Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Accumulate" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is supported by pre-holiday inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises and the introduction of stable growth policies, which are expected to boost market confidence and potentially support steel prices if the fundamentals continue to improve [4][5]. - For copper, the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is becoming more pronounced, with expectations of a strong copper price if downstream demand continues to improve [4][46]. - Aluminum prices may also be supported by improving downstream demand and the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [4][52]. - Gold prices are expected to stabilize if the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index shows signs of slowing down, with long-term attention on the Fed's interest rate path [4][59]. - The cobalt market is experiencing tight supply conditions due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is likely to strengthen cobalt prices in the short term [4][20]. - The rare earth market is expected to see price fluctuations due to weak seasonal demand, with attention on international trade policies affecting exports [4][5]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan" targeting an average annual growth of 4% in value added for the steel industry over the next two years [22]. - The plan includes ten specific measures focusing on consumption peak, supply quality improvement, industry transformation, effective consumption expansion, and deepening open cooperation [22]. - Recent data indicates a slight increase in steel demand due to construction material consumption, while supply has decreased slightly, leading to a marginal improvement in the market [22][23]. Copper Industry - The copper market is showing signs of recovery in downstream demand, with increased operating rates in domestic copper rod enterprises [45][46]. - The supply side remains stable, and the copper price is expected to be supported if demand continues to improve [46][49]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is benefiting from improved downstream demand and stable production costs, with expectations of price support from the Fed's easing policies [52][53]. Precious Metals - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic indicators, with potential price support if inflation data shows signs of slowing [59][60]. Cobalt and Rare Earths - The cobalt market is facing supply constraints due to export restrictions from the DRC, while the rare earth market is experiencing price volatility amid weak demand [4][20].

投资策略 [Table_MainInfo] 流动性增量过程延续，关注政策及产业亮点 ——A 股市场 2025 年四季度投资策略报告 | 究 | 分析师： | 宋亦威 | | SAC NO： S1150514080001 年 9 月 | 日 | 2025 | 24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_Analysis] 证券分析师 | | | [Table_Summary] | | | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | | | | 宋亦威 | |  | 宏观方面，伴随基数的走高和前期"抢出口/转口效应"所带来的需求前置 | | | | | | 022-23861608 | | | 等影响，外需面临边际回落压力，贸易环境依然存在不确定、不稳定因 | | | | | | songyw@bhzq.com | | | | | | | | | | | | 素，令出口端难以成为基本面的有效支撑。内需方面，国内市场供强需 | | | | | | [Table_Author] 严佩佩 | | | 弱的特征仍在，在消费与投资 ...

Core Views - The report indicates that the yield rates of credit bonds have mostly risen, with the overall change ranging from -5 BP to 5 BP during the period from September 15 to September 21 [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds has increased on a month-on-month basis, with corporate bonds maintaining zero issuance while other varieties saw an increase in issuance amounts [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds has also increased, with corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds showing positive net financing, while company bonds, medium-term notes, and directional tools showed a decrease [2] Market Performance - The transaction amount of credit bonds in the secondary market has increased, with all varieties seeing a rise in transaction amounts [2] - The credit spreads have shown differentiation due to the varied performance of interest rate bonds, with short-term yields widening and long-term yields narrowing [2] - The report notes that the credit spreads for short-term bonds remain at historical lows, while long-term bonds have seen an increase in spreads, particularly for 5-year and 7-year AAA-rated bonds, which have reached around the 10% and 20% percentiles respectively, indicating high allocation value [2] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that despite the recent market fluctuations, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and yields are expected to enter a downward channel in the long term [2] - It recommends an active allocation strategy, particularly focusing on the trends in interest rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of aligning investment strategies with market trends and adjusting trading strategies accordingly, while also monitoring the impact of growth-stabilizing policies on the bond market [2][3] Real Estate Market Insights - The report highlights that the central and local governments are actively optimizing real estate policies, which is expected to positively influence the stabilization of the real estate market [3] - It notes that the recovery of the real estate market will take time, and the sales recovery process will significantly impact bond valuations [3] - The focus for investment should be on high-quality central enterprises, state-owned enterprises, and well-guaranteed private enterprise bonds, with a potential for yield enhancement through longer durations [3] City Investment Bonds - The report states that the likelihood of default on city investment bonds is low under the current backdrop of stabilizing growth and preventing systemic risks [4] - It suggests that city investment bonds remain a key allocation target, although there may be valuation volatility risks during the transition of financing platforms [4] - Future opportunities may arise from the reform and transformation of "entity-type" financing platforms [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the period from September 15 to September 21, the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors mostly increased, with an overall change range of -5 BP to 5 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, while corporate bonds remained at zero issuance, and the issuance amounts of other varieties increased. The net financing of credit bonds increased month - on - month, with an increase in the net financing of corporate bonds and commercial paper, and a decrease in the net financing of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and private placement notes. The trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market increased month - on - month, and the yields of most credit bonds rose. Credit spreads showed a differentiated trend, with short - to - medium - term spreads narrowing and long - term spreads widening. [1][61] - On September 19, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges issued a notice to optimize bond repurchase business. When the closing price of corporate bonds drops by 5% compared to the 20th trading day before, the repurchaser can repurchase bonds to stabilize market fluctuations. [2][64] - The central and local governments are actively optimizing real estate policies, which are playing a positive role in stabilizing the real estate market. For real estate bonds, investors with high - risk tolerance can consider early layout, focusing on high - quality bonds of central and state - owned enterprises and some high - quality private enterprises. [2][65][66] - Against the background of stable growth and prevention of systemic risks, the probability of urban investment bond defaults is low, and they can still be a key allocation variety. However, during the process of local financing platform clearance and transformation, some urban investment bonds may face valuation fluctuations. [3][66] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First - level Market Situation 3.1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From September 15 to September 21, a total of 407 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 326.433 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 25.20%. The net financing of credit bonds was 88.638 billion yuan, an increase of 17.911 billion yuan month - on - month. [12] - Corporate bonds remained at zero issuance, with a net financing of - 4.241 billion yuan, an increase of 2.288 billion yuan month - on - month. The issuance amount of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes increased, but the net financing of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and private placement notes decreased. [12] 3.1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors mostly increased, with an overall change range of -5 BP to 5 BP. The rate changes varied by term and rating. [14] 3.2 Second - level Market Situation 3.2.1 Market Trading Volume - From September 15 to September 21, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 896.955 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 22.76%. The trading volumes of all varieties increased. [17] 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds, the credit spreads showed a differentiated trend, with 1 - year and 3 - year spreads narrowing and 5 - year and 7 - year spreads widening. [20][28][38] 3.2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA+ medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed, while the 5Y - 3Y and 7Y - 3Y spreads widened. For rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) and (AA)-(AAA) spreads remained unchanged, and the (AA+)-(AAA) spread narrowed. [45] - For AA+ corporate bonds, the 3Y - 1Y, 5Y - 3Y, and 7Y - 3Y term spreads widened. For rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) and (AA)-(AAA) spreads widened, and the (AA+)-(AAA) spread remained unchanged. [50] - For AA+ urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed, while the 5Y - 3Y and 7Y - 3Y spreads widened. For rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) and (AA)-(AAA) spreads widened, and the (AA+)-(AAA) spread remained unchanged. [53] 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustments and Default Bond Statistics 3.3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From September 15 to September 21, the rating of one company was downgraded. [57] 3.3.2 Default and Extension Bond Statistics - Wuhan Contemporary Science & Technology Investment Co., Ltd.'s credit bond "H20 Technology 4" defaulted, with a default balance of 650 million yuan. There were no credit bond extensions during this period. [59][60] 3.4 Investment Views - In terms of absolute returns, the supply shortage and strong allocation demand support the strength of credit bonds. Although fluctuations are inevitable, the conditions for a full - scale bear market in credit bonds are still insufficient. In the long run, yields will enter a downward channel, and the strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments is still feasible. [1][61] - In terms of relative returns, due to the low historical levels of rating spreads, credit risk - taking is not effective at present. High - grade long - term bonds have certain advantages, and the duration can be appropriately extended, but the rhythm needs to be grasped. [1][61] - For real estate bonds, with the market gradually stabilizing, investors with high - risk tolerance can consider early layout, focusing on high - quality bonds of central and state - owned enterprises and some high - quality private enterprises. [2][66] - For urban investment bonds, they can be a key allocation variety, but attention should be paid to the valuation fluctuations during the clearance and transformation of local financing platforms. [3][66]

Market Overview - The major indices in the equity market showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% and the Shanghai 50 Index declining by 1.98% [2] - Among the 31 first-level industries, 13 experienced gains, with the top five performing industries being coal, electrical equipment, electronics, automobiles, and machinery [2] - The five industries with the largest declines were banking, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, steel, and agriculture [2] Public Fund Market - The scale of the Shanghai and Shenzhen ETF exceeded 5.1 trillion yuan [2] - In the past month, 14 actively managed equity funds were closed early [2] - Among equity funds, the average increase for equity-oriented funds was 0.63%, while fixed income plus funds saw an average decline of 0.08% with a positive return ratio of 41.65% [2] - Pure bond funds had an average increase of 0.03%, and pension target FOFs rose by an average of 0.54% [2] - QDII funds averaged an increase of 1.37%, with a positive return ratio of 81.14% [2] Fund Positioning - The industries with the highest increases in active equity fund positions were media, coal, and electrical equipment, while the largest decreases were in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and comprehensive sectors [3] - The overall positioning of active equity funds was measured at 77.69% as of September 19, 2025, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points from the previous period [3] ETF Market - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 13.612 billion yuan last week, with cross-border ETFs contributing a net inflow of 16.079 billion yuan [3] - Stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of 4.856 billion yuan [3] - The average daily trading volume in the ETF market reached 469.267 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover rate of 10.34% [3] - Major inflow themes included brokerages, robotics, and gold ETFs, while broad-based funds continued to see outflows, particularly from the Shanghai Stock Exchange STAR 50, CSI 300, and CSI A500 indices [3] Fund Issuance - A total of 31 new funds were issued last week, a decrease of 24 from the previous period, while 56 new funds were established, an increase of 17 [3] - The total amount raised by new funds was 70.735 billion yuan, an increase of 48.941 billion yuan from the previous period [3]

晨会纪要（2025/09/22） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.22） 宏观及策略研究 广义财政支出增速边际放缓——2025 年 1-8 月财政数据点评 海外开启降息，国内托底内需——宏观经济周报 固定收益研究 央行重启买债预期升温——利率债周报 行业研究 把握出海机遇，关注创新产业链——医药生物行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/09/22） 宏观及策略研究 广义财政支出增速边际放缓——2025 年 1-8 月财政数据点评 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 2025 年 9 月 17 日，财政部公布 2025 年 1-8 月财政收支情况： （1）1-8 月，全国一般公共预算收入 148198 亿元，同比 ...

Market Overview - In the recent trading period from September 12 to September 18, major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.13% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.38% [2] - The trading volume increased, with a total of 12.65 trillion yuan traded, averaging 2.53 trillion yuan per day, which is an increase of 278.79 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] Economic Data - From January to August, fixed asset investment grew by 0.5% year-on-year, reflecting a marginal decline of 1.1 percentage points [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to August increased by 4.6% year-on-year, which is a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to July [3] Policy Developments - Recently, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued measures to expand service consumption, proposing 19 measures focused on promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand [3] - The policy measures indicate a proactive approach to stimulate service consumption in light of the need to boost consumer demand [3] International Developments - On September 18, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [3] - The Fed's forecast for the policy rate in 2025 has been adjusted down to 3.6%, suggesting a potential for an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts within the year, indicating a trend towards further easing of overseas liquidity [3] Investment Strategy - The A-share market is exhibiting strong structural characteristics, with a focus on stabilizing the overall market while the technology-driven sectors are showing active performance [3] - The continuation of liquidity inflow will be crucial for maintaining the current structural market trends [3] Industry Focus - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector due to the promotion of domestic alternatives in computing power and the upcoming peak season for smart terminal releases [4] - Other sectors with potential investment opportunities include pharmaceuticals, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and machinery, driven by factors such as innovative drug exports, high demand for energy storage, and the anticipated mass production of robots [4]

Industry Research - In August, forklift sales reached 118,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.4% [2] - A significant increase in sales of aerial work vehicles was noted, with 490 units sold in August, representing a year-on-year growth of 88.5% [2] - The machinery equipment sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 2.45 percentage points, with a 4.41% increase from September 10 to September 16, 2025 [2] - The current demand for engineering machinery is driven by ongoing projects in hydropower and urban renewal, alongside a reduction in tariff disturbances globally, enhancing the competitiveness of domestic machinery [2][3] - The industry maintains a "positive" outlook, with specific recommendations for companies such as Zoomlion (000157) and Haulotte Technology (002595) [3] Company Research: Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (600276) - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical is a leading pharmaceutical company in China, focusing on technological innovation and international expansion, with over 110 commercialized drugs, including 23 innovative new molecular entities [4][6] - The company is expected to receive approvals for approximately 47 innovative drugs and indications from 2025 to 2027, covering various fields such as oncology and metabolic diseases [6] - The company has made significant progress in international collaborations, enhancing its product strength and global recognition, with over 20 overseas clinical trials initiated [6] - The forecasted net profit for Heng Rui Pharmaceutical from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 8.05 billion, 9.88 billion, and 11.71 billion yuan respectively, with an EPS of 1.21, 1.49, and 1.76 yuan per share [7]

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for August 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, lower than the expected 5.6% and previous value of 5.7% [4] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year, below the expected 3.8% and previous value of 3.7% [4] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth was only 0.5%, significantly lower than the expected 1.3% and previous value of 1.6% [4] Consumption Trends - The growth rate of retail sales in August was weaker than market expectations due to diminishing policy effects and declining consumer willingness [5] - Restaurant income saw a recovery due to summer outings and platform subsidies, but retail sales growth slowed down by 0.4 percentage points to 3.6% [5] - The automotive and jewelry sectors performed relatively well, but overall consumption growth faces challenges due to rising baselines and employment expectations [5] Investment Expectations - Fixed asset investment growth has declined for five consecutive months, with manufacturing investment dropping by 1.0 percentage points to -1.3% year-on-year [6] - Infrastructure investment growth fell by 4.4 percentage points to -6.4% due to adverse weather conditions [6] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 2.5 percentage points to -19.5%, with new construction and completion rates also decreasing [6] Fixed Income Research - Credit bond yields have risen across the board, reaching yearly highs, while credit spreads have shown differentiation among short- and medium-term notes [8] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased, with company bonds and medium-term notes showing positive net financing [8] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a focus on adjusting strategies in response to yield fluctuations [8] Fund Research - The equity market indices all rose, with the Sci-Tech 50 index increasing by 5.48% [11] - The average return for equity funds was 2.28%, while fixed income funds showed a slight decline [11] - A total of 55 new funds were issued, raising 217.94 billion, which is a decrease from the previous period [12] Industry Research on Solid-State Batteries - Solid-state batteries are seen as a key trend in battery technology, with sulfide electrolytes being the main research focus [14] - The demand for lithium, germanium, zirconium, titanium, and lanthanum is expected to rise significantly due to solid-state battery development [16] - Companies with upstream resource advantages and strong R&D capabilities in solid-state battery materials are recommended for investment [17]

Macro and Strategy Research - In August, social financing increased by nearly 500 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in government bond financing, which fell by 251.9 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the first time it became a drag on social financing this year [2] - The weak performance of credit financing is attributed to low demand from the real economy, particularly in the context of capacity optimization, leading to low corporate financing willingness [2] - Short-term loans for enterprises showed relative improvement, transitioning from a net withdrawal in August 2024 to net financing in August 2025, likely due to rising bond market yields and increased financing costs [2] - M1 growth rate rebounded to 6.0% in August, influenced by the cessation of "manual interest compensation" and accelerated fiscal fund disbursement [3] - Overall, August financial data reflects insufficient financing demand, with notable changes including weakened government bond financing support and a shift of resident deposits towards non-bank financial institutions [3] Industry Research - The listing of double glue paper futures is expected to improve profitability for packaging paper companies, as it allows for better cost control and revenue stability through a closed-loop management of price risks from raw materials to finished products [6] - Recent price adjustments in white cardboard and corrugated paper indicate a new round of price increases, with prices for corrugated paper, boxboard, and whiteboard paper rising by 50 yuan per ton week-on-week [6] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.50 percentage points from September 8 to September 12, while the textile and apparel sector underperformed by 0.71 percentage points [6] - The upcoming release of 690 billion yuan in national subsidy funds is expected to support domestic demand in the home furnishing sector, while the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts may stimulate overseas demand [7] - The strategy maintains a "neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors, with specific stocks like Oppein Home (603833) and Sophia (002572) rated as "buy" [6][7]