Summary of J.P. Morgan's Long-Term NAND Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **NAND Flash Memory** sector within the **semiconductors** industry, highlighting its evolution, current innovations, and future outlook [3][10][11]. Key Insights Long-Term Market Dynamics - The **Total Addressable Market (TAM)** for NAND is expected to grow at a **CAGR of 34%** over the next three years, driven by a **20% CAGR in bit demand** and a **low-teens percentage increase in ASP** [3][18]. - Historical trends show that NAND bit demand growth has decelerated due to maturing end markets like smartphones and PCs, but the introduction of **eSSD** has shifted growth dynamics [3][14][17]. Demand Drivers - **eSSD** demand is projected to grow significantly, with a **CAGR of 49%** from 2025 to 2028, driven by AI applications and data center needs [3][17]. - As of 2024, **SSDs account for 54%** of NAND bit demand, while smartphones represent approximately **30%** [17][90]. Pricing and Revenue Trends - NAND revenue per Kwfpm is forecasted to increase from **US$55k in 2025** to **US$102k by 2027** [3]. - The ASP for NAND has historically been under pressure but is expected to rise due to strategic production cuts and strong demand from AI-driven data centers [3][40]. Comparison with DRAM - NAND is viewed as less attractive compared to DRAM due to market fragmentation and lower exposure to AI applications. However, the **AI NAND TAM** is expected to reach **US$70 billion** by 2028, compared to **US$220 billion** for AI DRAM [3][37]. - The capital intensity for NAND is projected to average **16%** from 2025 to 2027, compared to **26%** for DRAM, indicating stricter capex discipline among NAND suppliers [3][37]. Technology and Capacity Trends - The transition to **3D NAND technology** has allowed for increased storage capacity without a proportional rise in cost, supporting ASPs [39]. - The industry is experiencing a **capacity shrink** due to technology migration, which may impact future production capabilities [4][39]. Additional Insights - The NAND industry has not seen the same level of consolidation as DRAM due to its diverse applications and technological differentiation, allowing smaller players to thrive [87][88]. - The report emphasizes the importance of **AI** in shaping future demand, with AI memory expected to account for nearly half of the global memory TAM by 2027, growing at an **80% CAGR** during 2024-2027 [59][60]. Conclusion - The NAND Flash Memory market is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements, particularly in eSSD applications and AI integration. The competitive landscape remains dynamic, with opportunities for both established and emerging players in the sector.

德明利(001309.SZ)接受机构调研回答"如何看待存储价格后续走势？"的问题时表示，AI驱动下的数据 存储需求增长仍在持续影响存储价格，头部云服务商向存储原厂抛出巨额采购订单，加剧原厂将有限的 产能向服务器存储倾斜，非服务器市场面临供应紧缺。CFM闪存市场预计2026年一季度将延续上行趋 势，MobileeMMC/UFS涨幅将达25%-30%，LPDDR4X/5X涨幅或达30%-35%；PC端DDR5/LPDDR5X涨 幅将达30%-35%，cSSD上涨25%-30%。公司也将紧密跟踪行业价格走势，积极调整经营策略。 ...

转自：智通财经 【江波龙：据市场预测 2026一季度LPDDR4X/5X涨幅或达30%~35%】智通财经12月16日电，江波龙 (301308.SZ)发布投资者关系活动记录表，结合第三方机构信息来看，受过往周期影响，主要原厂维持 审慎的产能扩张策略，若后续资本开支回升，受制于产能建设周期的滞后性，对2026年位元产出的增量 贡献也将较为有限。根据CFM闪存市场的预测，2026一季度，Mobile eMMC/UFS涨幅将达25%~30%， LPDDR4X/5X涨幅或达30%~35%；PC端DDR5/LPDDR5X涨幅将达30%~35%，cSSD上涨25%~30%。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The storage chip sector experienced a collective surge, with stocks like Jiangbolong hitting the daily limit, driven by a price increase in storage chips [1] - Major manufacturers such as SanDisk announced a price hike of over 10% for flash products, while Samsung and Micron also indicated price increases of 10%-30% for their products [1][2] - The price increase trend for storage chips began in Q3 of the previous year, as major companies shifted production from low-margin DRAM to higher-margin products like DDR5 and HBM [1] Group 2: Future Price Projections - The CFM flash memory market report forecasts continued price increases in Q4 2025, with server eSSD prices expected to rise by over 10% and DDR5 RDIMM prices projected to increase by 10%-15% [2] - Other product categories, including Mobile embedded NAND and LPDDR4X/5X, are also expected to see price increases ranging from 5%-15% [2] Group 3: Company Performance - Jiangbolong, a leading domestic semiconductor storage manufacturer, faced a revenue decline of 4.41% in Q1 2025, resulting in a net loss of 1.52 billion yuan [3] - In Q2 2025, Jiangbolong's performance improved significantly, achieving a record high revenue of 59.39 billion yuan, a 39.53% increase from the previous quarter, and a net profit of 2.34 billion yuan, up 215.94% [4] - The company attributed the fluctuations in performance to a recovery in storage demand and improved supply-demand dynamics in the market starting from March 2025 [4]