以下文章来源于格隆汇交易学苑 ，作者格隆汇小编 格隆汇交易学苑 . 以基本面为基础，专注于趋势交易 作者 | 格隆汇小编 数据支持 | 勾股 大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 2025年的美股科技板块出现了一个值得深入探讨的现象：Palantir（PLTR）在连续两个季度交出超出市场预期的财报后，股价却并未延续上 涨态势，反而从高位回落超过30%。 财报显示，公司25Q4单季营收增速攀升至70%，核心的美国商业业务增速高达137%，衡量SaaS企业效率的"Rule of 40"指标更是达到了罕 见的127%。 面对"业绩加速"与"股价回调"的显著背离，本文试图通过拆解其业务基本面、商业化进程及竞争壁垒，探究这是否是市场在极度乐观后的理性 修正，抑或是主力资金进行筹码交换的"洗盘"动作。 01 市场回顾：业绩与股价的显著背离 在回顾2025年Q4财报季时，Palantir无疑是一个极具争议的案例。 从数据层面看，PLTR延续了Q3的强劲势头。 继Q3业绩超预期并引发市场对空头头寸（如Michael Burry的9.12亿美元看跌期权）的关注 后，25Q4的财报数据进一步验证了其增长逻辑 。单季营收达 ...

The data mining and AI specialist could benefit from force modernization trends.There's no denying that artificial intelligence (AI) was all the buzz over the past couple of years, and 2026 is shaping up to be another AI-dominated year. It isn't just Wall Street and Main Street that have the AI bug.Just last month, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), which President Trump rebranded the "Department of War," released its outline for rapid AI deployment, dubbed the AI Acceleration Strategy, with the ultimate ...

3 February 2026 | 6:21AM EST Equity Research Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Further gains in wallet share in 2026 catalyzed by enterprise AI deployments PLTR 12m Price Target: $182.00 Price: $147.76 Upside: 23.2% Palantir is indicated up 5% after hours post reporting 4Q revenue 5% above the Street and EBIT margin ~500ps above. 2026 revenue guidance is 14% above the Street and EBIT margin is ~700bps above. Palantir remains one of only a handful of software companies that is clearly benefiting from AI deploymen ...

Accessible version Palantir Technologies Do not miss the 'Maven' voyage; Reiterate Buy and PO of $255 Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 255.00 USD | Price: 147.76 USD A warning to slow adapters, the clock is ticking Actions have consequences; for Palantir their intentional actions on how to go-to- market, develop products, and be an enabler of AI-decision making continues to be met with exponential growth. We view PLTR's 2025 rule of 40 score of 106% and 118% outlook for 2026 as a warning to peers, being an "AI c ...

2月3日，美股AI应用领头羊Palantir Technologies（PLTR）2025财年第四季度的财报震惊市场：营收、利润率、现金流等核心指标全面爆发，增长 势头远超华尔街最乐观的预期。 随后的电话会议更是将市场情绪推向沸点，公司股价盘后飙升近7%。这场会议不仅展示了一份堪称"历史性"的成绩单，更罕见地给出了关于AI在 企业端从"尝试"转向"规模化变现"的明确信号。管理层并未止步于复述惊人的财务数据，而是反复强调一个核心逻辑：市场对AI的需求已经跨越 了单纯的模型认知，进入了对"确定性交付"和"运营杠杆"极度渴求的全新阶段。 CEO亚历克斯·卡普（Alex Karp）的表态充满信心且极具攻击性： "公司的增长速度简直不可思议……我们在美国的营收增长了93%，总营收增长了70%。" "我们的'40法则'得分达到了127%……这是任何其他公司都无法企及的数字。" "那些已经跨越鸿沟的客户——AI拥有者（AI-haves）——正在定义未来的行业，而那些仍然停留在对岸的——AI贫乏者（AI-have- nots）——正在为生存而战。" 对于一个长期被质疑估值过高、商业模式复杂的软件公司而言，这样的表态不仅仅是炫 ...

Palantir于美东时间2月2日盘后发布了2025年四季度的业绩。整体来看很不错，基本没啥可挑刺的地方。 尤其是Q4增长重回加速，包括前瞻指标情况，直接缓解了市场对其高估值所依赖的高增长持续性的担忧。 不过从盘后的股价反馈来看（上涨不到8%），市场似乎相对以往更理性一些，如果按照24年到25年上半年的情绪，至少会来个10%以上的涨幅。背后又 有什么影响因素？ （1）美国政府地区：斩获大单，淡季不淡 美国政府收入被视作Palantir的护城河，本季度主要是前期合同的收入确认，拉动收入增速提高至60%。12月10日Palantir新拿下了一个价值4.48亿美元的海 军订单——与美国海军共同推出ShipOS，该系统将Foundry以及AIP技术应用在美国海外作业领域。 新财年初始的这一个季度，基本是政府淡季，财年初始一般审批没那么快，因此采购需求往往会延后进行。 淡季不淡恰恰印证了海豚君上季度说的采购体系改革反而利好Palantir的观点。除此之外，我们认为美国政府对Palantir的预算不断，可能还与Palantir的合 作生态联盟有关，通过与原本已经参与政府项目建设的工业机械、建筑、军事等企业合作，共同给政府 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, overall revenue surged 70% year-over-year, marking the highest growth rate as a public company [4] - The Rule of 40 score reached 127, up 46 points year-over-year and 13 points quarter-over-quarter [4][17] - Full-year 2025 revenue grew 56% year-over-year, with guidance for full-year 2026 revenue at $7.190 billion, representing 61% growth year-over-year [17][29] - Adjusted operating income for Q4 was $798 million, representing a 57% margin, exceeding prior guidance by 500 basis points [18][26] - Full-year adjusted free cash flow was $2.3 billion, representing a 51% margin and 82% growth year-over-year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. commercial business grew 137% year-over-year and 28% sequentially, while U.S. government business grew 66% year-over-year and 17% sequentially [4][18] - Fourth quarter commercial revenue grew 82% year-over-year to $677 million, with full-year commercial revenue growing 60% year-over-year to $2.073 billion [21] - Fourth quarter government revenue grew 60% year-over-year to $730 million, with full-year government revenue growing 53% year-over-year to $2.402 billion [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. revenue in Q4 grew 93% year-over-year to $1.076 billion, with full-year U.S. revenue growing 75% year-over-year to $3.320 billion [19] - International commercial revenue grew 8% year-over-year in Q4 to $171 million, while full-year international commercial revenue grew 2% year-over-year to $608 million [22] - Fourth quarter international government revenue grew 43% year-over-year to $160 million, with full-year international government revenue growing 47% year-over-year to $547 million [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on delivering real-world value through AI, positioning itself as a leader in enterprise software that maximally leverages AI models [5][10] - The strategy includes moving customers from AI adopters to AI-native enterprises, emphasizing the importance of speed to production and transformational scale [8][10] - The company is committed to investing in product development and elite technical talent while maintaining GAAP profitability [26][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in entering 2026 with strong momentum, highlighting the convergence of two decades of development into current success [9] - The management noted that the demand for advanced software solutions is growing, particularly in the U.S. government sector, driven by global threats and budgetary pressures [9][41] - There is a recognition of the challenges in international markets, particularly in Europe, where adoption of advanced products is lagging [41][42] Other Important Information - The company closed its highest-ever quarter of TCV bookings at $4.3 billion, up 138% year-over-year [19][24] - Customer count grew 34% year-over-year to 954 customers, with revenue from the top 20 customers increasing 45% year-over-year to $94 million per customer [20][24] - The company ended Q4 with $11.2 billion in total remaining deal value, an increase of 105% year-over-year [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company thinking about its international business and potential reacceleration? - Management indicated that the challenge lies in the ability of allies to recognize the need for advanced products, with a focus on the U.S. market due to high demand [41][42] Question: Has there been a change in corporate hesitancy to implement AI? - Management noted that there is a shift towards customers recognizing the value of AI, with more serious inquiries and a willingness to engage in larger projects [47][51] Question: Is there potential for developing additional operational systems like ShipOS? - Management confirmed that there is interest in expanding the operational systems to other military applications, indicating a broad scope for future developments [58]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, overall revenue surged 70% year-over-year, marking the highest growth rate as a public company [3] - The Rule of 40 score reached 127, up 46 points year-over-year and 13 points quarter-over-quarter [3][17] - Full year 2025 revenue grew 56% year-over-year to $4.475 billion, with Q4 U.S. revenue growing 93% year-over-year to $1.076 billion [18][19] - Adjusted operating income for Q4 was $798 million, representing a 57% margin, exceeding prior guidance by 500 basis points [18][26] - Full year adjusted free cash flow was $2.3 billion, representing a 51% margin and 82% growth year-over-year [18][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. commercial business grew 137% year-over-year and 28% sequentially, while U.S. government business grew 66% year-over-year and 17% sequentially [18][24] - Fourth quarter commercial revenue grew 82% year-over-year to $677 million, with full year commercial revenue growing 60% year-over-year to $2.073 billion [21] - Fourth quarter government revenue grew 60% year-over-year to $730 million, with full year government revenue growing 53% year-over-year to $2.402 billion [23][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. business now accounts for 77% of total revenue, up 93% year-over-year [3] - Customer count grew 34% year-over-year to 954 customers, with trailing 12-month revenue from top 20 customers increasing 45% year-over-year to $94 million per customer [19][20] - International commercial revenue grew 2% year-over-year to $608 million, while international government revenue grew 47% year-over-year to $547 million [22][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on leveraging AI to transform customer operations, moving them from AI adopters to AI-native enterprises [4][7] - Palantir aims to deliver real-world value by maximizing the use of AI models in production, distinguishing itself from competitors [4][5] - The company is committed to investing in product development and elite technical talent while maintaining GAAP profitability [26][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in entering 2026 with strong momentum, highlighting the convergence of two decades of development into current success [9] - The company anticipates continued demand for AI solutions, particularly in the U.S. government sector, driven by global threats and budgetary pressures [9][41] - Management acknowledged challenges in international markets, particularly in Europe, where adoption of advanced products is slower [41][42] Other Important Information - The company closed its highest-ever quarter of TCV bookings at $4.3 billion, up 138% year-over-year [19][24] - Adjusted gross margin for Q4 was 86%, with adjusted expenses increasing 34% year-over-year due to investments in AIP and technical hiring [26][27] - The company ended Q4 with $11.2 billion in total remaining deal value, an increase of 105% year-over-year [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company thinking about its international business and potential reacceleration? - Management noted that while there is significant demand in the U.S., challenges exist in international markets due to the need for advanced products and the purchasing structures of allied countries [41][42] Question: Is there a change in customer hesitancy towards AI implementation? - Management observed a shift in customer conversations, with more clients recognizing the effectiveness of Palantir's solutions and seeking to accelerate implementation [47][51] Question: Are there opportunities for new operational systems in defense? - Management confirmed ongoing discussions about expanding capabilities beyond current offerings, including potential applications in various military systems [58][59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, overall revenue surged 70% year-over-year, marking the highest growth rate as a public company, with U.S. business revenue growing 93% year-over-year [3][17] - The Rule of 40 score reached 127, up 46 points year-over-year and 13 points quarter-over-quarter, indicating strong growth and profitability [3][28] - Full year 2025 revenue grew 56% year-over-year to $4.475 billion, with a guidance for 2026 revenue of $7.190 billion, representing 61% growth year-over-year [17][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. commercial business grew 137% year-over-year and 28% sequentially, while U.S. government business grew 66% year-over-year and 17% sequentially [18][24] - Fourth quarter commercial revenue grew 82% year-over-year to $677 million, with full year commercial revenue growing 60% year-over-year to $2.073 billion [20][21] - Fourth quarter government revenue grew 60% year-over-year to $730 million, with full year government revenue growing 53% year-over-year to $2.402 billion [23][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. market accounted for 77% of total revenue, with significant growth driven by AI adoption [3][4] - International commercial revenue grew 8% year-over-year, while international government revenue grew 43% year-over-year [22][24] - Customer count increased by 34% year-over-year to 954 customers, with trailing 12-month revenue from top 20 customers increasing 45% year-over-year to $94 million per customer [19][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on leveraging AI to transform customer operations, moving them from AI adopters to AI-native enterprises [4][5] - Palantir aims to maintain its unique position in the market by delivering real-world value through its software, emphasizing the importance of ontology and AIFD [4][10] - The company is committed to investing in product development and elite technical talent to sustain growth and profitability [26][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in entering 2026 with strong momentum, highlighting the convergence of two decades of development into current success [9][30] - The company acknowledges challenges in international markets but emphasizes the strong demand and unique position in the U.S. [40][41] - Management noted that the AI revolution is creating significant opportunities for growth, particularly in defense and commercial sectors [49][50] Other Important Information - The company achieved a milestone with U.S. business revenue surpassing $1 billion for the first time [17] - Adjusted operating income for Q4 was $798 million, representing a 57% margin, with full year adjusted operating income of $2.3 billion [18][26] - The company ended the quarter with $11.2 billion in total remaining deal value, reflecting a 105% year-over-year increase [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company thinking about its international business and potential reacceleration? - Management indicated that while there is significant demand in the U.S., challenges exist in international markets due to differing purchasing structures and readiness to adopt advanced products [39][40] Question: Has there been a change in customer hesitancy towards AI implementation? - Management noted a shift in customer conversations, with more clients now recognizing the effectiveness of their solutions and seeking to accelerate implementation [43][45] Question: Is there an opportunity for new operational systems in defense? - Management confirmed ongoing discussions about expanding operational systems beyond current applications, indicating a strong interest in integrating solutions across various military needs [49][50]

Q4 Business Update ©2026 Palanr Technologies Inc. 2025 Disclaimer Safe Harbor This presentaon contains "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of the federal securies laws, and these statements involve substanal risks and uncertaines. All statements other than statements of historical fact could be deemed forward-looking, including, but not limited to, statements regarding our financial outlook, product development, distribuon, and pricing, expected benefits of and applicaons for our soware platform ...