Price Trends - Most gold retail prices have decreased today, with a consistent decline across brands [1][4] - Lao Feng Xiang remains the highest priced at 1396 CNY per gram, while Cai Bai is the lowest at 1370 CNY per gram, narrowing the price gap to 26 CNY per gram [1][3] Detailed Price Listings - Lao Miao gold price is 1392 CNY per gram, down by 4 CNY [3] - Liufu gold price is 1390 CNY per gram, down by 6 CNY [3] - Chow Tai Fook gold price is 1392 CNY per gram, down by 6 CNY [3] - Zhou Liufu gold price is 1377 CNY per gram, down by 6 CNY [3] - Other brands like Shanghai China Gold and Cai Bai have stable prices at 1372 CNY and 1370 CNY respectively [3] International Market Insights - Spot gold prices have shown volatility, with a recent low of 4407.29 USD per ounce and a closing price of 4477.39 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.50% increase [6] - Current spot gold is reported at 4467.69 USD per ounce, down by 0.22% [6] - Factors influencing gold prices include strong USD, geopolitical risks, and weak employment data, with market participants awaiting key economic data for clearer direction [6] Trading Costs and Market Sentiment - CME has raised margin requirements for precious metal futures, increasing trading costs and potentially suppressing speculative trading [6] - The market anticipates further fluctuations in gold prices, particularly with the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [6]

Group 1 - The silver market is struggling to maintain prices above $80 per ounce despite a strong start to the new year, primarily due to margin adjustments by the CME Group leading to sell-offs [2] - Fund manager Jen Bawden predicts silver prices could rise to $200 per ounce, citing a physical supply shortage exacerbated by China's export restrictions, which affect approximately 70% of global supply [2] - The competition for the remaining 22,000 tons of silver in London is intensifying among China, the solar industry, and central banks, indicating a shift towards a national security issue [2] Group 2 - Current price fluctuations in London silver are enhancing bullish momentum, supported by positive signals from the relative strength index after reaching oversold levels [3] - The overall market sentiment remains bullish for silver and gold due to factors such as the continuation of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, declining dollar credibility, rising geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [2] - Bawden views any price pullbacks as long-term buying opportunities and is optimistic about the prospects of silver mining companies, holding positions in several silver-related stocks and ETFs [2]

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.910, while spot gold opened at $4475.71 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $4458.76 per ounce [1] - The previous trading day saw the dollar index rise by 0.14% to 98.874, and spot gold increased by 0.43% to $4332.45 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals showed mixed results, with spot silver down 1.55% at $76.96 per ounce, platinum down 0.78% at $2281.50 per ounce, and palladium up 1.50% to $1794.00 per ounce [1] Inventory Data - As of January 8, COMEX gold inventory stands at 1131.77 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons from the previous trading day [2] - COMEX silver inventory is at 13762.66 tons, down by 101.33 tons from the prior trading day [2] - SPDR gold ETF holdings remain unchanged at 1067.13 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 115.6 tons to 16215.43 tons [2] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 3 recorded 208,000, lower than the expected 210,000, with the previous value revised from 199,000 to 200,000 [4] - The US trade deficit for October 2025 was reported at $29.4 billion, the smallest since June 2009 [4]

Market Overview - The global market is showing strong performance as of the beginning of 2026, but a key test is approaching with the release of the U.S. December non-farm payroll report and a potential Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariff policies [1][2] Non-Farm Payroll Report - The consensus expectation for the December non-farm payroll is an addition of approximately 60,000 jobs, down from a previous value of 64,000, with the unemployment rate expected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.5% [2] - The report is seen as a critical indicator, with potential risks regardless of whether the data is strong or weak, as the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio has exceeded 22, nearing the market peak level seen in January 2022 [2] Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices were influenced by calls from Federal Reserve Governor Milan for a 150 basis point rate cut this year, leading to a rise of over $20 on Thursday, with a 0.48% increase [3] - The current gold price is $1,001.46 per gram, down $3.58 from the previous trading day, with a daily high of $1,006.19 and a low of $999.27 [1] - The market is awaiting the non-farm payroll data, which could significantly impact gold prices depending on the legality of Trump's tariffs, with potential bullish or bearish outcomes [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. trade deficit significantly narrowed in October 2025, dropping from $48.1 billion in September to $29.4 billion, marking a 39% decrease and the lowest level in 16 years [2] - The reduction in the trade deficit was driven by a 2.6% increase in exports, with a notable rise in gold exports, as concerns over potential tariffs dissipated [2] - Imports fell by 3.2% to a near two-year low, with the largest decline seen in pharmaceuticals, as companies reduced imports following the implementation of tariffs [2] Group 2 - Despite the monthly data showing a significant decrease, the long-term trend of a high and rising trade deficit remains unchanged, with a total deficit of $782.8 billion for the first ten months of 2025, an 8% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - If the trend of narrowing trade deficits continues, it could contribute positively to GDP growth in the fourth quarter, although the decline in imports may also indicate weak consumer demand [3] - The impact of tariff policies on trade is evident, with imports from China decreasing from $363 billion to $266 billion, while imports from Vietnam, Mexico, Thailand, and Europe increased [2]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The rebar steel market is experiencing a shift in supply and demand dynamics, with increasing production and inventory levels, while demand remains weak, leading to downward pressure on prices [2][3]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - As of January 8, rebar production has increased for the fourth consecutive week, with factory and social inventories turning from decline to increase [1] - The rebar social inventory reached 2.9018 million tons, an increase of 75,200 tons or 2.66% from the previous week [1] - The rebar factory inventory was reported at 210,000 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Rebar demand has decreased for the third consecutive week, with a total demand of 1.7496 million tons, down by 254,800 tons or 12.71% from the previous week [1] - National construction material factory rebar inventory recorded 1.4793 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons or 6.14% from the previous week [1] - Over the past month, the total increase in national construction material factory rebar inventory was 71,300 tons, reflecting a 5.06% rise [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - According to Baocheng Futures, the supply of rebar is increasing while demand remains weak, leading to a bearish outlook for steel prices [2] - The overall supply-demand structure for steel is weakening, with expectations of continued price adjustments as demand declines more significantly than production cuts [3] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with opportunities to increase short positions being monitored [3]

摘要今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1003.13元/克，较前一交易日下跌1.96美元，跌幅 0.19%，日内高位震荡。当日开盘价1004.76元/克，最高价1006.44元/克，最低价999.51元/克。 高盛在最新研报中指出，即将公布的美国2025年12月非农就业报告不太可能显著改变市场对美联储政策 的预期，除非数据出现重大意外。当前市场已稳固定价美联储将在年中开启宽松周期，首次降息预计在 4月下旬，幅度为25个基点。 高盛预计12月非农新增就业约7万人，与普遍预期基本一致。尽管市场私下预测存在小幅上行风险，但 该行认为接近预期的结果将强化现有宏观叙事，而非打乱节奏。该行强调，只有劳动力数据出现"相当 戏剧性"的上下波动，才可能显著提前或推迟降息时点。 从市场反应看，高盛将7万至10万的区间视为对股市最有利的结果——既反映经济持续扩张，又不引发 通胀担忧或威胁降息周期，支持"经济逐步放缓而非突然停滞"的观点。若数据低于5万人，可能被解读 为低于维持经济稳定的就业增长水平，引发对增长急剧放缓的担忧;若高于12.5万人，则可能促使市场 将首次降息预期推迟至6月。 周四金价在亚欧时段维持小范围震荡 ...

周五(1月9日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格震荡下跌，目前交投于4461.54美元/盎司附近，现货黄金在近期 日内交易中波动，价格回落，此前，黄金价格曾依靠50日均线(EMA50)的支撑反弹，该均线为金价恢复 上涨提供了技术支撑。尽管目前价格有所波动，但短期内主要上涨趋势依然占据主导地位。 美国财政部部长贝森特表示，美国将取消部分针对委内瑞拉实体的制裁；美总统表示2027财年美国军费 应提升至1.5万亿美元，相当于较今年预算增逾50%。在美激增军费下，引起各方猜疑，黄金出现先抑 后扬表现。 另外，1月降息概率较低，截止1月9日早盘，根据CME美联储观察数据，1月维持利率水平不变的概率 为88.4%，降息25个基点的概率为11.6%。 目前，美元在周五亚洲时段触及自12月10日以来的最高水平，并在关键的美国非农就业报告发布前对黄 金价格施加了一些压力。 关键的美国就业数据将提供更多关于美联储降息路径的线索，这反过来将对近期美元价格动态产生重要 影响，并为黄金提供新的方向性动力。 从技术面来看，昨日开盘价格跳空高开高走从4460上涨4466一线开启回落修复早间4456-60的缺口一路 震荡下跌至4415附近；之后价格维 ...

目前来看，焦炭行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于焦炭后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 光大期货分析称，供应方面，焦企整体生产水平相对持稳，个别焦企因利润不佳，有小幅限产现象，焦 企以积极出货为主。需求端，钢厂利润好转，高炉开工率有所回升，对焦炭刚需增加，少数低库存钢厂 积极补库，不过钢材淡季消费疲软，铁水产量增幅有限，预计短期焦炭盘面震荡运行。 国信期货表示，焦炭现货提降，焦企出现亏损，开工动能不足，焦炭日均产量下滑，供应收缩。需求方 面，节后钢厂适当复产，钢联数据显示上周铁水产量低位企稳且有小幅反弹。供需边际好转，下游按需 采购为主，基本面矛盾不足，盘面跟随原料波动，建议短线操作。 中辉期货指出，焦炭第四轮提降落地，市场对第五轮提降存分歧。多轮提降落地后，焦企陷入亏损状 态，但亏损程度不深，短期焦企生产积极性尚可，供应量环比略增。从需求来看，铁水产量环比增加， 但下游补库积极性一般，按需采购为主。短期市场情绪回落，预计维持震荡偏弱运行。 1月9日，国内期市煤炭板块多数飘绿。其中，焦炭期货主力合约开盘报1765.0元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至午间收盘，焦炭主力最高触及1773.0元， ...

美国总统唐纳德.特朗普表示，他将于明日在白宫会见多位石油行业高管。他指出，14家大型石油公司计划投资至少1000亿美元用于重建委内瑞拉 的石油基础设施。 1月9日，原油期货震荡反弹，截至发稿主力合约报429.7元/桶，涨幅达2.80%。 【消息面汇总】 机构观点 宁证期货：投资者在关注委内瑞拉的局势发展的同时，也对俄罗斯、伊拉克和伊朗的石油供应状况感到担忧，隔夜油价大幅反弹。整体上，地缘 冲突频，短线过渡为佳。 国信期货：俄乌的和平协议谈判遥遥无期，而且冲突在持续和加剧。路透社报道说，前往俄罗斯的油轮在黑海海域遭到了无人机的袭击。伊拉克 内阁已经批准了将世界最大的油田之一西库尔纳2号油田的运营收归国有的计划。关注南美、中东、俄乌局势变化。技术面，油价震荡转强。操 作建议：震荡偏多。 根据彭博公布的2026年彭博大宗商品指数(BCOM)目标权重表，2026年布伦特原油的目标权重将从2025年的8.03%调整至8.36%，WTI原油将从 6.97%调整至6.64%。 据伍德麦肯兹咨询公司的数据显示，委内瑞拉2016年石油日产量为230万桶，但去年仅略低于100万桶。该公司认为，委内瑞拉石油产量至少还需 要三到五年 ...