证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 小马智行（PONY.O） 2025 年公司亏损净额约 0.69～0.86 亿美元，Robotaxi 商业化运营持续推进 |  公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 汽车·汽车零部件 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 唐旭霞 | 0755-81981814 | tangxx@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980519080002 | | 证券分析师： | 杨钐 | 0755-81982771 | yangshan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523110001 | 事项： 公司公告：2026 年 2 月 4 日，小马智行发布 2025 年业绩预告。公司预计 2025 年录得(i)净利润约-0.69～ -0.86 亿美元，2024 年净利润为-2.75 亿美元，及(ii)归属普通股东净利润约-1.26～-1.43 亿美元，2024 年归属普通股东净利润为-2.74 亿美元。拆单季度看，2025Q4，公司净利润约 0.66～0.83 亿美元（2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 marks a significant shift for Wall Street as it begins to recognize the massive investments tech giants are making in AI infrastructure, a trend expected to continue into 2026. However, rising costs are leading to heightened expectations for investment returns [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Capital Expenditure - Major tech companies like Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon are projected to increase their capital expenditures from approximately $350 billion in 2025 to over $470 billion in 2026 [1]. - Meta's capital expenditure guidance for 2025 has been raised to a range of $70 billion to $72 billion, with expectations for 2026 spending to grow nearly 57% to over $110 billion [10]. - Amazon has increased its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $118 billion to $125 billion, driven by strong demand for AI services, with analysts predicting a growth of over 17% to exceed $146 billion [14]. Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Tesla's vehicle deliveries are expected to decline by 8.6% in 2025, from 1.79 million in 2024 to 1.64 million, while its energy business has shown growth [4]. - Microsoft is under pressure to demonstrate effective cost control while accelerating data center construction to meet AI demand, with capital expenditures expected to rise to $99 billion this fiscal year [6]. - Alphabet's capital expenditure guidance for 2025 has been raised to between $91 billion and $93 billion, with expectations for significant growth in 2026, potentially exceeding $115 billion [16]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - OpenAI has diversified its partnerships, reducing reliance on Microsoft, and has secured multiple billion-dollar agreements with companies like Nvidia and Oracle [2]. - Meta's high-cost AI strategy has faced scrutiny, especially after a disappointing launch of its Llama model, leading to adjustments in its spending strategy [10]. - Amazon's cloud services have signed a $38 billion deal with OpenAI, marking a significant collaboration that positions it competitively against other tech giants [15].

Core Insights - Pony.ai and Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to advance the commercialization of Robotaxi services in Dubai, indicating increasing competition in the Middle East's autonomous driving market [1] - WeRide, another Chinese autonomous driving company, had previously established a partnership with RTA, marking a significant milestone in the global development of autonomous driving [1] Group 1: Company Developments - WeRide received the first autonomous driving license in the UAE in July 2023, allowing for testing and operation of various autonomous vehicles on public roads across the country, which is the first national-level license of its kind globally [2] - In December 2024, WeRide and Uber will launch Robotaxi services in Abu Dhabi, marking Uber's first deployment of autonomous vehicles outside the United States and the largest commercial Robotaxi fleet outside the US and China [2] Group 2: Market Environment - WeRide has established a strong presence in the Middle East market, benefiting from a supportive policy environment as regional governments increasingly back autonomous driving technology [2] - Dubai aims to convert 25% of its transportation to autonomous driving by 2030, attracting international companies and providing a significant opportunity for WeRide to contribute to this ambitious goal [2] - The Middle East's autonomous driving market is expected to grow as more companies enter and technology continues to advance, positioning the region as a key benchmark for global autonomous driving industry development [2]