更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 17 February 2025 | 10:01AM HKT GC Tech: Introducing TAM forecast for China vehicle cams; ADAS/AD to drive vehicle camera shipment growth and specification upgrades We expect vehicle camera shipments in China to reach 126m in 2025E and increase to 343m in 2030E, or a +22% CAGR, driven by the smart driving trend, and the technology feature could enhance driving safety, reducing the burden on drivers, and provide product differentiation to attract buyers. The smart driving trend is ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 ab 17 February 2025 New narrative 2: Synergies between DeepSeek and China's spark of innovation Domestic LLM DeepSeek has again piqued global investor interest in Chinese innovation. We expect China's capital markets to play a bigger role in supporting technological innovation and industrial transformation/upgrades. The broader tech sector's share of overall A-share market capitalisation has risen over the past decade to reach 21% to date. We note that sectors more correlated wi ...

Summary of Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot (February 17, 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil market, highlighting the mixed updates from various agencies regarding supply and demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Key Points Supply Forecasts - The EIA raised non-OPEC+ supply growth for 2025 by 0.13Mb/d to 1.54Mb/d and for 2026 by 0.15Mb/d to 1.02Mb/d, driven by higher US supply [4][48] - The IEA cut its non-OPEC+ supply growth forecast for 2025 by 40kb/d to 1.43Mb/d, while OPEC revised it down by 60kb/d for 2025 and 0.1Mb/d for 2026, both to ~1Mb/d [4][48] - Overall, the EIA's outlook for non-OPEC+ supply in 2025 is the most optimistic at 55.0Mb/d, compared to IEA's 54.5Mb/d and OPEC's 54.2Mb/d [43] Demand Forecasts - Demand growth forecasts for 2025 were mixed: IEA raised its forecast to 1.1Mb/d, EIA to 1.36Mb/d, while OPEC remained unchanged at 1.45Mb/d [3] - UBS raised its demand growth forecast for 2025 by 70kb/d to 1.19Mb/d, citing a lower base effect from 2024 [59] - For 2026, both EIA and OPEC kept their forecasts virtually unchanged at 1.05Mb/d and 1.43Mb/d respectively [3] Market Balance - The UBS model suggests a tightly balanced market for 2025 with a slight surplus of 0.31Mb/d due to higher US supply [59] - The IEA's balance for 2025 is now broadly in line with the EIA's, with a surplus forecast of 0.45Mb/d [23] - The EIA's bearish update for 2026 indicates a larger surplus of 0.98Mb/d, reflecting upward revisions to non-OPEC+ supply [23] Price Scenarios - The report anticipates Brent prices to remain in the mid-$70s, supported by OPEC+ cuts, but warns of potential negative impacts from slower GDP growth and substitution effects [9] - Upside price scenarios could see Brent prices rise towards $80/bbl if Iranian production drops or if OPEC+ compliance improves [11] - Conversely, a downside scenario could see prices drop into the $60s due to a global economic slowdown and increased supply from OPEC+ [12] Geopolitical Factors - The start of the second Trump presidency has heightened uncertainties in the oil market, particularly regarding Iranian and Russian supply [2] - OPEC+ is expected to postpone the unwind of production cuts, currently scheduled to start in April [5] Long-term Outlook - Global oil demand is expected to peak at 106.0Mb/d in 2029 before gradually declining, influenced by rising efficiency and the impact of electric vehicles [61] - The report notes that gasoline demand may decline over time due to increased EV uptake, which could replace 3.6Mb/d of oil for passenger vehicles globally by 2030 [66] Additional Insights - The IEA reported no missing barrels in its February OMR, but noted an overall missing barrels calculation of 0.2Mb/d for 2024, indicating potential underestimation of demand or overestimation of supply [27] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and their potential impact on oil supply and prices [59]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Asia Pacific Equity Research 17 February 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Healthcare Takeaways from JPM's China Opportunities Forum We attended JPM's China Opportunities Forum in Shenzhen on February 13- ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 ab 17 February 2025 Global Research First Read China Internet Sector Undervalued AI picks in China online entertainment and education From upstream to downstream: AI beneficiaries in entertainment/education While much of the market focus on AI has been in the upstream (semi/hardware) and midstream (AI model operators), we believe China online entertainment and education stocks deserve more attention from investors from an AI angle. AI has natural synergies with most China online ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 V i e w p o i n t | 16 Feb 2025 23:28:33 ET │ 14 pages China Economics What Could Sustain Tech-Fueled Market Rally? CITI'S TAKE China markets started the Year of the Snake with a rally of two halves amid the tech story and milder-than-expected trade disputes. Little evidence has indicated a significant improvement in macro fundamentals. From an economic perspective, we see a few catalysts that could potentially sustain and broaden the rally, including property market stabilizati ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 ab 17 February 2025 Global Research China Equity Strategy Follow GBA #4: Transformation under way The GBA's nominal GDP has reached US$2trn in 2024 We estimate the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA)'s nominal GDP reached US$2trn in 2024, a 5.2% CAGR from 2020. We forecast the GBA's nominal GDP will reach US$2.1trn by 2027E, with growth decelerating in line with the overall China economy. More importantly, we observe the GBA is switching gears from services back to ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 ab 17 February 2025 First Read Global Research China Internet Sector Weixin Search & DS integration; sector feedback Tencent is gradually embracing DeepSeek (DS) in its search product So far, Tencent's Intelligent Media Assistant, YuanBao and Weixin Search (pilot testing with some users starting Feb 16) have included DS-R1 into their product offerings. In the search box of Weixin, users can either continue with their traditional search, or use the "AI search" with the "Deep Thin ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 February 17, 2025 04:45 PM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Jack Ma Returns, But will Animal Spirits? Key Takeaways We think the tone of today's symposium was modestly supportive: Similar to the Nov-2018 symposium, top leaders today reaffirmed the institutional foundation for private sector's continued development, pledging to overcome its current difficulties by lower financing cost, resolving pending receivables, and optimizing enforcement of laws and regulations. The commit ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 17 February 2025 | 8:21AM HKT Navigating China Internet: Top 400 app tracker: Rise of AI applications with DeepSeek launches; softer eComm trend in Jan on earlier CNY China's top 400 mobile apps maintained the prior month's momentum with total time spent up +4% yoy in January 2025 (vs. +5% in Dec 2024), with healthy WeChat time spent growth (+4% yoy) and robust Douyin app engagement performance (main app +20% yoy/Lite +17% yoy), slower eCommerce time spent -9% yoy on an earlier ...