16 December 2025 | 4:30PM EST Commodities Research Natural Gas Comment: Too Early for Large TTF Sell Off With Supply Miss Offsetting Mild Weather TTF has sold off 11% from late November to 26 EUR/MWh, now well into the lignite-to-gas switching range, mainly driven by a combination of headlines on a potential Ukraine peace deal and a warmer-than-average December in NW Europe. We think this sell off is overdone from a fundamental perspective, and we maintain our 29 EUR/MWh 2026 TTF price forecast, for three m ...

【导读】美股震荡，原油暴跌 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。 美股下跌 12月16日，美股市场依旧未能企稳，持续震荡下跌。 尽管11月就业数据好于预期，但并未改变投资者对美联储降息路径的整体预期。 美国劳工统计局（BLS）数据显示：11月非农就业增加6.4万人，而10月为减少10.5万人。失业率在11月升至4.6%，高于9月的4.4%，为2021年 以来最高。由于政府停摆导致无法追溯补采数据，BLS并未公布10月失业率。 Brandywine Global的副组合经理兼高级研究分析师Kevin O'Neil称："总体来看，报告的疲软程度足以证明此前的降息合理，但对未来显著更 深幅度的宽松几乎没有提供支撑。"他补充说，在劳动力市场信号相互矛盾的情况下，进入新年后，"下一份通胀数据"可能会成为市场的主要 驱动因素。 Northlight Asset Management首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli认为，这份就业报告只会"加剧美联储内部的争论"，因为美联储依赖数据做决策，而当 前数据本身受扰动影响较大。 | 了 筛选 | | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = □' | | --- ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (11.24-11.28) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 回顾与要闻 近期多位美联储官员公开支持降息，市场对12月降息25个基点的预期升至约87%。就业走弱、消费者信心下降和通胀缺乏反弹是主要驱动。 同时，市场认为哈塞特若出任主席，将推行特朗普期待的激进降息。尽管鸽派力量增强，美联储内部仍有官员担心通胀风险。理事沃勒主 张12月降息，理由是劳动力市场疲软。他指出12月会议后将发布10月、11月非农和11月CPI，可能影响1月决策。他认为关税对通胀的影响有 限且一次性。鸽派理事米兰则呼吁多次50个基点降息，认为政策过于紧缩，正推高失业、抑制经济。他认为当前通胀"虚高"，源于住房 市场失衡和政策滞后，并主张更保守的资产负债表管理。旧金山联储主席戴利也支持12月降息，认为 ...

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Group 1 - The current trading price of paper gold is around 948.04 yuan per gram, with a slight increase of 0.97% [1] - The highest price reached today is 948.05 yuan per gram, while the lowest was 938.71 yuan per gram [1] - The short-term outlook for paper gold is bullish [1] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump has abandoned the previously set deadline for a peace agreement regarding Ukraine, stating that the deadline is when the issue is resolved [2] - Trump mentioned that U.S. negotiators have made progress in discussions with Russia and Ukraine, with Moscow agreeing to make certain concessions [2] - Middle East envoy Greenblatt will meet with Russian President Putin, with Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner also involved in the negotiations [2] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for paper gold are identified between 935 yuan per gram and 980 yuan per gram [3] - Important support levels are noted to be between 920 yuan per gram and 935 yuan per gram [3]

Trump said on Monday. The U.S. and Kyiv have made "big progress†toward a peace proposal to put to Russia, President Donald ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, with spot gold trading around $4020 per ounce and reaching a record high of $4059.07 per ounce due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties, as well as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - The article highlights the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, with traders betting on an over 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting [1] - The analysis also covers the technical aspects of gold and oil prices, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold and a mixed outlook for oil, with specific support and resistance levels provided for trading strategies [3][5] Gold Market Analysis - Spot gold prices have recently surpassed the $4000 mark, marking a significant milestone in the market [1] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold remains in a strong bullish trend, with key support levels identified between $4000 and $3990, and resistance levels between $4048 and $4058 [3] Oil Market Analysis - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $62 per barrel, with recent price increases driven by expectations of continued sanctions on Russia and strong U.S. oil consumption [4] - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a significant increase in crude oil inventories, which contrasts with declines in gasoline and distillate inventories, indicating a supply-demand mismatch in the energy market [4] - Technical analysis suggests a mixed outlook for oil prices, with short-term support levels identified between $61.0 and $60.0, and resistance levels between $63.5 and $64.5 [5]

Group 1 - Senior U.S. military officer Dan Kane is scheduled to meet with European military leaders in Washington on the evening of the 19th to discuss the Ukraine issue [1] - The discussions will focus on the "best options for reaching a peace agreement for Ukraine" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the diplomatic meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump, highlighting the contrasting atmospheres compared to previous encounters, with a focus on the need for a more cooperative approach to the Ukraine issue [1][4][9] - Zelensky's attire and demeanor during the meeting were notably more formal and conciliatory, aiming to avoid previous tensions and to foster a positive atmosphere [4][5] - The meeting was attended by European leaders, indicating a multilateral approach to the discussions, although underlying tensions regarding the conditions for peace remained evident [3][6][8] Group 2 - Trump's previous attempts to pressure Zelensky into unfavorable agreements were contrasted with his current more diplomatic stance, reflecting a shift in strategy amid domestic and international criticism [2][7] - Despite the seemingly positive interactions, there was a clear lack of trust among the parties involved, complicating the prospects for meaningful negotiations [9] - The European leaders present at the meeting expressed their concerns about the need for a ceasefire before any territorial concessions, highlighting the ongoing divisions in the approach to the conflict [8][9]

Group 1 - Russian President Putin and US President Trump are set to hold talks, prompting traders to invest in assets that may benefit from a potential peace agreement in Ukraine [1] - Ukrainian dollar bonds have shown the best performance among emerging and frontier markets tracked by Bloomberg, while the Polish zloty appreciated by 0.6% against the dollar [1] - A Ukrainian stock index listed in Warsaw recorded its largest gain since May, and shares of Russian companies like Rusal International in Hong Kong surged with above-average trading volume [1] Group 2 - Trump has adopted a tougher stance towards Russia, threatening heavy economic penalties if Putin does not reach a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine by August 8 [2] - Many related assets are still trading well below their levels from February, when optimism about a peace agreement and potential easing of sanctions boosted prices [2] - The Moscow Exchange rose by 5%, and the ruble strengthened by 0.5%, making it one of the best-performing currencies globally [2]