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Gold-backed ETFs are again in focus as gold (or Au) continued its climb with a bullish trajectory towards a record high, with investors increasingly turning to such funds as a hedge against stock market volatility driven by technology stock valuations and US interest rate cuts, according to a Bloomberg report. • SPDR Gold Shares stock is showing upward bias. Where is GLD stock headed?Spot gold strengthened as much as 1.2% on Monday, approaching a level seen in October, in a continuation of a streak of gain ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,237.50 per troy ounce Wednesday, nearly the same as Tuesday’s closing price of $4,236.20. The opening price is 2.8% below gold’s all-time high of $4,358, achieved in October. Gold’s price has remained fairly steady for the past week as traders await a Fed decision Wednesday, along with clues on the policymaking committee’s 2026 rate plan. A catch-up on delayed economic data will also shape 2026 expectations for the economy and the price of gold. A jobless claims report i ...

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Core Insights - Investors are presented with a choice between the SPDR Gold Shares, which has significant assets under management, and the Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF, which offers lower costs for similar gold exposure [1][9]. Cost and Size Comparison - The Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (AAAU) has an expense ratio of 0.18%, while the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has a higher expense ratio of 0.40% [3][11]. - As of October 31, 2025, AAAU has a one-year return of 45.4%, slightly outperforming GLD's return of 45.2% [3]. - Assets under management (AUM) for AAAU stand at $2.2 billion, compared to GLD's $134.0 billion, indicating a significant size difference [3][11]. Performance and Risk Metrics - Over a five-year period, the maximum drawdown for AAAU is -20.94%, while GLD's is -21.03%, showing comparable risk profiles [4]. - The growth of an initial investment of $1,000 over five years would yield $2,092 for AAAU and $2,069 for GLD, indicating similar performance despite the size difference [4]. Fund Structure and Holdings - Both ETFs are designed to track the price of physical gold and hold only gold bullion, ensuring straightforward exposure to gold's performance [5][6]. - SPDR Gold Shares is categorized as 100% Basic Materials, while Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF is classified as 100% Real Estate, which is a labeling quirk rather than actual exposure [5][6]. Market Context - The price of gold has increased by over 50% in 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic factors, leading central banks to increase their gold reserves [7].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have stabilized after a three-day decline, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut driving dip-buyers back into the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold held steady near $3,950 an ounce after a loss of over 4% in the previous three sessions, with a widely anticipated 25-basis-point interest rate cut expected from the Federal Reserve [1]. - Following a significant rally that peaked above $4,380 an ounce, gold has retreated sharply, attributed to technical indicators suggesting the price increase was unsustainable and reduced demand for safe-haven assets amid improving US-China trade relations [2][3]. - Despite the recent pullback, gold prices are still up approximately 50% year-to-date, supported by central bank purchases and a trend of investors seeking alternatives to sovereign debt and currencies due to budget deficits [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - The surge in gold prices attracted both institutional and retail investors to gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), although recent outflows have impacted this support, with a net withdrawal of $1 billion from State Street's SPDR Gold Shares, marking the largest outflow since April [4]. - Total investor holdings in gold ETFs have seen their most significant decline in six months, indicating a shift in market sentiment [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that gold's role as a hedge against fiscal and policy uncertainty remains strong, although the recent exuberance has transitioned to a phase of consolidation [5]. - A range of $3,920 to $4,020 an ounce is seen as critical for potential base-building before another upward movement, with concerns that failing to maintain this range could lead to further sell-offs [5]. - A survey at the London Bullion Market Association's conference indicated a bullish outlook, with attendees projecting gold prices could reach nearly $5,000 an ounce within a year [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the global commodity ETF market, including its development history, market structure, user groups, and application scenarios. It also compares the Chinese and overseas commodity ETF markets, highlighting the gaps and potential for development in the Chinese market. Commodity ETFs have become a core financial tool for investors to gain exposure to commodity risks, driven by factors such as inflation hedging and portfolio diversification [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity ETF Development History 3.1.1 Overseas Commodity ETF Development History - **Stage 1 (Late 1990s - Early 2000s)**: The development of commodity ETFs began in the late 20th to early 21st century. Early products used futures contracts as underlying assets, and precious metals became the breakthrough for early commodity ETFs. In 2003, Australia launched the Gold Bullion Securities (GBS), and in 2004, the US launched the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the first large - scale and widely - adopted commodity ETF [13][14]. - **Stage 2 (2005 - 2010s)**: Commodity ETFs entered a period of rapid development with diversified product targets. The global financial crisis in 2008 led to an increase in the asset scale of gold ETFs and the diversification of commodity ETF structures, including the emergence of ETN [16][17]. - **Stage 3 (2015 - Present)**: The commodity ETF market has become more diversified. Theme - based commodity ETFs have developed rapidly, and there is a clear differentiation in investor preferences between institutional and retail investors [19]. 3.1.2 Chinese Commodity ETF Development History - **Stage 1 (2013 - 2014)**: China's commodity ETFs started late but developed rapidly. The first domestic gold ETF was launched in 2013, and several other gold ETFs were launched in 2014 [23]. - **Stage 2 (2019 - Present)**: The domestic commodity ETF market has become more diversified, covering non - precious metal sectors such as agricultural products, industrial metals, and energy [24]. 3.2 Commodity ETF Market Structure and Current Situation 3.2.1 Generalized and Narrow - Sense Commodity ETFs Generalized commodity ETFs include narrow - sense commodity ETFs (funds), commodity ETCs (physical collateral certificates), and commodity ETNs (unsecured bonds). Narrow - sense commodity ETFs can be further divided into physical, equity, and futures - based types [27]. 3.2.2 Market Scale The commodity ETF market has been growing in recent years, but its overall scale accounts for a relatively small proportion of the global ETF market. The market is highly concentrated regionally, with the US and Europe leading in terms of scale [37][40]. 3.2.3 Classification Scale Characteristics - **By Fund Type**: Narrow - sense commodity ETFs and commodity ETCs have seen stable growth in quantity and asset scale, while commodity ETNs have shown high volatility. The US is the main market for narrow - sense commodity ETFs and commodity ETNs, and Europe is the main market for commodity ETCs [42][50]. - **By Investment Target**: Asset allocation in generalized commodity ETFs is mainly concentrated in precious metals. In commodity ETNs, the composite index and energy play important roles [53][55]. 3.2.4 Concentration Characteristics and Top Products The asset scale of commodity ETFs is highly concentrated. Commodity ETCs and agricultural - themed generalized commodity ETFs have the highest concentration. The top 20 products are mainly precious - metal - based ETFs, showing concentration in fund type, asset target, and listing region [77][80][81]. 3.3 Commodity ETF User Groups and Application Scenarios 3.3.1 Investor Structure Overview Institutional investors' holding scale in the global generalized commodity ETF market has been growing steadily, while the holding ratio has remained relatively stable. Institutional investors prefer precious metals and composite index ETFs, narrow - sense commodity ETFs, and large - scale products. There are significant regional differences in investor structure [86][92][104]. 3.3.2 Investor Allocation Logic and Demand Scenarios - **Core Financial Tool**: Commodity ETFs are used for industry rotation investment, event - driven trading, theme investment, and earning roll - over returns [2]. - **Inflation Hedging**: Commodity ETFs are used to hedge inflation and are an important part of asset allocation during high - inflation periods [132][133]. - **Portfolio Diversification**: Commodity ETFs have low correlations with traditional financial assets, which can reduce portfolio volatility and enhance returns [145]. - **Currency Risk Hedging and Hedging**: Commodity ETFs can be used for currency risk hedging and hedging operations, especially suitable for small and medium - sized enterprises [149]. 3.4 Comparison of Chinese and Overseas Commodity ETFs The Chinese commodity ETF market has made great progress but still lags behind mature markets in terms of product coverage, strategy design, investor structure, and market liquidity. The Chinese market mainly consists of traditional passive products and a retail - dominated investor structure, with great potential for development [3].

Core Insights - Gold has experienced significant price increases, climbing 26.62% over the past six months and 61.51% year to date, with a notable 15.14% gain in the last month alone [1][2] - Market expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and increasing demand for safe-haven assets are likely to support gold's price growth into 2026, with projections suggesting it could reach $5,000 [2][4] Market Dynamics - The weakening U.S. dollar, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts, has made gold more affordable for international buyers, contributing to its price rise [6] - Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are prompting investors to seek refuge in gold, further enhancing its appeal [5] Investment Strategies - A long-term passive investment strategy is recommended for gold ETF investing, allowing investors to capitalize on potential short-term price corrections as buying opportunities [8] - Investors are advised to consider allocating up to 15% of their portfolios to gold, as suggested by notable investors like Ray Dalio, which contrasts with traditional advice of limiting such allocations [10] ETF Options - For physical gold exposure, investors can consider ETFs such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), with GLD being the most liquid option [13] - Gold miners ETFs, like VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM), provide access to the gold mining sector, which can amplify gains and losses compared to direct gold investments [15]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America has raised its 2026 price forecasts for gold to $5,000 per ounce and silver to $65, driven by supply tightness, policy uncertainty, and increasing investment demand [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - A projected 14% increase in gold investment demand in 2026 could elevate prices to $5,000 or higher [3]. - ETF inflows into gold funds surged 880% year-over-year in September, reaching $14 billion, indicating strong investment interest [3]. - Gold investment demand now constitutes over 5% of global equity and bond markets, up from 2.8% two years ago, suggesting a significant shift in institutional positioning [4]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for gold, with expectations of looser monetary policy due to fiscal deficits and rising debt [5]. - A potential 28% increase in ETF flows could pave the way for gold prices to reach $6,000, although this is considered a challenging target [5]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Despite an expected 11% decline in total silver demand in 2026, silver is likely to remain in deficit for the fifth consecutive year due to insufficient mining supply [6]. - The shift in the solar industry to TopCon panels, which require less silver, is impacting demand dynamics [7]. - Tightness in the physical silver market has been noted, with increased lease rates in London indicating supply constraints [8]. Group 4: Price Projections - Bank of America anticipates potential price increases for gold and silver, projecting gold could rise to $5,000 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce by 2026, despite acknowledging short-term risks [9].

Core Viewpoint - Gold is experiencing a significant surge in 2025, reaching $4,000 per troy ounce, with year-to-date gains of 50%, making it one of the best-performing investable assets [1][4]. Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts, a weakening U.S. dollar, and heightened geopolitical tensions are contributing to the demand for gold [1][4][6]. - Inflation pressures and ballooning government deficits are creating an environment reminiscent of the 1970s, which historically favored gold investments [2][6]. Market Dynamics - Gold ETF inflows have surged to $64 billion year-to-date, a stark contrast to the $23 billion outflows seen in the previous four years, indicating strong market demand [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and fiscal deficits is expected to keep conditions favorable for gold, with limited pullbacks observed recently [6]. Investment Strategies - Experts suggest that it is not too late to invest in gold, with predictions from analysts like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs indicating potential prices of $4,900 by 2026 [8][10]. - Investors are encouraged to consider fractional gold investments to lower the barrier to entry, allowing for smaller purchases [9]. Historical Context - Historical data shows that gold's bull markets have produced returns significantly exceeding typical equity returns, with a notable example being a 700% gain from 1976 to 1980 [12]. - The current cycle is expected to mirror past performance, reinforcing the argument for gold as a core portfolio position [12].