Workflow
China Equity Flow Monitor_December 17, 2024
China Securities· 2024-12-19 16:37
Key Points **1. Stock Connect Holdings and Flows**: * **Stock Connect holdings** have increased significantly over the years, reaching $466.73 billion since inception. * **Southbound weekly flows** have been relatively stable, averaging $2.73 billion over the past year. * **Cumulative southbound flows** have been strong, reaching $95.95 billion year-to-date. **2. Sector Analysis**: * **Communication Services** and **Consumer Discretionary** sectors have seen significant inflows, with weekly flows of $1.1 billion and $0.5 billion, respectively. * **Financials** and **Health Care** sectors have also seen notable inflows, with weekly flows of $0.8 billion and $0.2 billion, respectively. * **Industrials** and **Materials** sectors have seen moderate inflows, with weekly flows of $0.3 billion and $0.1 billion, respectively. **3. Top Holdings**: * **Tencent Holdings Ltd** remains the largest holding, with a market cap of $459 billion and a 43% stake. * **China Mobile Ltd** is the second-largest holding, with a market cap of $258 billion and a 99% stake. * **Alibaba Group Holding Ltd** is the third-largest holding, with a market cap of $140 billion and a 58% stake. **4. ETFs and Warrants**: * **ETFs** have seen significant inflows, with the top 10 ETFs having a total AUM of $319 billion. * **Warrants** have seen moderate inflows, with the total warrant market activity reaching $0.7 billion. **5. Market Cap and Performance**: * **Large cap** stocks have outperformed, with the CSI 300 index returning 16% year-to-date. * **Mid cap** stocks have returned 15%, while **small cap** stocks have returned 10%. * **Cyclical** stocks have outperformed **defensive** stocks, with the cyclical sector returning 23% year-to-date compared to 6% for the defensive sector. **6. Margin Trading and Short Selling**: * **Margin trading** has seen significant growth, with the total margin balance outstanding reaching $1.9 trillion. * **Short selling** has also seen growth, with the total short selling turnover reaching $0.4 billion. **7. Index Performance**: * The **HSI** index has returned 16% year-to-date. * The **HSCEI** index has returned 18% year-to-date. * The **A50** index has returned 19% year-to-date. **8. Valuation**: * The **PE ratio** of the **HSCEI** index is at 11.5x, which is at the 67th percentile compared to the 10-year average of 11.1x. **9. Future Outlook**: * The outlook for the Chinese equity market remains positive, with strong fundamentals and supportive macroeconomic conditions. * The market is expected to continue to see strong inflows from both domestic and international investors.
Iron Ore & Coal_Coal_ Why are thermal & met coal prices soft_
Counterpoint Research· 2024-12-19 16:37
Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Basic Materials High CV thermal coal prices in AU (gNEWC) have fallen from ~$150/t in Oct to ~$130/t due to stable supply (Fig51) and softening demand (Fig53) with a warmer-thanexpected start to the winter resulting in elevated stock levels; we expect prices to remain range bound at $120-140/t in 2025, with upside driven by colder weather from La Nina or supply disruption from wet weather or surging gas prices, and downside from strong nuclear & gas output from JKT. API2 pric ...
What We're Watching
Wavestone· 2024-12-19 16:37
更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH One Big Thing: The Long Goodbye The US Economy is humming: Atlanta Fed GDP Now at +3.3% for Q4 3-Oct 10-O ...
Weak Consumption, Supply-Driven Growth
-· 2024-12-19 16:37
M Update 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
Telecom & Cable Services – When Will Winter End for Canadian Telecom_
Car Care & Cleaning· 2024-12-19 16:37
Key Points **Industry Overview** * **Mixed Results**: The industry is experiencing mixed results in terms of earnings and cost of capital. ROIC incorporates returns from operating assets and capital allocation decisions, including acquisitions and spectrum investments. * **Competitive Pressure**: The Canadian telecom industry is facing competitive pressure and slowing growth, partly due to initiatives from the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC) promoting competition. * **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The macro team believes the Canadian economy will remain in excess supply, leading to softer growth in 2H24 and 2025 compared to the central bank's October projections. * **Wireless Market**: The wireless market is experiencing significant competition, with Quebecor capturing market share with lower prices and aggressive strategies. * **Fixed Broadband**: Telus and Bell Canada are expected to benefit from their continued fiber builds in the fixed broadband market. **Company-Specific** * **BCE**: BCE has underperformed the sector for several years and currently has a 11% dividend yield reflecting growth and capital structure concerns. The company's dividend payout ratio exceeds FCF generation, and the Ziply acquisition is expected to be dilutive to FCF at least until 2028. * **Rogers**: Rogers is focused on de-leveraging after the Shaw acquisition, but the challenging industry growth is occurring at an inopportune time. The company's recent structured equity financing is creative but has created some confusion among bond and equity holders. * **Telus**: Telus is well-positioned in the broadband market due to its fiber-rich network and ability to bundle mobile with other services. The company has a more balanced risk/reward profile compared to BCE and Rogers. **Valuation and Outlook** * **Valuation**: The report presents a valuation framework focusing on growth and ROIC rather than yield. It considers factors such as scale, profitability, leverage, financial policy, and shareholder return. * **Outlook**: The report expects the Canadian telecom industry to continue facing challenges, including competition, regulatory changes, and economic conditions. The outlook for BCE, Rogers, and Telus is cautious, with a focus on potential risks and opportunities.
Refining Weekly_Gasoline Inventories Building Rapidly Into Year End
Figure 27: Phoenix Diesel – ANS $/bbl 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5-yr range 2022 2023 2024 50 70 90 10 30 110 130 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Figure 28: Salt Lake City Diesel – WTI Cushing $/bbl - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5-yr range 2022 2023 2024 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 15 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 Figure 29: US Denver – WTI Cushing 3:2:1 Crack Spr ...
China_ 70-city average primary property prices roughly stable in November
-· 2024-12-19 16:37
16 December 2024 | 11:34AM HKT China: 70-city average primary property prices roughly stable in November annualized, -5.8% yoy. 1. After seasonal adjustments, weighted average house prices in the primary market fell by 0.1% mom annualized in November (vs. -3.6% in October; Exhibit 1), on the back of ongoing easing policies. The number of cities that experienced sequentially higher property prices increased notably in both primary and secondary markets in November (Exhibit 3). Year-on-year change in the weig ...
Global Metals & Mining_ China property starts for FY’24 on track to be the lowest in nearly 2 decades, sales rate turns positive in Nov’24
China Securities· 2024-12-19 16:37
Product must take into account existing public information on such security or any registered prospectus. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete and condensed. Note, however, that the Firm has taken all reasonable steps to determine the accuracy and completeness of the disclosures made in the Important Disclosures section of the Product. The Firm's research department has received ...
EMEA Gold Miners_Metals Weekly_ Who is going to buy gold in 2025_ Stay OW Hochschild, AngloGold, & Fresnillo
Andreessen Horowitz· 2024-12-19 16:37
更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 Europe Equity Research 16 December 2024 J P M O R G A N EMEA Gold Miners Metals Weekly: Who is going to buy gold in 2025? Stay OW Hochschild, AngloGold, & Fresnillo JPM Commodities Research (led by Greg Shearer) published their Metals Weekly, focusing on the outlook for gold in 2025 (link). Although gold has rallied ~30% this year, our colleagues maintain bullish outlook for gold prices given a still disruptive macro scenario stemming from increased tariffs, surging trade tensio ...
Global Technology_ Semiconductors_ Top 10 Takeaways from our Asia Tech Tour
AstraZeneca· 2024-12-19 16:37
| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Global Technology: Semiconductors Top 10 Takeaways from our Asia Tech Tour | | | We visited ~25 companies throughout the IT supply chain last week across the ma ...