Expect de-stocking cycle in 2025-27E; sales resilient in Dec but cooler in 1Q25E — Nov sales were more resilient than expected after policies & we expect Dec sales likely posting mild "tail bounce" in T1 & good T2 cities, but potentially cooling down in 1Q25E. We see property destocking cycle & price stabilization could continue in 2025-27E, thus est. continued REI decline in '25E. With new starts and land sales both at new lows since 2005, we see likely further downside to new home market size (resi GFA so ...

China Economic Comment China Weekly: Softer Exports and New Credit, CEWC Takeaways CEWC takeaways: bigger deficit, more rate cuts, greater support China concluded the much-awaited annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) on December 12th, outlining the government's main economic objectives and policy plans for 2025, which are largely in line with our CEWC preview and Politburo meeting. As usual, key growth and policy targets were not announced at CEWC but will Economics Figure 1: Net weekly issuance o ...

M Update China Property | Asia Pacific December 16, 2024 01:44 PM GMT Weekly Database Tracker #49 Weekly secondary unit sales in 10 cities were +70% YoY (vs. +92% YoY last week) but -14.9% WoW: Tier 1 city weekly secondary unit sales were +126% YoY (vs. +106% YoY last week) but -1.9% WoW. Tier 2 city weekly secondary unit sales were +43% YoY (vs. +85% YoY last week) but -23% WoW. Among them, Shenzhen had the strongest performance, at +185% YoY. Exhibit 1: Weekly unit sales and four-week moving average – Tot ...

Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot 16 December 2024 ab 12 -120% -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% Jan-20 Sep-20 May-21 Jan-22 Sep-22 May-23 Jan-24 Sep-24 Africa USA Rest of Americas China Rest of Asia Europe Oceania Global We raise our global supply growth forecasts by 60kb/d in 2024 and 0.11Mb/d in 2025 to 0.59Mb/d and 1.35Mb/d respectively. Within this, we cut OPEC+ supply forecasts by 40kb/d for 2025 anticipating improving compliance and reflecting the recent trend in Iranian output, which is larg ...

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Key Takeaways Industry/Company - **Industry**: China Economics, Asia Pacific - **Company**: Not specified, focus on broader economic and policy analysis Core Points and Arguments - **Beijing Forward Guidance**: Beijing provided forward guidance for the fiscal package to be announced in March NPC, marking the first time in over a decade. This was a positive step, although the package is expected to remain modest with a slightly improved mix. - **Consumption Support**: Significant increase in special long-term CGBs for consumer goods trade-in program. The program is expected to double in size next year, covering more non-durable goods. - **Housing Market**: Use of LGSB to support housing inventory digestion and giving local government more autonomy in setting criteria for housing buyback. The size of the housing buyback program could be similar to this year's (~Rmb300bn), but easing the criteria may help accelerate implementation. - **Local Government Fiscal Constraints**: Efforts to promote central-local fiscal reforms and settling payables to corporates. Beijing is expected to adopt more central government leveraging to support the economy and use local debt swaps to mitigate the risk of a deflationary downward spiral. - **Consumption Tax Reform**: A pilot program on consumption tax reform (e.g., high-end watches, jewelry) is possible, but broad-based implementation is unlikely given the deflationary economy. Other Important Content - **Market Reaction**: The market reacted disappointedly to the vague CEWC statement last week, leading to the need for forward guidance. - **Fiscal Package**: The fiscal package is expected to be modest with a slightly improved mix, focusing on consumption support, housing market, and local government fiscal constraints. - **Economic Outlook**: The forward guidance indicates a cautious approach to economic policy, with a focus on addressing specific challenges in the economy.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 US: Trend in Empire still OK despite December drop The December Empire State manufacturing survey declined from its spike in November, with the headline general business activity component decreasing from 31.2 to 0.2. Additionally, the ISM-weighted composite fell from 56.6 to 51.3. The survey had seen an unexpected surge in November, and there had been large increases in the current shipments and orders components. However, today's reading indicated a significant 20+ point drop ...

The Central Financial and Economic Affair Office said new wordings on policies are significant, and concrete measures will be disclosed at the March NPC. M Foundation Final demand is the key Cross-sectional evidence suggests investment slowdown is not enough for reflation 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Dec-24 China ...

Morgan Stanley Research 3 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 후원부출장샵출장샵δεξέρξερξέρδεξέρδριαδέλλβλορια == AMD = ARM Others mintol = Others 4 Morgan Stanley Research 5 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Morgan Stanley Research 7 M Idea 8 in research on the same stock. This may be the result of differing time horizons, methodologies, market events, or other factors. For all research available on a particular stock, please contact your sales representative or go to Matrix at http://www.morganstanley.com/matri ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 16 Dec 2024 09:39:51 ET │ 42 pages Our July 2024 sector downgrade proved overly bearish as we did not expect the pull-forward demand to last into DecQ-24, that has been partly holding SCFI above the 2,000 level. We reassessed risks / rewards and see positive payoffs at 0.8-0.9x 2025E PBV of APAC liners under coverage in relation to revised up 2025E core ROE of 8-12% from cBE earlier. This is driven by expected demand strength in MarQ-25E that is close to be able to cover TransPa ...