在港股新消费板块经历从"流量狂欢"到"价值回归"的洗牌后，市场对新消费标准的考核逻辑已完成根本 性转变——从单纯追逐短期GMV增速，转向审视企业的长期运营能力、品牌韧性与科研壁垒。 作为港股美妆新消费标的代表，上美股份(02145)精准踩中了消费趋势的演进节奏：今年以来，该公司 走出一波漂亮的"翻倍"行情，年初至今的股价累计涨幅高达150%，并在年内股价突破104港元，创下上 市以来新高。 在股价不断突破的背后，更值得关注的是，上美股份正通过"多品牌矩阵、全渠道协同、研发筑优势"的 多维布局，在行业波动期实现了业绩与估值的双重突围，也为港股新消费赛道提供了一个稀缺的成长标 杆。 多品牌矩阵成型，构建全新增长体系 纵观新消费板块的早期红利，源于流量平台崛起带来的"大众市场普惠"，但随着消费分级与细分化趋势 加剧，"单品牌通吃"的时代逐渐落幕。根据2025年上半年的业绩报告，行业龙头之间已出现显著分化， 部分前期高增长的明星企业面临着严峻挑战，其背后的"单核隐忧"是重要原因。 基于对市场和行业前瞻性的预判，上美股份率先摒弃了"押注单一爆品/品牌"的旧有模式，以多品牌矩 阵精准对接不同的消费需求，完成了从"流量支撑 ...

在港股新消费板块经历从"流量狂欢"到"价值回归"的洗牌后，市场对新消费标准的考核逻辑已完成根本 性转变——从单纯追逐短期GMV增速，转向审视企业的长期运营能力、品牌韧性与科研壁垒。 作为港股美妆新消费标的代表，上美股份(02145)精准踩中了消费趋势的演进节奏：今年以来，该公司 走出一波漂亮的"翻倍"行情，年初至今的股价累计涨幅高达150%，并在年内股价突破104港元，创下上 市以来新高。 在股价不断突破的背后，更值得关注的是，上美股份正通过"多品牌矩阵、全渠道协同、研发筑优势"的 多维布局，在行业波动期实现了业绩与估值的双重突围，也为港股新消费赛道提供了一个稀缺的成长标 杆。 多品牌矩阵成型，构建全新增长体系 纵观新消费板块的早期红利，源于流量平台崛起带来的"大众市场普惠"，但随着消费分级与细分化趋势 加剧，"单品牌通吃"的时代逐渐落幕。根据2025年上半年的业绩报告，行业龙头之间已出现显著分化， 部分前期高增长的明星企业面临着严峻挑战，其背后的"单核隐忧"是重要原因。 基于对市场和行业前瞻性的预判，上美股份率先摒弃了"押注单一爆品/品牌"的旧有模式，以多品牌矩 阵精准对接不同的消费需求，完成了从"流量支撑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 30/23x for those years, and raises the target price by 8% to HKD 106, indicating a potential upside of 17% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue reached RMB 4.11 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, exceeding the upper limit of the previous earnings forecast [1] - The net profit for 1H25 was RMB 560 million, up 34.7% year-on-year, also above the previous forecast range [1] - The attributable net profit was RMB 520 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, aligning with the expectations of the report [1] Group 2: Brand and Product Performance - The Han Shu brand generated RMB 3.34 billion in revenue, a 14% year-on-year increase, with successful expansion across multiple product lines [2] - The Yi Ye brand saw a significant revenue increase of 146% year-on-year, reaching RMB 400 million, with strong sales of its star product [2] - The Hongse Xiaoxiang brand generated RMB 160 million, indicating initial success in brand transformation [2] Group 3: Channel and Operational Efficiency - The company's gross margin improved by 1.7 percentage points to 75.5% in 1H25, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 56.9% [3] - The online sales revenue was RMB 3.81 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, accounting for 93% of total revenue, with significant growth driven by platforms like Tmall and JD [2] - The management and R&D expense ratios increased slightly, but overall profitability improved, with the attributable net profit margin rising by 1.3 percentage points to 12.8% [3] Group 4: Future Growth Strategy - The company continues to expand its brand matrix, having launched new brands in May and August, with positive initial results [4] - Plans for the second half of 2025 include launching new brands targeting specific markets, such as maternal and infant products and professional cosmetics [4] - The long-term strategy focuses on developing six major brands across three key sectors over the next three years, aiming for significant growth in the cosmetics industry [4]

Group 1 - The performance growth is primarily attributed to the multi-channel and multi-category layout of the Han Shu brand and the significant revenue increase from Newpage [1] - The company continues to implement a "single focus, multiple brands, globalization" strategy, establishing a multi-brand matrix consisting of "Han Shu + Newpage + Nth Curve Brands" [1] - The main brand Han Shu achieved a GMV of 3.63 billion yuan on Douyin, maintaining the top position in the beauty sales ranking on the platform, with product breakthroughs in various categories such as Hong Man Yao, Bai Man Yao, X Peptide series, and secondary throwaway products [1] Group 2 - The professional skincare brand An Min You has entered the sensitive skin market with the "Qinghao Oil AN+" ingredient, enhancing the professional skincare portfolio [1] - The company's layout in the hair care sector includes brands like Ji Fang and Han Shu Hair Care, precisely targeting the "functional hair care" and "scalp anti-aging" niche markets [1] Group 3 - The company expects its net profit for the first half of 2025 to be between 540 million yuan and 560 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [3] - The expected revenue for the company is between 4.09 billion yuan and 4.11 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. (02145) has released a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating strong revenue and net profit growth driven by its main brand Han Shu and the second growth curve brand New Page [1][2][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue to be between RMB 4.09 billion and RMB 4.11 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - The net profit is projected to reach between RMB 540 million and RMB 560 million, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] Group 2: Brand Strategy - The company is advancing a "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy, creating a multi-brand matrix that includes the main brand Han Shu and the second curve brand New Page, achieving comprehensive layout across multiple categories and price ranges [2][12] - Han Shu has achieved a breakthrough in all-channel growth, with GMV on Douyin exceeding RMB 3.63 billion in the first half of 2025, maintaining its position as the top beauty brand on the platform [4][12] Group 3: Product Innovation - The Han Shu brand has successfully launched popular products, such as the Hong Man Yao series, which sold over 14 million sets, and the Bai Man Yao series, which continues to grow in the whitening market [4][9] - New Page has shown strong growth since its launch in 2022, with a strategic upgrade targeting "effective skincare for all ages" and achieving a sales increase of 106% during the 618 shopping festival [6][12] Group 4: Competitive Advantage - The An Min You brand targets the sensitive skin segment, utilizing innovative ingredients like Qinghao Oil AN+ to provide gentle solutions, enhancing the company's competitive edge in professional skincare [9][12] - The company has established a complete innovation matrix in the hair care sector, focusing on functional hair care and scalp anti-aging products, driven by consumer demand [9][12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a strategic goal of RMB 30 billion by 2030, leveraging clear strategic planning and ongoing research investment to transition from following international brands to leading industry development [19]