Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - In the first seven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 1,358.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the expenditure was 1,607.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [2][3] - The income from government funds decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, while the expenditure increased by 31.7% [2][3] Public Finance Income - The public finance income turned from decline to growth, with personal income tax growth expanding to 8.8%, driven by structural changes and contributions from high-income groups [3] - The overall completion of the national general public budget revenue for the year reached 61.8%, lower than the average of the past five years [3] Public Finance Expenditure - Public finance expenditure maintained a year-on-year growth rate of 6.8%, with social security and employment expenditures growing by 9.8% [4] - The completion of the national general public budget expenditure for the year reached 54.1%, also lower than the average of the past five years [4] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund income decreased by 0.7%, while expenditure increased by 31.7%, mainly due to the acceleration of special bonds and local special bonds [5] - The broad fiscal expenditure (public finance expenditure + government fund expenditure) grew by 9.3% year-on-year [5] Financial Engineering Research - All major indices in the A-share market rose, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 7.98% [6] - As of August 19, the margin trading balance reached 2,124.28 billion yuan, an increase of 96.33 billion yuan from the previous week [6][7] Industry Research - The first World Humanoid Robot Games concluded successfully, highlighting the progress in the humanoid robot industry [9][11] - In July, forklift sales reached 118,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [9] - The machinery equipment industry outperformed the broader market, with a 3.45% increase in the industry index [10]

Revenue Analysis - In the first seven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 135,839 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%[3] - Tax revenue showed a narrowing decline, with individual income tax increasing by 8.8%, significantly higher than the overall tax growth rate[3] - Non-tax revenue growth slowed down compared to the previous months, indicating challenges in asset management by local governments[3] Expenditure Analysis - Public fiscal expenditure for the same period was CNY 160,737 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[4] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 9.8%, highlighting a focus on livelihood over infrastructure[4] - Infrastructure spending continued to decline, with negative growth in urban and rural community investments[4] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue decreased by 0.7%, while expenditures surged by 31.7%, primarily due to accelerated disbursement of special bonds[5] - The overall broad fiscal expenditure (public fiscal expenditure + government fund expenditure) increased by 9.3% year-on-year[5] Fiscal Progress - By July 2025, the national general public budget revenue completion rate was 61.8%, below the five-year average of 63.5%[3] - Public fiscal expenditure completion rate stood at 54.1%, also lower than the five-year average of 54.7%[4] Risk Factors - Economic environment changes could significantly impact tax revenue bases, while unexpected policy changes may alter fiscal expenditure patterns[6]

Revenue Insights - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 135,839 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%[2] - The national general public budget expenditure was CNY 160,737 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[2] - Individual income tax revenue growth expanded to 8.8%, significantly higher than the overall tax revenue growth rate[2] Fund Budget Analysis - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, while expenditure surged by 31.7%[4] - The increase in fund expenditure is primarily due to the accelerated implementation of special national bonds and local special bonds[4] - The overall fiscal expenditure (public finance + government fund expenditure) grew by 9.3% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month[4] Expenditure Trends - Public finance expenditure growth remained stable, with a focus on social welfare, which saw a 6.8% increase, particularly in social security and employment sectors, which grew by 9.8%[3] - Infrastructure spending continued to show negative growth, with specific sectors like urban community and transportation also experiencing declines[3] - Debt interest payments increased by 6.4%, indicating a rising trend in this area[3] Fiscal Performance Metrics - By the end of July 2025, the completion rate of the national general public budget revenue was 61.8%, below the five-year average of 63.5%[2] - The completion rate for public finance expenditure was 54.1%, also lower than the five-year average of 54.7%[3]

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for July 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 6.0% and previous value of 6.8% [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.6% and previous value of 4.8% [4] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is at 1.6%, also below expectations [4] Company Research: Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. (603799) - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 37.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% [15] - Nickel product shipments increased significantly, with nickel product output reaching 139,400 tons, a year-on-year growth of 83.91% [16] - The company has made significant progress in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a sales net profit margin of 9.33%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points year-on-year [16] Industry Research: Metal Industry - Frequent bidding by major magnetic material manufacturers is expected to boost the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide [10] - The steel industry is facing supply constraints due to tightened production policies, but demand may be impacted by construction site shutdowns [11] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate due to insufficient fundamental support, with potential demand driven by seasonal inventory accumulation [11] - The rare earth market is seeing improved inquiry conditions, with light rare earth prices expected to be supported in the short term [12]

Overall Summary - **Report Period**: August 11 - August 17, 2025 [1][11] - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The issuance guidance rates from the Dealer Association showed a differentiated trend, with high - grade rates rising and medium - low - grade rates falling. Credit bond issuance volume decreased, and net financing turned negative. Secondary - market trading volume declined, yields rose, and credit spreads showed mixed trends. Currently, the allocation cost - effectiveness is low. In the long run, yields are in a downward channel, but due to high prices, the allocation pace can be slowed. For relative returns, credit - sinking and duration - stretching are not cost - effective, and high - grade short - term bonds can be considered for defense [1][60] 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - Total credit bonds issued 350 with an amount of 260.56 billion yuan, a 29.04% decrease from the previous period. Net financing was - 12.116 billion yuan, a decrease of 203.684 billion yuan [11] - Enterprise bonds had zero issuance with a net financing of - 16.575 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.059 billion yuan [11] - Corporate bonds issued 126 with an amount of 96.654 billion yuan, an 8.73% increase; net financing was 43.48 billion yuan, an increase of 10.703 billion yuan [11] - Medium - term notes issued 116 with an amount of 92.57 billion yuan, a 43.70% decrease; net financing was 20.422 billion yuan, a decrease of 92.531 billion yuan [11] - Short - term financing bills issued 91 with an amount of 61.219 billion yuan, a 39.28% decrease; net financing was - 52.858 billion yuan, a decrease of 104.478 billion yuan [11] - Private placement notes issued 17 with an amount of 9.613 billion yuan, a 22.10% decrease; net financing was - 6.585 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.319 billion yuan [11] 1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guidance rates from the Dealer Association showed a high - grade up and medium - low - grade down trend, with a change range of - 3 BP to 2 BP [1][15] - For 1 - year terms, the rate change was between - 1 BP and 2 BP; for 3 - year terms, between - 2 BP and 2 BP; for 5 - year terms, between - 3 BP and 2 BP; for 7 - year terms, between - 3 BP and 2 BP [15] - For key AAA and AAA grades, the rate change was between 0 BP and 2 BP; for AA + grade, between - 1 BP and 1 BP; for AA grade, between - 3 BP and - 1 BP; for AA - grade, between - 3 BP and - 2 BP [15] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Market Trading Volume - Total credit - bond trading volume was 775.373 billion yuan, a 7.29% decrease from the previous period [19] - Enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes' trading volumes decreased, while short - term financing bills and private placement notes' trading volumes increased [1][19] 2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, most credit spreads narrowed, especially for 5 - year terms, except for the 3 - year AAA - grade spread which widened [22][25] - For enterprise bonds, most credit spreads narrowed, especially for 5 - year terms, except for the 3 - year AA + grade which remained unchanged [29] - For urban investment bonds, credit spreads showed a differentiated trend. 1 - year and 5 - year spreads generally narrowed, while 3 - year and 7 - year spreads generally widened [1][39] 2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes, 3Y - 1Y, 5Y - 3Y, and 7Y - 3Y term spreads widened. Rating spreads for 3 - year medium - and short - term notes generally narrowed [47] - For AA + enterprise bonds, 3Y - 1Y and 7Y - 3Y term spreads widened, 5Y - 3Y narrowed. Rating spreads for 3 - year enterprise bonds had mixed trends [52] - For AA + urban investment bonds, 3Y - 1Y and 7Y - 3Y term spreads widened, 5Y - 3Y narrowed. Rating spreads for 3 - year urban investment bonds had mixed trends [53] 3. Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment - No company rating (including outlook) adjustments during the period [58] 3.2 Default and Extension Bonds - No credit - bond defaults or extensions during the period [59] 4. Investment Views Credit Bonds - From an absolute - return perspective, supply shortages and strong allocation demand support credit bonds. Although fluctuations are inevitable, yields are in a downward channel in the long run. Due to high prices, the allocation pace can be slowed, and bonds can be added during adjustments. Pay attention to interest - rate bond trends and coupon values. Consider bonds of relevant entities underperforming in the Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF [1][60] - From a relative - return perspective, since rating spreads are at historical lows, credit - sinking and duration - stretching are not cost - effective. High - grade short - term bonds can be used for defense [1][60] Real Estate Bonds - With the real - estate market gradually stabilizing, high - risk - appetite funds can consider early layout, focusing on the balance between risk and return. Allocate to central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and high - quality private - enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. Long - term allocation can increase returns, and trading opportunities from undervalued real - estate bonds can be explored [2][62] Urban Investment Bonds - In the context of stable growth and prevention of systemic risks, the probability of urban investment bond defaults is low. They can still be a key allocation for credit bonds. The short - term credit risk is low, and the current strategy can be positive. However, during the process of local financing platform clearance and transformation, some urban investment bonds may face valuation fluctuations. Future opportunities in the reform and transformation of "entity - type" financing platforms can be monitored [2][62]

Economic Data Overview - In July 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.7% year-on-year, below the expected 6.0% and previous value of 6.8%[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, compared to an expected 4.6% and a prior value of 4.8%[1] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6%, lower than the expected 2.7% and previous 2.8%[1] Industrial Production Insights - The industrial production growth rate slowed due to "anti-involution" and extreme weather, aligning with seasonal patterns[2] - The electrical machinery and electronic equipment sectors maintained double-digit growth despite a decline, while the automotive sector saw significant downturns[2] - Service sector production index showed resilience with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8%, slightly down from June[2] Consumer Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales declined due to demand front-loading and reduced subsidy impacts, particularly in automotive consumption[3] - Restaurant consumption saw a slight recovery, but overall levels remained low, while travel-related services benefited from summer travel[3] - Future consumption growth is expected to stabilize unless stronger supportive policies are introduced[3] Investment Challenges - Fixed asset investment growth has declined for four consecutive months, with manufacturing investment dropping by 5.4 percentage points to -0.3% year-on-year[4] - Infrastructure investment growth fell by 7.3 percentage points to -2.0% year-on-year, affected by high base effects and adverse weather[4] - Despite current challenges, infrastructure investment is anticipated to rebound in the third quarter with accelerated issuance of special bonds[4] Real Estate Sector Analysis - Real estate investment saw an expanded year-on-year decline of 4.1 percentage points to -17.0%, with both construction and completion phases experiencing downturns[5] - Sales continue to be constrained by demand limitations, despite policy relaxations in major cities[5] - The sector remains in a bottoming phase, with future recovery dependent on effective supply-side policies[5]

Group 1: Fund Market Overview - The equity market indices continued to rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 8.58% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising over 5% [2] - Over 90% of actively managed equity funds achieved positive returns this year, and the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" is gradually being implemented [2] - The average return of equity funds was 3.77%, while quantitative funds averaged a 2.94% increase, with 93.88% of them showing positive returns [2] Group 2: ETF Market Overview - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 5.76 billion yuan, with significant outflows from stock ETFs, particularly those related to the ChiNext and Sci-Tech boards [3] - The average daily trading volume in the ETF market reached 388.22 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 9.41% [3] - Major inflows were seen in thematic ETFs such as the SSE 50 and convertible bond ETFs, while the semiconductor index faced significant outflows [3] Group 3: Industry Research on Electric Two-Wheelers - In July, domestic sales of electric two-wheelers grew by 24.4%, with older models being cleared out and new models seeing price increases [5] - The implementation of the "New National Standard" for electric two-wheelers on September 1 is expected to drive high-quality development in the industry [6] - The packaging paper sector is anticipated to improve as leading companies continue to issue price increases, benefiting overall profitability in the paper industry [6] Group 4: Company Announcements - Bailong Oriental reported a 67.53% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year [6] - Baoxiniang reported a 42.66% year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [6] Group 5: Market Performance - From August 11 to August 15, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 0.81 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector lagged by 3.75 percentage points [6]

Macroeconomic Research - The report highlights that the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US has increased following disappointing non-farm payroll data and lower-than-expected CPI growth, although there are contradictions in the inflation data [2] - Domestic economic indicators show that both production and demand faced pressure in July, with investment decline being the most significant drag on domestic demand [3] - The report notes that while CPI and PPI growth remains low year-on-year, there has been a slight improvement in month-on-month growth due to factors such as holiday travel and international commodity price changes [3] Fixed Income Research - The bond market has shown weak performance, with the yield curve steepening, influenced by factors such as the pause in US-China tariff implementation and rising risk appetite in the equity market [7] - The report indicates that the issuance of government bonds has increased, with a total issuance of 49 bonds amounting to 783.2 billion yuan during the reporting period [6] - The liquidity remains loose, with the central bank's net absorption exceeding 500 billion yuan, and the report anticipates limited disturbances to the bond market in the near term [8] Industry Research - The medical device sector is gaining attention, with a focus on opportunities within the related industrial chain, driven by recent policy adjustments in the national medical insurance and drug lists [9] - The report mentions several companies making significant progress, such as Rongchang Bio achieving primary research endpoints in clinical trials and Fuhong Hanlin's drug registration application being accepted [10] - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has been positive, with the industry index showing a 1.97% increase during the reporting week, outperforming other sub-sectors [10]

Market Overview - In the past five trading days (August 8 to August 14), major indices mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.74% and the ChiNext Index rising by 5.41% [2] - The trading volume significantly increased, with a total of 9.85 trillion yuan traded, averaging 1.97 trillion yuan per day, which is an increase of 319.27 billion yuan compared to the previous five-day average [2] - Among the industries, telecommunications, electronics, and power equipment sectors saw the highest gains, while banking, textiles, and defense industries experienced the largest declines [2] Data Insights - In July 2025, social financing increased by 386.4 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bond financing being a major support factor [2] - July saw a negative growth of 50 billion yuan in RMB loans, marking the first negative growth since August 2005, with both corporate and household sectors showing marginal weakness [2] - M1 and M2 money supply growth rates slightly increased year-on-year, driven by low base effects and active deposits in the equity market [2] Policy Developments - On August 12, the Ministry of Finance and other departments issued implementation plans for personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan subsidies, aimed at reducing credit costs in the consumption sector [3] - The combination of targeted interest rate cuts and improvements in social security systems is expected to enhance consumer willingness and capacity [3] Investment Strategy - In the short term, the upcoming mid-year performance reports may cause some market fluctuations, but the overall market remains driven by liquidity increments [4] - External trade risks have eased, and expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may boost external liquidity and risk appetite, positively impacting the A-share liquidity environment [4] - Domestic liquidity is showing a relatively mild self-reinforcing characteristic, and policies emphasizing the stabilization of the capital market are conducive to the continuation of liquidity increments [4] Industry Focus - Investment opportunities can be found in the TMT sector (electronics, telecommunications, computing) and the pharmaceutical industry, driven by AI trends and innovation [4] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from the stabilization of the capital market [4] - Opportunities in certain resource products are anticipated due to capacity management advancements [4]

Financial Engineering Research - The A-share market indices all rose last week, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 2.82% and the Shanghai 50 Index the smallest at 0.58% [2] - As of August 12, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20,279.49 billion yuan, an increase of 339.12 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The average number of investors participating in margin trading increased by 7.49% to 455,739 [2] Industry Research: Low Altitude Economy - The low altitude economy concept was introduced in 2010 and has gained significant traction, with the State Council including it in national planning for the first time in 2021 [5] - The market size of China's low altitude economy is projected to reach 970.25 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 91.77%, and is expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 [8] - Tianjin has seen several phase construction achievements in the low altitude economy, with a focus on applications in agriculture, logistics, and inspection [8] Industry Research: Machinery Equipment - The machinery equipment sector outperformed the broader market, with a 3.84% increase in the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index from August 6 to August 12, 2025 [10] - Excavator sales in July reached 17,138 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, indicating a strong recovery in the market [11] - The upcoming World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing is expected to catalyze investment opportunities in the humanoid robotics sector [12]