Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][20] Core Views - The report anticipates a 4% year-on-year revenue growth for 2QFY26, with adjusted EBITA margin at 3.5%. Revenue is expected to reach 245.6 billion yuan, driven by a 17% increase in international digital commerce and a 30% increase in cloud intelligence revenue, while the Chinese e-commerce group is projected to decline by 13% quarter-on-quarter [3][5][20] - The cloud segment is expected to continue accelerating growth with a 30% year-on-year revenue increase, while maintaining stable EBITA margins. The company is actively advancing its AI infrastructure with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan [3][11][20] - The Chinese e-commerce group is projected to achieve a GMV growth of 5% year-on-year, with a take rate increase. However, the report notes that the profit margin is expected to continue declining due to competitive pressures [3][18][20] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - Revenue for FY2026 is adjusted to 1,050.3 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 1.5%. The adjusted net profit forecast for FY2026 is revised to 108.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% decrease due to higher-than-expected investments in flash sales and AI-related costs [4][20][23] Cloud Intelligence Group - The cloud segment is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 30% year-on-year in FY26Q2, with stable EBITA margins. The company has launched several AI models and upgraded its AI infrastructure significantly [11][12][13] Chinese E-commerce Group - The report estimates a 5% year-on-year GMV growth for FY26Q2, with a focus on maintaining market share despite competitive pressures. The adjusted EBITA loss for instant retail is expected to be 36.5 billion yuan, with a peak in losses observed in August [18][19][20] Other Segments - The AIDC segment is expected to see a slowdown in revenue growth, maintaining a near breakeven performance. Other segments are projected to incur losses of around 5 billion yuan due to increased AI application costs and investments in delivery services [19][20]

本文来自微信公众号：投资人黄海 （ID：haivcconsumer），作者：投资人黄海，题图来自：AI生成 但后来的事情大家都知道了，饿了么在并入淘宝生态后迅猛发力，现在单量都要赶上美团了。同样的逻 辑下，飞猪这次也得到了淘宝的弹药支持，在整个阿里集团里的位置也不可同日而语了。 从八月份开始，在闪购之后，飞猪也非常显眼地出现在淘宝app的首页一级菜单栏。甚至淘宝app的所有 订单被分成三类，分别是正常购物、闪购还有旅游。 除了阿里之外，旅游行业的巨头当然就是大家很熟悉的携程和美团，还有早就涉足酒店业务的抖音。外 卖三国杀之后，新一波的"旅游混战"正在酝酿。 为什么酒旅行业会成为下一个被争夺的风口呢？ 之前我发过好几篇旅游行业相关的文章，之所以关注这个领域，是因为旅游行业是目前国内为数不多的 朝阳行业。 前一段时间京东、美团、阿里的外卖三国杀非常精彩，现在另外一个行业也逐渐开始出现巨头混战的苗 头了，但是留意到这个趋势的朋友还不多。这篇文章跟大家分析一下新一轮巨头混战的行业——酒店旅 游。 前两个月，阿里巴巴宣布了一个重大的战略升级，把饿了么和飞猪这两块业务并入了淘宝。 过往很长一段时间，阿里巴巴奉行的是各个事 ...

中国 证券研究 2025 年 10 月 1 日 阿里巴巴 分析师声明及重要披露，包括非美国分析师披露，见第 11 页。 摩根大通与其研究报告所覆盖的公司开展业务，或寻求与这些公司开展业务。因此，投资者应意识到其中可能存 在利益冲突，进而可能会影响本报告的客观性。投资者在做出投资决策时，本报告之观点应仅作为投资者的考虑 因素之一。 jpmsc.portal.jpmorgan.com 将 token 转化为抽成率：阿里巴巴飞轮 过去三个月阿里巴巴股价跑赢以中概互联网指数基金衡量的行业平均水 平 364 个百分点，在我们看来这是因为 2025 年 2 季度云业务收入增速好 于预期以及管理层对外卖和闪购业务投资战略做出充满信心的表述。上 周在杭州参加阿里巴巴云栖大会后，我们越发看好阿里云，这源于未来 的外部客户创收机遇（即云业务收入）及其与国内电商的协同效应。我 们认为，随着阿里巴巴的叙事从"国内电商市场份额流失方"转向"中 国互联网一线资产"，云业务和中国国内电商两方面的积极发展意味着 估值倍数应上升。我们将 2027/2028 财年云业务收入预测值上调 2%/6% ，原因是我们更看好生成式人工智能的应用和阿里云的 ...

阿里巴巴 20251008 摘要 AI 云基础设施潜力巨大，预计到 2032 年能耗需求达 16 吉瓦，需新增 约 10 吉瓦设施，投资规模达万亿人民币。芯片供应紧张状况缓解，为 云厂商带来机遇，但短期内 AI 云盈利受折旧成本影响，主要通过提升收 入和订单增速稳定市场份额。 海外 AI 云市场由微软和亚马逊主导，Token 收费稳定在每百万 15 美元 左右。新兴云厂商如甲骨文、CoreWeave 通过租赁英伟达卡抢占市场 份额。国内市场字节跳动入局，对阿里构成竞争压力，其国内 AI token 消耗量已达 55%。 阿里云业务短期内利润率受规模扩张影响承压，预计三季度 EBIT margin 维持在高单位数。PaaS 层（如数据库）和 SaaS 层毛利较高， 将成为未来利润增长点，加强 PaaS 能力是关键。 软件产业发展趋势是 Agent 自主化生成，简化用户交互，增强 Agent 性能。Copilot 战略值得关注，未来每个公司可能有数千个自主生成的 Agent。钉钉可借鉴 Copilot 战略，增强产品能力应对市场变化。 阿里巴巴在提升 Agent 记忆能力方面有哪些举措？ Q&A 阿里巴巴在四季度 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 答案在于分析的不是企业的效益和产出 ， 而是深入挖掘公司的潜在现实 ， 即其成功的动力 。 也就是说 ， 投资者不能将一项投资当作是一个静 态的资产负债表 ， 而应看作是一个不断演变的复利机器 。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：巴菲特读书会 来源：雪球 决定持有比决定买入更为重要 在日常交流中 ， 看到很多朋友都很厉害 ， 经常会投资到那些很牛的公司 。 过一段时间再谈到某只牛股的时候 ， 就会听到大家的感慨 ： 这家 公司啊 ， 涨了十倍多 ， 我也买过 ， 可惜卖早了 。 很多牛股 ， 大家为什么拿不住呢 ？ 最近在看到传奇基金经理尼克 · 斯利普的分享 ， 他也提出了类似的问题 。 他说 ， 当投资者将自己描述为成长型或价值型投资者 ， 应该要问 两个问题 ： 对于价值投资者 ， 可以问 ： " 你的投资方法中有什么因素会让你在过去20年的大部分时间里不持有凯马特的股票 ？ " 以市净率衡 量 ， 凯马特是一只便宜股票 ， 但却是一项糟糕的投资 。 对于成长型投资者 ， 可以问 ： " 你的投资方法中有什 ...

Group 1 - Cathie Wood's Ark Invest has increased its holdings in Chinese tech giants Alibaba and Baidu, indicating a renewed interest in these stocks after a four-year hiatus [1][2] - Ark Invest's flagship fund ARKK purchased 14,453 shares of Alibaba, valued at approximately $2.74 million, and has made significant investments in the company over the past week, totaling around $16.3 million [1][2] - Baidu also saw substantial purchases, with Ark acquiring 45,478 shares valued at about $6.4 million, alongside previous investments totaling $2.97 million and $6.9 million [1][2] Group 2 - The strong rebound of Chinese stocks, particularly Alibaba and Baidu, has been driven by their positioning as potential beneficiaries in the AI sector, with Alibaba's stock rising 112% and Baidu's by 57% this year [2][4] - Both companies are seen as well-positioned due to the increasing demand for domestic AI solutions amid tightening global export restrictions on high-end AI chips [4] - Despite significant stock price increases, Alibaba's dynamic P/E ratio remains at a reasonable 21, while Baidu's is even more attractive at 12, indicating strong cash flow from their core businesses supporting investments in AI and cloud computing [4][5] Group 3 - Analysts on Wall Street have responded positively, raising target prices for Alibaba to $230 and $245, citing the rapid growth of its AI cloud business as a key factor [5]

写了很多腾讯，后台很多用户私聊我，问怎样看阿里？特别是阿里最近涨幅很猛，蒋凡执掌权柄后有了 中兴之势！ 现在已经不是零售商阿里，是AI的阿里，在云服务、芯片、大模型上三箭齐发，同时闪购+到店+高德 为主站导入海量电商流量，寻找了10年之久的流量入口，终于搭建成功了。 1. 零售电商份额持续流失。零售本质就是多、快、好、省，之前基本是淘宝+天猫独霸了，现在心智完 全分散了。 好——京东自营+天猫品牌店； 多——淘宝、拼多多，抖音、快手货架也丰富起来； 快——京东； 还有菜鸟物流，蚂蚁（支付宝），海外电商板块都是实力在线，这样看上去，阿里眉清目秀， 高大威 猛！ 综合来看，阿里就是亚马逊（电商+云服务）+OpenAI（通义）+英伟达（自研芯片），简直是六边形战 士。 涨就是必然的。 我们反过来探究一下，那为啥之前不涨，跌跌不休？除了进入GP周期而不是效率周期之外，阿里本身 面对什么问题： 省——拼多多。 2. 新的战略级别流量入口始终没有办法找到。 陆兆禧集全集团之力做"来往"失败后，阿里除了同步搞了移动端，千人千面这是电商转化端，一直也同 步寻找新的线上战略级别入口，这个入口必须自己把控的，没有新的流量入口，再 ...

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：您好，请问贵公司跟阿里巴巴及英伟达有深度合作， 都是哪些项目？ （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 新宝股份（002705.SZ）9月25日在投资者互动平台表示，公司国内自主品牌产品销售目前主要以线上销 售为主，在淘宝、天猫等平台有销售，除此以外，公司目前没有与您提到的主体开展深度合作的项目。 重大信息请以公司在指定网站发布的公告为准，注意投资风险。 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud is projected to maintain its leading position in the Chinese AI cloud market by the first half of 2025, surpassing the combined total of its competitors ranked second to fourth [2] - Alibaba is the only Chinese company among the global top four AI cloud providers, alongside Google, Amazon, and Microsoft [2] Group 1: Leadership and Strategy - Wu Yongming has been leading Alibaba for two years, focusing on reshaping strategic priorities and business lines, with a clear vision for the future [4][15] - Wu emphasizes that achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is not the end goal but a new starting point towards developing Super Artificial Intelligence (ASI) [4] - Under Wu's leadership, Alibaba has seen a significant increase in stock price, reaching a four-year high [7] Group 2: Investment and Growth - Alibaba plans to invest over 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure over the next three years, which is more than the total investment of the past decade [25] - The company is focusing on a "public cloud first" strategy, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and improve product structure [25] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth has rebounded significantly, with quarterly revenue growth returning to double digits [27] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - Alibaba aims to become a leading full-stack AI service provider globally, with a focus on open-source and building the "AI operating system" of the future [37] - The company is positioning itself to be one of the few super cloud computing platforms globally, with a vision for the future of AI as a critical commodity [39] - The stock price of Alibaba has doubled this year, reflecting investor confidence in the company's new direction and long-term value [35]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Farmers' Harvest Festival showcased the integration of e-commerce and agricultural products, with 淘天集团 investing 20 billion in subsidies and promoting innovative measures to enhance sales and visibility of local agricultural products [1][3]. Group 1: Sales and Growth - 淘天集团 reported that over the past five years, Taobao and Tmall have sold more than 1.3 trillion yuan worth of agricultural products, with significant sales growth in Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Anhui provinces since 2025 [3]. - During the Harvest Festival, 淘天集团 organized over a hundred marketing activities focused on local agricultural products, leading to a 20% increase in seafood sales during the Xiangshan Fishing Festival [5]. - The sales of茂名荔枝 on Taobao increased by 216% compared to the previous year, aided by strategic partnerships and promotional activities [7]. Group 2: Innovative Marketing Strategies - 淘天集团 has developed a new model for product traceability and launched the "Seeking Taste of Mountains and Rivers" marketing IP, collaborating with local governments and enterprises to enhance the supply chain of agricultural products [3]. - The introduction of digital human live streaming has significantly boosted agricultural product sales, with a reported increase of 35 times year-on-year, totaling over 500 million yuan in sales [8][10]. - The collaboration with nine agricultural universities during the Harvest Festival aimed to promote research-based agricultural products, with expected sales of 300,000 yuan from featured products [10]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement - 淘天集团's digital human live streaming technology allows for real-time interaction and has improved the performance and commercial conversion rates of agricultural product promotions [10]. - The Harvest Festival attracted over 1 million visitors, generating sales exceeding 30 million yuan, demonstrating the effectiveness of the integrated online and offline marketing approach [5].