Core Viewpoint - Tesla, a leading EV maker, is set to report Q4 earnings, with shares experiencing significant volatility since 2020, yet have quadrupled since late 2023, nearing all-time highs as earnings approach [1] Earnings Expectations - Q4 earnings report is scheduled for January 28 after market close, with EPS estimates at $0.45, reflecting a 40% year-over-year decline, and revenue expected to be approximately $24.75 billion [2] - The options market anticipates a post-market move of +/- $29.56 or 6.58%, while Tesla has historically shown an average move of 9.64% over the past eight quarters [2] EPS Surprise History - Tesla has missed Zacks Consensus Analyst Estimates by an average of 11.10% over the past four quarters, indicating a trend of underperformance [3] Legacy EV Business Insights - Tesla's legacy EV business constitutes about three-quarters of its revenue, but investors may not focus heavily on this due to three factors: bad news is already priced in, expected interest rate declines, and diversification beyond the legacy EV business [5][6] Key Earnings Drivers - Analysts predict a slowdown in Q4 EPS, with Tesla shifting focus from EVs to energy, robotaxis, and robots, which will be closely monitored by investors [8] - Tesla's energy segment is experiencing robust growth at 84% year-over-year, with potential for triple-digit growth in the coming years [10] - The Tesla robotaxi network is being tested in San Francisco and Austin, with third-party data suggesting Tesla's full-self-driving service is twice as safe as the average human driver, which could lead to regulatory approval and new revenue streams [11] - The anticipated release of the "Optimus" humanoid robot and the high-volume production of the long-delayed "Semi" truck later this year are also significant developments [12] Long-term Outlook - While facing headwinds in the legacy EV business, Tesla's long-term value will hinge on the success of its energy, self-driving, and humanoid robot initiatives, as investors assess the potential of a diversified tech ecosystem to mitigate current challenges [13]

以下文章来源于BigBite思维随笔 ，作者BigBite BigBite思维随笔 . Big Bite Small Talk, 杂谈随笔，聊科技，AI，成长，理财，经验杂谈。Stay Hungry 点击下方 卡片 ，关注" 自动驾驶之心 "公众号 戳我-> 领取 自动驾驶近30个 方向 学习 路线 作者 | BigBite 编辑 | 自动驾驶之心 本文只做学术分享，如有侵权，联系删文 >>自动驾驶前沿信息获取 → 自动驾驶之心知识星球 上周柱哥转载知乎文章的那篇《 有消息称FSD不是端到端One Model 》，引起了大家很广泛的讨论。批评和支持的声音都很多，当时分享这篇文章主要是提供一个 角度看端到端： 一个VA的端到端不是万能的，One Model可以承担95%的主要功能（甚至更高），但也会增加一些小模型辅助做优化。 今天给大家分享一篇业内工程师BigBite视角下的FSD解析， 观点主要如下： 以下是原文： green发现的FSD模型参数文件信息 这里可以发现B核神经网络参数远多于A核，同时A，B共用的只有61个参数文件，也就是说早年AI Day上分享的A，B核互成冗余的设计实际上在Tesla V12 ...

2026年1月24日BigBite思维随笔发文《 为什么说Tesla FSD就是一个端到端大模型 》，主要针对《 刘延说特斯拉FSD是近200个小场景模型的组合 》的回 应 理想自动驾驶负责人郎咸朋在BigBite思维随笔这篇文章评论区评论"赞"。 以下为原内容： green发现的FSD模型参数文件信息 这里可以发现B核神经网络参数远多于A核，同时A，B共用的只有61个参数文件，也就是 说早年Al Day上分享的A，B核互成冗余的设计实际上在Tesla V12端到端化之后神经网络 规模急速膨胀之后已经很难实现完全的A，B核冗余（其实传说中V11阶段就很难实现完全 的冗余备份了）。 "Speaking to the location specific models, we still have a generalized approach, and you can see that from ... the deployment of FSD supervised in China where, with this very minimal data that's China specific, the mod ...

Core Insights - Legacy automakers are strategically hesitant to license Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, as they prioritize developing their own automated driving technologies [1][5] Group 1: Automaker Strategies - Rivian is focusing on vertical integration by designing a proprietary chip for its autonomous driving system and is considering a robotaxi business [2] - Ford plans to develop its own eyes-off driving software by 2028, claiming that in-house development can reduce costs by 30% and enhance control over software integration [3][4] - Automakers are increasingly seeking in-house solutions to maintain brand identity and competitive advantage, rather than relying on external technology providers [6][7] Group 2: Technology Integration Challenges - The integration of software, sensors, and actuators is complex and costly when relying on multiple suppliers, making in-house development more appealing [8] - Experts suggest that automakers must define the level of autonomy desired by their customer base, which influences their technology choices [6][7] Group 3: Industry Tools and Accessibility - Nvidia's introduction of Alpamayo provides automakers with AI models and simulation tools to develop self-driving technology, making Tesla's FSD license less attractive [9][10] - Alpamayo is not a plug-and-play solution but a toolset that supports automakers in enhancing their own autonomous systems [11] - The availability of tools like Alpamayo is said to democratize autonomous vehicle development by lowering costs and training times [12]

What if the safest driver on the road isn’t a human, but Tesla’s AI?LikeFolio's @AndySwan says Tesla FSD is already far safer than human drivers, in some cases multiple times safer!The problem? Tesla barely markets it. If people understood that pressing a button and letting AI drive is safer than driving yourself, it could be a game-changer by 2026–2027. $TSLA ...

RT Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV)Waymos bricked across SF in power outage:1. Traffic lights out2. Connectivity disrupted → stalled at intersections, service pausedTesla FSD/Robotaxis ran smoothly: vision-only, real-world trained AI, no external dependencyFull-stack vertical integration → resilience → buzz → user growth → long-term winResilience = owning your fallbacks (no single-point failures) ...

Gold and Silver Market - Gold has surpassed $4,400 per ounce for the first time, currently priced at $4,412, marking a 1.6% increase and on track for its best annual performance in over 40 years [2][3] - Silver prices have also surged, with spot prices rising 3.3% to a record $69.44, indicating both metals are set for their strongest yearly performance since 1979 [3] - Traders are anticipating two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, influenced by recent economic data and advocacy for looser monetary policy from President Trump [3] Geopolitical Factors - Rising geopolitical tensions have enhanced the safe-haven appeal of gold and silver, particularly due to the U.S. tightening its oil blockade on Venezuela and Ukraine's recent attack on a Russian oil tanker [4] Gold-Backed ETFs - Gold-backed ETFs have experienced inflows for five consecutive weeks, with total holdings increasing every month this year except May, according to Bloomberg and World Gold Council data [5]

兄弟 你敢信？ Waymo已經讓 乘客“躺赢”了 380万小时 的私人时间 这不是梦 是2025年 真实数据！ 但Elon昨晚 在X上直接怼 Waymo沒機會 和我們對抗 Tesla一出场 就能秒杀！ 你猜谁會赢？ Waymo每周 45万個订单 2500辆车 日夜狂奔 安全数据碾压 人类91% 重伤事故 但马斯克的 杀手锏是 端到端AI 纯摄像头 零硬件依赖 数据狂飙 65亿英里 Waymo 就好像 全副武装 的特种兵 稳但是贵 Tesla呢？ 就像病毒大军 成本腰斩到 每英里1刀 全球随便开 这場 Robotaxi戰爭 剛剛打響 Waymo 在秀肌肉 马斯克 在憋大招 你站哪边？ 评论區告诉我！. ...

FSD (Full Self-Driving) Performance - Tesla FSD 14.2 provides a driving experience comparable to a professional chauffeur service [1] - The system navigates traffic with authority and prioritizes passenger comfort [1] - FSD 14.2 executes turns with precision and confidence [1] - Testers describe the driving experience as "sentient" after a short period [1] User Experience - The system offers a VIP luxury experience [1] - The driving experience is smooth and refined [1]

Core Insights - Ross Gerber, co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki, commented on the advancements of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and the competitive position of Waymo in the Robotaxi and self-driving sectors [1] Tesla Developments - Gerber expressed that Tesla's FSD v14.2 shows significant improvement, stating it "drives much better than before," but still requires supervision, classifying it as a level 2 system [2] - Achieving level 3 autonomy would necessitate Tesla taking liability for accidents caused by its system, which Gerber noted would signify a major advancement [3] - Tesla has recently obtained self-certification to deploy autonomous vehicles in Nevada, facilitating its Robotaxi commercial operations [6] Waymo's Position - Gerber labeled Waymo as the leader in the Robotaxi sector, highlighting its level 4 autonomy and rapid scaling of operations [4] - Waymo's recent expansion allows it to operate on highways across multiple cities without an onboard safety driver, contrasting with Tesla's current operations [5]