Palantir（NASDAQ：PLTR ）的业绩持续亮眼 —— 美国商业企业纷纷投入 AI 软件以提升运营效率，而这家公司正从中受益。但无论未来十年这家企业 级 AI 软件公司能增长多少，它都很难撑起当前庞大的股票估值，就像 2000 年互联网泡沫后的那些股票一样。分析师对这只股票的投资观点是极度看 空，因为投资者现在正在玩一场危险的游戏。 2025年第二季度，收入飙升48%，首次突破10亿美元。美国商业收入增长了惊人的93%，但6月份季度的销售额仅达到3.06亿美元。 Palantir能实现这么高的增长，很大程度上是因为它基本上还处于 AI 业务的起步阶段。未来几年，当营收规模达到 50-100 亿美元时，增速就会放缓。 其实，CEO 亚历克斯・卡普在股东信中无意中给投资者提了个醒：经过 20 多年的发展，得益于多项技术的融合，公司业务仿佛刚从 "虚拟初创期" 走出 来，而那些质疑者也渐渐消失了。 经过多年的投入，也经历了一些人的嘲讽，我们的业务增长速度已大幅加快。诚然，怀疑者现在少了，因为他们已经被磨平，并在某种程度上 屈服了。然而，我们看不到任何停顿或妥协的理由。 这是一个陡峭而向上的攀登——这一上升 ...

Core Viewpoint - Palantir's performance remains strong as U.S. businesses increasingly invest in AI software to enhance operational efficiency, but the company's current stock valuation is difficult to justify, reminiscent of post-2000 internet bubble stocks, leading analysts to adopt a bearish outlook on the stock [1][18]. Group 1: Company Performance - Palantir is a leading player in the enterprise AI software sector, reporting a 64% increase in U.S. commercial accounts, reaching 485 accounts [3]. - Revenue surged by 48% in Q2 2025, surpassing $1 billion for the first time, with U.S. commercial revenue growing an impressive 93%, although quarterly sales in June only reached $306 million [3][5]. - The total contract value for Palantir this quarter reached $2.3 billion, with an annual contract value of $684 million and an average contract duration of three years, indicating strong future demand [7]. Group 2: Growth and Valuation Concerns - Palantir's high growth rate is attributed to its early-stage position in the AI business, with expectations of revenue growth slowing as it scales to $5-10 billion in revenue over the next few years [5]. - The company's stock valuation is considered excessive, with stock-based compensation leading to a market cap increase of nearly $28 billion, while projected revenue is only expected to reach $4.15 billion [8][11]. - Analysts project that Palantir's stock price is currently 12 times its revenue target for 2033, and even considering high profit margins, the stock price reflects a 30 times multiple on projected earnings per share [12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - The market has not accurately reflected the risks associated with Palantir, with a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 100, which could diminish the value of future stock-based compensation [15]. - Over the past five years, Palantir's stock price has increased by 1870%, while its business revenue has only grown by 244%, highlighting a disconnect between stock performance and business fundamentals [16]. - Despite high risks, there is potential for the stock price to rise further, with recent momentum suggesting a possible increase to $200, but this also amplifies the downside risk [18].

Palantir首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普（Alex Karp）带领这家军事软件公司跻身全球25家最具价值公司之列。图片来源：Andrew Caballero-Reynolds—Getty Images 亚历克斯·卡普，这位满头卷发的防务软件公司Palantir首席执行官，在应对批评方面早已驾轻就熟。今年4月，在华盛顿特区举办的以科技政策为主题 的"山谷论坛"接受采访时，一名抗议者从楼座朝他大声叫嚷，卡普却相当冷静地回应，告诉观众他认为对方有权表达自身观点。 然而本周——在Palantir于周一公布格外亮眼的财报后——卡普难得停下来，享受公司迅猛的发展势头，并对批评者予以回击。 总部位于丹佛的Palantir本周首次实现季度营收突破10亿美元，其增长数据远超分析师预期。Palantir股价飙升至每股超160美元，较去年同期增长555%。 截至周二收盘，Palantir市值已逼近4090亿美元，成为全球第23大最具价值公司，紧随强生公司（Johnson & Johnson）之后，后者的营收是Palantir的23倍 有余，员工数量是其35倍有余。 在周一的财报电话会议上，这位拥有新古典主义社会理论博士学位的卡普开 ...

作者丨 Stone Fox Capital 编译 | 华尔街大事件 Palantir( NASDAQ: PLTR )刚刚公布了又一个精彩的季度业绩，但股价却没有上涨。这家企业人 工智能软件公司在财报发布后实现了双顶，并于近期跻身全球十大 最具价值科技公司榜单。由于 市场对Palantir的关注度一如既往地低迷，分析师的 投资策略 仍然是极度看跌该股。 Palantir 公布了 2025 年第一季度的出色 业绩，营收飙升至 2200 万美元，超出预期。这家企业 AI 软件公司公布的 3 月份季度营收为 8.84 亿美元，其中美国商业收入同比增长高达 71%。 该股刚刚跻身市值最高的十大科技公司之列。这家企业人工智能公司目前的市值超过 2800 亿美 元，略高于 Salesforce （ CRM ），位列第十。 | | PARGEST A'S, TEPU PAINLAIAIES DI IUMKIVE! PAL | | | --- | --- | --- | | NAME + | MARKET CAP + | FORWARD PRICE-TO-EARNINGS 7 | | MICROSOFT | $3.26 tri ...