Summary of Global Energy Storage Outlook 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Global Energy Storage** industry, particularly the **battery market** and **electric vehicle (EV)** sales dynamics in 2024 and projections for 2025. Key Points and Arguments Battery Demand and Market Dynamics - Total battery demand is projected to grow by **30% year-on-year (y-o-y)** in 2025, driven by robust growth in **China's EV sales** and recovery in **European EV demand** due to stricter CO2 emissions standards [2][10] - In 2024, battery demand growth was also **30%**, primarily due to better-than-expected performance in **China** and **global energy storage systems (ESS)**, despite a slowdown in the US and Europe [2][10] - The **xEV sales** in China are expected to grow by **20%** in 2025, with total global xEV sales reaching **20 million units** [32][37] Regional Performance - **China** achieved an EV penetration rate of **50%** in 2024, significantly outperforming the US and Europe, where penetration rates were **10%** and **20%**, respectively [19][17] - The **US** market is anticipated to grow by **10%** y-o-y in 2025, although challenges remain due to potential policy changes and infrastructure issues [36][10] - **European EV sales** are expected to rebound with a **30%** growth in 2025, driven by new emissions regulations [35][10] Pricing and Profitability - The report notes a **60% collapse in lithium prices** and a **30% decline in battery prices**, which negatively impacted revenue and earnings for battery manufacturers, particularly in Korea [3][10] - Lithium prices are expected to stabilize at **$12,000 per ton** in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 [3][10] Capacity and Utilization - Total battery capacity is projected to grow by **45%** y-o-y to **4,431 GWh** in 2025, with local capacity expected to meet demand across major economies [4][10] - Utilization rates for battery plants, particularly in China, are currently low (30-40%), but improvements are anticipated as companies focus on efficiency [4][10] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - **CATL** remains the market leader with a **35%** share, followed by **BYD** at **18%** and **LGES** at **13%** [5][10] - The report highlights **CATL** and **Samsung SDI** as top picks for investment, citing their strong growth potential and favorable valuations [6][10] Investment Implications - Despite challenges in the US and European markets, the overall outlook for battery demand remains positive, with expectations of revenue and earnings growth in 2025 [10][6] - The report recommends **Tianqi Lithium** and **CATL** as top investment opportunities, emphasizing their strong market positions and growth prospects [6][10] Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the destocking cycle in the Chinese battery value chain has largely ended, but high inventory levels in Korean and Western companies may pose short-term challenges [3][10] - The performance of battery cell makers has been better than that of battery components and lithium companies, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [21][10] This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the global energy storage market, highlighting key trends, challenges, and investment opportunities for 2025.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 8, 2025 04:17 AM GMT China Internet | Asia Pacific 2025 Outlook: A Year of Uncertainties 20025 will likely be a year of external (tariffs, sanctions) and internal (policy, competition) uncertainties, while we expect internet companies to navigate with AI strategy, overseas expansion and capital return. Key OWs: Tencent (Top Pick), TCOM, Meituan; EWs: BABA, JD, KS, BIDU. 2025 will likely be a year of external and internal uncertainties: Externally, we see uncer ...

ab 8 January 2025 Global Research US Equity Strategy - Mid Cap Value Mid Cap Value Manager Performance - January 2025 Manager Performance vs. Russell Mid Value Mid Cap Value managers trailed the Russell Mid Value by -1.0% in 2024 (12.1% vs. 13.1%), net of fees. December was a particulary favorable month, with managers outperforming by +1.0%, and offsetting a more difficult October/November. Sector vs. Stock Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Sector decisions neither helped nor hurt performance in 2024. Ma ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 7 January 2025 Global Research Global Equity Derivatives Strategy 2025 Volatility Outlook: Uncertainty reigns A new ballgame for volatility – see Macro volatility backdrop We have consolidated our multitude of new models for directional relative value and macro/market/stock-specific volatility forecasting. These are well-tested and in some cases use innovative approaches to model probability distributions that we compare to the option-implied (market) distribution ...

Key Points Industry Overview 1. **Cautious on Broader Macro Backdrop**: The report expresses cautious optimism on the broader macroeconomic backdrop, citing lower interest rates, the Trump presidency, GLP-1 nervousness, and generalist exits as potential headwinds for the BioPharma sector. 2. **Positive on Fundamentals**: Despite the cautious macro outlook, the report remains optimistic on the fundamentals of the BioPharma sector, highlighting the potential for stock selection and product-driven catalysts. 3. **Smid-Biotech Turnaround**: The report notes a potential turnaround in sentiment for Smid-Biotech, driven by a more deal-friendly administration and the approaching major patent cliffs. Key Company Picks 1. **Large Cap Pharma**: - **Eli Lilly (Buy; PT: $1,100)**: Top pick due to its leadership in GLP-1 and potential for oral GLP-1 orfoglipron to drive outperformance. - **Merck (Buy; PT: $120)**: Positive outlook following the valuation reset from Gardasil weakness, with upside potential from Keytruda, Winrevair, and Capvaxive. - **BBIO (Buy; PT: $62)**: Unique diversified Smid cap biotech with three pivotal readouts expected in mid-late '25. - **SRPT (Buy; PT: $188)**: Potential for Elevidys DMD trajectory to beat expectations and LGMD to receive more credit. - **VRTX (Buy; PT: $586)**: Poised for strong continued execution and growth from base CF business and increasing diversification across pain and pipeline. - **PTCT (Buy; PT: $71)**: Important catalysts from PKU PDUFA and Huntington's Disease program. - **ARVN (Buy; PT: $74)**: Ph3 VERITAC-2 topline data for vepdegestrant in metastatic breast cancer could support significant upside. 2. **Smid Biotech & Spec Pharma**: - **UTHR (Buy; PT: $475)**: Upside potential from IPF read-outs in 2H25. - **NBIX (Buy; PT: $162)**: Crenessity ramp could indicate a multi-bn$ peak sales opportunity. - **LEGN (Buy; PT: $65)**: Attractive valuation and potential upside from Carvykti. - **MRUS (Buy; PT: $72)**: Upside potential from peto+Keytruda update in head and neck cancer and further indication expansion in colorectal cancer. - **IDYA (Buy; PT: $50)**: Multiple de-risking clinical updates from synthetic lethality programs in 2025. - **JANX (Buy; PT: $69)**: High M&A interests and upside from JANX008 clinical updates in EGFR+ solid tumor. Key Themes 1. **Trump's Impact on BioPharma**: The report discusses the potential impact of President-elect Trump's policies on the BioPharma sector, including drug pricing, FDA regulation, and healthcare reform. 2. **Patent Cliff and M&A**: The report highlights the impending patent cliff and the potential for increased M&A activity as companies seek to replenish their pipelines. 3. **Biotech Survival of the Fittest**: The report discusses the challenges facing Biotech companies, including regulatory/policy uncertainty, positioning, and M&A activity. 4. **Commercial Biopharma Diversification**: The report emphasizes the importance of diversification for commercial-stage biopharma companies, particularly those with core assets facing patent cliffs or terminal value decline. 5. **IRA and Drug Pricing**: The report discusses the potential impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on drug pricing and Medicare Part D reform. Conclusion The report provides a comprehensive overview of the BioPharma sector, highlighting key themes, company picks, and potential risks and opportunities. The cautious macro outlook is offset by positive fundamentals and potential for stock selection and product-driven catalysts.

Key Points **Industry Overview** 1. **Sector Performance in 2024**: European Insurance was the second best performing sector in 2024, up c.25% and outperforming the market by c.15%. This was driven by pricing momentum and favorable market conditions. 2. **Sector Outlook for 2025**: The outlook for the insurance sector in 2025 is more cautious. Key themes include lower bond yields, peak pricing levels, and increased M&A activity. 3. **Downgrade in Industry View**: The industry view has been downgraded from Attractive to In-Line due to the current stage in the interest rate cycle and pricing cycles, as well as higher valuations. **Key Themes** 1. **Lower Bond Yields**: Bond yields are expected to fall through 2025, which could negatively impact insurance earnings, particularly for P&C businesses. This is due to the new accounting methodology (IFRS 17) making insurance earnings more sensitive to interest rate movements. 2. **Peak Pricing**: Most lines of business and industries are at or near peak pricing levels, with the risk of further declines in pricing. This is particularly evident in commercial and reinsurance sectors. 3. **M&A Activity**: Insurers will need to focus on volume growth to drive top-line and bottom-line momentum, leading to increased M&A activity. This is expected to be driven by in-market consolidation rather than large-scale transactions. **Top Picks** 1. **a.s.r.**: a.s.r. is highlighted as a Top Pick due to its strong balance sheet, potential for positive surprises from the Aegon integration and PIM approval, and higher PRT business appetite. 2. **AXA**: AXA is another Top Pick, offering attractive total distribution yields and a free cash flow yield of c.9.2% in 2026e. The company is also well-positioned to benefit from the sale of AXA IM to BNP. 3. **Hannover Re**: Hannover Re is a quality compounder with a strong track record of outperforming in softer pricing environments. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the expected decline in reinsurance pricing in 2026. **Downgrades** 1. **NN Group**: NN Group is downgraded to Underweight due to ongoing pressures on its Dutch Life solvency position, which is sensitive to financial market movements. 2. **Zurich**: Zurich is downgraded to Underweight due to limited upside to valuation and its leverage to a decelerating commercial lines pricing environment. **Other Important Points** 1. **Solvency**: The insurance sector is well capitalized, with strong solvency ratios. However, there could be some volatility in solvency ratios through 2025 due to falling bond yields. 2. **Debt Leverage**: Debt leverage levels have improved in recent years, with the sector generally in good shape. However, there is a risk of higher interest costs if bond yields were to rise. 3. **Asset Risk**: The insurance sector is exposed to potential financial asset market shocks, particularly in the event of a major credit shock. However, the risk of this is considered low at present. 4. **Technology**: Technology is expected to play a key role in the need for consolidation within the insurance sector, with companies that are further ahead of the curve in this respect being better positioned to benefit.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research U.S. Transportation Freight Transports 2025 Outlook Equities North America Transportation Services Thomas Wadewitz Analyst thomas.wadewitz@ubs.com +1-212-713 6116 Michael Triano Analyst michael.triano@ubs.com +1-212-713 3822 Michael DiMattia Analyst michael.dimattia@ubs.com +1-617-748 5628 This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Rese ...

Global Research Healthcare Facilities & Managed Care Hospitals 2025 Outlook; Fundamentals Remain Strong, Despite Noisy Policy Backdrop Hospital Fundamentals Remain Strong... 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 The fundamental outlook for hospitals looks favorable heading into 2025. The labor market has stabilized, with contract labor spending down substantially over the past few years while full-time wage growth has slowed to more normal levels. Professional fees may continue to create ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 | M 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Foundation | | January 8, 2025 08:50 AM GMT | | | | Asia EM Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Kristal Ji | Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ | | | Equity Strategist | | | | Flows & Positioning Guide | Kristal.Ji@morganstanley.com Daniel K Blake | +65 6834-6949 | | Equity Strategist | | | | Daniel.Blake@morganstanley.com | | +65 6834-6597 | EM weekly flows – Outflows continued, led by China an ...

January 7, 2025 09:01 PM GMT China Industrials | Asia Pacific 2025 Outlook: Cycle Bottom; Focus on Operations Industrial cycle could remain L-shaped amid deflation and tariff pressure, with intense competition. Macro policy and company operations are key factors for stock selection. Shuanghuan is our new Top Pick, we also like the leading companies in sub-sectors. Key Takeaways Manufacturing capex cycle to stay L-shaped in 2025: We anticipate mild growth (0-2% y-y) in automation market in 2025, with continu ...