更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha March 17, 2025 12:41 AM GMT WeiChai Power | Asia Pacific Data NOW: WeiChai's HDT Sales in Feb-25 vs. Share Performance WeiChai (ShaanQi) sold 12.1k HDT units in Feb-25, up 18% y-y (vs. the industry's +36% y-y) and down 3% m-m (vs. the industry's +13% m-m). ShaanQi's monthly market share declined 2.3ppt y-y and 2.4ppt m-m, to 14.9% in Feb-25 (vs. 17.3% in Feb-24 and 17.4% in Jan-25). Exhibit 1: ShaanQi Sales vs. WeiChai H-share performance | Stock Rating | | | Overweight | | | ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha Sean.Wu@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0755 March 17, 2025 04:01 AM GMT March 17, 2025 04:34 AM GMT China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharma | Asia Pacific On 2024 Results and 2025 Outlook - Overall Still a Safe Investment in the Current Environment Key Takeaways We point out two other dynamics as the year progresses. First, the current flu season is delayed compared to the last one, with a majority of incidence falling on 1Q instead of 4Q. So we expect Sanjiu's flu series sales ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Dazhong Laser Technology Group Co., Ltd. Company Overview - Dazhong Laser Technology Group Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the laser equipment industry in China, primarily supplying low-power and high-power laser equipment, PCB equipment, and LED equipment, while also providing automation production solutions. The company is a significant supplier in Apple's supply chain [doc id='16']. Key Industry Insights - The demand for PCB and consumer electronics processing equipment is expected to drive revenue growth in 2025-2026, primarily due to: 1. **PCB Equipment**: Strong demand related to AI infrastructure and capacity relocation. 2. **Consumer Electronics**: Anticipated product changes from major clients like Apple, including new iPhone models and potential foldable phones [doc id='11'][doc id='18']. Financial Performance and Forecasts - **Revenue Adjustments**: The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been increased by 6%-17%, reflecting a 19%-25% increase in PCB and consumer electronics processing equipment revenue, offset by a 6%-8% decrease in other application revenues due to weak demand in LED and industrial sectors [doc id='3'][doc id='35']. - **PCB Revenue Projections**: PCB equipment revenue is expected to reach RMB 3.315 billion in 2024, with a projected growth of 16% in 2025, followed by a slight decline of 5% in 2026 [doc id='24']. - **Consumer Electronics Revenue**: The revenue from consumer electronics equipment is projected to grow from RMB 2.308 billion in 2024 to RMB 2.926 billion in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15% [doc id='19']. Profitability and Margin Expectations - **Gross Margin Concerns**: The gross margin for PCB business is expected to decline to 27% for 2025-2026, down from previous estimates due to increased market competition and aggressive pricing strategies [doc id='5'][doc id='12']. - **Overall Profitability**: The company anticipates a cautious outlook on profitability due to the negative impact of weak demand in the battery and photovoltaic equipment sectors [doc id='5']. Valuation and Target Price - **Target Price Adjustment**: The target price for Dazhong Laser has been raised from RMB 21.00 to RMB 30.50, based on improved earnings forecasts and a revised price-to-earnings ratio of 25x, aligning with historical averages [doc id='6'][doc id='38']. - **Current Stock Price**: As of March 17, 2025, the stock price is RMB 28.64, with a market capitalization of RMB 30.1 billion [doc id='9']. Risks and Market Conditions - **Market Risks**: The current stock price faces slight downward risks, with a pessimistic scenario projecting a target price of RMB 17.60 if macroeconomic conditions worsen and capital expenditures decline [doc id='34']. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: The overall economic environment and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to impact demand visibility for non-PCB and consumer electronics products, leading to modest growth in these segments [doc id='26']. Conclusion - Dazhong Laser is positioned to benefit from the growing demand in PCB and consumer electronics sectors, driven by AI and product innovations. However, profitability concerns and market competition pose challenges that need to be monitored closely. The revised target price reflects a balanced outlook based on expected revenue growth and market conditions.

Summary of Wanhua Chemical - A Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Wanhua Chemical - **Industry**: Chemicals, specifically polyurethanes and diisocyanates Key Financial Highlights - **4Q Performance**: Reported a net profit (NP) of Rmb1.94 billion, down 34% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) and 53% year-over-year (y/y) [2][5] - **Operating Profit (OP)**: Stood at Rmb3.4 billion, a decrease of 14% q/q and 29% y/y, which was broadly in line with expectations [2][5] - **Operational Margin (OPM)**: Improved to 10% in 4Q, up from 8% in 3Q24, despite a significant drop in revenue due to low-margin LPG trading [5] Project Updates - **Yantai 2 Ethylene Cracker**: Expected to start in 2Q25, slightly delayed from previous guidance of end-2024. This project is anticipated to contribute approximately Rmb480 million to NP annually, representing 4% of 2024 NP [2][5] - **1Q25 Outlook**: Forecasted recovery of NP by 50% q/q to Rmb3 billion, driven by the absence of year-end one-offs and improving MDI spreads [5] Market Dynamics - **MDI Market Share**: Wanhua holds a 27% global market share for MDI, with expectations to increase to over 30% by 2025 due to ongoing expansions [19] - **US Tariffs Impact**: US tariffs on China-origin MDI exports increased from 25% to 35% in February 2025 and 45% in March 2025. This could lead to a 3% negative earnings impact if export share is lost [6][21] Investment Thesis - **Valuation**: Price target set at Rmb95.00, based on a mid-cycle price-to-book ratio of 3.2x, reflecting the cyclical nature of the business [19][20] - **Growth Potential**: Anticipated robust growth from expansions in fine chemicals and new materials, including battery cathodes and biodegradable plastics [19] Risks and Catalysts - **Downside Risks**: Include unplanned outages and feedstock cost inflation due to supply tightness [21] - **Upside Catalysts**: Potential competitor disruptions due to energy supply or logistics issues in the EU/U.S. [21] Conclusion - Wanhua Chemical is positioned for long-term growth with significant market share in the MDI sector and ongoing expansion projects. However, near-term challenges include tariff impacts and operational performance fluctuations.

Summary of Desay SV (002920.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Desay SV - **Ticker**: 002920.SZ - **Industry**: Automotive technology, focusing on AI, smart driving, and smart cockpit solutions Key Points Financial Performance - **4Q24 Results**: - Net income increased by 2% YoY but missed estimates by 29% and 20% compared to Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg consensus respectively [1] - Revenue growth slowed to 16% YoY in 4Q24, down from 27% YoY in 3Q24, leading to a total revenue growth of +26% YoY for 2024 [7] - Gross margin (GM) declined to 18.4% in 4Q24 from 20.9% in 3Q24, attributed to accounting adjustments, foreign exchange impacts, and accrued liabilities [1][7] - Operating expenses improved to 9.5% of revenue, better than consensus estimates [7] Revenue Growth Outlook - **2025 Revenue Growth**: Expected to be solid at +38% YoY, driven by the rise of smart EVs in China and advancements in generative AI [1] - **Smart Cockpit Revenue Guidance**: New orders annualized revenue guidance is over Rmb16 billion for FY2025, up from Rmb15 billion in early 2024 [2] - **Smart Driving Revenue Guidance**: New orders annualized revenue guidance is close to Rmb10 billion for FY2025, up from Rmb8 billion in early 2024 [3] Product Development - **Smart Cockpit**: - Gen-4 smart cockpit is in mass production, with Gen-5 launched based on AI chipsets for real-time decision-making [2] - First Head-Up Display (HUD) has started mass production, penetrating markets in Japan and Germany [2] - **Smart Driving**: - High-end smart driving domain controller (IPU04) received new orders from various car OEMs [3] - Collaboration with Chery to develop a central computing platform integrating smart cockpit and smart driving domains [3] Market Expansion - **Overseas Expansion**: - Construction of a smart factory in Spain to support European market expansion [7] - New foreign OEM customers include Honda, TATA Motors, VW, and others [7] Competitive Landscape - **Gross Margin Outlook**: Expected to stabilize at 20% from 2025 to 2027, despite competitive pressures [1] - **Market Position**: Desay SV maintains a leading market position, with a product mix upgrade expected to offset modest automotive market growth in China [10] Valuation and Investment Outlook - **Target Price**: Maintained at Rmb137, with a Neutral rating due to fair valuation [17] - **Risks**: Include competition among Chinese car OEMs, product line expansion speed, and development of automotive software and services [18] Financial Metrics - **2024 Revenue**: Rmb27.6 billion, with a gross profit of Rmb5.49 billion and a net income of Rmb2.005 billion [12] - **2025 Estimates**: Revenue expected to reach Rmb38.1 billion, with net income projected at Rmb3.028 billion [12] Conclusion Desay SV is positioned for growth driven by advancements in smart driving and cockpit technologies, alongside strategic market expansions. However, competitive pressures and market dynamics in China pose risks to its financial performance and margins.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 17 March 2025 Equity Research Report CATL (300750 CH) Buy: Resilient domestic dominance and global expansion opportunities Solid 4Q 2024 results in line with expectations; sustained growth momentum from overseas and ESS battery market expansion and domestic market dominance. On 14 March 2025, CATL announced its 2024 net profit of RMB51bn (up 15% y-o-y), largely in line with the preliminary results announced in January. The company also proposed a total of more than RMB25bn di ...

联影医疗&奕瑞科技 20250320 摘要 Q&A 联影医疗在医疗影像设备领域的产品线布局和市场表现如何？ 联影医疗在医疗影像设备领域的产品线布局非常全面，涵盖了诊断性设备、治 疗性设备以及生命科学仪器。凭借创新产品，联影迅速打开市场，目前在国内 市场份额处于领先地位。公司成立于 2011 年，在短短 15 年内不断推出具有国 • 联影医疗作为国内医疗影像设备龙头，已推出超 120 款产品，覆盖全球 13,700 多家医疗机构，包括 1,000 多家三甲医院，2018-2023 年收入复合 增速达 41%，但 2024 年受下游需求波动影响，业绩承压，预计 2025 年需 求复苏后将回暖。 • 联影医疗收入结构中设备销售占比 89%，维保和软件业务仅占 11%，与西门 子医疗等国际龙头 50%的重复性收入占比相比，仍有较大提升空间，维保 业务有望成为未来收入增长的重要来源。 • 联影医疗约 80%的销售收入来自中国大陆地区，境外市场增速较快，国际 化发展将是公司未来增长的重要驱动力。公司毛利率和净利率均处于业内 较高水平，扣非净利率高达 15%，远超通用电气。 • 联影医疗管理团队经验丰富，多位高管拥有西门子 ...

中信建投固收｜固羽增收 - 信用性价比框架失效了吗 20250320 摘要 Q&A 当前信用债的性价比框架是否失效？ 我们认为当前的信用债性价比框架在某些情况下确实失效。尽管按照之前的性 价比框架，短端信用债已经进入了较好的投资区间，但市场环境和前提条件发 生了变化。自 2022 年起，我们观察到中短票的信用利差（3A 评级、3 年期限） 在 30 到 50BP 之间波动。然而，2024 年的市场调整显示，这一规律并不总是适 用。 • 信用利差受资产荒、流动性及风险偏好影响，2024 年公募基金增持长端信 用债，改变了市场调整模式，3-7 年期债券调整幅度超过短端，需关注资 金面和货币政策。 • 构建信贷性价比框架需满足资产荒、流动性稳定和风险偏好不变三个假设， 否则适用性受限。当前利率债供给增加，传统信用利差配置区间逻辑可能 变化。 • 股市与理财产品存在互动，散户资金流向影响债市，需关注市场分化。广 义基金仓位平衡时应防守，仓位低则需配置，关注资金面和货币政策。 • 2025 年初专项债发行扰动市场，央行紧平衡操作并引导资金中枢偏高运行， 需关注银行态度及其引导方式，而非简单解读为阶段性扰动。 • 当前资 ...

中信证券 1X：人机共生的理想家、安全至上的践行者 20250320 摘要 Q&A YX 公司在技术路线和市场定位上有哪些独特之处？ YX 公司（原名 Halloy Robotics）成立于 2014 年，专注于轻量化和高安全性的 技术路线。2023 年，公司重新品牌定位为 Artec Technologies，并更名为 YX。 其技术路线包括高扭矩低转速的电机设计，旨在实现机器人与人类 1 比 1 的交 互速度。这一设计不仅提高了机器人的安全性，还减少了噪音，使其适用于 C 端家用场景。YX 公司采用霍尔巴赫效应阵列增强电机磁场，实现 25 牛米的峰 值扭矩，并通过谐波驱动传动方式减少惯性，提高安全性。 • YX 公司专注于 C 端家用人形机器人，通过高扭矩低转速电机设计和霍尔巴 赫效应阵列增强磁场，实现安全、低噪音的机器人交互，峰值扭矩达 25 牛 米，并采用谐波驱动减少惯性。 • YX 在人形机器人训练和世界模型搭建方面具有优势，受益于 OpenAI 和英 伟达的投资，利用 Sora 搭建世界模型，预测机器人动作对物理世界的影响， 并与英伟达合作应用 Group N 模型。 • OneS 的 NEO 伽 ...

机器人灵巧手、触觉专家交流 20250320 英伟达最近在大会上重点提到了机器人技术的发展，而特斯拉也即将公布新一 代机器人。这些技术进展包括灵巧手和电子皮肤等方面的创新。灵巧手涉及到 多种传感器技术，包括压电压阻传感器、刚性材料硬件变型数据传感器以及柔 性材料触觉传感器。这些技术迭代不仅提高了机器人的灵活性，还增强了其与 外界环境互动的能力。 • 电子皮肤技术主要分为压电压阻、刚性材料硬件变型和柔性材料触觉传感 器三大类，各有优缺点，成本和精度差异显著，影响其在不同应用场景下 的选择。 • 柔性材料触觉传感器因其成本相对较低和能够适应复杂形状设计，成为当 前研究的主要方向，其中电容电阻式方案性能中庸且价格便宜，磁电式方 案尺寸小巧，适合造型设计。 • 基于磁电原理的触觉传感器虽具有较高测量精度和灵活性，但易受强磁场 环境干扰，需通过算法进行规避，适用于中等和弱磁场环境。 • 灵巧手根据配置不同，成本差异大：低配版约 1-2 万元，高配版 5 万元以 上，触觉传感器成本占比高，高配版单颗价格在 2000-3,000 元，低配版约 1,000 元。 • 灵巧手核心零部件包括空心杯电机（鸣志、西格等）、丝杠（广东 ...