Core Viewpoint - Microsoft is experiencing a significant stock decline despite strong underlying business performance, raising questions about whether this presents a buying opportunity for investors [1][2]. Financial Performance - Microsoft's fiscal second-quarter revenue increased by 17% year over year, or 15% on a constant-currency basis, with operating income rising 21% year over year to $38.3 billion [4]. - The productivity and business processes segment revenue grew 16% year over year to $34.1 billion, while the intelligent cloud segment saw a 29% year-over-year revenue increase to $32.9 billion, with Azure and other cloud services revenue climbing 39% [5][6]. - The "more personal computing" segment experienced a slight revenue decline of 3% year over year, contributing $14.3 billion during the period [7]. Growth Potential - Microsoft reported a commercial remaining performance obligation (RPO) of $625 billion, reflecting a 110% year-over-year increase, indicating strong future growth potential, particularly in cloud computing [8]. - The company anticipates that approximately 25% of this backlog, around $156 billion, will be recognized as revenue in the next 12 months, with 45% of the RPO balance linked to OpenAI [9]. Investment Considerations - The current price-to-earnings ratio of about 25 suggests that shares are not overvalued, but the significant capital expenditures of $37.5 billion, up 66% year over year, indicate heavy investment in AI infrastructure [10][11]. - Given the ongoing investment cycle, shares may be more suitable as a hold rather than a buy, although long-term investors in AI may find this a good entry point [12].

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Core Insights - Microsoft (MSFT) shares dropped approximately 14% following the release of its Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings, despite beating revenue and earnings estimates with non-GAAP EPS of $4.14 and revenue of $81.3 billion, reflecting a 17% year-over-year growth [1][7] Financial Performance - The cloud infrastructure segment remains a key growth driver, with Azure and other cloud services growing 39% in constant currency, although this is a slight deceleration from the previous quarter's 40% growth [3] - Microsoft Cloud revenues surpassed $50 billion for the first time, reaching $51.5 billion with a 26% year-over-year growth, but gross margins compressed to just over 68%, the narrowest level in three years due to heavy AI infrastructure investments [3][7] - Commercial bookings surged to 230%, up from 112% in the previous quarter, with remaining performance obligations reaching $625 billion, indicating strong enterprise demand for Microsoft's offerings [4][7] Segment Performance - The Productivity and Business Processes segment generated $34.1 billion in revenues, reflecting a 16% growth, driven by the adoption of Microsoft 365 services [4] - The More Personal Computing division faced challenges, with revenues declining approximately 3% to $14.25 billion, and gaming revenues falling 9.5% due to an unspecified impairment charge [5] Future Guidance - For fiscal Q3, Microsoft projects revenues between $80.65 billion and $81.75 billion, implying growth of approximately 15% to 17%, with Azure revenue growth expected at 37% to 38% in constant currency [6][7] - Operating margins are anticipated to decline slightly year-over-year, but management raised full fiscal year 2026 operating margin expectations [7] AI Integration and Competitive Landscape - Microsoft is expanding AI capabilities across its product portfolio, with recent enhancements in Excel and Outlook, although monetization of these features is still in early stages [9] - Microsoft trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 8.67, a premium compared to the industry average of 7.03, reflecting the market's recognition of its cloud position [10] - Over the past six months, Microsoft shares have lost 21.1%, underperforming competitors like Alphabet and Amazon, which have seen significant returns [13] Investment Considerations - The investment case for Microsoft includes strong competitive positioning in enterprise cloud, a massive backlog of contracted future revenues, and leadership in generative AI applications [17] - However, elevated capital expenditure requirements, compressed margins, and capacity constraints create uncertainty regarding near-term financial performance [17]

50 年前的本周，一封名为《致电脑爱好者的一封公开信》在刚兴起的计算机爱好者圈子中流传开来。这封由 20 岁的比尔・盖茨撰写的信件，因非常直白 地炮轰"软件盗版"问题，在当时掀起轩然大波，其彼时抱怨道："你们这样做就是在偷窃。" 如今恰逢发布 50 周年，这封至今保存在《纽约时报》档案中的内容再次展现在大众视野上，随即也冲上了 HN 热榜，引发了新一轮讨论。 时代背景，Altair 8800 开启个人电脑革命 时间拉回 1975 年，搭载了 Intel 8080 CPU 和 S-100 总线卡的 Altair 8800 横空出世。 这款没有键盘、没有显示器，甚至默认仅为简陋套件的机器，却意外开启了桌面个人电脑革命，它催生了早期 PC 社区与生态的形成。 正是这款机器，让 20 岁的比尔・盖茨与 22 岁的保罗・艾伦找到了合作契机。两人便主动联系 Altair 开发商 MITS，声称已经为这台微型计算机完成了一 套 BASIC 解释器。 时任 MITS 公司负责人 Ed Roberts 很快同意了这次合作，邀请其二人为 Altair 编写软件。随后，艾伦前往 MITS 公司，全职参与与 MITS 的对接与支持； ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 中金发表报告指，微软公布2026财年第二季业绩，总营收按年增17%至813亿美元，市场预期增15%， 该行预期增16%；营业利润按年增21%至383亿美元，市场预期366亿美元，该行预期369亿美元；GAAP 口径净利润受到投资Open AI收益的推动按年大幅增长60%至385亿美元，市场预期288亿美元，该行预 期275亿美元；去除Open AI投资影响的Non-GAAP口径对应摊薄后每股盈利按年增24%至4.14美元，市 场预期3.91美元，该行预期4.09美元。由于本季度M365、Windows以及搜索在内的AI产品需求继续走 强，最终的业绩好于该行和市场的预期。该行维持对其"跑赢行业"评级及目标价586美元。 ...

中金发表报告指，微软公布2026财年第二季业绩，总营收按年增17%至813亿美元，市场预期增15%， 该行预期增16%；营业利润按年增21%至383亿美元，市场预期366亿美元，该行预期369亿美元；GAAP 口径净利润受到投资Open AI收益的推动按年大幅增长60%至385亿美元，市场预期288亿美元，该行预 期275亿美元；去除Open AI投资影响的Non-GAAP口径对应摊薄后每股盈利按年增24%至4.14美元，市 场预期3.91美元，该行预期4.09美元。由于本季度M365、Windows以及搜索在内的AI产品需求继续走 强，最终的业绩好于该行和市场的预期。该行维持对其"跑赢行业"评级及目标价586美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The software industry is experiencing significant stock declines due to fears that AI will disrupt traditional software, although some industry leaders believe this concern is exaggerated [1][2][3]. Group 1: Software Industry Overview - Software stocks have dropped sharply, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF down 21% year-to-date, primarily in the last week [2]. - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang argues that AI will enhance rather than replace existing software, suggesting that the software industry is not in decline [3]. Group 2: Company Analysis Microsoft - Microsoft has a strong presence in enterprise software and its Azure cloud infrastructure is growing rapidly, with a 39% revenue increase in the latest quarter [5]. - Despite its financial strength, Microsoft stock has fallen 25% from its peak in the last three months due to concerns over rising capital expenditures for AI initiatives [6][8]. - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings discount compared to the S&P 500, presenting a potential buying opportunity [8]. Shopify - Shopify has seen a 38% decline from its peak at the end of October, but it remains a leader in e-commerce software [9]. - The company reported a 32% revenue increase to $2.8 billion in its most recent quarter, indicating strong growth potential [12]. - Shopify is integrating AI into its platform, which may help it maintain its competitive edge [10]. Figma - Figma's stock has dropped about 85% from its peak, despite being a leader in design software and having a history of GAAP profitability [13][15]. - The company is actively incorporating AI into its product offerings, which may enhance its market position [15]. - Figma's skills are in high demand, indicating a competitive advantage in the job market [15].

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer shared his opinion on. Cramer called the company the “least Magnificent of the Seven,” as he commented: And then there’s Microsoft. Here’s the least Magnificent of the Seven. When I go over that convoluted conference call that they just did, I can’t tell whether they understood their stock would get obliterated. Maybe they thought it was going to go up. Did they know that they lost the AI race? Were they aware that they weren’t making the ...

Microsoft's security boss, Charlie Bell, is moving to a new role as an individual contributor, and the company hired Google executive Hayete Gallot to replace him, according to an internal memo from CEO Satya Nadella. Gallot is a former Microsoft executive who joined Google in 2024 as president of customer experience for Google Cloud.Bell, considered a key building of Amazon Web Services, joined Microsoft in 2021 to run a newly formed organization focused on cybersecurity. There was recent speculation insi ...

Jim Cramer, the host of Mad Money, on Monday said that after a year of poor performance, the Magnificent Seven no longer live up to their reputation as the market’s top-performing stocks. A lot of people don’t know this, but I used to write obituaries for a living. It’s a sad job as you can imagine. You want to be sure you get it right, and if you can, you need a picture. Always the picture. Well, here’s the picture. It’s of the Magnificent Seven, and I’m pronouncing it dead tonight. Why? Because the groupi ...