Industry Overview 1. **Global Smartphone Market Segmentation**: The global smartphone market is segmented into three price bands: Premium (>US$600), mid-end (US$200-600), and entry level (<US$200). [20] 2. **Market Growth Projections**: The global smartphone market is expected to grow at a modest pace, with a volume growth of +3% YoY to 1.26bn units in 2025E. Market value is projected to grow at a faster rate of 5% YoY to US$573bn in 2025E. [6][8] 3. **Premium Segment Growth**: The premium segment is expected to grow at a 7% CAGR to 418m units in 2024-27E, accounting for 32% of total volume in 2027E. This segment is driven by strong consumer purchasing power and continuous technology upgrades. [21] 4. **Mid-End Segment Decline**: The mid-end segment is expected to decline by 4% CAGR to 306m units from 2024-27E, down to 23% of the total shipment by 2027E. This decline is attributed to the lack of revolutionary technology upgrades and conservative consumer behavior. [24] 5. **Entry Level Segment Stability**: The entry level segment is expected to remain stable, with a volume growth of 3% CAGR to 581m units in 2024-27E, contributing 45% of the total market. [25] 6. **Foldable Phone Penetration**: Foldable phones are expected to become more mainstream, with a penetration rate of 3.1%/ 3.7% / 4.5% in 2025-27E. This growth is driven by price reductions, software improvements, and innovative designs. [12] Company Analysis 1. **Apple**: Apple is expected to maintain its leading position in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] 2. **Samsung**: Samsung is also expected to grow in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] 3. **Xiaomi**: Xiaomi is expected to grow in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] 4. **Lenovo**: Lenovo is expected to grow in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] 5. **ZTE**: ZTE is expected to grow in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] 6. **Sony**: Sony is expected to grow in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] 7. **HTC**: HTC is expected to grow in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] 8. **Asus**: Asus is expected to grow in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] Supply Chain Analysis 1. **Semiconductors**: The semiconductor industry is expected to grow, driven by demand for smartphones, PCs, servers, and other consumer electronics. [37] 2. **Components and Brands**: Companies like MediaTek, TSMC, and SMIC are expected to grow due to increased demand for smartphones and other consumer electronics. [37] 3. **EMS and Surveillance**: Companies like Hon Hai and Pegatron are expected to grow due to increased demand for smartphones and other consumer electronics. [37] 4. **Telecom and Communication**: Companies like ZTE and Huawei are expected to grow due to increased demand for smartphones and other telecommunications equipment. [37]

M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Travel & Leisure Activity Tracker December 6, 2024 10:53 AM GMT Morgan Stanley | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H | | | | Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Jamie Rollo Equity Analyst Jamie.Rollo@morganstanley.com +44 (0)20 7425 3281 | | | | E ...

M Idea Gaming, Lodging and Real Estate | Asia Pacific December 6, 2024 02:30 PM GMT TWA#49: 4Q Data better than feared, but only marginally Macau November GGR and October HK retail sales beat expectations. China RevPAR is also tracking better than 3Q. However, sentiment remains weak across the board. Potential RBI rate cut in Feb could be positive for India Property stocks. Buy side could have already been expecting a much weaker Dec GGR for Macau, which could be positive for stocks. China RevPAR is seeing ...

Company and Industry Overview * **Company**: Zhejiang Dingli Co Ltd. (603338.SS) * **Industry**: Aerial Work Platforms (AWP) manufacturing * **Focus**: The report discusses Dingli's business outlook, earnings visibility, and key developments in trade restrictions and market dynamics. Key Takeaways 1. Positive Outlook and Earnings Visibility * **Increased Confidence**: The report expresses increased confidence in Dingli's business outlook and earnings visibility into 2025E, based on positive feedback on order intakes and favorable trade investigation outcomes. * **Upside to Earnings Forecasts**: The report sees upside to its earnings forecasts due to strong order intakes, particularly during the Bauma China 2024 trade fair. * **Favorable Trade Investigation Outcomes**: The final results of the EU anti-dumping investigation and the US anti-dumping duty administrative review were more favorable than expected, benefiting Dingli's profitability. 2. Trade Restrictions and Tariffs * **US Tariffs**: The final US anti-dumping duty rate was reduced by approximately 20ppt, providing a buffer against potential tariff hikes and margin expansion opportunities. * **EU Tariffs**: The final EU anti-dumping duty rate was lower than the preliminary results and the lowest among all producers, benefiting Dingli's competitiveness. * **Response Plan**: Dingli has a response plan for potential additional US tariffs, including passing on the increased costs to customers and distributors. 3. Market Dynamics and Growth * **North America**: Dingli expects 2024E CMEC sales to exceed USD500mn and 2025E sales to see 20%+ growth, driven by market share expansion and increased sales of boom lifts. * **Europe**: Dingli expects 2024E Europe sales to decline by approximately 10% YoY but to see growth of +10% YoY in 2025E, driven by demand from electrification and replacement. * **Emerging Markets**: Dingli expects sales in emerging markets to double YoY in 2025E, driven by strong order intakes during the Bauma trade fair. * **China**: Dingli expects flat domestic sales in 2025E, driven by sluggish demand, but sees potential growth from differentiated new products in niche markets. 4. Capacity and Investment * **Boom Lifts**: Dingli's annual capacity for boom lifts is currently 7,000~8,000 units, with plans to increase capacity to 8,000~10,000 units next year. * **Scissor Lifts**: Dingli plans to roll out Phase VI capacity for scissor lifts in two years, with a total investment of Rmb1bn. 5. Investment Thesis and Risks * **Investment Thesis**: The report maintains a Buy rating on Dingli, based on its positive outlook, favorable trade investigation outcomes, and growth opportunities in key markets. * **Key Risks**: The report identifies several key risks, including weaker-than-expected construction activities globally, intensifying competition in the Chinese AWP market, and potential trade tensions between the US and China. Conclusion The report presents a positive outlook for Zhejiang Dingli Co Ltd., highlighting its strong order intakes, favorable trade investigation outcomes, and growth opportunities in key markets. However, the report also identifies several key risks that could impact Dingli's performance.

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: IT Services * **Outlook**: Gradually improving cyclical outlook for 2025 * **Key Drivers**: * **Improving demand environment**: Industry headwinds in major verticals like Financials are abating, and discretionary demand is expected to pick up in 2025. * **AI adoption**: AI could become accretive to industry growth within 12-18 months as companies transition from proof-of-concept projects to larger projects. * **Shifting macro landscape**: Potential changes in H-1B visas, scrutiny on government spending, and a possible resolution in Ukraine could impact the industry. Key Company Analysis * **Accenture (ACN, Buy, $420 PT)**: * **Upgrade to Buy**: Believed to be well-positioned to capture a recovery in discretionary spending and has best-in-class AI capabilities. * **Cyclical headwinds moderating**: Financial Services and Consulting segments are seeing improving conditions. * **Outsourcing bookings translating to revenue**: Record-high outsourcing bookings are expected to drive revenue growth in 2025. * **AI potential**: Significant AI investments and partnerships position the company for potential revenue accretion by 2026. * **EPAM Systems (EPAM, Buy, $295 PT)**: * **Upgrade to Buy**: Expected to post improving growth in 2025 as discretionary demand for new technology builds. * **Differentiated provider of high-end engineering services**: Focus on applications and data integration, with a strong engineering edge. * **Ukraine resolution potential**: A potential resolution in Ukraine could improve growth trends and stabilize revenue per employee. * **Cost structure benefits**: Potential to rebuild delivery base in Ukraine and revitalize an attractive cost structure. Other Key Points * **Discretionary spending improving**: Discretionary spending is expected to improve over the course of 2025 as vertical-specific pressures abate. * **AI flywheel gaining momentum**: AI could become accretive to industry growth within 12-18 months as companies transition from proof-of-concept projects to larger projects. * **Shifting macro landscape**: Potential changes in H-1B visas, scrutiny on government spending, and a possible resolution in Ukraine could impact the industry. * **Top Buy-rated ideas**: IBM, Globant, and Accenture are highlighted as companies well-positioned to benefit from the improving IT Services sector. * **Top Sell-rated idea**: TaskUs is identified as facing headwinds in an increasingly challenged BPO market.

6 December 2024 Oil marketsEquities & Commodities Global OPEC+ muddles through, but for how long? ◆ Later and slower OPEC+ production increases supportive to near-term fundamentals; 2025 market almost balanced ◆ Outlook worsens in 2026 as surplus grows if OPEC+ volumes return; the group's only hope may be lower Iranian output ◆ Brent forecast remains USD70/b for 2025 and beyond At its 5 December meeting, OPEC+ agreed to delay production increases by another three months, as was widely expected. This is the ...

EEMEA Oil and Gas Chartbook Equities Oil & Gas No rush EEMEA ◆ OPEC+ agrees to postpone output hikes as oil demand remains weak ◆ The third wave of Saudi jack up rigs suspensions may be larger than expected previously ◆ Oil imports to China rebound on stockpiling, refining margins weakened again, tanker and LNG spot freight rates remain under pressure and European gas inventories dropped below 2022 levels This chartbook provides a monthly commentary about oil and gas markets across EEMEA (page 3). Please cl ...

7 December 2024 China Construction Machinery Equities Machinery 2025 Outlook: Opportunity Emerging China ◆ Export sees solid demand in B&R regions and provides higher margins, albeit tariffs are a downside risk ◆ Domestic sees limited downside and some signs of recovery; we expect mild growth in 2025 and stimulus brings upside ◆ We like Sany and Zoomlion-H; adjust Zoomlion H/A TP to HKD6.2/RMB7.9 (from HKD5.7/RMB8.0), ratings unchanged Looking into 1Q25e, we see investment opportunities emerging, as: 1) Exp ...

V i e w p o i n t | 06 Dec 2024 08:28:04 ET │ 15 pages Meituan (3690.HK) Highlights from Post-3Q24 Management Investor Group Call CITI'S TAKE On Dec 3rd, Citi hosted a post-3Q24 management investor group call with Meituan's VP and Head of Capital Markets Ms. Scarlett Xu and the IR team. Key discussions included: 1) Shen Hui Yuan and Pin Hao Fan update; 2) Core Local Commerce UE factors; 3) Instashopping growth; 4) instore, hotel and travel segment; 5) profitability trend for new initiatives; 6) rationale an ...

M Update December 6, 2024 05:01 AM GMT | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...