Spell Trouble for Software. These Experts Say to Avoid One Stock In Particular][Big Tech Earnings Live: Meta and Tesla Shares Surge on Strong Results; Microsoft Drops as Cloud Revenue Growth Slows] -- Palantir's CEO Is Feeling Good After the Software Company's 'Remarkable' Quarter [Stocks Surge to Begin Another Busy Earnings Week][Oracle Is Raising Billions to Fund Its AI Buildout][Data Blackout Returns As Shutdown Delays Jobs Report][What You Might Expect from Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair]- Top StoriesShares o ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in gold and silver prices is viewed as a tactical move rather than a fundamental shift, with major banks maintaining bullish forecasts for gold prices by year-end [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold and silver experienced their worst sell-offs since 1980, but major banks like JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank have raised their year-end gold price forecasts to $6,300 and $6,000 respectively [1]. - Spot gold was trading at $4,700 late Monday afternoon, despite the recent downturn [1]. - The structural forces driving gold prices, such as central bank demand, remain intact, with expectations for continued accumulation of gold by central banks amid geopolitical tensions [5]. Group 2: Speculative Dynamics - The recent price movements in gold and silver are influenced by speculative trading, particularly in silver, which saw a meteoric rise followed by a significant fall [4][6]. - Analysts suggest that silver prices could drop significantly from current levels, with predictions of a potential 50% decline from recent highs [8]. Group 3: Economic Context - Gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven asset, and its value is expected to be supported by ongoing inflation concerns and market volatility [3]. - The geopolitical landscape, particularly following the U.S. response to Russia's actions, has heightened demand for gold as a hedge [5].

Core Insights - Alphabet is expected to report record-high revenue for the fourth quarter, with projections of $111.37 billion, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase, and adjusted earnings per share anticipated to grow over 20% to $3.09 [1][1][1] Stock Performance Expectations - Traders anticipate a significant movement in Alphabet's stock post-earnings report, with options pricing indicating a potential rise or fall of more than 5% from Monday's close of just under $345, suggesting a range between approximately $328 and $362 [1][1][1] - The stock has already increased about 25% since the last quarterly report in late October, when it surpassed the $100 billion revenue mark for the first time [1][1][1] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts remain largely bullish on Alphabet, with 12 out of 15 analysts rating it as a "buy" and the average price target set at $350, indicating expectations for continued record highs [1][1][1] - HSBC analysts are particularly focused on commentary regarding Google Cloud's capacity to meet AI demand, growth in overall searches, and updates on collaborations with Apple [1][1][1]

Boost.][Elon Musk Says Optimus Robots Are Coming Your Way. That Has Tesla Stock on the Rise.][Meta Is a Top S&P Gainer Today. Here's Why The Social-Media Stock Is Surging.][These Two Charts Sum Up the AI Stock Rally in 2026][What 'Agentic Commerce' Means—And How a Walmart Exec Thinks AI Could Help You Shop][CoreWeave Stock Soars as Nvidia Boosts Its Investment—What You Need to Know][Would You Pay for Facebook? Get Ready for More Social Media Subscription Plans][Why Sandisk, Memory Stocks Have Soared While t ...

-- Disney Stock Slides Despite Strong Earnings as Investors Look Ahead to CEO Succession [What to Expect in Markets This Week][Trump Taps Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair][Gold, Silver Prices Plunge from Record Highs][Trump Wants Lower Mortgage Rates, Not Cheaper Houses]- Top StoriesWalt Disney CEO Bob Iger may step down before the end of the year, according to reports.Michael Reaves / Getty ImagesClose### Key Takeaways- Disney shares were down sharply this morning, leading decliners in the Dow Jones Industrial Av ...

Group 1 - The influx of new residents to smaller cities like Indianapolis, Columbus, and Denver is driven by the search for a lower cost of living, but this may lead to increased pressure on rent rates and housing prices if housing supply does not keep pace with demand [1][1][1] - Population growth in these cities can create a cycle where affordability attracts more people, which in turn drives up costs, as noted by housing experts [1][1][1] - Local leaders are focused on promoting economic growth while managing the challenge of rising living costs, as seen in Denver where the economic development agency is tasked with ensuring housing stock meets demand [1][1][1] Group 2 - The construction of high-end homes has increased, partly due to a growing wealth gap, which may limit the availability of moderately-priced housing options [1][1][1] - A significant number of apartments (18,000 to 20,000) have entered the market in Denver, contributing to a decrease in rent prices, but maintaining this trend is crucial to avoid market disruptions [1][1][1] - The volume of Americans relocating has decreased by over 50% since 2021, with many choosing to stay within the same metro area, indicating a shift in mobility patterns influenced by housing affordability [1][1][1]

Core Insights - The cost to host a Super Bowl party for 10 people is estimated at $140 this year, reflecting a $2 increase from last year, which is a 1.6% rise, slower than the grocery inflation rate of 2.4% [1][6] Food Prices Overview - Chicken wings have seen a price decrease of 2.8% from last year, making them one of the most affordable snacks. Other items like tortilla chips, avocados, carrots, peppers, and frozen pizza have also become less expensive [4][6] - In contrast, shrimp prices have increased by 8.1% to $9.10 per pound, while beef prices rose to $10.01 per pound, marking a 16.4% year-over-year increase [5][6] - Vegetable prices, including cherry tomatoes, celery, broccoli, and cauliflower, have also risen, along with salsa and onion-flavored dips, attributed to labor costs [6] Wage Impact - Average hourly wages have increased by 3.8% to $31.99, providing consumers with more financial flexibility to host parties despite rising food costs [3][2]

Labor Market Overview - The labor market is deteriorating for both employers and job seekers, with job seekers facing fewer openings and longer unemployment durations, as evidenced by the long-term unemployment rate reaching its highest since November 2021 in September [1] - Employers are struggling to find qualified candidates, particularly in industries like homebuilding, leading to a significant slowdown in job creation, with job losses occurring in two months of 2025, a first since the pandemic [2] Job Creation Trends - Economists predict that the U.S. economy will add an average of only 57,000 jobs per month in the first quarter of 2026, a stark decline from the pre-tariff average of 147,000 jobs per month [3] - Job creation has slowed to an average of 38,600 jobs per month since the announcement of tariffs, which is less than a quarter of the previous rate [3] Economic Implications - The slowdown in hiring and the rise in long-term unemployment indicate that both employers and workers are struggling to adapt to a new economic environment characterized by uncertain trade policies, higher borrowing costs, and persistent skills mismatches [4] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies, particularly tariffs, is a significant factor in the slowdown, as businesses are hesitant to expand or hire without clarity on future costs [5] Technological Impact - The increasing adoption of AI in businesses may further impact the workforce, with estimates suggesting that AI could replace 6% to 7% of existing jobs, although new job opportunities may arise as a result [6] Immigration and Workforce Supply - The reduction in immigration due to policy changes has significantly decreased the number of available workers, exacerbating the challenges employers face in finding qualified staff [7] - The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco projects that only 500,000 immigrants will arrive in the U.S. in 2025, a drop from 2.2 million in 2024, which will further limit workforce growth [8] Labor Market Dynamics - There is uncertainty regarding whether the job market's issues stem from a lack of jobs, a lack of workers, or both, complicating the understanding of labor demand and supply dynamics [10] - The Federal Reserve's policy committee is considering the implications of falling labor demand on interest rates, which could lead to cuts aimed at boosting hiring, although the effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain [11]

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh's appointment as the Federal Reserve Chair could significantly impact interest rates, mortgage costs, and overall market stability, reflecting a shift from his previous hawkish stance to a more dovish approach in recent years [2][4][5]. Group 1: Warsh's Background and Views - Warsh served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, initially supporting aggressive measures post-2008 financial crisis but later adopting a dovish tone aligned with President Trump's preference for lower interest rates [2][3]. - His historical skepticism towards the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) programs indicates a potential preference for a smaller balance sheet and less predictable policy communication, which could affect mortgage rates and market dynamics [5][8][10]. Group 2: Potential Implications of Warsh's Leadership - Warsh's leadership may lead to rate cuts by 2026, but uncertainty remains regarding whether his previous hawkish persona will resurface [3][8]. - His critical stance on the Fed's bond market interventions and the current balance sheet of nearly $6.6 trillion suggests that unwinding these measures could lead to higher mortgage rates, conflicting with Trump's goals [5][9]. - Warsh's approach to forward guidance may shift, potentially reducing the frequency of "insurance cuts" and leading to more significant policy changes during inflection points [12][13]. Group 3: Consensus and Institutional Dynamics - Any decisions made under Warsh's leadership will require consensus from the 19-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where divisions exist between hawkish and dovish members [14][15]. - Warsh's ability to navigate these institutional dynamics will be crucial, as he has previously voted for policies he disagreed with to maintain consensus [14][15].

Core Insights - The IRS is now accepting 2025 tax returns, with options for free online filing available despite the discontinuation of the IRS Direct File program for the 2026 tax season [1][10] - Taxpayers can significantly reduce the time and cost associated with filing taxes by utilizing free IRS tax filing and preparation assistance [2] IRS Free File - Taxpayers with an adjusted gross income of $89,000 or less in 2025 can access free tax preparation software through IRS-trusted companies, which may also offer free state tax preparation [3][10] - There are eight trusted partners providing free tax preparation software, each with specific eligibility requirements based on income, age, location, and military status [4] IRS Free File Fillable Forms - The IRS Free File Fillable Forms are available for taxpayers who prefer to prepare and file their own returns electronically, regardless of income level [5] MilTax - MilTax offers a free electronic filing service for active or recently active military members and their immediate family members [6] Private Filing Companies - Some private tax preparation companies, such as TurboTax and H&R Block, provide free federal tax filing options for eligible taxpayers, particularly for simple returns [7] Volunteer Income Tax Assistance - The Volunteer Income Tax Assistance program offers free tax help for taxpayers making $69,000 or less, those with disabilities, or individuals with limited English-speaking abilities [9] Tax Counseling for the Elderly - This program assists taxpayers aged 60 and older, focusing on tax preparation questions related to pensions and retirement issues [11]