Group 1: US Economic Indicators - In November 2025, the inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures in the US increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with the growth rate of goods consumption reaching its highest level since the second half of 2025[1] - The US industrial output in December showed unexpected growth, and the previously announced annualized GDP growth rate for Q3 was revised upward, marking the highest level in two years[1] - The US economy demonstrates strong endogenous momentum as of the end of 2025, supported by wages and savings despite persistent inflation[1] Group 2: European Economic Conditions - By December 2025, the year-on-year inflation rate in Europe fell below 2%, indicating a continued easing of pressure, primarily driven by labor costs and year-end consumption peaks in the service sector[2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers its current monetary policy stance appropriate but retains flexibility for adjustments[2] - Uncertainties regarding the Greenland issue between major European countries and the US have temporarily decreased, leading to a slight increase in global risk appetite[2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Outlook - In Q4 2025, China's actual GDP growth rate slowed due to a high base effect, but the annual economic growth target was still met, with a pattern of stronger supply than demand and stronger external demand than internal demand[2] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see continued structural support from net exports, with new policy measures from the central bank likely to stabilize government-led investment projects[2] - The State Council emphasizes improving long-term mechanisms to promote consumption, with new stimulus policies including loan interest subsidies and special guarantee plans being introduced[2] Group 4: Market Risks - Geopolitical risks are rising, potentially disrupting market risk appetite due to uncertainties in the global economic and trade landscape[2] - Economic and policy changes exceeding expectations could lead to adjustments in related policies as the domestic economy undergoes a transformation[2]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Neutral" [8][60] - Specific company ratings include "Buy" for 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) and "Increase" for 药明康德 (WuXi AppTec) [8][60] Core Insights - The report highlights the issuance of opinions by nine departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, aimed at promoting high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, indicating a potential turning point for pharmacy operations [8][16] - The report emphasizes the expected benefits for leading chain pharmacies from policy support and increased industry concentration [8][16] - The inclusion of the drug替尔泊肽 (Tirzepatide) as a breakthrough therapy for treating metabolic-associated fatty liver disease is noted as a significant development [8][16] Industry News - The National Medical Insurance Administration issued a guideline for the pricing of surgical and treatment auxiliary services, consolidating existing price projects into 37 items [16] - The report discusses the promotion of pharmaceutical retail industry transformation towards a "health service hub" through enhanced pharmacy services and optimized purchasing experiences [16][17] - The report mentions the ongoing development of AI applications in healthcare and pharmaceuticals, suggesting investment opportunities in AI-related companies [8][58] Industry Data - As of January 22, 2026, the price index for traditional Chinese medicine shows a year-on-year decline of 14%, with specific herbs like 连翘 (Forsythia) and 党参 (Codonopsis) experiencing significant price drops of 31% and 36% respectively [18][23] - The SW pharmaceutical industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is reported at 52.01 times, with a valuation premium of 266% relative to the CSI 300 index [52] Company Announcements - 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) received clinical trial approval for multiple drugs, including SHR-7787 and 阿得贝利 (Adalimumab) [30] - 百利天恒 (Baili Tianheng) has had its drug application for treating recurrent or metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma accepted [31] - 复星医药 (Fosun Pharma) announced plans to spin off a subsidiary for listing and received clinical trial approval for a drug targeting advanced colorectal cancer [35]

Macro and Strategy Research - The market is expected to continue its oscillation and consolidation, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and addressing internal competition issues. The A-share market shows mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.24% and the ChiNext Index falling by 1.17% over the past five trading days [2][3] - Fixed asset investment in December 2025 decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, indicating a weakening trend in investment. Meanwhile, retail sales growth also slowed down due to policy withdrawal and high base effects. Overall, the economic growth rate for 2025 is expected to show a pattern of high first and low second half, with a successful completion of the annual target [2][3] - The government is focusing on strengthening domestic circulation and addressing supply-demand imbalances. A new strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 is being developed, alongside measures to improve capacity exit mechanisms and control "involution" competition [3] Industry Research - The computer industry is experiencing a downturn, with the sector declining by 7.27% from January 15 to January 21. Most sub-sectors within the computer industry also saw declines, with IT services dropping by 9.54% [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is accelerating breakthroughs in key technologies such as training chips and heterogeneous computing power, which is expected to speed up the development of the domestic computing power industry. Domestic cloud computing companies are anticipated to see a rebound in capital expenditure [6][8] - AI applications are expanding, with Alibaba's Qianwen App integrating various services within its ecosystem, indicating a strong potential for AI commercial applications. The report suggests focusing on leading companies that demonstrate strong capabilities in AI technology implementation and scene adaptation [6][8]

Market Review - In the past five trading days (January 16 to January 22), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.24%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.17% [5] - The trading volume significantly decreased, with a total turnover of 13.80 trillion yuan, and the average daily turnover dropped to 2.76 trillion yuan, a decrease of 683.69 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [10] Economic Growth and Investment - In December 2025, fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the period from January to November 2025; infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) fell by 2.2% [26] - The manufacturing investment grew by 0.6% year-on-year, while real estate investment saw a significant decline of 17.2% [26] - Overall, the economic growth rate for 2025 showed a pattern of high growth followed by a slowdown, with the annual target being successfully achieved [26] Policy and Strategy - The government is focusing on strengthening domestic circulation as a key macro policy point, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [31] - The fiscal policy for 2026 will see an increase in total expenditure, with a focus on boosting consumption and ensuring necessary spending intensity [31] - The market is expected to continue its oscillating adjustment, with ETF experiencing continuous net outflows; however, overall trading enthusiasm remains, and market sentiment may fluctuate [32] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics, driven by the expansion of AI capital and domestic substitution processes [32] - The non-ferrous metals industry presents investment opportunities supported by rising prices of certain commodities [32] - Continued attention is warranted for banking and insurance sectors due to the management's push for long-term capital inflows and a low-interest-rate environment [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the computer industry and an "Accumulate" rating for Hongsoft Technology (688088) [2][29] Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is accelerating breakthroughs in key technologies such as training chips and heterogeneous computing power, which is expected to further speed up the development of the domestic computing power industry [13][28] - The AI application ecosystem is deepening, with significant developments such as the integration of Alibaba's Qianwen App into its ecosystem, enabling AI shopping functionalities [14][28] - The report highlights the growth potential of AI applications driven by rapid technological implementation and the release of market demand, suggesting a focus on leading companies with strong AI technology capabilities and scene adaptability [28][29] Industry News - MIIT has announced a special action plan for "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing," aiming to promote high-quality development in the AI industry [13] - The GLM Coding Plan by Zhiyuan has announced a temporary sales limit due to a surge in user numbers, indicating a tight supply of computing resources [14] - Alibaba's Qianwen App has integrated with various services, achieving over 100 million monthly active users within two months [14][15] Company Announcements - Hikvision reported a total revenue of 92.518 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 14.188 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.46% [17] - Tonghuashun expects a net profit of 2.735 billion to 3.282 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 50% to 80% [18] - Longxin Technology anticipates a net profit of 100 million to 150 million yuan for 2025, with a significant increase due to improvements in its energy digitalization business [20] Market Review - From January 15 to January 21, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.40%, while the Shenwan Computer Industry index dropped by 7.27%, with most sub-sectors experiencing declines [21] - The valuation of the Shenwan Computer Industry as of January 21, 2026, was 223.77 times earnings, with a premium of 1550.55% relative to the CSI 300 [22] Weekly Strategy - The report emphasizes the ongoing high demand for computing power and the expected acceleration in the domestic cloud computing capital expenditure, driven by easing supply constraints [28] - The anticipated launch of the DeepSeek V4 model during the Lunar New Year is expected to drive a new round of technological iteration in domestic large models [28] - The report suggests a focus on leading companies in the AI application sector that demonstrate strong capabilities in technology implementation and scene adaptability [29]

晨会纪要（2026/01/22） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.22） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数下跌，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 2025 年全国工程机械开工率为 44.89%——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/01/22） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数下跌，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 3、风险提示 两融业务成本超预期变动风险；两融监管政策超预期变动风险。 行业研究 2025 年全国工程机械开工率为 44.89%——机械设备行业周报 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（1 月 14 日-1 月 20 日）A 股市场主要指数多数下跌，其中中证 500 涨幅最大，上涨了 1.28%；上证 50 跌幅最大，下跌了 1.99%。此外，上证综指下跌 0.61%，深证成指下跌 0.10%，创业板 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors, nor does it discuss their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The content primarily focuses on market data, financing and securities lending balances, industry characteristics, and ETF/stock-specific financing and securities lending activities[1][2][9]. - The report provides detailed data on financing and securities lending balances, including weekly changes in financing balances (+267.64 billion RMB) and securities lending balances (-2.63 billion RMB), as well as the total two-market balance of 27,003.83 billion RMB as of January 20, 2026[12][13][15]. - Industry-specific financing and securities lending characteristics are analyzed, highlighting sectors with the highest and lowest financing and securities lending activities. For example, the non-bank financial, communication, and electronics sectors had the highest financing buy-in ratios, while the textile and apparel, light manufacturing, and building materials sectors had the lowest[29][34][35]. - The report also identifies the top ETFs and stocks by financing net buy-in amounts, such as the "China Ping An" stock (601318) with a financing net buy-in of 230.64 million RMB and the "China Securities Electric Network Equipment Theme ETF" (159326.SZ) with a financing net buy-in of 42.23 million RMB[44][45][49]. - Securities lending activities are also detailed, with the top stocks by net securities lending sell-out amounts including "Jerry Shares" (002353.SZ) with 18.67 million RMB and "Giant Network" (002558.SZ) with 17.67 million RMB[50][51].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [4] - The companies recommended for "Increase" rating are Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [4] Core Insights - The national construction machinery operating rate for 2025 is projected to be 44.89%, with 18 provinces exceeding 50% [14] - The sales volume of excavators for the entire year of 2025 is expected to reach 235,300 units, with domestic sales of 118,500 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.9% [33] - The domestic humanoid robot industry remains highly prosperous, with several companies initiating IPO processes, indicating significant investment opportunities in the sector [33] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued guidelines for the construction of zero-carbon factories, aiming to enhance energy efficiency and promote green transformation in key industries [14][15] Industry News - The construction machinery operating rate in 2025 is 44.89%, with leading provinces including Anhui, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi [14] - The port equipment operating rate has shown continuous growth from July to December 2025, indicating a shift in foreign trade dynamics [14] - The guidelines for zero-carbon factory construction emphasize systematic advancement and innovation-driven approaches to reduce carbon emissions in various industries [15] Company Announcements - Tianjin Jinrong Tianyu Precision Machinery Co., Ltd. announced an investment in an industrial fund to enhance its strategic development and market insight [23] - Guangzhou Dayilong Packaging Machinery Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit growth of 51.88% to 86.27% for 2025, driven by market expansion and operational efficiency improvements [24] Market Review - From January 14 to January 20, 2026, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.89%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry rose by 1.23%, outperforming the index by 2.11 percentage points [25] - As of January 20, 2026, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry is 50.55, with a valuation premium of 254.64% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [26]

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for December 2025 shows a stable overall economy with a GDP growth of 4.5% year-on-year, matching expectations, but down from 4.8% in the previous quarter [2] - The industrial output value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while retail sales growth was lower at 0.9% [2] - Fixed asset investment saw a decline of 3.8% year-on-year, indicating a weakening investment environment [2] - The economic growth pattern for 2025 indicates a stronger supply than demand, with external demand outpacing internal demand, which is expected to continue into 2026 [2][3] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to see continued structural support from net exports, with potential stabilization in government-led investment projects [2] Production Structure - The industrial output growth in December 2025 showed a slight recovery, with high-tech manufacturing outpacing overall growth, indicating an optimization in production structure [3] - The production capacity utilization and sales rates reached their highest levels of the year, suggesting an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [3] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth in December 2025 was lower than expected, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption [3] - The decline in disposable income growth indicates a constraint on consumer spending capacity, although new policies are expected to support consumption in early 2026 [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded decline, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where investment growth rates fell significantly [4] - Infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize due to government initiatives, while real estate investment continues to struggle with a year-on-year decline of 35.8% [5] Fixed Income Research - Credit bond issuance increased, with a downward trend in overall interest rates, indicating a favorable environment for credit bonds despite a reduction in net financing [6] - The credit spread for various bond types is at historical lows, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook for credit bonds [6][8] Metal Industry Research - The steel industry is facing limited short-term demand pressure, with expectations of price stabilization due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment [9] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable despite weak supply dynamics, supported by positive long-term demand forecasts [10] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to improve due to demand from electric vehicles and high-pressure power grids, despite current oversupply issues [11] - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and mixed U.S. economic data, with long-term demand expected to rise [12]

Economic Growth - In Q4 2025, the actual GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, matching expectations but down from 4.8% in the previous quarter[2] - The annual economic growth for 2025 was characterized by a high start and a low finish, influenced by policy timing and demand-supply dynamics[3] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in December 2025 increased by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 5.0%[2] - High-tech manufacturing sectors showed growth rates significantly above the overall industrial average, indicating a shift in production structure[4] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 grew by only 0.9% year-on-year, below the expected 1.0% and down from 1.3% in the previous month[2] - Service consumption outperformed goods consumption, with specific sectors like cultural and communication equipment showing stronger performance[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.8% by December 2025, worse than the expected decline of 3.1%[2] - Real estate investment dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 35.8%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[6] Future Outlook - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see continued structural support from net exports, with potential stabilization in government-led investment projects[3] - Further policy measures are anticipated to support consumer spending and investment recovery in 2026[5][6]