16 December 2025 | 4:30PM EST Commodities Research Natural Gas Comment: Too Early for Large TTF Sell Off With Supply Miss Offsetting Mild Weather TTF has sold off 11% from late November to 26 EUR/MWh, now well into the lignite-to-gas switching range, mainly driven by a combination of headlines on a potential Ukraine peace deal and a warmer-than-average December in NW Europe. We think this sell off is overdone from a fundamental perspective, and we maintain our 29 EUR/MWh 2026 TTF price forecast, for three m ...

来源：证券时报网 作者：许孝如 随着大宗商品价格波动加剧，A股上市公司对风险管理的意识不断提升，参与期货套期保值的数量大幅 增长。 券商中国记者发现，近日佛燃能源、新奥股份、隆基股份、三一重工等多家上市公司陆续发布拟开展套 期保值的公告，并且套保额度都不小。数据显示，今年前11个月累计共有1782家上市公司发布了套期保 值相关公告，较去年全年增加279家。 此外，保险资金也在加速布局期货市场，积极运用国债期货、股指期货等工具开展套期保值，有效管理 利率风险与权益市场波动。 大额套保公告频现 越来越多的上市公司将衍生品套期保值作为公司稳健经营的重要手段。 同一天，新奥股份也通过了《关于2026 年度大宗商品套期保值额度预计的议案》，预计动用的交易保 证金和权利金上限为47亿美元，该额度在授权期限内可循环使用，交易的商品主要包括BRENT原油、 JCC原油、JKM天然气、Henry Hub天然气、TTF天然气等品种，交易类型包括掉期、期权及其产品组合 等。 12月8日，隆基股份公告称，公司生产经营涉及的主要原材料多晶硅、白银、铜、铝、锡等属于大宗原 材料，易受宏观经济形势、产业供需等因素影响呈现较大波动，拟在20 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that if Iran disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil prices could spike to $110 per barrel, with a potential increase to $90 per barrel if Iranian oil supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day [1] - The report from Mitsubishi UFJ highlights that the Philippine peso, South Korean won, and Thai baht are more susceptible to rising oil prices, with a $10 per barrel increase potentially reducing Asia's current account positions by 0.2% to 0.9% of GDP [3] - Panmure Liberum warns that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, stock markets could face a decline of 10% to 20%, with significant inflationary impacts similar to those seen in 2022 [4] Group 2: Currency and Economic Outlook - HSBC analysts express concerns over the uncertainty of U.S. policies, suggesting that the dollar may face further depreciation, with the euro expected to rise to 1.20 against the dollar by Q4 [2] - The report from Saxo Bank notes that countries heavily reliant on oil imports, such as India and Thailand, will face multiple challenges including rising energy costs and currency depreciation [2] Group 3: Investment Trends - Bank of America reports a growing interest in Japanese stocks as investors seek diversification due to high valuations in U.S. equities, despite ongoing trade uncertainties between the U.S. and Japan [2] - Citic Securities highlights the transformation of traditional cross-border payment systems, suggesting potential growth for participating banks amid a reshaping of the payment landscape [5]