行业周报 业 研 [Table_MainInfo] 基本面表现偏弱,需关注宏观预期 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------------------------|----------------|--------------------| | | | | ――金属行业周报 | | 分析师: 张珂 | SAC NO: | S1150523120001 | 2024 年 7 月 17 日 | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | [投资要点: Table_Summary] | | | | 张珂 | | | | | 022-23839062 | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 | | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | | | | [Table_Contactor] | | | | | [Table_IndInvest] 子行业评级 | | | | | 钢铁 | | | | | 有色金属 | | | | [Table 重点品种推荐 _StkSuggest] 博威合金 增持 洛阳钼业 增持 中金黄 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [4][32]. - Recommended stocks include: Oppein Home (增持), Sophia (增持), Good Wife (增持), Pathfinder (增持), and Semir Apparel (增持) [4][32]. Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector's export value for furniture and parts increased by 14.80% year-on-year, while the export value for clothing and accessories remained flat [4][32]. - The average net profit growth forecast for 97 companies in the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors ranges from 48.64% to 103.81% [4][32]. - Companies with over 50% overseas revenue are expected to see net profit growth between 340.41% and 434.01% [4][32]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the U.S. is anticipated to improve overseas demand, positively impacting domestic exports of light industry and textile products [4][32]. Summary by Sections Industry News - In June 2024, the prices of pulp and raw paper in major markets showed a general decline, with specific price changes noted for various types of wood pulp [8]. - Uniqlo's parent company, Fast Retailing, reported a 10.4% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the first three fiscal quarters ending May 2024, indicating a strategic focus on opening flagship stores in China [9]. Company Announcements - Mona Lisa expects a net profit decline of 41.63% to 59.38% year-on-year for the first half of 2024 [25]. - Ru Yi Group anticipates a net profit increase of 177.48% to 193.29% year-on-year for the same period, driven by improved operational performance and sales [25][26]. Market Review - From July 8 to July 12, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.64 percentage points, while the textile apparel sector underperformed by 2.70 percentage points [3][27][30]. - The top five gainers in the light industry manufacturing sector included Hars (17.19%) and Aili Home (12.72%), while the top five losers included PIANO (-17.41%) and ST Jinshi (-16.70%) [27]. - In the textile apparel sector, the top gainers were Fuchun Dyeing and Weaving (11.15%) and Kanglongda (10.13%), with the top losers being Fuanna (-10.99%) and Hailan Home (-8.73%) [30]. Weekly Strategy - The report emphasizes the stable development of light textile product exports in the first half of the year and maintains a "Neutral" rating for the sectors, with specific stock recommendations [4][32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for General Equipment and Engineering Machinery, while "Neutral" for Specialized Equipment and Transportation Equipment [1]. Core Viewpoints - In June 2024, excavator sales reached 16,603 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.31%. Loader sales were 10,794 units, up 26.2% year-on-year. However, the operating hours for Komatsu excavators in China decreased by 2.5% year-on-year to 87.90 hours [2][11][12][13]. - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in engineering machinery demand in 2024 due to the introduction of large-scale equipment renewal policies and real estate optimization policies [4][29]. - Urban rail transit construction is expected to maintain growth, with fixed asset investment in rail transit likely to continue increasing under the goal of building a strong transportation nation [4][29]. Summary by Sections Industry News - June excavator sales were 16,603 units, a 5.31% increase year-on-year. Domestic sales were 7,661 units, up 25.6%, while exports were 8,942 units, down 7.51% [11]. - Loader sales in June were 10,794 units, a 26.2% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales at 5,296 units (up 22.6%) and exports at 5,498 units (up 29.8%) [12]. - Operating hours for Komatsu excavators in China were 87.90 hours in June, down 2.5% year-on-year [13]. Company Announcements - Jiechang Drive announced a projected net profit increase of 116.46%-128.18% for the first half of 2024 [17]. - Furui Special Equipment expects a net profit growth of 296%-381% for the same period [18]. Market Review - From July 3 to July 9, 2024, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.92%, while the mechanical equipment sector dropped by 2.81%, underperforming the index by 1.89 percentage points [20]. - As of July 9, 2024, the price-to-earnings ratio for the mechanical equipment sector was 22.46, with a valuation premium of 94.04% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [24]. Weekly Perspective - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry and recommends "Increase" ratings for Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, and CRRC [4][29].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1][2] Core Views - Steel: Downstream demand is in a seasonal off-peak period, with weak supply and demand dynamics. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention needed on the upcoming Third Plenum [1] - Copper: Antofagasta has agreed on a new processing fee (TC) of $23.25 per dry ton with some Chinese smelters, covering 50% of copper concentrate supply for H2 2024 and H1 2025. Copper prices may fluctuate in the short term due to moderate demand [1][2] - Aluminum: Supply of alumina remains tight, with no large-scale resumption of bauxite mining in Shanxi and Henan. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to steady production release and moderate downstream demand [1] - Lithium: Tariffs imposed by the US and EU on Chinese new energy vehicles and batteries may impact export demand. Lithium prices are expected to remain weak due to oversupply pressures [2] Key Data and Trends Steel - Demand: Shanghai terminal rebar and wire rod procurement volume was 16,300 tons on July 5, up 10.14% from June 28 [9] - Supply: Production of five major steel products was 8.9792 million tons on July 5, down 1.41% from June 28 and 4.14% year-on-year [10] - Inventory: Total steel inventory (social + mill) was 17.561 million tons on July 5, up 0.22% from June 28 and 10.11% year-on-year [14] - Raw materials: PB fines price at Qingdao Port rose 1.95% to 836 yuan/wet ton from June 28 to July 5 [15] Copper - Processing fees: TC/RC for Chinese smelters was $2.60 per ton and 0.26 cents per pound on July 5, up 8.33% from June 28 [22] - Prices: LME copper spot price rose 3.51% to $9,800 per ton, while Yangtze River nonferrous copper spot price rose 2.73% to 79,900 yuan per ton from June 28 to July 5 [23] - Inventory: LME copper inventory increased 6.38% to 191,600 tons, while SHFE copper inventory rose 0.39% to 250,600 tons [23] Aluminum - Prices: LME aluminum spot price rose 0.40% to $2,500 per ton, while Yangtze River nonferrous aluminum spot price rose 0.60% to 20,300 yuan per ton from June 28 to July 5 [25] - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased 2.65% to 999,700 tons, while SHFE aluminum inventory fell 2.19% to 152,500 tons [25] Lithium - Prices: Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate price fell 1.29% to 91,800 yuan per ton, while lithium concentrate (6%-6.5%) import price fell 0.98% to $1,015 per ton from June 28 to July 5 [31] Recommended Stocks - The report maintains "Overweight" ratings for the following stocks: Boway Alloy (601137), CMOC Group (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Yunnan Tin (000960), and Zijin Mining (601899) [2] Market Performance - From June 28 to July 5, the steel sector rose 1.92%, while the non-ferrous metals sector gained 2.61%. Precious metals and industrial metals were among the top performers [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [36][45]. - Specific stock recommendations include "Buy" for Oppein Home, Sophia, Haotaitai, Pathfinder, and Semir Apparel [36]. Core Insights - The Turkish government will impose safeguard measures on imported corrugated base paper starting July 28, 2024, with a tax of $87/ton in the first year, decreasing slightly in subsequent years [10]. - The U.S. apparel market shows mixed signals, with signs of economic recovery such as rising imports and stable inventory levels, but concerns remain regarding changing consumer preferences and inflation pressures [11]. - In June, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 10.47 million square meters, a new high for the first half of the year, despite a year-on-year decline of 24.72% [36]. Industry News - The report highlights the impact of real estate policy improvements on stabilizing market confidence and boosting demand in the real estate supply chain [36]. - The textile and apparel export situation has improved since the second quarter, with a 1.60% year-on-year increase in exports in May, reaching $13.247 billion [36]. Company Announcements - Xianggang Technology expects a net profit increase of 104.08% to 206.12% year-on-year for the first half of 2024 [30]. - Shangpin Home Furnishing plans to repurchase shares at a price not exceeding 20 yuan per share, with a total value between 25 million and 50 million yuan [30]. Market Review - From July 1 to July 5, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.51 percentage points, with a decline of 1.39% [32]. - The textile and apparel sector also underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.46 percentage points, with a decline of 1.34% [34].

业 行业月报 北京出台地产优化政策,关注工程机械需求改善 ——机械设备行业 7 月月报 | 分析师: 宁前羽 | SAC NO : | S1150522070001 | 2024 年 7 月 3 日 | |----------------------|-------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | 证券分析师 | | | | | 宁前羽 | 投资要点: | | | | 022-23839174 | | | | | ningqy@bhzq.com | 行情回顾 | | | | | 2024 年 6 月 2 日 -2024 | 年 7 月 2 日,沪深 300 | 指数下跌 3.02% ,申万机械 | | | 设备板块下跌 8.02% | ,跑输沪深 300 指数 5.00 | 个百分点,在申万所有一级行 | | 子行业评级 | 业中位于 ...

行业半年度投资策略报告 把握出海主线,寻高股息优质标的 ――2024 年轻工制造&纺织服饰半年度策略报告 投资要点: 家居行业弱复苏,以旧换新或撬动存量需求 近年国内房地产行业持续承压,今年前 5 月,住宅类商品房销售面积同比下 降 23.60%,但中央和地方政府持续出台地产宽松政策,如降低首付比例和住 房公积金贷款利率等。目前家具类商品零售额呈现弱复苏态势,前 5 月同比 增长 3.00%。申万家居用品行业韧性较强,一季度营收同比增长 10.28%,归 母净利润同比增长 8.81%,软体家居板块表现亮眼。"以旧换新"政策深化推 进,短期有助于撬动存量市场需求。 家居出海:库存边际变化推动短期需求,跨境电商奠定长期发展基石 家具产品出口表现亮眼,前 5 月累计出口额同比增长 16.60%,保持较好景气 度。短中期看,美国渠道商或启动补库周期,一定程度驱动家具出口稳增长, 后续美国降息预期落地或带动地产销售改善,继续推动家具出口向好。长期 来看,跨境电商的快速发展,特别是在中国平台崛起和品牌化趋势的推动下, 为家居产品的出海奠定了坚实基础。 纺织制造订单改善可期,品牌服饰出海恰逢时机 纺织制造行业受益于出口数据 ...

行业月报 6 月价格集体调整,《稀土管理条例》发布 ――金属行业 7 月月报 | 分析师: | 张珂 | SAC NO : | S1150523120001 2024 年 7 月 2 日 | |----------------------------|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券分析师 张珂 | | 投资要点: | | | 022-23839062 | | 行业数据 | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | 钢铁:根据中国物流信息中心数据, | 6 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile and apparel sectors, with "Overweight" ratings for specific companies including Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), Taobao (300005), Good Wife (603848), and Semir Apparel (002563) [40][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy adjustments in Beijing aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which includes changes to the minimum down payment ratios and interest rates for commercial personal housing loans [39]. - The report notes a slight decline in wood imports in the first five months of 2024, with a total volume of 27.85 million cubic meters, down 1.2% year-on-year, and a trade value of $5.77 billion, down 2.64% [17]. - The report indicates that the textile and apparel export situation has improved since the second quarter, with major Taiwanese textile manufacturers reporting significant revenue growth in May 2024 [39]. Industry News - Camel has launched a new high-end outdoor brand, Himalaya, targeting the premium market with a focus on professional outdoor products [18]. - The report discusses the recent performance of the light industry manufacturing sector, which underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points, with a decline of 1.93% [12][35]. High-Frequency Data - As of June 28, 2024, domestic TDI and MDI prices have decreased, with TDI averaging 13,900 CNY/ton and MDI at 18,400 CNY/ton [19]. - Domestic prices for needle and broadleaf pulp have also declined, with needle pulp at 6,267.78 CNY/ton and broadleaf pulp at 5,383.20 CNY/ton [22]. Company Announcements - Wangli Security plans to grant 21.31 million restricted shares to no more than 341 individuals as part of its incentive plan [33]. - Fuanna intends to grant 12 million restricted shares to 163 individuals under its revised incentive plan [34]. Market Review - From June 24 to June 28, the light industry manufacturing sector saw a decline of 1.93%, while the textile and apparel sector fell by 2.58%, both underperforming the CSI 300 index [35][37]. - The report lists the top gainers and losers in the light industry and textile sectors during this period, highlighting significant fluctuations in stock performance [35][37].

行业半年度投资策略报告 品种表现分化,看好铜金组合 ――金属行业 2024 半年度投资策略报告 | 分析师: | SAC NO : | S1150523120001 | |----------------------|--------------|---------------------------------| | 证券分析师 | | | | 张珂 | 投资要点: | | | 022-23839062 | | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | 行业回顾 | | | 子行业评级 | | | | 钢铁 | | | | 有色金属 | | | | 重点品种推荐 | | | | 博威合金 | | 铜供需预期收紧,价格有望维持高位 | | 洛阳钼业 | | | | 中金黄金 | | | | 紫金矿业 | | | | 最近一年行业相对走势 | | | 2024 年 6 月 28 日 短期看,处于低位的铜矿冶炼费反映出铜矿供应偏紧,若下半年谈判的长协 | 加工费大幅回落,铜冶炼端供给有减产的可能;同时 | |--------------------------------------------------| ...