Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Macro and Trade Analysis - **Date**: August 12, 2024 - **Analysts**: Zhou Xi, Song Yiwei, Yan Peipei, Jin Peipeng Key Points Export Dynamics 1. **Weakening Export Momentum**: July exports grew by 7.0% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from June, marking the end of a three-month upward trend. Month-on-month growth turned negative, reaching the lowest level since November 2023, excluding February 2024. The decline in export momentum is attributed to weakening external demand and the expiration of tariff exemptions by the US on Chinese goods, as well as the EU's imposition of countervailing duties on Chinese electric vehicle exports [4][4][4] 2. **Import Growth Surprises**: July imports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, a significant rise of 9.5 percentage points from June. Month-on-month growth was 3.4%, ending a negative trend observed since early 2024. The unexpected rebound in import growth is primarily due to base effects, although actual momentum remains weak. When using 2019 as a base year, the average compound annual growth rate of imports for the month decreased by 1.1 percentage points, the lowest for the year [4][4][4] 3. **Rising Export Uncertainty**: Looking ahead, August exports are expected to continue the downward trend due to a higher base effect. Factors contributing to this include a slowdown in US inventory replenishment and rising supply chain pressure indices from the New York Fed. Geopolitical tensions may further impact exports [4][4][4] Risk Factors 1. **Geopolitical Risks**: Increased global political uncertainty may disrupt market risk appetite [4][4][4] 2. **Economic and Policy Changes**: Recent fluctuations in overseas economies and domestic economic transitions may lead to unexpected policy adjustments [4][4][4] Financial Market Insights 1. **Regulatory Environment**: The central bank has reduced liquidity, with a net withdrawal of 1.1 trillion yuan. The money market showed slight fluctuations, with DR007 rising by 7 basis points to 1.77% [6][6][6] 2. **Primary Market Activity**: In the primary market, 82 bonds were issued, totaling 701 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 579.5 billion yuan. The issuance of special bonds remained stable [6][6][6] 3. **Secondary Market Trends**: Most interest rates rose due to increased regulatory oversight, with the 1-year government bond yield up by 2 basis points to 1.43% and the 10-year yield up by 5 basis points to 2.18% [6][6][6] 4. **Market Outlook**: The focus remains on regulatory measures affecting long-term yields. If these measures persist, long-term yields may rise sharply, although the upward space for yields remains limited due to unchanged fundamentals [6][6][6] Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by over 20% in the next 6 months - **Hold**: Expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10%-20% in the next 6 months - **Neutral**: Expected to perform within -10% to 10% of the CSI 300 index in the next 6 months - **Reduce**: Expected to underperform the CSI 300 index by over 10% in the next 6 months - **Positive Outlook**: Expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by over 10% in the next 12 months [10][10][10] Additional Notes - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring regulatory changes and their impact on market dynamics, particularly in the context of ongoing economic transitions and geopolitical tensions [6][6][6]

行 业 研 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo]低锂价压力下雅宝暂停澳洲扩张计划 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | | | | ――金属行业周报 | | 分析师： | 张珂 | ： S1150523120001 | 2024 年 8 月 6 日 | | [Table_Author]证券分析师 | | | | | 张珂 | | | | | 022-23839062 | | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | 钢铁：本周钢材产量继续收缩，库存小幅下降；据 | Mysteel 不完全统计，预 | | [Table_Contactor] | | 月将有部分钢厂减产检修，初步测算建材减量达 | 198 万吨；螺纹钢新 | | [Table_IndInvest]行业评级钢铁 | 中性 | 旧国标切换 ...

行 -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% SW机械设备 沪深300 [Table_Doc] 业 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo]7 月挖掘机销量约 1.37 万台，同比增长 8.6% ――机械设备行业周报 分析师： 宁前羽 SAC NO： S1150522070001 2024 年 8 月 7 日 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行业要闻 1) 国务院办公厅印发《加快构建碳排放双控制度体系工作方案》。 2) 国务院印发《深入实施以人为本的新型城镇化战略五年行动计划》。 公司重要公告 1) 天宜上佳：与西通航签订《战略合作协议》。 2) 华东重机：终止投资建设亳州年产 10GW N 型高效太阳能电池片生产基 地项目。 3) 华锐精密：发布 2024 年半年度报告，实现归母净利润 7,193.77 万元。 周行情回顾 2024 年 7 月 31 日至 2024 年 8 月 6 日，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.78%，申万机 械设备行业上涨 1.15%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.93 个百分点，在申万所有一级 行业中位于第 12 位。 估值方面 ...

行 业 行业周报 研 [吨 able_MainInfo] 促消费再出新政，美联储降息预期关注出口链 究 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 袁艺博 022-23839135 yuanyb@bhzq.com [Table_Contactor] | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------| | 子行业评级 | | | 家居用品 | 中性 | | 造纸 | 中性 | | 包装印刷 | 中性 | | 文娱用品 | 中性 | | 纺织制造 | 中性 | | 服装家纺 | 中性 | | 饰品 | 中性 | | [Table_StkSuggest]重点品种推荐 | | | 欧派家居 | 增持 | | 索菲亚 | 增持 | | 好太太 欧派家居 | 增持 | | 探路者 | 增持 | | 森马服饰 | 增持 | [Table_IndQuotePic] 最近一季度行业相对走势 行 业 周 报 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 分析师： 袁艺博 SAC NO： S1150521120002 2024 年 8 月 5 日 [吨 able_Summary] 投资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [30][39]. - The report recommends "Overweight" ratings for specific companies: Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), Haotaitai (603848), Ternua (300005), and Semir Apparel (002563) [30][39]. Core Insights - In the first half of the year, the domestic furniture retail sales totaled 72.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.60% [30][8]. - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles reached 709.83 billion yuan, growing by 1.30% year-on-year [30][19]. - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 7.09 percentage points from June 24 to July 26, with a decline of 9.56% compared to the index's decline of 2.47% [30][26]. - The textile and apparel sector also lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 7.62 percentage points, with a decline of 10.09% [30][26]. Industry Development - The furniture industry is experiencing stable growth, supported by the "old-for-new" policy, which has been reinforced to enhance consumer demand [30][8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology noted that the optimization of real estate policies has boosted market expectations, further releasing the consumption potential in the furniture market [30][8]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to be supported by approximately 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds, aimed at promoting large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacements [30][30]. Market Strategy - The recent increase in activity in the real estate market is attributed to policy adjustments aimed at supporting housing demand [30][29]. - The report highlights that the furniture market's consumption potential is being further released due to product innovation and customization capabilities [30][30]. - The report suggests that the demand for home products is likely to increase as the effects of the "old-for-new" policy become more pronounced [30][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [19] - It recommends an "Overweight" rating for specific companies including Bo Wei Alloy (601137), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Xiyang Co. (000960), and Zijin Mining (601899) [19] Core Views - The lithium market is experiencing weak demand from downstream sectors, with only essential purchases being maintained. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have proposed increasing subsidies for new energy buses and battery replacements, which may improve demand to some extent. However, due to oversupply pressures, lithium prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [18][59] - In the copper sector, there are ongoing disruptions at the mining level, and smelting fees are at historical lows. Domestic demand is performing reasonably well, supported by equipment upgrades and policies aimed at boosting consumption. The report suggests monitoring related sectors [19] - The gold market is expected to benefit from a high probability of interest rate cuts this year, with significant inflows into global gold ETFs providing support for gold prices. The complex geopolitical situation and high U.S. debt levels are also favorable for gold [19] - The tin industry is anticipated to recover gradually, driven by the semiconductor sector and developments in AI and new energy [19] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to focus on new technologies and industries such as smart connected vehicles, hydrogen energy, and low-altitude economy [27] - A joint action plan was released to support the aluminum industry in expanding the use of non-fossil energy sources [27] - Codelco's copper production decreased by 8.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 due to operational issues and adverse weather [27] - The report highlights that the average profit margins for various steel products have decreased significantly, indicating a challenging environment for the steel industry [41] Industry Data Steel - As of July 26, 2024, the total steel production was 8.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.96% from July 19, 2024, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.22% [31] - The capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces and electric furnaces were 89.61% and 49.79%, respectively, indicating slight declines [33] - The total steel inventory was 17.34 million tons, with a slight decrease of 0.02% from the previous week but an increase of 8.28% year-on-year [35] Copper - The copper smelting fees were reported at $9.10 per ton, with a decrease of 4.21% from the previous week [45] - The LME copper spot price and the Longjiang non-ferrous copper price both saw declines, with LME copper down 2.12% and Longjiang copper down 2.78% [45] Aluminum - The aluminum market is facing tight supply due to weather impacts, with LME aluminum prices down 3.59% and Longjiang aluminum prices down 1.44% [53] Rare Earths and Minor Metals - Prices for light rare earths have increased, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide up 0.97% to 363,500 yuan per ton [67] - Tungsten concentrate prices decreased by 0.76% to 130,000 yuan per ton [71]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for general equipment and automation equipment, "Neutral" for specialized equipment and transportation equipment, and "Positive" for engineering machinery [6][26]. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry, with specific "Increase" ratings for Sany Heavy Industry, China CRRC, and Zoomlion [20][21]. - In the first half of 2024, the national engineering machinery operating rate was 48.97%, indicating a recovery in the market [7][20]. - A total of 13,853 major projects were initiated nationwide in the first half of 2024, with a cumulative total investment of 100,654.3 billion yuan [6][20]. Summary by Sections Industry News - In the first half of 2024, 13,853 major projects were initiated, with a total investment of 100,654.3 billion yuan. This includes various infrastructure projects such as highways, railways, and water management [6][20]. Industry Data - The operating rate of engineering machinery in the first half of 2024 was 48.97%, with several provinces exceeding 60% [7][20]. Company Announcements - Langhong Technology reported a net profit of 24.96 million yuan for the first half of 2024, a 40.26% increase year-on-year [9]. - Haichang New Materials forecasted a net profit growth of 70%-100% for the first half of 2024 [10]. - Guangsha Huaneng projected a net profit increase of 29.09%-34.65% for the same period [11]. Market Review - From July 17 to July 23, 2024, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 1.67%, while the machinery equipment sector dropped by 1.97%, underperforming the index by 0.30 percentage points [13][15]. Weekly Insights - The estimated excavator sales for July are approximately 14,000 units, reflecting an 11.06% year-on-year increase, indicating a market recovery [20]. - The report suggests that recent policies aimed at optimizing the real estate market may positively impact housing sales and, consequently, the demand for engineering machinery [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [4][30]. - Specific stock recommendations include "Buy" for companies such as Oppein Home, Sophia, Haotaitai, Pathfinder, and Semir Apparel [4][30]. Core Insights - Demand is showing signs of improvement, with leading packaging paper companies initiating a new round of price increases [8]. - The domestic retail sales of clothing, shoes, and furniture have remained stable, with growth rates of 1.30% and 2.60% year-on-year, respectively [4][30]. - The whiteboard paper market has experienced a price increase, with prices rising by 30.00 yuan/ton recently, indicating a positive demand outlook for the second half of the year [30]. Industry News - The whiteboard paper industry has seen a price increase of 50 to 100 yuan/ton starting from mid-July, following a previous increase of 200 to 300 yuan/ton for white card paper [8]. - The Southeast Asian e-commerce market has shown significant growth, with a total GMV of 114.6 billion USD in 2023, marking a 15.00% year-on-year increase [9]. Company Announcements - Huayi Group expects a net profit growth of 20.00% to 30.00% for the first half of 2024 [25]. - Songlin Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 66.05% to 90.96% for the same period [25][26]. Market Review - From July 15 to July 19, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.28 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector lagged by 4.87 percentage points [3][27]. - The textile and apparel sector's retail sales have shown stability, with exports remaining steady, contributing to a positive outlook for leading manufacturers [30].

业 研 [Table_MainInfo] 6 月全球黄金 ETF 延续流入资金 行业周报 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|------------------|--------------------| | | | ――金属行业周报 | | 分析师: 张珂 | : S1150523120001 | 2024 年 7 月 23 日 | | | | | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 钢铁:下游处季节性消费淡季,钢铁消费环比下降,钢材产量随之走弱;当 前行业供需双弱,基本面对价格缺乏支撑,需关注宏观预期对价格的影响。 铜:CSPT 召开季度会议,敲定 2024 年第三季度铜精矿现货 TC 指导价为 30 美元/干吨,冶炼端仍存减产预期;消费淡季下,需求端仍表现一般,预计 短期铜价震荡运行。 铝:晋豫地区铝土矿未有全面大规模复产消息,叠加部分地区降雨影响,氧 化铝供给仍维持紧张局面;国内铝下游行业需求表现一般,电解铝维持供应 宽松,预计短期铝价震荡运行。 锂:据 Mysteel 消息,其调研的 42 家样本企业中,仅有 7 家锂盐生产企业在 7 月出现了停产检修,预计 7 月锂盐 ...

行 业 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo] 2024 年 6 月叉车销量约 11.17 万台,同比增长 11.1% ――机械设备行业周报 分析师: 宁前羽 SAC NO: S1150522070001 2024 年 7 月 17 日 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: [Table_Author] 证券分析师 宁前羽 022-23839174 ningqy@bhzq.com 行业要闻 1) 6 月叉车销量约 11.17 万台,同比增长 11.1%。 2) 6 月起重机销量为 4718 台,各品类均有所下降。 证 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------| | [Table_IndInvest]子行业评级 | | | 通用设备 | 看好 | | 专用设备 | 中性 | | 交运设备 | 中性 | | 工程机械 | 看好 | | 自动化设备 | 看好 | 3) 欧盟委员会公告对原产于中国的移动式升降作业平台作出反倾销初裁。 公司重要公告 1) 柳工:发布 2024 年半年度业绩预告,归母净利润同比增长 45%-70%。 2) 山推股份 ...