小马智行创始人兼CEO彭军表示："在深圳实现Robotaxi单位经济模型（UE）转正，是对公司技术成熟 度和商业化战略的重要验证。在中国两座一线城市相继达成这一目标，证明自动驾驶出行不仅在技术层 面可行，也已经具备规模化运营的经济可持续性。"（文猛） 新浪科技讯 3月2日上午消息，小马智行宣布其第七代Robotaxi于2026年2月在深圳实现月度单车运营盈 利转正。继去年11月在广州达成该目标后，小马智行已在两座中国一线城市实现关键突破，这标志着 Robotaxi市场化运营进一步取得实质性进展，规模化运营基础持续夯实。 新浪科技讯 3月2日上午消息，小马智行宣布其第七代Robotaxi于2026年2月在深圳实现月度单车运营盈 利转正。继去年11月在广州达成该目标后，小马智行已在两座中国一线城市实现关键突破，这标志着 Robotaxi市场化运营进一步取得实质性进展，规模化运营基础持续夯实。 据悉 得益于用户需求的持续增长和运营效率的不断优化，截至2月28日，小马智行第七代Robotaxi当月 单车单日平均净收入达到338元，单车日均订单量达23单。截至2026年2月16日，小马智行在深圳的 Robotaxi年内 ...

Core Insights - The company is ranked second in China's Level 4 autonomous driving market, holding a 15.4% market share as of the end of 2024, and is the only company to have obtained regulatory approval for autonomous driving services in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1] - The market for autonomous driving services in China is projected to grow from approximately $0.7 billion in 2025 to $39.4 billion by 2030 and $183 billion by 2035, indicating exponential growth potential [1] - The company is expected to significantly reduce its net losses in 2025 to between $69 million and $86 million, compared to $275 million in 2024, with a forecasted net loss attributable to shareholders between $126 million and $143 million [1] Group 1 - The company plans to launch its seventh-generation Robotaxi in 2025, achieving a 70% reduction in total costs compared to the previous generation, with savings of 80% in lidar and 68% in autonomous driving computing [2] - The company achieved city-level profitability for its vehicles in Guangzhou in Q3 2025, marking a critical turning point in its commercialization efforts [2] - The fleet size is expected to expand to 1,159 vehicles by Q3 2025, ahead of the target of 1,000 Robotaxis, with plans to exceed 3,000 vehicles by 2026 [2] Group 2 - The company has been included in the MSCI China Index, which will facilitate passive capital inflows [3] - The market anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 70% for revenues from 2025 to 2027, with the current price reflecting a price-to-sales ratio of about 54 times the 2026 forecast [3] - If further regulatory relaxations for autonomous driving are implemented, it could enhance the company's valuation attractiveness [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the Hang Seng Index [6]. Core Insights - Xiaoma Zhixing ranks second in China's Level 4 autonomous driving market, holding a 15.4% market share as of the end of 2024, with significant growth projected in the autonomous driving service market, expected to reach $39.4 billion by 2030 and $183 billion by 2035 [2]. - The company is increasing R&D investments despite recording losses, with expected net losses for 2025 projected to narrow significantly to between $69 million and $86 million, compared to $275 million in 2024 [2]. - The introduction of the seventh-generation Robotaxi in 2025 has reduced the total cost of the autonomous driving kit by 70%, leading to the first city-level single-vehicle profitability in Guangzhou [3]. - Xiaoma Zhixing is expanding its light-asset model through partnerships, which will enhance capital efficiency and accelerate fleet growth, with plans to exceed 3,000 vehicles by 2026 [4]. - Inclusion in the MSCI China Index is expected to attract passive capital inflows, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 70% for revenue from 2025 to 2027 [5]. Summary by Sections Market Position - Xiaoma Zhixing is the only L4 autonomous driving technology company to obtain regulatory approval for autonomous driving services in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [2]. - The company is strategically seeking overseas expansion opportunities and has already established a presence in eight countries [4]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant reduction in net losses for 2025, with forecasts ranging from $126 million to $143 million, a notable decrease from $274 million in 2024 [2]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to see a turnaround to profitability, with projected net profits between $14 million and $31 million [2]. Product Development - The seventh-generation Robotaxi is set to launch in 2025, achieving substantial cost savings in key components, which is a critical milestone for the company's commercialization efforts [3]. Strategic Partnerships - Collaborations with partners like Deep Lake West Lake Group and Sunshine Travel are enhancing Xiaoma Zhixing's operational efficiency and fleet expansion capabilities [4]. Market Outlook - The report highlights the potential for increased valuation attractiveness if regulatory policies for autonomous driving are further relaxed in mainland China [5].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 小马智行（PONY.O） 2025 年公司亏损净额约 0.69～0.86 亿美元，Robotaxi 商业化运营持续推进 |  公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 汽车·汽车零部件 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 唐旭霞 | 0755-81981814 | tangxx@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980519080002 | | 证券分析师： | 杨钐 | 0755-81982771 | yangshan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523110001 | 事项： 公司公告：2026 年 2 月 4 日，小马智行发布 2025 年业绩预告。公司预计 2025 年录得(i)净利润约-0.69～ -0.86 亿美元，2024 年净利润为-2.75 亿美元，及(ii)归属普通股东净利润约-1.26～-1.43 亿美元，2024 年归属普通股东净利润为-2.74 亿美元。拆单季度看，2025Q4，公司净利润约 0.66～0.83 亿美元（2 ...

Group 1 - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced the Alpamayo platform at CES, enabling cars to perform "inference" in the real world, and open-sourced the first inference VLA model, Alpamayo 1, to accelerate the development of safe autonomous driving technology [2] - Huang emphasized that a significant shift from non-autonomous to autonomous vehicles could occur soon, predicting that a large portion of cars will be autonomous or highly autonomous within the next decade [2] - The first cars equipped with Nvidia technology are set to hit the roads in the US in Q1 2025, Europe in Q2, and Asia later in the year [2] Group 2 - Under the dual push of policy support and technological breakthroughs, the commercialization of autonomous driving is expected to accelerate, with Goldman Sachs forecasting the Chinese Robotaxi market to grow from $54 million in 2025 to $12 billion by 2030, with a fleet of 500,000 Robotaxis by 2030 [3] - Recent domestic policies have been introduced to facilitate the deployment of autonomous driving technology, including the issuance of product access permits for L3 autonomous vehicles, marking a significant step towards commercialization [4] - As of December 2025, the first batch of L3 autonomous vehicles, including models from Chang'an and BAIC's Arcfox, received access permits for trial operations in designated areas [4] Group 3 - XPeng Motors received an L3 autonomous driving road testing permit in Guangzhou, initiating regular L3 road tests [5] - BYD announced the start of comprehensive internal testing for mass-produced L3 autonomous driving in Shenzhen, having completed over 150,000 kilometers of real-world validation [6] - The capital market for autonomous driving is accelerating, with nearly 10 companies entering the secondary market since 2025, including the dual listings of WeRide and Pony.ai on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [6] Group 4 - Pony.ai achieved a significant milestone by realizing single-vehicle profitability for its seventh-generation Robotaxi in Guangzhou, indicating the commercial viability of the unit economic model for autonomous driving in major cities [7] - The company plans to expand its Robotaxi fleet from 961 vehicles to over 3,000 by the end of 2026, while also reducing the cost of the autonomous driving kit by 20% [7] - WeRide has successfully launched its Robotaxi service in over 10 cities globally, with operations in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Abu Dhabi achieving pure unmanned commercial operation [8] Group 5 - Hesai Technology, a leader in the lidar sector, reported a significant turnaround to profitability, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 800 million yuan, a 47.5% increase, and net profit climbing to 260 million yuan [8] - The overall performance of the autonomous driving sector has been strong, with the autonomous driving index showing a 45.35% increase for the year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Pony.ai-W (02026), has achieved single-vehicle profitability in Guangzhou with its seventh-generation Robotaxi, marking a significant milestone in its commercialization efforts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The stock opened over 6% higher, currently up 6.29% at HKD 123.4, with a trading volume of HKD 765,100 [1] - Daily revenue per vehicle has reached CNY 299 [1] Group 2: Growth Projections - The company plans to expand its fleet to over 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2025 and aims for 3,000 vehicles by 2026, with a long-term goal of 100,000 vehicles by 2030 [1] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The profitability in Guangzhou is supported by technological breakthroughs and cost optimization from the seventh-generation Robotaxi [1] - The company is recognized as a pioneer in the Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving sector, leveraging world models and virtual driver technology [1] Group 4: Market Position - According to China Merchants Securities, Pony.ai-W has established a competitive moat through its technological and commercialization capabilities [1] - The company holds significant market share in both autonomous ride-hailing services and autonomous trucking, benefiting from its first-mover advantage and industry position [1]

Core Viewpoint - Pony.ai has achieved single-vehicle profitability in Guangzhou with its seventh-generation Robotaxi, marking a significant milestone in its commercialization efforts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported an average daily revenue of 299 yuan per vehicle [1] - The stock price increased by 6.29%, reaching 123.4 HKD, with a trading volume of 765,100 HKD [1] Group 2: Growth Plans - By the end of 2025, the fleet size is expected to exceed 1,000 vehicles, with a target of expanding to 3,000 vehicles by 2026 [1] - The long-term goal is to achieve an operational scale of 100,000 vehicles by 2030 [1] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The profitability in Guangzhou is supported by technological breakthroughs and cost optimization from the seventh-generation Robotaxi [1] - The company is recognized as a pioneer in the L4 autonomous driving sector, leveraging world models and virtual driver technology [1] Group 4: Market Position - According to招商证券, Pony.ai's early mover advantage and industry position allow it to capture significant market share in autonomous ride-hailing and freight services [1] - The acceleration of the deployment of the seventh-generation vehicles is expected to sustain strong growth momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Xiaoma Zhixing (Pony.ai) following its dual listing in Hong Kong, highlighting its financial struggles despite revenue growth in the autonomous driving sector [2][5]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Xiaoma Zhixing reported revenue of 181 million RMB (approximately 25.4 million USD), a year-on-year increase of 72.0% [5][12]. - The company experienced a net loss of 438 million RMB, which represents a 46.3% increase compared to the previous year, indicating deteriorating profitability [5][12]. - Non-GAAP net loss also increased by 32.85%, with losses outpacing revenue growth, reflecting inadequate cost control [5][12]. Research and Development Costs - R&D expenses reached 430 million RMB in Q3 2025, accounting for over 230% of total revenue, which is a significant factor contributing to the increased losses [6][12]. - The high R&D costs are attributed to the need for continuous investment in technology to maintain a competitive edge in the L4 autonomous driving sector [6][12]. Cash Flow and Financial Pressure - Xiaoma Zhixing reported a negative cash flow from operating activities, with a total free cash flow outflow of 173.6 million USD in the first nine months of 2025, indicating significant financial pressure [6][12]. - The company’s high cash burn rate raises concerns about its ability to sustain operations without further financing [8][12]. Commercialization Challenges - The company achieved a breakthrough in its Robotaxi business, with the seventh-generation model in Guangzhou reaching a positive unit economic model, generating an average daily revenue of 299 RMB [12][13]. - However, this success is not easily replicable in other cities due to varying operational conditions and regulatory environments [12][13]. Competitive Landscape - Xiaoma Zhixing faces intense competition from domestic rivals like Baidu and WeRide, as well as international players such as Waymo and Cruise, which adds pressure to its commercialization efforts [12][13]. - The entry of traditional automakers into the autonomous driving space further compresses the market for independent companies [12][13]. Market Sentiment and IPO Performance - Despite raising 7.7 billion HKD through its dual listing, market confidence remains low, as evidenced by the stock price dropping below the IPO price shortly after listing [8][11]. - Concerns about the company's profitability timeline, with estimates ranging from three to seven years, contribute to investor skepticism [11][12]. Industry Context - The article positions Xiaoma Zhixing's struggles as reflective of the broader autonomous driving industry, which is transitioning from a "burning cash" model to one focused on sustainable profitability [18][19]. - The ongoing challenges in achieving scalable profitability will not only impact Xiaoma Zhixing but also serve as a critical reference point for the entire domestic autonomous driving sector [19].

Core Viewpoint - Pony.ai has achieved single-vehicle profitability in Guangzhou with its seventh-generation Robotaxi, indicating a significant milestone in its commercial operations and scaling plans [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported an average daily revenue of 299 yuan per vehicle [2] - The stock price increased by 9.46% to 126.10 HKD, with a trading volume of 60.61 million HKD [2] Group 2: Operational Expansion - By the end of 2025, the fleet size is expected to exceed 1,000 vehicles, with a target of expanding to 3,000 vehicles by 2026 [2] - The long-term goal is to achieve an operational scale of 100,000 vehicles by 2030 [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The profitability in Guangzhou is supported by technological breakthroughs and cost optimizations in the seventh-generation Robotaxi [2] - The cost of the autonomous driving kit has decreased by over 70% compared to the previous generation [2] - The seventh-generation models are produced in collaboration with major manufacturers such as GAC, BAIC, and GAC Toyota, ensuring cross-model compatibility of technology solutions [2] Group 4: Business Model - Pony.ai has officially launched a light-asset cooperation model to accelerate the commercialization of autonomous driving [2] - The company is transitioning from "technology validation" to "scale profitability" through partnerships with global collaborators [2]

Core Insights - Pony.ai-W (02026) has seen a stock increase of over 10%, currently trading at 125.1 HKD with a transaction volume of 53.67 million HKD [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company has achieved single-vehicle profitability (UE positive) in Guangzhou, generating an average daily revenue of 299 RMB per vehicle [1] - The fleet size is projected to exceed 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, with a target of expanding to 3,000 vehicles by 2026, and a long-term goal of reaching an operational scale of 100,000 vehicles by 2030 [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The profitability in Guangzhou is supported by technological breakthroughs and cost optimizations in the seventh-generation Robotaxi [1] - The seventh-generation model, set to be unveiled at the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show, has reduced the cost of the autonomous driving suite by over 70% compared to the previous generation [1] - The company has established deep collaborations with major manufacturers such as GAC, BAIC, and GAC Toyota to achieve cross-model adaptability of technical solutions [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Pony.ai has officially launched a light-asset cooperation model to accelerate the commercialization of autonomous driving in partnership with global collaborators [1] - The transition from "technology validation" to "scale profitability" marks a critical leap for the company [1] - Three models of the seventh-generation vehicle have already been produced, with a third model expected to roll off the production line between late 2025 and early 2026, all sharing a unified autonomous driving suite [1]