Fixed Income Research - The new bond tax regulation, effective from August 8, 2025, reinstates VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, while maintaining VAT exemption for bonds issued before this date until maturity [2][3] - The tax policy change reduces the tax advantages previously enjoyed by government and financial bonds, particularly affecting public funds, asset management products, and proprietary trading departments differently based on their tax rates [3][4] - The new regulation is expected to widen the yield spread between new and old bonds by approximately 4-12 basis points, influencing investor behavior towards older bonds [4][5] - The anticipated annual tax revenue increase from the new bond tax regulation is estimated to be in the hundreds of millions, which is relatively limited compared to the total debt interest expenditure [5] Fund Research - In July, the market saw an increase in valuations across major indices, with the CSI 500 showing significant growth in historical valuation percentiles [7] - A total of 92 new funds were launched in July, with a total issuance scale of 703.43 billion, indicating a strong interest in both active equity and index funds [7][8] - Growth style funds outperformed value style funds, with mid-cap growth funds showing a notable increase of 8.23% [8] - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 676.83 billion, with significant interest in bond ETFs, while stock ETFs faced outflows [9][10] Industry Research - The retail sales of furniture reached 98.2 billion, growing by 22.9% year-on-year, while clothing and textile retail sales totaled 742.59 billion, with a growth of 3.1% [14] - The introduction of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to boost the entire maternity and childcare industry, particularly benefiting sectors like maternal and infant products [14][15] - The Guangdong Paper Association's initiative to promote "anti-involution" is likely to lead to price increases in packaging paper, benefiting leading companies in the sector [15] - The easing of Sino-US tariff issues may provide support for domestic exports, particularly for companies with a global layout [15]

晨会纪要（2025/08/04） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.08.04） 宏观及策略研究 维稳当下，谋篇布局——2025 年 8 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 把握阶段性修复行情——利率债 8 月投资策略展望 行业研究 恒瑞医药与 GSK 达成大额合作，关注创新产业链——医药生物行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/08/04） 宏观及策略研究 维稳当下，谋篇布局——2025 年 8 月宏观经济月报 周喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、海外经济及政策环境 美国方面，虽然二季度消费和投资分项偏弱，但总体经济仍在进口拖累减弱帮助下表现出韧性，通胀数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to experience a phased recovery, but there is a lack of new catalysts for interest rates to break below the June fluctuation center. Therefore, the recovery space should not be overestimated. It is expected that the bond market will shift to a volatile pattern after the phased recovery in August, and opportunities in long - term varieties can be grasped during the recovery phase [7][79][80]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 July Market Review 1.1 资金价格: 前松后紧 - In July 2025, the funding price showed a pattern of being loose in the first half and tight in the second half. In the first and middle ten - days, the central bank was willing to protect liquidity, and DR007 fluctuated around 1.5%. In the second half, the reverse repurchases over - issued during the tax period matured one after another, and the central bank chose to renew them in a reduced volume, which might intentionally tighten the funding side to cool down the equity market indirectly. DR007 rose rapidly above 1.6% at non - tax and non - end - of - month points. After the open market turned to net investment at the end of the month, the funding price eased to some extent [2][11][16]. 1.2 一级市场：政金债发行规模较高 - In July 2025, the issuance of treasury bonds decreased marginally, while the issuance scale of local bonds and policy - financial bonds increased. In terms of issuance, interest - rate bonds issued a total of 3.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 150 billion yuan month - on - month. Among them, treasury bonds issued 1.2 trillion yuan, less than each month in the second quarter; local bonds issued 1.2 trillion yuan, the highest monthly level in 2025; policy - financial bonds issued 0.8 trillion yuan, the highest monthly issuance in history. In terms of net financing, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 1.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of nearly 200 billion yuan month - on - month [11][18]. 1.3 二级市场：10Y国债收益率站上 1.7% - In the first and middle ten - days of July, the bond market was in a volatile pattern, with multiple factors overlapping but no main line. The bond market mainly focused on exploring variety spreads. In the second half of July, the bond market was under pressure as the Ya'an project started, boosting the total demand expectation, and the "inflation trade" became the main suppressing force in the bond market. The redemption pressure of bond funds and wealth management products also increased. It was not until the Politburo meeting at the end of July revealed the signal of "implementing existing policies" and the July PMI data showed that the fundamentals were still under pressure that the bond market had a slight recovery. As of July 31, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds closed at 1.7%, up 6bp from the end of June [11][3][32]. 基本面展望：压力不容忽视 - The "rush - to - export" effect may be coming to an end, and the year - on - year growth rate of exports may decline in the next 1 - 2 months. Under the promotion of "anti - involution", the growth rates of industrial production and manufacturing investment may slow down. Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate. Consumption data may decline periodically until new growth points emerge after the "trade - in" policy. PPI data may improve, and the year - on - year and month - on - month decline is expected to narrow. After the "inflation trade" sentiment cools down, external and internal demand pressures will return to the spotlight, which is still a favorable environment for the bond market [58][79]. 政策展望:存量政策"落实落细" 3.1 财政政策:政府债供给压力或加大 - In terms of fiscal revenue and expenditure, government - funded expenditures increased significantly in June. In terms of public fiscal revenue, the year - on - year decline in the first half of the year continued, but the revenue structure improved. In terms of public fiscal expenditure, the year - on - year increase in the first half of the year narrowed compared with January - May, and the expenditure rhythm slowed down, but the support for people's livelihood and the technology field did not decrease. In terms of government - funded revenue and expenditure, the revenue growth improved under the drive of a low base, and the expenditure side increased significantly. The Politburo meeting's policy statement on fiscal policy is generally positive for the bond market. In August, the supply pressure of government bonds may increase [62][68][69]. 3.2 货币政策:主要关注公开市场操作 - In June, the total and structure of financial data improved. The Politburo meeting in July continued the tone of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, but removed the expression of "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" compared with April. It is indicated that the central bank still has the intention to protect liquidity, and the necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in August is not strong. Attention should be paid to the central bank's open - market operation dynamics [73][74]. 债市展望 - The bond market is expected to have a phased recovery, but the lack of new catalysts makes it difficult for interest rates to break below the June fluctuation center. It is expected to turn into a volatile pattern after the phased recovery in August, and long - term varieties can be considered during the recovery [79][80].

Group 1: Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - The US economy showed resilience in Q2 2025, with GDP growth increasing by 3.0%, up 3.5 percentage points from Q1, primarily due to inventory investment and a reversal of import drag[12] - The unemployment rate in the US fell unexpectedly, with 147,000 new non-farm jobs added in June, indicating a strong labor market despite some signs of weakness[12] - The European Central Bank maintained its policy rate in July, with most officials agreeing on the current monetary policy's support for the economy, but potential rate cuts remain if tariffs significantly impact the economy[23] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - China's fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in June, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous value, with manufacturing investment declining by 2.7 percentage points to 5.1%[30] - Social retail sales growth fell to 4.8% year-on-year in June, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, influenced by the fading effects of consumption policies and high base effects[33] - The CPI in June rebounded to a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, ending three months of negative growth, while PPI continued to decline, indicating ongoing price pressures in the industrial sector[38] Group 3: Domestic Policy Environment - The Central Political Bureau emphasized stability, continuity, and flexibility in future policies, with a focus on structural monetary policies to support small and medium enterprises and boost consumption[51] - Fiscal policy is expected to be implemented with precision, with a projected fiscal space of over 6 trillion yuan for the second half of the year, supporting key areas like infrastructure[56] - The risk of geopolitical tensions and unexpected economic changes poses significant challenges to domestic economic stability and policy effectiveness[57]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the CSI 300 index [5][61]. Core Insights - Recent collaboration between Heng Rui Medicine and GSK is expected to boost sentiment in the innovative drug sector, highlighting investment opportunities in pipeline realization, performance growth, and business collaborations [5][60]. - The 11th batch of centralized procurement is underway, suggesting a focus on pharmaceutical and medical device sectors that may benefit from optimized procurement rules [5][60]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring performance reversals in related sectors, particularly in CXO companies, which have shown strong performance amid improving overseas demand and recovering orders [5][60]. Industry News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council issued a plan for the implementation of a childcare subsidy system, which may impact the healthcare sector positively [14]. - The National Healthcare Security Administration released guidelines for the immediate settlement of basic medical insurance funds, aiming to enhance efficiency in fund disbursement [14]. Company Announcements - Heng Rui Medicine signed a collaboration and licensing agreement with GSK, which includes a $500 million upfront payment and potential milestone payments totaling approximately $12 billion for successful project developments [28]. - WuXi AppTec reported a 20.64% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 101.92% [29]. - CSPC Pharmaceutical announced an exclusive licensing agreement with Madrigal for the development of SYH2086, with potential total payments of up to $2.075 billion [30]. - Tigermed announced the acquisition of a stake in Japan's MICRON for approximately ¥484 million (about 23.48 million RMB) [31]. Market Review - For the week of July 25 to July 31, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.90%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.64%. In contrast, the pharmaceutical and biological sector rose by 2.74%, with most sub-sectors showing positive performance [52]. - As of July 31, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the pharmaceutical and biological industry was 30.83, with a valuation premium of 161% compared to the CSI 300 index [57].

Macro and Strategy Research - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, influenced by seasonal factors and extreme weather [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 50.1%, still above the threshold, with construction and service sectors experiencing declines due to adverse weather conditions [4] - The comprehensive PMI output index decreased to 50.2%, reflecting a slowdown in expansion [4] Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the need for detailed implementation of macroeconomic policies to stabilize market expectations and address risks [6][7] - The meeting highlighted the need for continuous fiscal and monetary policy support, including accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency [7][8] - Consumer spending is to be boosted through measures that enhance livelihood security, while investment will focus on high-quality construction projects [8][9] Industry Research: Dairy Industry in Tianjin - Tianjin is developing a billion-level dairy industry, with the total output value exceeding 11.68 billion yuan in 2023, and the city is a leader in DHI measurement technology for dairy cows [14][17] - The dairy industry is facing challenges, with a projected decrease in national dairy cow inventory by over 500,000 heads in 2024, leading to increased losses for smaller farms [14][18] - The market for flavored milk is growing, with the leading company, Haihe Dairy, achieving a revenue of 1.098 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.9% [17][18]

Market Overview - The important indices mostly declined in the recent trading days from July 25 to July 31, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.90% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.73% [4] - The trading volume continued to increase, with a total of 9.11 trillion yuan and an average daily trading volume of 1.82 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 479.50 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [10] Policy and Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, aligning with market expectations. The statements regarding employment and inflation remained consistent with previous meetings, indicating a cautious approach towards inflation risks [26] - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need to consolidate the positive momentum in the capital market, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) identified stabilizing the market as a primary task [27] Investment Strategy - The market is currently undergoing a consolidation phase, but there are mid-term upward opportunities due to policy support aimed at enhancing the attractiveness of the capital market and increasing capital inflows [27] - Investment opportunities are identified in the following sectors: 1. TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), biopharmaceuticals, and national defense industries, driven by AI and overseas expansion [27] 2. Financial sector opportunities in line with the goal of stabilizing the capital market [27] 3. Reallocation opportunities in power equipment and certain resource sectors due to capacity governance [27] Industry Performance - In the recent trading period, the majority of industries saw declines, with notable gains in the communication, biopharmaceutical, and electronics sectors, while coal, non-ferrous metals, and construction decoration sectors experienced significant declines [21][24]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its role in achieving the 2035 long-term goals, highlighting that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for foundational work and significant breakthroughs [1][2] - The meeting acknowledged the positive economic performance in the first half of the year and indicated that macroeconomic policies will continue to be effective and timely, focusing on stabilizing market expectations and addressing risks [2][3] - Consumption policies will focus on enhancing livelihood security and expanding consumer demand, with measures such as increasing pensions and implementing childcare subsidies to boost consumer capacity [3][5] Group 2 - Investment strategies will shift towards "high-quality promotion" of key projects, moving from merely increasing efforts to enhancing quality and efficiency in construction [3][5] - The report highlights the ongoing emphasis on new productive forces in the technology sector, with a shift from quantity to quality in developing competitive industries [5] - In the real estate sector, the focus will be on urban renewal and improving existing stock rather than large-scale expansion, indicating a stabilization in real estate investment [5]

Manufacturing Sector Insights - July manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the sector[2] - Production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while new orders index dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, returning to the contraction zone[2] - New export orders declined by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1%, influenced by weakened export demand amid global manufacturing slowdowns[2] Price and Inventory Trends - Raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices showed a significant slowdown in contraction due to rising international crude oil prices and domestic price adjustments[2] - Overall inventory levels for raw materials and finished goods continued to decrease, indicating a sustained destocking trend[2] Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3%, while small enterprises' PMI dropped to 46.4%, both down by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Medium-sized enterprises saw a slight recovery, with PMI increasing by 0.9 percentage points to 49.5%[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, remaining above the expansion threshold[3] - The construction sector's index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, impacted by extreme weather conditions affecting construction progress[3] - Service sector index slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, indicating stability at the threshold[3] Overall Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.2%, reflecting a slowdown in economic expansion[3] - Future outlook suggests continued pressure on manufacturing due to seasonal factors and extreme weather conditions, with potential for further declines in August[3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The dairy industry in China is experiencing a structural adjustment due to declining milk prices and rising production costs, leading to increased losses among dairy farms and a reduction in the number of dairy cows [1][22][27] - The dairy product market is dominated by a few major players, with a notable performance in flavored milk and online sales channels, indicating potential growth areas despite overall consumption decline [2][42][61] - Tianjin is emerging as a significant urban dairy industry cluster, leveraging advanced DHI measurement technology to enhance milk production efficiency [3][67][76] Summary by Sections 1. China's Dairy Industry and Production Adjustments - Inner Mongolia is the largest milk-producing region, accounting for over 19% of national milk production in 2024 [1] - The average price of fresh milk has decreased by 11.75% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, leading to a cost-price inversion for dairy farms [22][25] - The number of dairy cows in China is projected to decrease by over 500,000 heads in 2024 compared to 2023 [27][36] 2. Dairy Product Market Dynamics - The production of dairy products from large-scale enterprises is expected to decline by 1.90% in 2024, with a total output of 29.62 million tons [2][42] - The market share of flavored milk products is increasing, with online sales channels showing significant growth potential [2][61] - The average per capita consumption of dairy products in China is only 40.5 kg/year, significantly lower than the recommended dietary intake and below levels in developed countries [54] 3. Tianjin's Dairy Industry Development - Tianjin's dairy industry has achieved an annual output value exceeding 11.68 billion yuan, with a slight increase in dairy cow inventory in 2024 [3][70] - The DHI measurement technology in Tianjin is leading nationally, with a full coverage of DHI testing for all dairy cows in the region [3][76] - The average milk yield per cow in Tianjin is significantly higher than the national average, showcasing the effectiveness of local dairy management practices [3][70]