Macroeconomic and Strategic Research - In November 2025, China's exports in USD terms increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while imports rose by 1.9%, leading to a trade surplus of $111.68 billion, a significant increase from the previous month's surplus of $90.07 billion [3][4] - The increase in exports was driven by the easing of previous disturbances, stable external demand, and a lower base effect, with exports to Africa and the EU showing substantial growth [3][4] - The cumulative trade surplus for the year surpassed $1 trillion, marking a historical high, with mechanical and electrical products contributing almost entirely to export growth [3][4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance of credit bonds decreased, while corporate bonds saw an increase in issuance, leading to a net financing decrease in credit bonds [5][7] - Credit bond yields rose across the board, with a divergence in credit spreads observed among different bond types, indicating a mixed market sentiment [7][9] - The report suggests that despite the current bearish conditions, the overall environment for credit bonds remains supportive for long-term investments, with a focus on adjusting strategies based on market trends [7][9] Industry Research - The steel industry is expected to face increasing pressure as demand weakens, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated [10][12] - Copper prices are supported by supply constraints due to accidents at major mines, while demand is expected to rise with the global shift towards lower interest rates [10][12] - The aluminum sector is projected to benefit from macroeconomic liquidity, with expectations of improved profitability driven by demand from the electric vehicle and high-voltage power grid sectors [10][12] - The rare earth industry is highlighted for its strategic importance, with potential price impacts from export controls and evolving trade relations [10][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current period (December 1 - 7, 2025), most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors declined, with an overall change range of -6 BP to 2 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The issuance amount of enterprise bonds increased, while that of other varieties decreased. The net financing of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with the net financing of enterprise bonds and commercial paper increasing, and that of other varieties decreasing. The net financing of enterprise bonds was negative, while that of other varieties was positive [2][13][60]. - In the secondary market, the trading amount of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The trading amounts of private placement notes and commercial paper increased, while those of other varieties decreased. The yields of credit bonds all increased in the current period. The credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds were differentiated, generally showing a widening at the short end and a narrowing at the medium - and long - ends [2][17][60]. - From the perspective of absolute returns, insufficient supply and relatively strong allocation demand will drive the credit bond market to continue its recovery. Although fluctuations and adjustments are inevitable under the influence of multiple factors, the conditions for a full - scale bear market in the credit bond market are still insufficient. In the long run, yields are still in a downward channel, and the strategy of increasing positions during adjustments is still feasible. Currently, the cost - effectiveness of most varieties for allocation has decreased, and caution is needed when chasing high prices. The coupon strategy can be moderately optimistic in the current allocation thinking, and the trading thinking should remain optimistic. When selecting bonds, the focus should be on the trend of interest - rate bonds while paying attention to the coupon value of individual bonds. From the perspective of relative returns, although the compression space of credit spreads at all tenors is insufficient at present, the probability of a one - sided correction in the short term is also low. Therefore, investors can still achieve the coupon strategy through credit - quality downgrading and extending the duration according to their own capital characteristics, but they need to pay attention to the rhythm during allocation [2][60]. - The central and local governments have been continuously optimizing real estate policies. The support policies have been continuously strengthened, actively releasing rigid and improving housing demand, which has played a positive role in promoting the stabilization of the real estate market. Although the real estate market is still in the transition period between the old and new models, with the effectiveness of various policies to stabilize the property market, the real estate market is moving towards stabilization. In the future, policies to promote the high - quality development of the real estate market are expected. For real estate bonds, the sales recovery process will have a significant impact on bond valuations. As the market shows signs of stabilization, funds with higher risk appetite can consider early layout, especially focusing on enterprises with outstanding performance in new financing and sales recovery. The focus of allocation should still be on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and excellent performance, as well as high - quality private - enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. Investors can extend the duration to increase returns and also appropriately play the trading opportunities brought by the valuation repair of bonds of undervalued real - estate enterprises [3][61]. - For urban investment bonds, under the principle of coordinating development and security, the probability of default of urban investment bonds is very low, and they can still be a key allocation variety of credit bonds. Under the strict supervision of promoting the clearance of local financing platforms in an orderly and effective manner, the reform and transformation of financing platforms are accelerating. Attention should be paid to the reform and transformation opportunities of "entity - type" financing platforms. From the perspective of coupon income, investors can be appropriately active. The allocation strategy can give priority to credit - quality downgrading at the medium - and short - ends, and the trading strategy can still choose to extend the duration of medium - and high - grade bonds [4][61][62]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Situation 3.1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - In the current period (December 1 - 7, 2025), a total of 291 credit bonds, including enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes, were issued, with an issuance amount of 232.914 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 32.35%. The net financing of credit bonds was 54.159 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 6.974 billion yuan [13]. - By variety, 1 enterprise bond was issued, with an issuance amount of 1 billion yuan and a net financing of - 3.292 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 3.854 billion yuan. 110 corporate bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 75.694 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 6.20%, and a net financing of 17.749 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 8.128 billion yuan. 78 medium - term notes were issued, with an issuance amount of 61.583 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 62.30%, and a net financing of 14.611 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 81.694 billion yuan. 80 commercial papers were issued, with an issuance amount of 82.462 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88%, and a net financing of 24.686 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23.237 billion yuan. 22 private placement notes were issued, with an issuance amount of 12.175 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 24.73%, and a net financing of 405 million yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 709 million yuan [13]. 3.1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - Most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors declined, with an overall change range of -6 BP to 2 BP. By tenor, the interest rate of 1 - year varieties changed from -6 BP to 1 BP, that of 3 - year varieties changed from -5 BP to 2 BP, that of 5 - year varieties changed from -5 BP to 0 BP, and that of 7 - year varieties changed from -3 BP to 0 BP. By rating, the interest rate of key AAA - rated and AAA - rated varieties changed from -2 BP to 2 BP, that of AA + - rated varieties changed from -1 BP to 0 BP, that of AA - rated varieties changed from -3 BP to -2 BP, and that of AA - - rated varieties changed from -6 BP to -3 BP [15]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation 3.2.1 Market Trading Volume - In the current period (December 1 - 7, 2025), the total trading amount of credit bonds was 817.532 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 7.60%. The trading amounts of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes were 17.007 billion yuan, 317.964 billion yuan, 281.89 billion yuan, 144.869 billion yuan, and 55.802 billion yuan respectively. The trading amount of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The trading amounts of private placement notes and commercial paper increased, while those of other varieties decreased [17]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1 - year and 5 - year notes widened, while those of 3 - year and 7 - year notes narrowed [20]. - For enterprise bonds, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. Specifically, the 1 - year credit spread widened; among the 3 - year bonds, the credit spread of AA + - rated varieties widened, while those of other varieties narrowed; among the 5 - year bonds, the credit spreads of AAA - rated and AA - - rated varieties narrowed, while those of AA + - rated and AA - rated varieties widened; the 7 - year credit spread narrowed [27]. - For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. Specifically, the 1 - year credit spread widened; among the 3 - year bonds, the credit spread of AA - - rated varieties widened, while those of other varieties narrowed; among the 5 - year bonds, the credit spread of AA + - rated varieties widened, while those of other varieties narrowed; the 7 - year credit spread narrowed [36]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes: In terms of term spreads, the 3Y - 1Y spread narrowed by 0.26 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 2.87 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread widened by 1.94 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 32.1% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 23.6% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 29.0% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year medium - and short - term notes narrowed by 2.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP. Currently, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 0.0% quantile, the (AA)-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 3.7% quantile, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread is at a low level, at the 1.0% quantile [44]. - For AA + enterprise bonds: In terms of term spreads, the 3Y - 1Y spread widened by 2.92 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 1.28 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 2.23 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 31.7% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 26.5% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 28.2% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year enterprise bonds narrowed by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread remained the same as the previous period, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread widened by 2.00 BP. Currently, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 0.7% quantile, the (AA)-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 6.1% quantile, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 1.5% quantile [50]. - For AA + urban investment bonds: In terms of term spreads, the 3Y - 1Y spread narrowed by 0.99 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 1.12 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 0.73 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 36.2% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 24.4% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 30.1% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year urban investment bonds widened by 1.99 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 0.99 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 0.01 BP. Currently, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 10.1% quantile, the (AA)-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 5.4% quantile, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 0.8% quantile [53]. 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - According to iFinD statistics, there were no company rating (including outlook) adjustments in the current period (December 1 - 7, 2025) [58]. 3.3.2 Default and Extended - Maturity Bond Statistics - In terms of bond defaults, according to iFinD statistics, there were no credit bond defaults in the current period (December 1 - 7, 2025). - In terms of bond extensions, according to iFinD statistics, there were no credit bond extensions in the current period (December 1 - 7, 2025) [59]. 3.4 Investment Views - The views are consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, including the analysis of the primary and secondary markets of credit bonds, the judgment of the credit bond market from the perspectives of absolute and relative returns, the analysis of the real estate market and real estate bonds, and the analysis of urban investment bonds [60][61][62].

行 行业周报 宏观因素影响当前价格，后续关注美联储议息会议 ——金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 年 12 月 9 日 钢铁 有色金属 证券分析师 投资要点： 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com 铝：当前铝价的向上驱动力更多来自宏观流动性宽松预期，宏观利好逐步被 市场消化后，短期铝价上涨动力或减弱。 黄金：在重要数据公布前，金价或维持震荡运行，目前市场普遍预期 12 月将 降息 25 个基点，若后续劳动力市场数据和美联储利率决议超出市场预期，或 引发金价波动。 锂：目前碳酸锂行业呈现阶段性供需偏紧状态，库存维持去化但后续或去库 放缓，短期价格或高位震荡。 稀土：分离厂虽有减产预期，但下游需求没有明显改善，短期稀土价格或震荡 运行，后续关注下游实际需求情况。 重点品种推荐 | 洛阳钼业 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 中金黄金 | 增持 | | 华友钴业 | 增持 | | 紫金矿业 | 增持 | | 中国铝业 | 增持 | 近三月行业指数走势图 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% ...

Fund Research - The market saw a majority of equity indices rise, with the largest increase in the ChiNext Index, which rose by 1.86% during the week from December 1 to December 5, 2025 [2] - Public funds experienced significant inflows, with the first ETF tracking the CSI 300 Quality Index closing its fundraising, and Moer Thread emerging as the biggest winner in the offline allocation results [2] - Various equity fund types performed well, with equity funds averaging a rise of 0.93% and a positive return ratio of 76.27% [3] Company Research: Hongsoft Technology (688088) - Hongsoft Technology specializes in AI visual algorithms, providing algorithm licensing and system solutions, with mobile intelligent terminal visual solutions being the main revenue source [5][6] - The company reported a net profit of 142 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 60.51% [6] - The global smartphone shipment reached 923 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, with an AI smartphone penetration rate expected to reach 34% [6] - The smart glasses market saw a shipment of 4.065 million units in the first half of 2025, a 64.2% increase year-on-year, with expectations for the market to exceed 40 million units by 2029 [6] - The automotive sector showed a 12.4% year-on-year increase in sales, with the domestic passenger car market's DMS function penetration rate reaching a historical high of 26.2% in September 2025 [6] - The company’s PSAI product has penetrated multiple e-commerce platforms, serving hundreds of thousands of small businesses and over 300 major apparel brands [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.63 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 1.18 yuan, with a 2025 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 76.07, which is below the average valuation of comparable companies [7] Industry Research: Light Industry Manufacturing & Textile Apparel - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 0.58 percentage points from December 1 to December 5, 2025, while the textile and apparel sector underperformed by 2.88 percentage points [8][10] - Recent price increases in packaging paper have been noted, with companies like Nine Dragons and others announcing price hikes of 50 yuan per ton [10] - The government is actively engaging in trade discussions with the U.S., which may positively impact export chain companies [10] - The domestic real estate market is under pressure, but recent policies to enhance home purchase subsidies may improve the situation in the medium term [10]

证 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/12/08） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.08） 宏观及策略研究 海内外经济前瞻指标走弱——宏观经济周报 固定收益研究 重要会议前或以震荡为主——利率债 12 月投资策略展望 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/12/08） 宏观及策略研究 海内外经济前瞻指标走弱——宏观经济周报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、外围环境而言 美国方面，经济前瞻指标延续分化。11 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 不及预期，连续第九个月位于荣枯线下方，显示 制造业仍未摆脱收缩趋势。分项指标也不甚乐观，新订单指数环比降幅创下半年以来最大，需求仍显乏力 ...

晨会纪要（2025/12/05） 编辑人 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/12/05） 宏观及策略研究 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.05） 宏观及策略研究 国内外重要会议临近，市场进入等待阶段——A 股市场投资策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 国内外重要会议临近，市场进入等待阶段——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（11 月 28 日-12 月 4 日），重要指数多数收涨；其中，上证综指微幅收涨 0.01%，创业板指收 涨 1.19%；风格层面，沪深 300 收涨 0.69%，中证 500 收涨 0.89%。成交量方面有所缩量，两市统计区间内 成交 8.27 万亿元，日均成交额降至 1. ...

Market Review - In the past five trading days (November 28 to December 4), major indices mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.01% and the ChiNext Index up by 1.19%. The CSI 300 rose by 0.69% and the CSI 500 increased by 0.89% [3][9][23]. Policy Insights - On December 3, the Deputy Director of the Central Financial Office emphasized the necessity of accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse to promote high-quality development. Key areas include improving the central bank system, enhancing capital market stability, and optimizing financial institutions and infrastructure [28]. Investment Strategy - The A-share market is entering a phase of oscillation and waiting. The performance of the market will depend on the catalysts from various sectors during this earnings vacuum period. With important meetings approaching, the market is anticipating incremental policy changes, which could lead to a rebound if they exceed expectations. Investors are advised to remain patient and focus on policy and technology themes for future positioning [29]. Sector Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in several sectors: 1. TMT sector and robotics, driven by the expansion of AI capital from domestic and international cloud vendors and the acceleration of domestic computing power replacement [29]. 2. Power equipment and non-ferrous metals, benefiting from high global demand for energy storage and the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries [29]. 3. Social services and resource products, which may present policy-driven opportunities amid structural adjustments and "anti-involution" initiatives [29]. 4. The banking sector is also highlighted as a potential area for allocation due to the low interest rate environment and the return of public fund holdings to performance benchmarks [29].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The computer industry index increased by 18.54% from January 1, 2025, to November 28, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.50 percentage points [3][17] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the computer industry generated revenue of 935.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.14%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.14 billion yuan, up 31.95% year-on-year [3][24] - The third quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 324.49 billion yuan, a 4.75% year-on-year growth, with net profit increasing by 23.30% to 10.26 billion yuan [3][24] Group 2: AI Computing Power - AI computing power demand is driving growth in the global data center market, which is expected to reach 652.01 billion dollars by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 8.53% from 2018 [35] - China's data center market is projected to grow from 68.01 billion yuan in 2018 to 261.33 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 25.15% [35] - The introduction of supernode technology is expected to break through computing power bottlenecks, enhancing efficiency and scalability in AI applications [62][66] Group 3: AI Models - Global large model iterations are accelerating, with domestic manufacturers focusing on open-source models to narrow the gap with overseas closed-source models [69] - Domestic open-source models are gaining traction, with eight out of the top ten in the global open-source model intelligence index being Chinese [73][76] - The performance gap between domestic open-source models and international top-tier closed-source models is narrowing, with domestic models offering better cost-performance ratios [76] Group 4: AI Applications - AI applications are transitioning towards intelligent agents, with major internet companies accelerating the commercialization of C-end applications [82] - Alibaba's Qwen App, based on open-source models, aims to become a comprehensive AI life portal, achieving over 10 million downloads shortly after launch [83] - The development of AI agents is expected to enhance user engagement and create a complete AI business ecosystem [83] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on opportunities in AI applications and self-control developments for 2026, with a positive outlook on the AI computing power sector [84][85] - Continuous growth in capital expenditure from major cloud computing firms supports the high prosperity of the AI computing power industry [84] - The competition in the global large model field is intensifying, which is likely to drive technological innovation and accelerate application deployment [84]

Industry Overview - The report highlights the continuous iteration of domestic open-source large models, reshaping the AI competitive landscape, with DeepSeek V3.2 achieving inference capabilities comparable to GPT-5 [1][20][21] - The establishment of a "Space Data Center" in Beijing, with the first computational test satellite "Chengguang No. 1" set to launch, is noted as a significant development in AI computing infrastructure [2][22] Industry Data - In October 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the computer industry increased by 1.0% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year [5][23] - From January to October 2025, the software industry generated a total revenue of 125,104.00 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.2%, with total profits amounting to 15,721.00 billion yuan, up by 7.7% [5][28] - Software exports reached 51.09 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [5][28] - The cumulative production of electronic computers from January to October 2025 was 28,750.20 million units, a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, while the notebook computer export volume in October was 10.29 million units, down by 17.9% [5][24] Company Announcements - Pingao Co., Ltd. announced an investment framework agreement to invest 4 billion yuan in Jiangyuan Technology, acquiring a 15.4182% stake, focusing on AI computing hardware [7][38] - Jiahua Technology is planning a major asset restructuring, intending to acquire a controlling stake in Shudun Information Technology [7][42] Market Review - The report notes a decline of 5.26% in the Shenwan Computer Industry Index from November 1 to November 30, 2025, with all sub-sectors experiencing downturns [9][43] - As of November 28, 2025, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Shenwan Computer Industry was 209.42 times, with a valuation premium of 1477.89% relative to the CSI 300 [9][45] Monthly Strategy - The report emphasizes the ongoing iteration of AI large models by leading domestic manufacturers, which is expected to accelerate technological innovation and application deployment [11][50] - Domestic open-source models like DeepSeek, Tongyi Qianwen, and Kimi are narrowing the performance gap with top international closed-source models, potentially gaining a competitive edge due to better cost-performance ratios [11][50] - The report suggests a focus on AI application sectors driven by rapid technological implementation and demand release, recommending attention to leading companies with strong AI technology deployment capabilities [11][50]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative finance[1][2][3]