图片来源：灵宇宙 推荐语 本期我们有幸邀请到了灵宇宙的创始人顾嘉唯。他的履历堪称一部"人机交互"的亲身演进史：从微软、百度的"技术少帅"，在"象牙塔"之巅探索未来，到亲 手创办物灵科技、在商业战场淬炼重生。他的每一步，都精准地踩在了 人与机器关系变革 的关键节点上。 当AI硬件的浪潮以前所未有的热度涌来，无数玩家涌入这条拥挤的赛道。就在本月，顾嘉唯创办的灵宇宙刚刚宣布完成由滴滴、国方创新等知名机构参投 的2亿元PreA轮融资，市场的真金白银再次印证了这股热潮。在这场关于"AI硬件终局"的大讨论中，顾嘉唯给出了一份源于实战的答卷。亲历过前沿技术 的"静默期"，也在商业熔炉中淬炼重生，这些极致的经历让他对技术、产品与商业的融合，沉淀下一套独特的创业哲学。 第一部分：个人历程 —— 远见与淬炼 ZP： 外界对您的经历有很多解读，从微软、百度"少帅"，到创办物灵科技，再到今天的灵宇宙。能否请您亲自串讲一下，您眼中自己这十几年来的关键节 点和心路历程？ 顾嘉唯： 这段经历其实是一回事，始终围绕"下一代人机交互"。但不同阶段的"责任边界"和"心态"完全不同。 科学家是技术的引领者，被象牙塔保护着去探索边界；而创业者是企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft is a global leader in software development and support services, focusing on enhancing productivity and business operations across various sectors [2][6]. Company Segments - Microsoft operates through three primary segments: - Productivity and Business Processes, accounting for about 50% of sales, includes products like Microsoft Office and Dynamics 365 [3]. - Intelligent Cloud, making up around 41% of sales, is driven by Azure and includes GitHub and server products [4]. - Personal Computing, which covers Windows operating systems, Surface devices, and Xbox gaming services [4]. Competitive Landscape - Microsoft faces competition from major technology companies such as Amazon (AWS), Google (Google Workspace), Apple, and Oracle in various sectors [5]. Unique Value Proposition - Microsoft holds a competitive advantage through its diversified product portfolio and the integration of artificial intelligence across its ecosystem, particularly in Azure and productivity software [6][11]. Recent Financial Performance - In Q1, Microsoft reported adjusted earnings of $4.13 per share, with revenues growing 18% year-over-year to $77.67 billion, surpassing estimates [7][8]. - The Intelligent Cloud division generated $30.9 billion, with Azure revenue growing 40% year-over-year [8]. Future Outlook - The fiscal second quarter sales forecast is between $79.5 billion and $80.6 billion, slightly higher than previous expectations [9]. - Azure revenue is expected to grow 37% year-over-year next quarter, which is a decrease from the current quarter's growth rate [10]. Investment and Growth Strategy - Microsoft is strategically positioned to leverage the AI boom, supported by a $368 billion backlog for Azure and a growing user base for Microsoft 365 Copilot [11][12]. - The company has a net income margin of over 36%, significantly higher than the sector average, indicating strong profitability [14]. Technical Analysis - Microsoft's stock has shown a one-year price performance increase of approximately 25%, outperforming the S&P 500 [17]. - The stock is currently rangebound, with resistance at $555 and support around $495 [18]. Long-term Positioning - Microsoft continues to invest in AI infrastructure and partnerships, maintaining a competitive edge in enterprise technology [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Recent media reports suggest that major US tech giants are accelerating their withdrawal from China, but the actual impact of this is minimal and exaggerated by sensational headlines [1][3]. Group 1: Company-Specific Analysis - Microsoft primarily manufactures the Surface devices in China, with annual sales around 3 million units, indicating that any potential withdrawal would have a limited impact on the market [5]. - Amazon's operations in China are mainly focused on server outsourcing, which has been minimal, and the Kindle production has already ceased, suggesting that a withdrawal would not significantly affect the industry [7]. - Google's manufacturing in China is also limited, with its phones no longer being produced there and only a few server products being affected, indicating that the overall impact of a potential withdrawal is negligible [7]. Group 2: Supply Chain Considerations - Even if these companies reduce their manufacturing in China, they would still rely on Chinese supply chains, as many of their operations in Southeast Asia are supported by Chinese companies [9]. - The Chinese supply chain is integral not only for final assembly but also for core technologies, quality, and cost advantages that are difficult to replicate in other regions [9].

Core Viewpoint - The capacitive stylus industry is experiencing continuous growth driven by the upgrade of consumer electronics, the popularization of digital education, and the increasing demand for handwritten interaction experiences. The market is evolving from accessory products to core input tools, with expanding demand in various applications such as education, office work, and creative tasks [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - The global capacitive stylus market was valued at $1,117.12 million in 2020 and is projected to reach $1,490.68 million by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.48% from 2020 to 2024 [2]. - By 2031, the market is expected to grow to $2,118.71 million, with a CAGR of 5.12% from 2025 to 2031 [3]. Market Distribution - The majority of the global capacitive stylus consumption market is concentrated in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America regions. In 2024, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for 39.65% of global sales, while North America will hold 31.37% [4]. Product and Application Insights - Active styluses hold a significant market share, with a projected sales share of 74.99% in 2024. In terms of applications, tablets are expected to account for 45.81% of sales in 2024 [5]. Competitive Landscape - Major global manufacturers include Apple and Microsoft, with the top three companies expected to hold a combined market share of 37% by 2024. The industry is anticipated to become increasingly competitive in the coming years [6]. Industry Characteristics - The capacitive stylus industry features a wide range of applications across various devices, including tablets, laptops, smartphones, and learning machines, covering sectors such as education, design, and office use [9]. - Rapid product upgrades are occurring, evolving from single-touch capabilities to multifunctional features like Bluetooth connectivity, pressure sensitivity, and shortcut keys, enhancing user interaction experiences [10]. - The manufacturing technology barrier is moderate, making capacitive styluses suitable for large-scale promotion due to their strong adaptability [11]. Favorable Factors for Development - Continuous growth in consumer electronics, particularly in devices like iPads and Surface tablets, is driving market demand [12]. - There is an increasing user demand for more natural and precise interaction methods, positioning styluses as potential alternatives to traditional mouse and keyboard inputs [13]. - Technological advancements and cost reductions in core components, such as pressure-sensitive ICs and capacitive recognition chips, are enhancing product performance while lowering costs [14]. Challenges Facing the Industry - Intense homogenization in competition, particularly in the mid-to-low-end market, is leading to insufficient product differentiation and potential price wars that could impact overall industry profitability [15]. - The dependency on brand terminal manufacturers means that changes in manufacturer policies or screen technology can significantly affect demand fluctuations [16]. - Compatibility issues arise from the need for active styluses to match proprietary chips or protocols, limiting cross-platform development [17].

Company Overview - Microsoft is a global technology leader with a diverse product ecosystem that includes software, cloud infrastructure, and devices [4] - The company's strategy emphasizes scalable cloud solutions and integrated productivity tools, leveraging deep enterprise relationships and robust cloud infrastructure [4] - Microsoft generates revenue primarily from software licensing, cloud subscriptions, enterprise services, and device sales, serving a wide range of customers including enterprises, governments, and individual consumers [6] Financial Performance - As of Q2 2025, Microsoft reported a trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue of $270.01 billion and a net income of $96.64 billion [2] - The company has experienced double-digit growth in both top and bottom lines year over year for the last five quarters, with the exception of Q2 2024, where net income grew by 9.7% [7] - The cloud computing segment has been a significant driver of growth, with a year-over-year increase of 22% last quarter [7] Investment Insights - Microsoft stock closed at $503.32 on July 11, 2025, reflecting a 10.9% increase over the past year, although it underperformed the S&P 500 by 0.75 percentage points [5] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio is 37.7, while the trailing P/E ratio is 39, which is relatively high compared to its 20-year average of 24.8 [5][10] - Microsoft is expected to invest approximately $80 billion in AI-related infrastructure in 2025 to enhance its cloud capabilities [8] Holdings and Stake - Signal Advisors Wealth increased its stake in Microsoft by acquiring 10,122 additional shares during Q2 2025, bringing its total holdings to 36,773 shares [1] - Microsoft now constitutes 1.46% of Signal Advisors Wealth's 13F assets under management (AUM) as of Q2 2025 [2] - The top five holdings of Signal Advisors Wealth include various ETFs, with Microsoft being a significant component of their portfolio [5]

Core Viewpoint - The next-generation Xbox is expected to shift from AMD to Qualcomm's ARM-based Snapdragon chips, indicating a significant transformation in hardware and design philosophy for Microsoft's gaming console [1][2]. Group 1: Hardware Transition - The new Xbox is likely to adopt ARM-based Snapdragon chips, marking a major shift away from the AMD x86 architecture that has supported Xbox for over a decade [2][3]. - This transition aligns with reports suggesting that the next Xbox will feel more like a hybrid of a gaming console and a PC, potentially running a Windows system and supporting various software, including classic Xbox games through emulators and third-party PC game stores like Steam and Epic [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - A senior sales executive from Qualcomm indicated that the collaboration with Microsoft involves developing next-generation Surface and Xbox products based on Snapdragon solutions, highlighting the close partnership between the two companies [2][3]. - Microsoft's long-term hardware roadmap aims to launch the next Xbox by 2027, which is consistent with previous reports and suggests a focus on creating a flexible and forward-looking gaming system [3].

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet, the parent company of Google, is facing significant challenges that have led to a 17% decline in its stock this year, contrasting with the S&P 500's slight dip of 1% [1][2] Group 1: Alphabet's Challenges - The weak macro environment is negatively impacting Alphabet's ad sales, while competition from OpenAI's ChatGPT and other generative AI platforms is intensifying [2] - Regulatory pressures from the U.S. Department of Justice are pushing Alphabet to sell Chrome and share its valuable search data with competitors [2] - Analysts predict that Alphabet's revenue and earnings will grow by 11% and 19% respectively by 2025, but the company risks becoming a slow-growth stock similar to IBM [4] Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft has successfully transformed its business model under CEO Satya Nadella, adopting a "mobile first, cloud first" strategy since 2014, which has reduced its reliance on desktop applications [6] - From fiscal 2014 to fiscal 2024, Microsoft's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11%, while earnings per share (EPS) rose at a CAGR of 16%, with the stock increasing nearly 840% over the past decade [8] - Analysts expect Microsoft's revenue and EPS to grow at a CAGR of 14% and 15% respectively from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2027, supported by its investments in OpenAI and cloud services [10] Group 3: Oracle - Oracle has also transformed into a cloud company over the past decade, replacing many on-premise applications with cloud-based services and expanding its cloud infrastructure [11] - From fiscal 2014 to fiscal 2024, Oracle's revenue and EPS grew at a CAGR of 3% and 5% respectively, while the company repatriated overseas cash and bought back 35% of its shares [12] - Analysts project Oracle's revenue and EPS to rise at a CAGR of 13% and 19% respectively from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2027, driven by growth in the AI market [13]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. equity market is facing challenges in 2025 due to economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and a trade war with China, but high-quality companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle are well-positioned for long-term growth [1][2][3]. Microsoft - Microsoft has transitioned from a software license model to a subscription-based model, resulting in predictable and high-margin revenue streams [4][5]. - The company's diversified business segments, including Microsoft 365, Azure, and LinkedIn, contribute to steady cash flow and high customer retention [5]. - Microsoft's aggressive AI strategy, particularly its partnership with OpenAI, enhances enterprise adoption of its products [6]. - Wall Street projects Microsoft's revenue and earnings to grow annually by 11.9% and 12.3%, respectively, with a forward P/E ratio of 29.5x, lower than its five-year average of 33x [7][8]. Amazon - Amazon's ecosystem extends beyond e-commerce to include AWS, digital advertising, and AI initiatives, maintaining its long-term growth despite trade war disruptions [9]. - AWS, which accounted for 17% of revenue in 2024, contributed over 58% of operating income, with an annualized revenue run rate of $115 billion [10]. - Amazon invested $8 billion in AI and is developing over 1,000 generative AI applications, enhancing productivity and reducing costs [11]. - The company expanded same-day delivery sites by 60% year over year in 2024, improving customer convenience [12]. - Amazon's share price has decreased by nearly 29% from its all-time high, trading at a forward P/E of about 31.3x, significantly lower than its five-year average of 55.4x, presenting a buying opportunity [13][14]. Oracle - Oracle's stock has declined nearly 35% from its 52-week high, making it an attractive option for long-term investors due to its role in AI infrastructure and cloud services [15]. - The company's Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) increased by 62% year over year to $130 billion, indicating strong future revenue potential [16]. - Oracle's cloud infrastructure is growing at 51% year over year, and it is building a significant AI training infrastructure with Nvidia's chips [17]. - Management anticipates 15% revenue growth in fiscal 2026 and 20% in 2027, along with a 25% increase in quarterly dividends [18]. - Oracle trades at 19.1 times forward earnings, below its five-year average of 32.6x, suggesting a favorable valuation for investors [19].

Core Viewpoint - The rise and fall of the ASUS Eee PC, which pioneered the netbook category, illustrates the rapid evolution of consumer electronics and the impact of market dynamics on product lifecycle [1][13][43] Group 1: Product Launch and Market Impact - ASUS became the world's second-largest OEM in 2006, primarily manufacturing computers and servers for Dell and HP [1] - The launch of the ASUS Eee PC in 2007 marked the beginning of the netbook revolution, achieving nearly 40 million units sold at its peak [1][9] - The Eee PC was priced at $299, significantly lower than traditional laptops, which contributed to its rapid adoption [4][9] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The global financial crisis in 2007 amplified the appeal of low-cost netbooks as consumers sought affordable alternatives to traditional laptops [7][9] - The entry of various manufacturers, including Acer and numerous low-cost producers in Shenzhen, further drove down prices and expanded the netbook market [6][9] - Netbooks found a niche in the education sector, particularly in developing countries, where they were seen as a cost-effective solution for providing students with computers [9][12] Group 3: Decline and Technological Evolution - Despite initial success, netbook sales began to decline sharply after 2010, with sales dropping from 39.4 million units in 2010 to just 1.4 million by 2013 [10][13] - The emergence of tablets and smartphones, which offered better performance and portability, contributed to the decline of netbooks [30][36] - The rapid advancement of technology, as described by Moore's Law, led to increased performance in traditional laptops, making them more competitive against netbooks [26][29] Group 4: Legacy and Industry Influence - The netbook phenomenon highlighted consumer demand for lightweight, affordable computing solutions, influencing the design and marketing of future products like ultrabooks and Chromebooks [42][43] - Although netbooks were short-lived, their impact on the industry was significant, prompting manufacturers to explore new market segments and innovate in product design [42][43]

Core Insights - Microsoft celebrates its 50th anniversary, marking significant growth to become the second most valuable publicly traded company globally, with a market capitalization nearing $3 trillion [1][2] Financial Performance - Microsoft has experienced a decline in stock price for four consecutive months, the first such occurrence since 2009, and faced its steepest quarterly drop in three years [4] - Azure cloud revenue growth is projected to decrease from 17% to 10% year-over-year, attributed to power and space shortages and an overemphasis on AI sales [5] - The company generates approximately $262 billion in annual revenue, with around 20% from productivity software and 10% from Windows sales [6] Strategic Investments - Microsoft has made significant acquisitions totaling $121 billion over the past eight years, including LinkedIn, Nuance Communications, and Activision Blizzard [7] - The company has invested $13.8 billion in OpenAI and increased capital expenditures by 83% year-over-year to support AI model integration in Azure [9] Market Position and Competition - Microsoft is a formidable competitor to Amazon Web Services in the cloud market, with 32 out of 35 analysts recommending the stock [10] - The company is perceived as a leader in AI, leveraging its partnership with OpenAI to enhance its product offerings [20] Challenges and Regulatory Environment - Regulatory uncertainty persists, with ongoing antitrust investigations and scrutiny from both U.S. and U.K. authorities regarding its market practices [14][17] - Microsoft faces challenges in noncore markets such as video games and consumer electronics, where its competitive position is weaker [18][19] Innovation and Future Outlook - The company is under pressure to innovate, with questions surrounding its ability to develop new technologies independently [24] - Despite successful products like Teams and GitHub Copilot, there are concerns about the effectiveness and market penetration of its AI initiatives [23][25]