Core Insights - BlackRock has become a significant player in the private credit market, particularly after acquiring HPS at the end of 2024, and is actively fundraising for private markets [1] - The private credit sector has experienced rapid growth, attracting over $220 billion in 2025, but recent high-profile defaults have raised concerns about potential hidden risks [2] - BlackRock's CFO noted that the firm deployed $25 billion into private-market investments in 2025, indicating stable credit conditions despite rising default rates [3] Private Credit Market Overview - Private credit default rates increased to 5.7% at the end of November, up from 5.2% the previous month, with 13 default events recorded in November, more than double the average [4] - BlackRock's portfolios are considered insulated due to a focus on lending to companies with sufficient earnings, with loans in their closed-end investment company, HLEND, made to firms averaging $250 million in annual earnings [4] - Smaller companies with annual earnings below $50 million that took loans at peak valuations are expected to face challenges [5] BlackRock's Position - BlackRock ended the year with over $145 billion in private credit assets and maintains a positive outlook on the structural pipeline for private credit fundraising and deployment [5]

Core Insights - BlackRock has raised nearly $700 billion in net cash, bringing its total assets under management to $14 trillion, with a record $181 billion in net new money from its iShares ETF franchise in Q4 2025 [1][2] Fundraising Strategy - The company has outlined an "ambitious 2026 fundraising plan" focusing on private markets, target-date funds, active ETFs, and international retirement savers [2] - The goal for new private market assets is set at $400 billion by 2030, with significant interest from insurance companies [5] Private Market Focus - 2026 will mark the first full year of BlackRock's acquisitions of private-credit player HPS, infrastructure investor GIP, and private-market-data provider Preqin [3] - The firm plans to launch its first target-date fund with private market exposure later this year, pending regulatory approval for private assets in 401(k) plans [6] Sales and Distribution - BlackRock's sales and distribution team, described as the largest in the industry, is actively promoting HPS products to financial advisors at major wirehouses [7] - The company sees growth opportunities in international markets, particularly in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America [7][8] Investment Products - BlackRock continues to expand beyond fixed-income products, with significant growth in bond investment products, including active ETFs [9] - In 2025, fixed-income ETFs attracted $159 billion in net new money, nearly matching core equity offerings [10]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs recommends investing in emerging market equities over the next one to five years, indicating they offer the highest expected returns compared to US stocks and other markets [1]. Group 1: Emerging Market Equities - Emerging market equities are projected to have an expected base case return of 8%, with a 55% probability assigned to this outcome [2]. - There is a 20% probability that emerging market returns will exceed expectations, while a 25% probability is assigned to a negative mid-teens return [2]. - The volatility in the base case for emerging markets is noted to be the greatest among all markets [2]. Group 2: US Stocks - US stocks, represented by the S&P 500, are forecasted to grow by 7% over the next 12 months and average 6% returns over the next five years [3]. - The report suggests that despite historically high valuations, US stock prices are expected to remain elevated due to declining volatility in the US economy, which supports a more reliable stream of corporate earnings [4]. Group 3: Other Markets - UK stocks and the MSCI All-Country World Index are projected to have average returns of 5% over the next five years, ranking third and fourth respectively [3]. - The forecasts are based on considerations of earnings growth, dividend yields, and expected changes in valuations [3]. Group 4: Investment Products - Funds that provide exposure to the expected top-performing trades include the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF (FLGB), and iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI) [4].

Core Insights - Nvidia is enhancing its leadership and technical teams, reflecting its growing prominence and wealth in the AI chip market [1][3] Leadership Changes - Alison Wagonfeld has been appointed as Nvidia's first chief marketing officer, previously serving at Google Cloud [2][16] - Kristin Major joined as senior vice president of human resources, bringing over 13 years of experience from Hewlett Packard Enterprise [8] - Jiantao Jiao, a former CEO and cofounder of Nexusflow AI, is now a director of research at Nvidia, focusing on AI post-training and infrastructure [10] - Mark Weatherford has taken on the role of head of cybersecurity policy and strategic engagement, with a background in public and private sector cybersecurity [11] - Krysta Svore, previously at Microsoft, is now vice president of applied research in quantum computing at Nvidia [13] - Danny Auble, after Nvidia's acquisition of his startup SchedMD, serves as senior director of system software [14] - Jonathan Ross and Sunny Madra, founders of Groq, joined Nvidia following a significant licensing deal [15] Acquisitions and Talent Strategy - Nvidia has utilized its balance sheet to acquire talent through startup deals, enhancing its software capabilities and market engagement [2][3] - The company completed a $900 million acqui-hire of Enfabrica, which specializes in GPU clustering for AI workloads [12] Departures - Key leaders have departed Nvidia, including Dieter Fox, who left for Ai2, and Minwoo Park, who joined Hyundai [17][19] - The company also experienced the loss of board members Ellen Ochoa and Rob Burgess in 2025 [20]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has implemented a new 25% tariff on certain high-end computing chips, specifically targeting hardware essential to the AI sector while providing exemptions to promote domestic tech manufacturing [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The tariff specifically applies to "certain advanced computing chips," including Nvidia's H200 processor and AMD's MI325X, while excluding chips that support the US technology supply chain [2]. - The proclamation also encompasses imports of semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and their derivative products from any country [2]. Group 2: Future Implications - The administration indicated that this move could be a preliminary step, with potential future expansions of tariffs to a broader range of semiconductors and related products [7]. - National security concerns were cited as a rationale for the tariffs, invoking Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows for trade restrictions based on security risks [7]. Group 3: Strategic Alignment - The tariff aligns with the broader agenda of reshoring advanced manufacturing to maintain a competitive edge in the AI race, with Nvidia being a focal point due to its significant role in powering data centers for AI services [8]. - Previous statements from Trump suggested that Nvidia would be permitted to sell certain advanced chips to China, provided that the US government receives 25% of the proceeds [8].

"You get what you measure" is one of my favorite concepts in modern business. It means people and organizations tend to focus their behavior on whatever metrics get tracked and rewarded. This even applies to tech billionaires.This week, CEO Elon Musk said Tesla will make its FSD service subscription-only and remove the option to buy it outright. On social media, Elon stans theorized and argued with Elon-haters over the reason for this change. As usual, the debate was devoid of nuance. Fans took this as an ...

Core Viewpoint - Verizon is experiencing significant outages affecting tens of thousands of customers, with reports indicating nearly 180,000 outage reports within a short time frame [1][2]. Group 1: Company Response - Verizon acknowledged the outage and stated that their engineers are actively working to identify and resolve the issue quickly, emphasizing the importance of reliable connectivity [1]. - The company issued an apology for the inconvenience caused to customers [1]. Group 2: Impact on Services - The outages have prompted alerts from various cities, including New York City, which is coordinating with utility providers to assess the impact on city agencies and essential services [2]. - Washington, D.C.'s public safety office reported that the outages are nationwide and warned that some users may have difficulty reaching emergency services like 911 [2].

Core Insights - The current trend in women's business attire in finance is focused on high-quality, comfortable pants rather than traditional accessories or shoes [1][2] Company Highlights - **Aritzia**: The Effortless Pant priced at $148 has significantly contributed to Aritzia's growth, with a share price increase of 119% over the past year [4] - **Lululemon**: Known for initiating the expensive pants trend, Lululemon's Daydrift High-Rise Trouser, also priced at $148, has become a popular choice among women [7] - **Abercrombie & Fitch**: The Sloane Tailored Pant priced at $63 reflects the brand's strategic shift towards more sophisticated attire, despite signs of slowing growth [9] - **Arc'teryx**: The Veilance Khara Pant priced at $350 indicates the brand's expansion into women's pants, gaining traction in the market [11] - **Club Monaco**: The High-Rise Fluid Crepe Trouser priced at $248 is noted for its appeal to an upscale demographic, aligning with the brand's old-money aesthetic [14]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla will transition its Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature from a one-time purchase option to a subscription-only model starting February 14, as announced by CEO Elon Musk [1][2]. Group 1: Subscription Model - Tesla owners currently have the option to purchase FSD for $8,000 or subscribe for $99 per month [2]. - The shift to a subscription model aims to increase customer uptake of the FSD technology, which is deemed critical for Tesla's future [2]. Group 2: Subscription Statistics - As of the third quarter earnings call in October, only about 12% of Tesla's current fleet has subscribed to FSD, indicating a need for improved subscription rates [6]. - The company has seen a decrease in quarterly revenue from FSD compared to the same period last year [6]. Group 3: Regulatory and Legal Challenges - The rollout of FSD has faced regulatory scrutiny, including investigations by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration regarding crash reporting and incidents involving FSD [7]. - Tesla is also facing potential legal challenges, including a ruling that could ban the sale of vehicles in California due to misleading marketing of its FSD and Autopilot systems [8]. Group 4: Executive Compensation Ties - Boosting FSD subscriptions is a key component of Elon Musk's compensation package, with a target of reaching 10 million subscriptions to unlock a potential payout of $1 trillion [6].

Core Viewpoint - American investors are increasingly concerned about a potential recession, overheated stock valuations, and the reliance on AI spending to sustain the economy and markets [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs' wealth management unit reassures clients that the outlook for the US economy and stock market is positive, stating that many investor concerns are exaggerated [3][4] - The probability of a US recession is estimated at 25%, down from 35% the previous year, with expectations for continued economic expansion and strong earnings growth for the S&P 500 [5] Group 2: US Investment Landscape - The US is still viewed as the leading destination for global investors, with Goldman Sachs emphasizing that the country’s economic wealth, labor productivity, and capital markets are unmatched by other economies [11][15] - Despite political and tariff uncertainties, foreign investment in the US has rebounded, contradicting claims of capital flight [15] Group 3: AI Investment Impact - Goldman Sachs argues that the narrative of the US economy's fragility due to AI investment is overstated, with AI-related spending contributing only 0.1% to GDP growth in 2025 [20][21] - The firm contends that the performance of the S&P 500 is not solely dependent on AI and the so-called "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, asserting that other sectors also show respectable earnings growth [26][27] Group 4: Market Valuations - While acknowledging that S&P 500 valuations are high, Goldman Sachs does not foresee a market crash, predicting a 7% total return and 10% earnings growth for 2026 [31] - The firm distinguishes current market conditions from past bubbles, asserting that today's tech companies have strong profit margins justifying their valuations [35][36] Group 5: Concerns in Other Assets - Goldman Sachs identifies bitcoin as a bubble, expressing skepticism about its value and warning of potential steep drawdowns [41] - The report also highlights concerns regarding gold prices and generative AI companies, suggesting that some valuations in these areas may be unsustainable [46][48]