Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Core Viewpoint - The international oil market is experiencing a mild upward trend, supported by the extension of the tariff suspension period between China and the U.S., which alleviates concerns over trade tensions affecting the year-end consumption season [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Brent crude futures settled at $66.65 per barrel, while WTI closed at $63.89 per barrel, with narrowed intraday volatility [1] - The extension of the tariff suspension aims to provide more time for bilateral negotiations and prevent supply chain disruptions during the holiday shopping season [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Attention is shifting to the upcoming U.S.-Russia high-level talks in Alaska, focusing on de-escalating the Russia-Ukraine conflict and discussing potential easing of secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers [4] - A substantial peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could significantly reduce the risk of oil supply disruptions, potentially providing further upward momentum for oil prices [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is viewed as a critical variable; a signal of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could weaken the dollar, providing price support for dollar-denominated oil [5] - Conversely, if inflation remains sticky and exceeds expectations, concerns over tightening liquidity may suppress risk asset performance [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - WTI crude oil has formed a short-term support level around $63, with short-term moving averages showing signs of stabilization and bullish momentum [6] - Key resistance is identified at $64.80 per barrel; a breakthrough could challenge the $66 per barrel mark, while $63 serves as a critical support level [6] Group 5: Market Sentiment - The market is currently benefiting from the dual expectations of eased trade tensions and reduced geopolitical conflicts, though the actual impact will depend on the substantive progress of negotiations and Federal Reserve policy direction [8] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the interplay between political and economic signals, along with key technical levels for risk management [8]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and financial instruments [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, publications, and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Market Overview - WTI crude oil initially rose by approximately 1%, reaching $65.77, but later declined from around $75 following geopolitical tensions [1] - WTI experienced a 7% increase for the month but a 9% decrease for the quarter, marking the fourth negative price decline in the last five quarters [2] - Natural gas prices decreased by 16% for the quarter, while Arub gasoline prices fell by 9% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Oil supply is projected to grow four times faster than global oil demand this year [4] - Strong supply growth is expected from OPEC+ countries reversing post-pandemic production cuts, as well as from countries like Brazil, Guana, Norway, and Kazakhstan bringing offshore projects online [4] - US shale supply remains robust, with recent readings showing all-time highs [4] - Global oil demand is growing by approximately 600 thousand barrels per day (KBD) this year [6] Price Forecast and Influencing Factors - Goldman Sachs anticipates a further $10 downside for crude oil prices over the next 12 months due to strong supply [5] - A weaker dollar is expected to boost global oil demand by 300-400 KBD [10] - Recession risk in the US is estimated to be around 30% over the next 12 months, potentially impacting oil demand [7] Commodity Divergence - The analysis suggests the most upside potential for gold and US copper prices, while anticipating downside for oil [11] - China's commodity demand is becoming increasingly divergent, with strong power and copper demand growth but a peak in oil demand and weak LNG gas imports [12]

Core Viewpoint - Allete's shares have entered oversold territory with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 29.7, indicating potential buying opportunities as heavy selling may be exhausting [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance - Allete shares traded as low as $63.555, with a current trading price of $63.65, reflecting a decrease of approximately 0.3% on the day [1][3] - The 52-week range for Allete shares is between $61.51 (low) and $66.40 (high) [3] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The average RSI for the energy stocks universe is 51.1, while WTI Crude Oil has an RSI of 47.5, and Henry Hub Natural Gas is at 41.4 [2] - The 3-2-1 Crack Spread RSI is currently at 45.6, indicating a relatively stronger position compared to Allete's RSI [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a selective and defensive bias, preferring gas over oil in the North American Energy sector [5][7]. Core Insights - WTI oil prices have increased approximately 20% in June due to geopolitical risks and a tight crude market, but prices are expected to trend lower in the second half of 2025 unless there are significant supply disruptions [4][28]. - The report emphasizes a preference for US natural gas over oil, with EQT identified as a top pick in the Exploration & Production (E&P) sector [7][9]. - Refining margins have improved significantly, with a 30% quarter-over-quarter increase, leading to 2Q EBITDA estimates that are about 10% above consensus [7][10]. Summary by Sector US Majors - The US Majors provide exposure to higher oil prices while maintaining resilience if prices decline, supported by strong balance sheets and integrated operations [9]. - Estimated free cash flow (FCF) yields for XOM and CVX are projected at 7% and 8% respectively at a WTI price of $65 [9]. US Exploration & Production (E&P) - The report retains a defensive stance, favoring US gas over oil, with a median FCF yield forecast of 9% for gas at $4.40 Henry Hub [9]. - Positive rate of change is a focus for oil producers, with OW-rated DVN and PR highlighted [9]. Canadian Producers - Large-cap Canadian oil sands operators are expected to perform in line with US peers, with a forecasted median shareholder return yield of 9% at $65 WTI [9]. Energy Services & Equipment (ESE) - Preference is given to international and offshore upstream exposure, gas over oil, and non-upstream exposure, with BKR and SLB identified as key stocks [9]. Refining & Marketing - Refining margins are expected to benefit from summer demand, with key stock picks including VLO and DINO [10]. Midstream Energy Infrastructure - Midstream remains misvalued, with a recommendation to wait for a better entry point before deploying new capital [13]. High Yield Energy (Credit) - The sector is currently underperforming, with a recommendation to focus on gas-levered and balanced commodity exposure over oil-levered credits [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) position on cash, equities, credit, and bonds, while being "Underweight" (UW) on commodities for the next three months [3][21]. Core Insights - Emerging Market (EM) equities have shown resilience despite tariff uncertainties, with a projected earnings growth of 10% to 11% for CY 2025/26, which is 2-3 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [2][6]. - The S&P 500 had its best May performance since 1990, outperforming EM equities year-to-date, although EM equities have generally outperformed US equities in the same period [2][7]. - A weaker US Dollar is expected to support EM outperformance, as EM equities have historically benefited from a weaker Dollar [2][14]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report highlights the importance of upcoming economic data and decisions from G4 central banks, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB and stable unemployment rates in the US [1][2]. Market Performance - The S&P 500's performance in May 2025 was notably strong, while EM equities have shown positive macro surprises, contrasting with muted US macro surprises [2][9]. Asset Allocation - The report suggests a diversified approach, advocating for international diversification in equities and bonds, and highlights the potential benefits of EM equity and local rates [3][6][21]. Correlation Analysis - The correlation between MSCI EM and the US Dollar has turned more positive, indicating a decoupling of EM rates from US rates, which may provide investment opportunities [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, publications, and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, publications, and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].