行 行业月报 业 研 究 继续关注工程机械、机器人板块投资机会 ——机械设备行业 12 月投资策略展望 分析师： 宁前羽 SAC NO： S1150522070001 2025 年 12 月 4 日 机械设备 投资要点： 行情回顾 宁前羽 ningqy@bhzq.com 022-23839174 重点品种推荐 | 中联重科 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 恒立液压 | 增持 | | 捷昌驱动 | 增持 | | 豪迈科技 | 增持 | 近半年行业指数走势图 2025 年 11 月 2 日-2025 年 12 月 2 日，沪深 300 指数下跌 1.86%，申万机 械设备行业下跌 3.67%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.81 个百分点，在申万所有一级 行业中位于第 24 位。 截至 2025 年 12 月 2 日，申万机械设备行业市盈率（PE，TTM）为 43.59 倍，相对于沪深 300 的估值溢价率为 210.68%。 个股方面，涨幅居前的有大鹏工业（517.22%）、精创电气（330.74%）、航 天动力（57.78%）、华丰股份（42.90%）、工大高科（36.76%），其中大鹏 工业 11 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The US economy in 2026 may be more fragile than it appears, with growth driven mainly by AI-related investments and high-income consumer spending, while other contributions remain minimal [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates due to concerns about the labor market, but the space for cuts is limited, aiming slightly below the nominal neutral rate [3] - In Europe, external risks are skewed to the downside, with challenges arising from the recovery of internal economic momentum, while defense spending supported by fiscal measures may revitalize investment in the Eurozone [3] Domestic Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" framework will be adjusted to focus on solidifying development foundations while promoting a unified national market and expanding autonomous openness [4] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a more proactive stance, with an emphasis on early deployment and investment in human capital [4] - Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative but with a focus on credit quality and more precise liquidity management [4] Domestic Economic Environment - China's economic growth in 2026 is projected to remain around 5%, with investment stabilizing first while consumption requires systematic policy support [5] - Industrial value-added growth is expected to remain stable due to good external demand, while the ability of high-tech industries to break through will be crucial for improving operational efficiency [5] - Inflation is anticipated to rebound slightly, with a key focus on whether PPI growth can significantly recover [5] Fund Research - In November, the market saw a decline, with the average drop for equity funds being 2.43%, while the mini funds (500 million to 1 billion) had the smallest average drop of 2.26% [9] - The number of new individual investor accounts decreased significantly after several months of growth, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [8] - The private equity market continued to recover, with the total scale reaching a three-year high of 22.05 trillion yuan [8] Financial Engineering Research - The A-share market experienced a broad adjustment in November, with the ChiNext index dropping 4.23% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.67% [12] - The margin trading balance decreased slightly to 24,660.50 billion yuan, with a notable drop in the number of investors participating in margin trading [13] Industry Research: Metals - The steel industry may see weakened demand in December due to weather factors, leading to reduced production and fluctuating prices [15] - Copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply and low domestic inventory, supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [15] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to experience stable profits due to low alumina prices, despite a potential decline in downstream demand [15] Industry Research: Pharmaceuticals - The National Healthcare Security Administration is conducting negotiations for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List, which may impact pharmaceutical companies [20] - The medical manufacturing industry is facing pressure, with cumulative revenue declining by 2.9% year-on-year [21] - The upcoming release of the new basic medical insurance drug list and the first commercial insurance innovative drug list is expected to create investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector [22]

Industry Overview - The report highlights a warming expectation for interest rate cuts, which is expected to boost metal prices, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve's potential policy changes [1][3]. Steel Industry - In December, demand for steel may continue to weaken due to weather factors, leading to a reduction in steel production and a fluctuating price trend [3][19]. - The steel industry is expected to benefit from growth policies, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase, alongside trends in equipment upgrades and low-carbon transitions [5][19]. - The average daily transaction volume of construction steel in October 2025 was 101,300 tons, down 1.13% month-on-month and 13.06% year-on-year [20][19]. Copper Industry - The copper supply remains tight, with expectations of continued high price fluctuations supported by low domestic inventory levels and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [3][36]. - In October, domestic refined copper production was 1,204,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.89% [37][36]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the copper industry, driven by demand from power grids, electric vehicles, and AI servers [5][36]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is experiencing a stable profit level for electrolytic aluminum plants due to low alumina prices, although downstream demand is expected to weaken in December [3][41]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October was 3,798,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.23% [42][41]. - The report anticipates that the aluminum price will continue to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [5][41]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, influenced by the Fed's interest rate policies and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation [3][47]. - From October 31 to November 28, 2025, COMEX gold prices increased by 6.05% to $4,256.40 per ounce [47][47]. New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain high due to strong demand in the energy storage sector, despite a slight decline in demand from the electric vehicle sector [3][52]. - Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increased by 17.50% to 94,000 yuan per ton from October 31 to November 28, 2025 [53][52]. - The report indicates a trend towards regulatory strengthening in the lithium supply side, which may optimize the future supply structure and support lithium prices [5][52]. Cobalt Industry - The cobalt market is expected to face pressure on prices due to a potential decline in demand from the power battery market, while the consumer electronics sector remains robust [4][62]. - In October, domestic cobalt sulfate production was 12,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.72% [66][62].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][4] - The content primarily focuses on market data, financing and securities lending balances, and industry/stock-specific financing and securities lending characteristics[1][8][56] - No quantitative models or factors are constructed or tested in the provided report[1][2][4]

市场震荡下行，私募规模创三年新高 ――公募基金 12 月月报 核心观点： 证券分析师 宋旸 songyang@bhzq.com 022-28451131 张笑晨 SAC NO：S1150525070001 zhangxc@bhzq.com 022-23839033 相关研究报告 ETF 简称迎统一规范，宽基 指数获得资金净流入—公募 基金周报 2025.11.24 跨境 ETF 持续净流入，"南向 ETF 通"名单扩容—公募基 金周报 2025.11.17 权 益 市场 主要 指数 多数 上 涨，债券类 ETF 规模迎来新 高—公募基金周报 2025.11.10 分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2025 年 12 月 3 日 通过对主动权益基金行业仓位的测算，11 月主动权益基金加仓幅度靠前的行业为家用 电器、有色金属和食品饮料；减仓幅度靠前的行业为国防军工、计算机和电子。同 时，我们对主动权益基金的整体仓位进行了测算，2025/11/28 的仓位是 81.96%，较上月 上升了 2.12pct.。 ⚫ 上月市场回顾： 11 月沪深市场主要指数震荡下跌，其中，科创 50 跌幅最大，下 ...

宏 观 研 究 | | | 宏观经济分析报告 chunj 战术上的收敛，目标内的平衡 | | | | | | ――2026 | 年宏观经济展望 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 周喜 | | SAC NO： | S1150511010017 | | 2025 年 月 | 12 | 3 | 日 | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | | | 周喜[Table_IndInvest] | |  | 海外经济及政策环境 | | | | | | | 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威 [Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 j ...

晨会纪要（2025/12/03） 发行及成交金额增长，继续选择票息策略——信用债 12 月投资策略展望 基金研究 权益市场全面迎来修复，公募基金规模再创新高——公募基金周报 风险偏好持续上升，成长风格占据市场主导——公募基金 2026 年年度投资策 略 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额大幅上升——2026 年融资融券年报 证 公司研究 券 盈利能力提升明显，各业务发展稳步推进——民士达（920394）2025 年三季 报点评 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.03） 固定收益研究 研 行业研究 究 报 "冰雪假"拉动相关消费，盈峰溢价受让索菲亚股份——轻工制造&纺织服 饰行业 12 月投资策略展望 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 9 晨会纪要（2025/12/03） 固定收益研究 发行及成交金额增长，继续选择票息策略——信用债 12 月投资策略展望 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001 ...

晨会纪要（2025/12/02） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.02） 宏观及策略研究 外贸环境趋稳，制造业景气度回升——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/12/02） 宏观及策略研究 外贸环境趋稳，制造业景气度回升——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、事件： 2025 年 11 月 30 日，统计局公布了 PMI 数据，11 月制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合 PMI 产出指数分别为 49.2%、49.5%和 49.7%。 2、点评： （1）制造业景气水平有所回升，产需两端纷纷改善。具体而言，11 月生产节奏有所 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The report highlights a divergence in the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, with a 70% market expectation for a cut in December, although the actual impact may be similar whether it occurs in December or January [3][4] - In the U.S., retail sales showed a slowdown, particularly in the automotive sector, while investment in AI-related fields continues to support economic growth [3] - Domestic industrial profits have declined, with a notable drop in profits for mid and downstream industries, while upstream sectors benefited from stable raw material prices [4] Fixed Income Research - The report indicates a downward trend in the average issuance guidance rates for credit bonds in 2025, with a decrease of 151 basis points to 39 basis points compared to 2024 [5][7] - Credit bond issuance in 2025 decreased compared to the previous year, but net financing increased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity in the bond market, with a focus on the "debt and development" narrative, suggesting that credit risk is perceived to be low [7][8] Industry Research - The report discusses the State Council's initiative to promote provincial-level coordination of basic medical insurance, enhancing the system's security capabilities [13][17] - Recent FDA approvals for innovative treatments, such as BeiGene's Sotigalimab for lymphoma, highlight the ongoing advancements in the biopharmaceutical sector [14][15] - The report notes a decline in the SW pharmaceutical index, with a current P/E ratio of 51.78, indicating a significant premium over the CSI 300 index [16] - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the innovative drug sector, particularly in diagnostics, vaccines, and related pharmaceutical companies [16]

晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投 资策略报告 工企利润短期波动，后续关注政策部署——2025 年 1-10 月工业企业效益数据 点评 行业研究 把握创新与出海机遇，关注新技术空间——医药生物行业 2026 年度投资策略 报告 大模型厂商发力 C 端应用，关注 AI 应用商业化落地——计算机行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投资策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 1、 ...