CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARY COMPANIESCondensed Consolidated Balance Sheets(In millions, except shares)December 31,December 31,20252024AssetsCurrent assets:Cash and cash equivalents$26.9$27.7Restricted cash0.91.6Receivables, less provisions of $2.7 at December 31, 2025 and $2.5 at December 31, 2024460.8425.6Inventories648.3684.6Prepaid expenses and other current assets85.968.1Total current assets1,222.81,207.6Property, plant, and equipment, at cost1,179.81,152.0Less: accumulated depreciation570.0515.3Property ...

分组1 - Wall Street analysts expect Reliance to report quarterly earnings of $2.80 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 26.1% [1] - Revenues are anticipated to reach $3.38 billion, which is an 8.2% increase from the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 0.3% in the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment of initial estimates by analysts [1] 分组2 - Analysts project 'Net Sales- Carbon Steel' to be $1.84 billion, representing a 9.5% increase year-over-year [4] - 'Net Sales- Alloy' is expected to reach $146.15 million, indicating a 2.1% increase from the prior year [4] - 'Net Sales- Stainless Steel' is forecasted at $476.93 million, showing a 0.8% increase compared to the previous year [4] 分组3 - The estimate for 'Net Sales- Aluminium' is $587.58 million, suggesting a 10% year-over-year change [5] - The average selling price per ton sold is projected to be $2275.56, up from $2170.00 in the same quarter last year [5] - The consensus estimate for 'Shipments (Tons sold)' stands at 1.51 million, compared to 1.44 million in the year-ago quarter [5] 分组4 - Analysts expect 'Tons Sold - Aluminium' to reach 77.25 thousand, an increase from 75.80 thousand reported last year [6] - The average prediction for 'Tons Sold - Stainless Steel' is 70.95 thousand, up from 67.70 thousand in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Tons Sold - Alloy' is estimated at 28.06 thousand, compared to 27.80 thousand from the previous year [7] 分组5 - 'Tons Sold - Carbon Steel' is projected to be 1.26 million, an increase from 1.19 million reported last year [7] - Reliance shares have increased by 14.2% in the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's decline of 0.3% [7] - Reliance holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating it is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [7]

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The copper price fluctuated significantly this week, with the US's ability to siphon inventory waning, but global copper consumption remains strong, and the copper fundamentals are still supply - constrained and demand - driven. The copper price is expected to rise in the medium - term, and the stabilization time depends on the precious metals' stabilization [1]. - The aluminum price fluctuated sharply this week due to multiple factors. If there is a price correction, consider going long, and a deterioration in the Iran situation may push the price up [1]. - The zinc supply side has issues like declining TC and marginal tightening of domestic ore, while the demand side is seasonally weak. The market is optimistic about zinc's long - term allocation, and attention should be paid to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [2]. - The nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in production and weak demand. The Indonesian nickel ore quota reduction is a short - term sentiment factor [3]. - The lead's supply and demand contradiction is easing, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term, focusing on the downstream's Spring Festival stocking enthusiasm after the regeneration maintenance [7]. - The tin price fluctuated sharply this week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see due to large macro - sentiment fluctuations. In the long term, the price may decline significantly in the second half of 2026 if the macro situation changes [10]. - The industrial silicon's supply is shrinking, with a de - stocking expectation in February. The price is expected to fluctuate with costs and move in a cycle - bottom range in the long term [11]. - The lithium carbonate's short - term fundamentals are strong with a de - stocking trend. If the intermediate inventory further decreases, there is a large space for positive arbitrage between months [11]. - The stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in production, entering the demand off - season, and a slight increase in inventory. The Indonesian quota news is a short - term sentiment factor [14]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - The copper price showed two - way large - amplitude fluctuations this week, and the overall consumption is good. The copper price is expected to rise in the medium - term, and the short - term stabilization depends on precious metals [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum price fluctuated sharply due to seasonal factors, external disturbances, and supply increments. Consider going long on price corrections, and the Iran situation may impact the price [1]. Zinc - The zinc supply side has problems like declining TC and marginal tightening of domestic ore. The demand side is seasonally weak, and there are opportunities for reverse - arbitrage [2]. Nickel - The nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in production, weak demand, and the Indonesian quota reduction as a sentiment factor [3]. Lead - The lead's supply and demand contradiction is easing, and it is recommended to short - sell at high prices in the short term, focusing on downstream stocking after regeneration maintenance [7]. Tin - The tin price fluctuated sharply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long term, it may decline significantly in the second half of 2026 if the macro situation changes [10]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon's supply is shrinking, with a de - stocking expectation in February. The price is expected to fluctuate with costs and move in a cycle - bottom range in the long term [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate's short - term fundamentals are strong with a de - stocking trend. There is a large space for positive arbitrage between months if intermediate inventory decreases [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in production, entering the demand off - season, and a slight increase in inventory. The Indonesian quota news is a short - term sentiment factor [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is currently in a consolidation phase. Last week, Indonesia's review of the compliance of port logistics in the nickel industrial park increased the risk of supply disruptions, and the rainy season in the main production areas poses a challenge to the stability of raw material supply. In December, the net import volume of nickel products increased significantly, while weak downstream demand led to a further accumulation of inventory contradictions. However, as nickel ore supply tightens and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, the nickel price still has upward momentum [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Nickel Price and Market Sentiment**: The nickel price is in a volatile state. The Shanghai Nickel 2602 contract opened at 141,500 yuan/ton and closed at 148,010 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly increase of 4.71%. The overall market sentiment shows that although there are short - term supply disruptions, the long - term supply - demand situation may drive the price up [3][4][9] - **Nickel Ore**: As of January 26, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with grades of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% were 30, 59, and 78.5 dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1, 4, and 0 dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% nickel ore also increased. The supply is affected by the rainy season, with mining and shipping in the main production areas severely disrupted. The port inventory of nickel ore decreased to 7.36 million wet tons as of January 23, a week - on - week decrease of 5.03% [33][36] - **Refined Nickel**: In December 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output was 31,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.7%. The inventory continued to accumulate, with the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increasing to 66,300 tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 4.38%. The cost of electrolytic nickel production also increased slightly [45][49][56] - **Nickel Intermediate Products**: As of January 26, the FOB prices of MHP and high - grade nickel matte increased. In December 2025, Indonesia's MHP and high - grade nickel matte production increased, while the MHP import volume decreased and the high - grade nickel matte import volume increased [41] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In December 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly output decreased to 35,000 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.47%. The market is in a state of supply - demand game, with some downstream manufacturers adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The cost of nickel salt production provides strong support, and the price is in a volatile and consolidating state [59][65] - **Ferronickel**: In December 2025, the national ferronickel production (metal content) decreased to 21,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.07%. The supply side remains at a high level, and the price is approaching the upper limit that steel mills can bear, with a key contradiction between cost and profit [70][72] Stainless Steel Market - **Stainless Steel Price and Market Performance**: The stainless steel futures market was strong last week. The main contract opened at 14,290 yuan/ton and closed at 14,725 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.15%. The spot price of the 304 variety also increased [76] - **Stainless Steel Production**: In December 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel production decreased to 3.2605 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.66%. It is expected that the production in January 2026 will increase to 3.4065 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.48% [78] - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: As of January 23, the stainless steel social inventory decreased to 921,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61%. The inventory is still on a downward trend, but the speed has slowed down [81] - **Stainless Steel Cost**: The cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased to 14,009 yuan/ton as of January 27, a week - on - week increase of 1.53%, mainly due to the increase in raw material prices [85] Industry News - PT Gag Nikel in Indonesia was fined for environmental audit defects, and the regulatory mechanism is becoming stricter [7] - The Indonesian Commercial Competition Supervisory Commission pointed out monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the Morowali Industrial Park in Central Sulawesi and required the opening of port services and management [7] - Jilin Jien Nickel Industry Co., Ltd.'s 60,000 - ton nickel sulfate project was officially put into operation on December 31, 2025 [7] - The nickel mine of Vale Indonesia suspended mining activities due to the unapproved RKAB quota in 2026, but the smelting project is still in production [7] - Shengtun Mining Group Co., Ltd. terminated the investment in the 40,000 - nickel - metal - ton high - grade nickel matte project in Indonesia [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to medium - term, before the New Year's Day, funds take profits, causing base metals to rise and then fall. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. After copper, aluminum, and tin stop falling, low - buying and long - position opportunities can be considered. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply and demand, so the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. - Different metals have different price trends: copper prices are expected to be strong due to strong supply contraction expectations; alumina prices are under pressure with weak cost support; aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strong due to positive macro expectations; aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strong with cost support; zinc prices will oscillate with non - ferrous metals due to the divergence of domestic and foreign inventory trends; lead prices may weaken in supply and demand despite rebounding with non - ferrous metals; nickel prices will oscillate due to Indonesian policy expectations; stainless steel prices will oscillate as nickel iron prices rise; tin prices will oscillate at a high level due to the resilience of rigid demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: China's copper smelters set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/pound. In November 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to November was 11.76%. On December 29, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the contract [7]. - Logic: The US economy is resilient, and the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Copper mine supply disruptions increase, and the long - term processing fee hits a record low. Chinese copper smelters plan to reduce production, strengthening the supply contraction expectation. Demand is weak in the off - season, and LME's position limit reduces the risk of a short squeeze [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On December 29, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina rose, and the national weighted index also increased. The alumina warehouse receipt decreased [7][8]. - Logic: Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity fluctuates, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the inventory is still accumulating. Raw material prices are weak, and the cost support is general. The warehouse receipt is being destocked, but there is pressure on the upper side of the price [8]. - Outlook: Alumina prices are expected to oscillate [8]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On December 29, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods rose. In November 2025, China's unforged aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. South32 raised the offer price of aluminum ingot premiums to Japan [9]. - Logic: The macro outlook is positive. Domestic production capacity is high, while overseas power shortages may tighten supply in the long term. High aluminum prices suppress demand, and inventory accumulates [9][10]. - Outlook: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strong. In the medium - term, the price center may rise [10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On December 29, the price of Baotai ADC12 increased, and the warehouse receipt increased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started trial production [11]. - Logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate increased, but there are still risks of production cuts in the medium - term. Demand may weaken marginally after the end of the automotive seasonal sales rush [11]. - Outlook: In the short - and medium - term, aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On December 29, the spot prices of zinc in different regions had different premiums to the main contract. As of December 29, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. In November 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports increased [12][13]. - Logic: The macro outlook is positive. Short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and smelter profits decline, reducing zinc ingot production. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, and demand is average. In the short - term, zinc ingot exports will continue, and social inventory may decline. In the long - term, supply may increase while demand growth is limited [13]. - Outlook: In the short - term, zinc prices will oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, there is a possibility of price decline [13]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On December 29, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots also rose. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the futures warehouse receipt increased slightly [14]. - Logic: The spot premium decreased, and the original - recycled price difference increased. The price of waste batteries rose, expanding the smelting profit of recycled lead, and production is expected to increase. Demand from electric bicycles weakens, and the battery factory's operating rate declines marginally [14][15]. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On December 29, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt increased, and the LME nickel inventory decreased. The average price of high - nickel pig iron rose. Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore RKAB and the mineral benchmark price calculation formula [15][16][17]. - Logic: Domestic nickel production decreased in November, but Indonesian production increased, and overall supply pressure remains. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is weak. If Indonesia's RKAB plan is implemented, the supply - demand balance will improve [18]. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [18]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt decreased. The average price of high - nickel pig iron rose. Some Indonesian nickel mines face fines [19]. - Logic: Nickel iron prices rise, providing cost support. Stainless steel production is expected to decline in December. Inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipt is at a low level [20]. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [21]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On December 29, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt decreased. The spot price of tin ingots rose [21]. - Logic: Tin supply is a major concern. Chinese imports from Myanmar increase, but there are still risks. Indonesian supply may be restricted in Q1 2026. African production is limited. Demand is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the growth of related industries [21]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [21]. 3.2行情监测 - Copper: No specific monitoring information provided [24]. - Alumina: No specific monitoring information provided [39]. - Aluminum: No specific monitoring information provided [52]. - Aluminum Alloy: No specific monitoring information provided [65]. - Zinc: No specific monitoring information provided [76]. - Lead: No specific monitoring information provided [89]. - Nickel: No specific monitoring information provided [103]. - Stainless Steel: No specific monitoring information provided [119]. - Tin: No specific monitoring information provided [129]. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2258.87, down 0.70%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2676.44, with a daily decline of 0.01%, a 5 - day increase of 3.18%, a 1 - month increase of 6.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.95% [147][149].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **European Steel Industry**, highlighting significant policy shifts and market dynamics affecting both **Carbon Steel** and **Stainless Steel** sectors [6][7][8]. Core Insights and Arguments Policy Changes - The **EU's proposal** to halve import quotas and double safeguard duties to 50% represents a strong protectionist stance, introducing additional import frictions due to the **Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)** [6][7]. - Current **HRC price gains** are primarily policy-driven, while end-user consumption remains weak in construction and manufacturing sectors [6]. Carbon Steel Sector - **Bull Case**: Preference for **voestalpine** due to its local-for-local strategy, superior margins, and exposure to Railway Systems, which provides earnings resilience [7]. - **ArcelorMittal** is noted for having the greatest operating leverage to policy tightening, benefiting from lower utilization rates and the ability to grow volumes [9]. - **Least Preferred**: **Salzgitter** and **thyssenkrupp** due to their higher cash needs and extensive decarbonization spending programs [9]. Stainless Steel Sector - New safeguards and the rollout of CBAM are expected to reduce import penetration by approximately **20%**, supporting pricing from current depressed levels [8]. - **Acerinox** is favored for its resilient earnings profile and growth prospects through US expansion and high-margin alloys business [10]. - **Aperam** is recognized for its diversified business model and operating leverage to any European recovery [10]. Financial Performance and Valuation - **ArcelorMittal** shares have significantly re-rated this year, with a target price of **€33.70** [9]. - **voestalpine** maintains relatively resilient EBITDA/t during the downturn, with manageable decarbonization risks [9]. - **thyssenkrupp** shares have doubled year-to-date, driven by optimism around German defense and infrastructure revenue, but face execution risks in unlocking value [9]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that **construction** and **automotive** sectors are key demand drivers for steel [19][20]. - **European steel production** is projected to be influenced by ongoing economic conditions and policy changes, with a focus on sustainability and decarbonization efforts [17][19]. Additional Insights - The **EU steel import quotas** for various products indicate a high utilization rate for imports from Turkey, India, and South Korea, while the UK and Serbia show lower utilization [88]. - The **stainless steel trade flows** reveal significant imports from Taiwan, India, and South Korea, indicating a diversified supply chain [91]. Conclusion - The European steel industry is navigating a complex landscape shaped by policy changes, market dynamics, and evolving demand from key sectors. Companies like **voestalpine** and **Acerinox** are positioned favorably, while others face challenges related to cash flow and execution risks. The focus on sustainability and decarbonization will continue to influence investment strategies and market performance in the coming years [6][7][8][9][10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **European Steel Industry**, highlighting significant policy shifts and market dynamics as of November 2025 [6][7][8]. Core Insights - **Policy Changes**: The EU has proposed to halve import quotas and double safeguard duties to 50%, marking a strong protectionist stance. This may lead to additional policy tailwinds with the upcoming CBAM review [6][7]. - **Market Conditions**: Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) price gains have been primarily policy-driven, while end-user consumption remains weak in construction and manufacturing sectors [6][7]. Company Analysis Carbon Steel - **Preferred Companies**: - **ArcelorMittal**: Offers the greatest operating leverage to policy tightening due to lower utilization rates, allowing for volume growth and import displacement [9]. - **voestalpine**: Maintains resilient EBITDA/t during downturns and has manageable decarbonization risks, enhancing free cash flow [9]. - **Least Preferred**: - **Salzgitter**: Faces intensified cash spending on decarbonization initiatives, with current valuations lacking a safety margin [9]. - **thyssenkrupp**: Trading at a premium to its sum-of-the-parts valuation, with execution risks in portfolio simplification [9]. Stainless Steel - **Preferred Companies**: - **Acerinox**: Strong near-term earnings profile due to US exposure and high-margin alloys business, with attractive growth prospects from US expansion [10]. - **Aperam**: Diversified business model but faces challenges from weak European demand [10]. - **Least Preferred**: - **Outokumpu**: Lacks exposure beyond stainless steel, leading to lagging earnings momentum [10]. Demand Drivers - Key demand drivers for steel include **construction** and **automotive** sectors, with significant contributions from various regions [19][20]. - **Automotive Demand**: New vehicle registrations in Western Europe, the US, and China are tracked, indicating varying trends across these markets [27][28][29]. Supply Dynamics - **Production Trends**: Global steel production is shifting towards Asia, with significant output from China, the EU, and the US [17][66][67]. - **Inventory Levels**: Steel inventories across the value chain are monitored, with implications for pricing and supply stability [70][71]. Trade Flows - **Import Quotas**: The report details EU steel and stainless steel quotas by product, indicating utilization rates and import sources [88][91]. - **Net Trade Flows**: China remains a significant player in steel exports, with detailed statistics on monthly exports to the EU [76][77]. Economic Indicators - **Steel Pricing**: Historical pricing trends for EU and China HRC are analyzed, with implications for gross profit margins [97][98]. - **EBITDA Trends**: The report discusses EBITDA per tonne projections and historical performance, providing insights into profitability trends in the steel sector [115][116]. Conclusion - The European steel industry is navigating a complex landscape shaped by policy changes, market dynamics, and shifting demand patterns. Key players like ArcelorMittal and voestalpine are positioned favorably, while others face challenges that could impact their valuations and operational resilience [6][9][10].

Core Insights - Ryerson Holding Corporation reported third quarter revenue of $1.16 billion, which is in line with guidance, with average selling prices increasing by 2.6% and tons shipped decreasing by 3.2% compared to the previous quarter [4][5][6] - The company experienced a net loss of $14.8 million, or a diluted loss per share of $0.46, compared to a net income of $1.9 million in the previous quarter [8][4] - Ryerson ended the quarter with total debt of $500 million and net debt of $470 million, reflecting a decrease from the previous quarter [4][8] Financial Highlights - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $1,161.5 million, a decrease of 0.7% from Q2 2025 but an increase of 3.1% year-over-year [3][4] - Tons shipped in Q3 2025 were 485,000, down 3.2% from Q2 2025 and unchanged from Q3 2024 [3][4] - Average selling price per ton increased to $2,395, up 2.6% from Q2 2025 and 3.1% year-over-year [3][4] - Gross margin contracted to 17.2%, down 70 basis points from Q2 2025 [6][3] Operational Insights - The company executed a self-help strategy to manage operations amid ongoing challenges, including weak demand and tariff pricing conditions [5][6] - Areas of weakness included OEM contract shipments and carbon steel margin compression, while strengths were noted in transactional sales growth [5][6] - Operating expenses decreased by 1.5% compared to Q2 2025, driven by lower variable expenses [7][3] Debt and Liquidity - Ryerson recorded a cash outflow from operating activities of $8.3 million in Q3 2025, compared to an inflow of $23.8 million in Q2 2025 [8][4] - The company’s global liquidity, including cash and available credit, was $521 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $485 million at the end of Q2 2025 [8][4] Shareholder Returns - A quarterly cash dividend of $0.1875 per share was declared, payable on December 18, 2025 [9][4] - No share repurchases occurred during the quarter, with $38.4 million remaining under the existing authorization [10][4] Merger Agreement - Ryerson entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Olympic Steel, with shares to be converted based on a fixed exchange ratio [11][12] - The completion of the acquisition is subject to customary closing conditions, including stockholder approvals [12][11] Outlook - For Q4 2025, Ryerson expects customer shipments to decrease by 5% to 7% quarter-over-quarter, with anticipated net sales between $1.07 billion and $1.11 billion [13][4] - Average selling prices are expected to remain flat to up 2%, with LIFO expenses projected between $10 million and $14 million [13][4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **European Steel Industry**, highlighting significant policy shifts and market dynamics as of October 2025 [6][7][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Policy Changes**: The EU's proposal to halve import quotas and double safeguard duties to 50% indicates a strong protectionist stance, which may lead to additional policy tailwinds from the upcoming CBAM review [6][7]. - **Market Conditions**: Hot-rolled coil (HRC) price gains are primarily policy-driven, while end-user consumption remains weak in construction and manufacturing sectors [6][7]. - **Carbon Steel Outlook**: - **Bull Case**: Preference for voestalpine due to local-for-local strategy, superior margins, and exposure to Railway Systems, which provides earnings resilience [7]. - **ArcelorMittal** is noted for its operating leverage to policy tightening, with lower utilization rates allowing for volume growth and import displacement [7]. - **Least Preferred**: Salzgitter and thyssenkrupp due to cash burn and execution risks [7]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: - Anticipated gradual repricing due to policy tightening and CBAM rollout, expected to reduce import penetration by approximately 20% [8]. - **Preferred Companies**: Acerinox for its U.S. footprint and high-alloy mix, and Aperam for its diversified business model [8][10]. - **Least Preferred**: Outokumpu due to lack of exposure beyond stainless steel [8]. Financial Performance and Valuation - **ArcelorMittal**: Despite a strong long-term investment case, the recent share re-rating is misaligned with earnings impacts from potential Ukraine rebuild, leading to a more balanced risk-reward profile [9]. - **voestalpine**: Maintains resilient EBITDA/t during downturns, with manageable decarbonization investments minimizing free cash flow burn [9]. - **thyssenkrupp**: Shares have doubled year-to-date, but the valuation appears to be at a 20-30% premium to its sum-of-the-parts (SotP) valuation, indicating execution risks [9]. - **Salzgitter**: Expected cash burn to intensify due to decarbonization spending, with current valuation levels not providing sufficient margin of safety [9]. Demand Drivers - Key demand drivers for steel include **construction** and **automotive** sectors, with significant contributions from building and infrastructure [20][21]. - **Automotive Demand**: New vehicle registrations in Western Europe and the U.S. are critical indicators of steel demand, with trends showing fluctuations in production and registrations [27][28][29]. Supply Dynamics - **Global Steel Production**: The center of gravity for steel production is shifting towards Asia, with significant contributions from China [18]. - **EU and U.S. Production**: Annualized steel production in the EU and U.S. is monitored, with trends indicating varying levels of output [65][66]. Trade Flows and Import Dynamics - **EU Steel Imports**: The report details the import quotas and utilization rates for various countries, highlighting Turkey, India, and South Korea as significant contributors [88][89]. - **Stainless Steel Trade**: The report outlines the trade flows for stainless steel, with India and Taiwan being major import sources for the EU [90][91]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the steel market is cautious, with a focus on balancing supply and demand amid changing policy landscapes and economic conditions [6][7][8]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Analysts recommend a selective approach to investments in the steel sector, favoring companies with strong fundamentals and strategic positioning [7][9][10]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the European steel industry's current state and future outlook.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a callback buying strategy, considering the continuous tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold at low prices in the long term [1] - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, and increased macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider gradually taking profits on domestic - foreign positive spreads and pay attention to reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, but with potential policy - supported price increases from Indonesia [3][4] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term trade friction uncertainties and potential price - support policies from Indonesia [9] - For lead, the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation between 17,000 and 17,400 next week, with a potential weakening trend in the future [12] - For tin, follow the macro sentiment in the short term, wait and see, and consider holding at low prices near the cost line in the medium - to - long term [15] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is balanced in Q4, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the long term [16] - For lithium carbonate, the price has high elasticity after supply - side disturbances are realized and strong downward support before such disturbances [16] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price data shows changes in various indicators from September 29 to October 13, such as a 55 increase in spot premium and a 2926 increase in SHFE warehouse receipts [1] - Macro - level: Trump's tariff announcement led to a 4.5% drop in LME copper on Friday. The impact may be less than the Qingming Festival disturbance. There is still room for negotiation, and the progress of the South Korea negotiation should be monitored [1] - Fundamental: Smelting production cuts exceeded expectations, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. After the price drop on Friday, the volume of pricing and receiving goods is expected to increase next week, leading to inventory reduction. Pay attention to the stability of copper cable production [1] Aluminum - Price data shows changes in aluminum prices, alumina prices, and inventory from September 29 to October 13, such as a 190 decrease in the Shanghai aluminum ingot price [1] - Fundamental: The operating capacity is increasing slightly. The production of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded in September. There is seasonal inventory accumulation due to the holiday effect. The global economic recovery and Fed's rate - cut expectations coexist with Sino - US trade uncertainties, causing a divergence in domestic and foreign market trends [1] Zinc - Price data shows changes in zinc prices, inventory, and other indicators from September 29 to October 13, such as a 100 decrease in the Shanghai zinc ingot price [2] - Supply: Domestic TC is decreasing, and imported TC is increasing. Domestic mines will be tighter from Q4 to Q1 next year, while overseas mines had an unexpected increase in Q2. The smelting end is slightly recovering in October [2] - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. Some overseas smelters face production difficulties due to processing fees [2] - Strategy: The domestic fundamentals are poor, but the export window may open. Due to increased macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [2] Nickel - Price data shows changes in nickel - related prices from September 29 to October 13, such as a 1300 decrease in the SHFE nickel spot price [3] - Fundamental: Pure nickel production remains high. Demand is weak, and inventory is stable domestically but increasing overseas. The short - term fundamentals are weak [3][4] - News: The protests in Indonesia have subsided, but there are still disturbances in the mining end, and the policy side has a motivation to support prices [4] Stainless Steel - Price data shows a decrease in stainless - steel prices from September 29 to October 13, such as a 50 decrease in the 304 cold - rolled coil price [9] - Fundamental: Steel mills' production in October is slightly increasing. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs are stable, and inventory has increased during the holiday [9] - Policy: There is potential price - support from Indonesian policies, and trade friction uncertainties have increased [9] Lead - Price data shows changes in lead - related prices and inventory from September 29 to October 13, such as a 9293 decrease in the SHFE inventory [12] - Supply: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, and the production is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The primary lead production may decrease partially, and the recycled lead production will increase, with a total increase of 20,000 - 30,000 tons [12] - Demand: The battery production rate increased this week, but the finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day holiday, the demand may weaken [12] - Price forecast: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,000 and 17,400 next week and may weaken in the future [12] Tin - Price data shows changes in tin - related indicators from September 29 to October 13, such as a 4990 decrease in the tin position [15] - Supply: The processing fee of tin ore is low, and some domestic smelters have cut production. Overseas supply is expected to recover in October, and Indonesian exports have resumed [15] - Demand: The solder market has slightly recovered during the peak season. Domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level [15] - Strategy: Follow the macro sentiment in the short term, wait and see, and consider holding at low prices near the cost line in the medium - to - long term [15] Industrial Silicon - Price data shows changes in industrial - silicon - related basis and warehouse receipts from September 29 to October 13, such as a 120 decrease in the 421 Yunnan basis [16] - Supply: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang has resumed production, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. There is a strong expectation of production cuts in November [16] - Outlook: The supply - demand is balanced in Q4, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the long term [16] Lithium Carbonate - Price data shows changes in lithium - carbonate prices, basis, and warehouse receipts from September 29 to October 13, such as a 450 decrease in the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price [16] - Supply: Overseas mines are reluctant to lower prices, and traders are reluctant to sell. Salt plants are less willing to accept high - priced lithium ore [16] - Demand: The pre - holiday inventory - building has almost ended. The spot basis is weak, and most transactions are at a discount [16] - Outlook: The price has high elasticity after supply - side disturbances are realized and strong downward support before such disturbances [16]