbide/PVC end. The recent sharp rise in coal prices may strongly support costs, and attention should be paid to the upward shift of the entire industrial chain price from coal prices to calcium carbide [9]. - **Demand - Inventory**: On July 25, the domestic PVC supply - side开工率 increased, enterprises received good orders, and market arrivals were normal. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm was poor, mainly from hedgers. The total inventory in East and South China continued to increase. The total inventory in the East and South China sample warehouses was 402,900 tons, up 3.65% from the previous period and down 26.93% year - on - year [10]. - **Demand - Calcium Carbide**: This week, the calcium carbide price slightly declined. The average calcium carbide industry开工率 rose to 72.20%, up 0.9% from the previous week. In the future, most calcium carbide plants may maintain normal operations, but the increase in开工率 may be limited due to peak - shaving production in Inner Mongolia and the summer electricity peak. PVC plants have many maintenance plans in July and August, so the demand for calcium carbide is expected to decrease. If there is an unexpected reduction in supply or the rising coal price is transmitted to the cost chain, the calcium carbide price may rebound [11][75]. - **Demand - Caustic Soda**: Most chlor - alkali enterprises are operating normally with sufficient supply. Some areas are supported by plant maintenance. In terms of downstream demand, the alumina industry provides rigid support, but non - aluminum industries perform averagely. Some enterprises face certain sales pressure, so the price has no strong upward driving force [12]. - **Demand - Production Capacity**: In the first quarter of 2025, 500,000 tons of production capacity were put into operation. 900,000 tons of production capacity are expected to be put into operation from July to August, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of 6.37% [13]. - **Demand - Export**: This week, the export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 11.66% week - on - week and increased by 56% year - on - year. Exports to India are expected to slow down in summer [14]. 3.2 Disk Data - This week, both PVC futures and spot prices rose. The basis discount to the disk increased, with the East China 09 basis weakening to around - 220. The 9 - 1 spread changed little, around - 113. The 09 contract position was around 860,000 lots, and the warehouse receipts increased to around 56,400 lots [21]. 3.3 Regional and Quality Spreads - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East and South China for calcium carbide - based PVC strengthened significantly to 33, and the spread between East and North China for calcium carbide - based PVC strengthened significantly to 223 [34]. - **Ethylene - Calcium Carbide Spread**: The ethylene - calcium carbide spread weakened to - 3 [34]. 3.4 Profit Performance - **Calcium Carbide - Based Profit**: The current calcium carbide - based production capacity accounts for 74%. In areas with limited cost fluctuations and a significant increase in PVC spot prices, profits in various regions have improved significantly. North China has achieved profitability. Northwest integrated enterprises' comprehensive profit has expanded to around 680 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of purchasing calcium carbide in the Northwest is around 1,000 yuan/ton. Shandong's chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has turned from loss to profit at around 100 yuan/ton [45]. - **Ethylene - Based Profit**: The current ethylene - based production capacity accounts for about 23.5%. The profit of purchasing vinyl chloride is around the break - even point, and the profit of purchasing ethylene is a loss of 200 yuan/ton [46]. 3.5 Industrial Chain - Related Products - **Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Lanthanum Coke**: On July 25, the price of lanthanum coke remained stable. The average transaction price in the Shaanxi market was 580 - 630 yuan/ton. The开工率 of sample enterprises was 39.14%, unchanged from the previous week. In the future, the开工 rate may increase, and attention should be paid to the transmission of coal prices to lanthanum coke and calcium carbide prices [69]. - **Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Calcium Carbide**: On July 25, the calcium carbide price declined slightly. The average industry开工率 rose to 72.20%. In the future, most calcium carbide plants may maintain normal operations, but the increase in开工率 may be limited. PVC plants have many maintenance plans in July and August, so the demand for calcium carbide is expected to decrease. If there is an unexpected reduction in supply or the rising coal price is transmitted to the cost chain, the calcium carbide price may rebound [75]. - **Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Caustic Soda**: On July 25, the spot price of liquid caustic soda fluctuated slightly. The开工率 of sample enterprises was 84%, up 1.4% from the previous week, and the inventory was 408,400 tons, up 6.38% from the previous week. In the future, the supply is sufficient, and the price has no strong upward driving force [81]. 3.6 Supply - **Production Capacity Progress**: The production capacity growth rate in the third quarter is 3.18%, and the annual growth rate is expected to be 6.37%. Two ethylene - based plants of Fujian Wanhua and Bohua Development started trial production in July and are expected to achieve mass production in August. Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton ethylene - based plant is planned to be put into operation in the third quarter [85]. - **开工率 and Maintenance**: On July 25, the overall开工率 of PVC powder was 75.81%, up 0.84% from the previous week. There were new maintenance enterprises this week, and some previously maintained enterprises resumed production. The theoretical loss due to parking and maintenance this week was 71,640 tons, down 279 tons from the previous week [87]. 3.7 Import - Export - **Import**: In June 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63.80%. The cumulative import from January to June was 124,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.51%. The import sources are mainly the United States and Northeast Asia, and the import dependence is about 1% [116]. - **Export**: In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.61%. The cumulative export from January to June was 1,960,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.20%. The main destination is India. This week, the export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 11.66% week - on - week and increased by 56% year - on - year [116][125]. 3.8 Demand - **Downstream开工率**: Currently, the downstream开工率 is at a low level compared to the same period. This week, the开工 rates of the profile and film industries improved, while the pipe industry continued to decline. Domestic downstream product enterprises continued to purchase at low prices, resisted high - priced raw materials, and faced seasonal weakening due to high temperatures [137]. - **Terminal - Real Estate**: From January to June, real estate investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and sales area decreased by 3.5% year - on - year. The real estate market is still in a downturn, and PVC demand may continue to shrink [154]. 3.9 Inventory - **Production Enterprises**: As of July 24, the available inventory of PVC powder in sample production enterprises was - 467,150 tons, a decrease of 188,900 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory was 312,250 tons, a decrease of 3,250 tons from the previous period [169]. - **East and South China**: As of July 24, the original sample inventory in East China was 358,900 tons, up 3.97% from the previous period and down 29.50% year - on - year. The expanded sample inventory in East China was 587,200 tons, up 3.82% from the previous period and down 30.64% year - on - year. The sample inventory in South China was 44,000 tons, up 1.15% from the previous period and down 26.93% year - on - year [169].

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of leading mining companies, Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, is attributed to resource premium realization and capacity structure optimization, despite their stock prices remaining relatively stable after earnings announcements [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 232 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 54% from 151 billion yuan [3][4]. - Luoyang Molybdenum anticipates a net profit between 82 billion and 91 billion yuan for the same period, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 51.37% to 67.98% [3][4]. - Both companies reported significant increases in production volumes for key minerals, with Zijin Mining's copper and gold production rising by 10% and 17% respectively, while Luoyang Molybdenum's copper and cobalt production increased by approximately 12.68% and 13.05% [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite strong earnings, the stock prices of Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum have shown limited movement, indicating that market participants may be cautious about potential cyclical peaks in commodity prices [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the current risk premium for strategic resources like gold and copper is in an upward cycle, which could enhance the overall value of related stocks [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Actions - Both companies are actively pursuing acquisitions to expand their resource base, with Zijin Mining planning to acquire a large gold mine in Kazakhstan for $1.2 billion and Luoyang Molybdenum completing a deal for a gold mine in Ecuador [8][9]. - Luoyang Molybdenum has expressed intentions to continue exploring operational efficiencies and potential new acquisitions in copper and gold projects [9].

Production Capacity and Strategic Planning - The total industrial explosive production capacity managed by the company is 625,500 tons, with licensed capacity for packaged explosives at 307,000 tons and mixed explosives capacity at 318,500 tons, accounting for 50.92% of the total capacity, exceeding the target of 35% set by the "14th Five-Year" plan by 15.92 percentage points [1][2] - The company plans to dynamically allocate capacity towards strategic mineral-rich areas such as Xinjiang and Tibet to meet local market demands and enhance supply capabilities [2] Market Trends and Performance - In the first five months of 2025, Xinjiang's raw coal production reached 22.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. Despite a 17.3% month-on-month decline in April, production rebounded by 18.9% in May, indicating a strong overall growth trend [2] - The company’s mining construction contracting business in Xinjiang is thriving, with project order volumes hitting new highs, ensuring robust growth [2] Regional Expansion and Capacity Allocation - The main entity for operations in Tibet is Yipuli Sichuan Blasting Company, with plans to expand into large open-pit mining and key national projects through newly established subsidiaries [3] - The company has set up 25,000 tons of industrial explosive capacity in Tibet specifically for the Jilong Copper Mine project, with intentions to adjust internal resources based on project needs [3] Capacity Expansion Goals - The company aims to solidify its leading position in the industrial explosive sector by optimizing capacity layout, upgrading product structure, and engaging in industry consolidation [4] - The company has established a diverse compensation system linked to performance, with various incentive mechanisms in place to motivate employees and enhance productivity [4]

Core Viewpoint - Longi Green Energy reported significant revenue decline and net losses in 2024, marking the most challenging year since its listing, primarily due to price drops in core products and industry-wide supply-demand imbalances [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Longi Green Energy achieved revenue of 82.582 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.23%, and incurred a net loss of 8.618 billion yuan, reversing from profit to loss [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company recorded revenue of 13.652 billion yuan, down 22.75% year-on-year, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.436 billion yuan, an improvement from a net loss of 2.350 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. Industry Context - The management indicated that in 2024, the prices of silicon wafers and modules fell by 61% and 39% respectively, leading to an asset impairment loss of 8.7 billion yuan and an investment loss of 486 million yuan from affiliated silicon material companies [2]. - Despite global photovoltaic demand growth, the industry faced intensified supply-demand imbalances, causing prices to drop below production costs, which pressured the financial performance of photovoltaic companies [2]. Strategic Outlook - The management expressed a commitment to adjust operational strategies, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to mitigate losses [3]. - For 2025, the company plans to optimize production capacity structure and concentrate resources on the development and upgrade of HPBC 2.0 advanced production capacity, aiming to increase market share of BC products [3].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Sifang's 2024 annual report reveals significant declines in revenue and net profit, primarily due to falling prices in the nitrogen fertilizer market, particularly urea [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Hong Sifang achieved total revenue of 3.485 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.62% compared to 2023 [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 93.17 million yuan, down 41.16% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 77.17 million yuan, reflecting a 48.64% decline [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 98.26 million yuan, a significant drop of 59.71% [1]. Product Performance - The production and sales of urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer, saw a sharp decline, with sales at 176,425.90 tons, down 26.45% year-on-year, only half of the production volume [4][6]. - The overall revenue from the chemical industry segment was 3.46 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 10.66%, down 1.83 percentage points [5]. - Revenue from compound fertilizers was 3.09 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 11.03%, also reflecting a decrease [5]. Market Conditions - The domestic urea market experienced significant price fluctuations, particularly in the fourth quarter, leading to sustained low prices [2]. - The company's performance was adversely affected by the overall market conditions for nitrogen fertilizers, which saw a decline in unit gross margins [2]. Research and Development - In 2024, the company invested 67.25 million yuan in R&D, accounting for 1.93% of total revenue, a decrease of 17.21% from the previous year [10]. - Despite the reduction in R&D spending, the company developed new products, including modified compound fertilizers, but market penetration remains insufficient [10]. - The company plans to continue focusing on new technology and product development to enhance market competitiveness [10].