Group 1: Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - In December 2025, China's exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, surpassing the previous growth of 5.9% and market expectations of 3.1%. Imports rose by 5.7%, up from 1.9% previously, exceeding the expected 0.9% [2] - The trade surplus reached $114.138 billion, compared to $111.676 billion previously, marking the third-highest level in history [2] - The export structure is improving, with significant contributions from high-tech and integrated circuit products, which accounted for over 6 percentage points of overall export growth [2] - The outlook for early 2026 suggests continued strong export performance due to favorable external conditions, including US-China trade relations and increased AI investment [3] Group 2: A-Share Market Investment Strategy - The A-share market is expected to undergo a phase of consolidation, with a narrowing range of active themes as the market adjusts after significant gains [4][5] - The central economic work conference has set a tone for capital market development, indicating a gradual expansion of public equity fund sizes and a balanced investment environment [5] - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics, driven by ongoing AI capital expansion and domestic technology substitution [6] Group 3: Computer Industry Research - The computer industry saw a 13.38% increase in the Shenwan Computer sector from January 8 to January 14, 2026, with all sub-sectors experiencing growth [7] - The upcoming release of the DeepSeek V4 model is anticipated to accelerate the penetration of AI applications, with significant improvements in AI computing capabilities expected from new chip platforms [8][11] - The integration of AI technology into manufacturing is being promoted by government policies, which may enhance the application of AI across various industrial sectors [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices rise last week, with the CSI 500 experiencing the largest increase of 4.21%, while the SSE 50 had the largest decline of 0.82% [2] - As of January 13, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2,673.881 billion yuan, an increase of 102.270 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The average daily number of investors participating in margin trading increased by 24.25% to 660,158 [2] Industry Insights - The machinery equipment industry is projected to sell 235,300 excavators in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17% [5][6] - In December 2025, sales of various types of excavators reached 23,095 units, up 19.2% year-on-year, while sales of loaders reached 12,236 units, up 30% [5] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in December 2025 was 76.5 hours [5] Company Announcements - Ruina Intelligent plans to invest 169.9 million yuan to establish a research and production base for efficient heat pumps [5] - Jiaotong Iron and Steel has received the 2025 China Railway Society Science and Technology Progress Award [5] Performance Review - From January 7 to January 13, the SSE 300 index fell by 0.62%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment industry rose by 3.30%, outperforming the SSE 300 index by 3.92 percentage points [6] - As of January 13, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment industry was 50.03 times, with a valuation premium of 245.85% compared to the SSE 300 [6] Future Outlook - The machinery equipment industry is expected to continue its recovery in 2026, supported by the implementation of major water conservancy projects and policies favoring large-scale equipment updates [6] - Domestic leading machinery manufacturers are accelerating their expansion into overseas markets, leveraging strong competitiveness in technology maturity and product cost-effectiveness [6]

Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds have generally increased, with changes ranging from 0 BP to 8 BP, leading to a significant increase in credit bond issuance volume due to a low base effect [2] - The net financing amount for credit bonds has increased, while the net financing for targeted tools has decreased; corporate bonds have a negative net financing amount, while other types have positive net financing [2] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction amounts for credit bonds, with most types experiencing growth [2] - Credit spreads have narrowed for most mid-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds, as credit bonds continue to perform better than interest rate bonds [2] - The overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are insufficient, with a long-term downward trend in yields expected [2] Company Research: WuXi AppTec (药明康德) - WuXi AppTec expects to achieve a revenue of approximately 45.456 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 15.84%, with continuous operating business revenue expected to grow by approximately 21.40% [6][7] - The adjusted non-IFRS net profit is projected to be around 14.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 41.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach approximately 19.151 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of about 102.65% [6][7] - The strong growth is attributed to the advantages of the CRDMO model, with a focus on integrated services and continuous optimization of production processes [7] - The company plans to focus on its CRDMO business model and has sold parts of its equity in joint ventures, contributing to its profit growth [7] Industry Research: Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to maintain production levels due to acceptable profit margins, although demand is in a seasonal decline [13] - Copper prices are influenced by market sentiment and resource competition, with potential for high volatility [13] - Aluminum prices are supported by high copper prices and strategic resource concerns, while supply remains ample [13] - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to geopolitical risks and mixed U.S. employment data [13] - The rare earth market is anticipated to strengthen due to export control measures and strategic importance [14]

Group 1: Fund Research - The equity market saw all major indices rise, with the highest increase being 9.80% for the Sci-Tech 50 index during the week of January 5 to January 9, 2026 [2] - The average return for equity funds was 4.66%, with a positive return ratio of 98.63%, while fixed income plus funds averaged a 0.90% increase with a positive return ratio of 93.57% [3] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 57.215 billion yuan, with bond ETFs seeing the largest outflow of 66.431 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Industry Research - The U.S. Supreme Court has not yet announced a ruling on the Trump tariff case, which is being closely monitored, while the U.S. has postponed the tariff increase on certain imported furniture products [5] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.19 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector underperformed by 0.13 percentage points during the same period [6] - China's emotional consumption market is projected to grow from 1.63 trillion yuan in 2022 to over 4.5 trillion yuan by 2029, indicating strong growth potential in sectors like trendy toys, pet consumption, and domestic fashion [7]

Macro and Strategy Research - The US manufacturing PMI has further declined in December 2025, marking the largest month-on-month drop since 2024, indicating a prolonged downturn for 10 months, while the service sector PMI remains strong, highlighting structural divergence in the US economy [2][3] - In China, the manufacturing PMI returned above the threshold in December 2025, with improvements in both supply and demand, while the non-manufacturing sector also showed unexpected recovery [3] Fixed Income Research - In December 2025, the central bank's liquidity net injection exceeded 800 billion, with money market rates remaining low, while the yield on 10Y government bonds rose by 1 basis point to 1.85% by the end of December [7][9] - The bond market is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern, with inflation and monetary policy acting as anchors for the upper and lower bounds of this range [9] Industry Research - The listing of Rebio Biotech on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has increased attention on the small nucleic acid sector, with significant developments in the industry including the approval of new drugs and strategic partnerships [10][12][13] - The SW pharmaceutical index rose by 6.13% in the week of January 5-8, 2026, with all sub-sectors experiencing gains, indicating a strong market performance [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the computer industry and an "Overweight" rating for Hongsoft Technology (688088) [41] Core Insights - The "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" policy has been jointly issued by eight departments, marking a significant step towards the integration of AI and manufacturing [7] - Nvidia has announced the full production of its Rubin chip platform, which shows significant performance improvements over the previous Blackwell architecture [10][11] - The software industry in China has shown robust growth, with business revenue reaching 139,777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [16] Industry News - The "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" initiative aims to achieve reliable supply of core AI technologies and maintain a leading position in industrial scale and empowerment by 2027 [7] - Super Fusion, a leading computing power company, has initiated its listing guidance [7] - Nvidia's Rubin platform integrates six chips and boasts a peak computing power of 50 Petaflops, with significant improvements in energy efficiency [10] Industry Data - In November 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the computer industry decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year [12] - From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of electronic computers in China was 31,690.5 million units, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [12] - The software industry reported a total profit of 16,954 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [16] Company Announcements - Haohan Deep announced an investment and acquisition agreement to gain control of 54% of Cloud Edge Cloud Technology [28] - Nengke Technology plans to raise up to 1 billion yuan through a private placement to fund various AI projects [29][30] Market Review - From December 1 to December 31, the Shenwan Computer Industry index fell by 0.25%, with mixed performance across sub-sectors [31] - As of December 31, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Computer Industry was 208.15 times, with a premium of 1447.27% compared to the CSI 300 [32] Monthly Strategy - The report emphasizes the potential of AI computing power and applications, particularly with the advancements from Nvidia and the new policy initiatives [40] - It suggests focusing on leading companies that have strong capabilities in AI technology implementation and scene adaptation [40]

Macro and Strategy Research - The central bank's 2026 work meeting emphasizes "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" to enhance support for high-quality economic development, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [2] - The monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" stance, prioritizing stable prices as a key goal for the year [2] - The capital market will see mechanisms established to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific scenarios, indicating continued support for market stability [2] Financial Engineering Research - All major indices in the A-share market rose last week, with the ChiNext Index showing the smallest increase of 2.36% and the STAR 50 Index the largest at 5.11% [5] - The margin trading balance reached 25,716.11 billion yuan, an increase of 243.18 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating growing investor participation [5][6] - The average daily trading volume in the two markets was 2.75 trillion yuan, a significant increase compared to the previous period [2] Industry Research - The "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" policy has been launched, creating favorable conditions for AI applications in the manufacturing sector [8][10] - The computer industry saw a 13.3% year-on-year increase in business revenue, reaching 139,777 billion yuan, while profit totaled 16,954 billion yuan, up 6.6% [8] - The AI computing power sector is expected to accelerate with the launch of NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip platform "Rubin," enhancing the AI computing capabilities of cloud service providers [11]

Fixed Income Research - The core viewpoint indicates a divergence in the issuance guidance rates for credit bonds, with medium to high ratings increasing and low ratings decreasing, resulting in an overall change of -6BP to 4BP [2] - In December, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with only short-term financing bonds seeing an increase; net financing for credit bonds decreased while company bonds saw an increase [2] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction volume for credit bonds in December, with yields showing low volatility; the overall credit spread widened, with most varieties at historical low levels [2] - The report suggests that the supply shortage and strong demand for allocation will continue to drive a recovery in credit bonds, with a long-term downward trend in yields expected [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting strategies in response to market fluctuations and highlights the need to focus on the trends in interest rate bonds while considering the value of individual bonds [2] Financial Engineering Research - The report notes that all major indices rose, with the margin balance continuing to increase, indicating a recovery in valuations and trading opportunities [4] - For the week of December 24-30, all major A-share indices increased, with the CSI 500 showing the largest rise of 2.79% [5] - The margin balance in the two markets reached 25,472.93 billion yuan, an increase of 236.17 billion yuan from the previous week, with the average daily number of investors participating in margin trading rising by 17.70% [5][6] Industry Research - Pharmaceutical and Biological Industry - The report highlights the ongoing trend in the innovative drug industry, with significant developments in regulatory frameworks and a notable increase in the number of approved innovative drugs [12] - In November, the medical care CPI was 101.6, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI was 96.1, down 3.9% year-on-year [12] - The report indicates that the innovative drug industry in China is expected to continue its long-term growth trajectory, with a focus on strategic developments in related sectors [12][13] Industry Research - Metals Industry - The report outlines that the steel industry is expected to continue facing weak demand in January 2026, with prices likely to remain low [16] - For copper, the supply is expected to be sufficient, but high prices may suppress downstream demand, leading to a phase of high price fluctuations [16] - The report suggests that the aluminum industry may see improved profitability due to low prices of alumina and strong demand from sectors like new energy vehicles [18] - The report emphasizes the strategic value of rare earth resources and suggests that the industry is poised for future growth, particularly in new energy and robotics sectors [20]

Group 1: Fund Research - The equity market indices showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index experiencing the largest decline of 1.25%. Among 31 Shenwan first-level industries, 12 sectors rose, with the top five gainers being oil and petrochemicals, defense and military, media, automotive, and machinery equipment. The sectors with the largest declines included utilities, food and beverage, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials [2] - The public fund market saw a total scale exceeding 37 trillion yuan, with the implementation of new regulations on fund sales expenses [2] - Most funds performed poorly due to market adjustments, with equity funds, particularly those focused on stocks, experiencing an average decline of 0.60%. The positive return ratio for equity funds was 21.62% [3] Group 2: ETF Market Overview - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 20.852 billion yuan, with bond ETFs seeing the largest inflow of 25.099 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume reached 406.118 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 7.05% [3] Group 3: Industry Research - The "old-for-new" policy is set to continue smoothly, with smart glasses included in the subsidy range, which is expected to lower prices and stimulate market growth [5][6] - In the period from January to November 2025, the retail sales of furniture reached 189.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.90%. Retail sales for clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles totaled 1,359.67 billion yuan, growing by 3.50% year-on-year [6] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.48 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector underperformed by 3.31 percentage points [6] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to improve profitability in the paper industry, as it reduces the cost of purchasing pulp, which is heavily relied upon by the industry [7]

Macro and Strategy Research - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 is reported at 50.1%, indicating a return to the expansion zone after 8 months, with improvements in both production and demand [2][3] - The production index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, attributed to reduced uncertainties from the external trade environment [3] - The new orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%, marking the first return to expansion in the second half of the year [3] - New export orders increased by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, showing a significant slowdown in contraction, while the import index continued to contract [3] - The December non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.7 percentage points to 50.2%, returning to the expansion zone, driven significantly by the construction sector [4] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 1.0 percentage point to 50.7%, reflecting a rebound in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [4] - The outlook for January 2026 suggests continued expansion in manufacturing due to a stable external trade environment and the gradual implementation of incremental policies [4] U.S. Monetary Series - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is crucial for understanding changes in dollar liquidity, primarily through "bilateral accounting" methods [6][7] - The Fed's balance sheet has been in an expansion trend since its inception, influenced by economic development and institutional changes [7] - The historical changes in the Fed's balance sheet can be divided into four phases, with the most recent phase (2020-present) seeing accelerated expansion due to the pandemic [7] Financial Engineering Research - Company governance is identified as a critical component of corporate competitiveness, directly affecting resource allocation efficiency, profitability sustainability, and risk management [9] - A well-governed company enhances operational quality and market profitability expectations, leading to a steady increase in stock prices [9][10] - The report outlines six dimensions of corporate governance that impact stock pricing, including shareholder behavior, debt management, and ESG scores [10][11] - Future research will focus on the interaction effects of governance indicators, heterogeneity across different scenarios, and the development of a multidimensional governance evaluation system [11]