Macro and Strategy Research - The manufacturing sector shows further improvement with a notable recovery in small enterprises, as indicated by the September PMI data, which reported a manufacturing PMI of 49.8%, a non-manufacturing business activity index of 50.0%, and a composite PMI output index of 50.6% [2][3] - The production index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, while the new orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, still below the critical point [3] - New export orders reached a high of 47.8%, marking a 0.6 percentage point increase, suggesting a reduction in the impact of tariff policies [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, with the construction sector slightly improving to 49.3% and the service sector declining to 50.1% [4] - The composite PMI output index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.6%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing, which offset the short-term decline in non-manufacturing [4] A-Share Market Investment Strategy - Major indices in the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.09% and the ChiNext Index by 0.81% over the recent trading period [6][7] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to clarify economic strategies, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and supporting innovation as key components [7] - The market is anticipated to maintain a strong structural characteristic, with potential investment opportunities in sectors such as TMT, electric power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and consumer services [8] Industry Research - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached CNY 9,400.40 billion from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.90% [14] - The light industry sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.54% against the index's increase of 3.20% [15] - The packaging paper industry is expected to see improved performance due to price increases being passed down to downstream sectors, with significant profit growth anticipated in Q3 [15][16] - The consumer market showed stable growth during the recent holiday period, with government subsidies expected to further stimulate sales in related sectors [15][16]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September 2025 improved to 50.6%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing sentiment[3] - The production index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, reflecting a significant acceleration in production pace[4] - New orders index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, still below the critical threshold[4] - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 51.0%, while small enterprises saw a notable improvement of 1.6 percentage points to 48.2%[4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, remaining at the dividing line[5] - The construction sector's business activity index slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, still in contraction territory[5] - The service sector's business activity index declined by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, influenced by the end of the summer season[5] Group 3: Overall Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 50.6%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing, which offset the short-term decline in non-manufacturing[5] - Future manufacturing recovery depends on timely macro policy support and external environment stability[5]

Macro and Strategy Research - The report discusses the evolution of exchange rate systems globally, categorizing them into four types: hard peg, soft peg, floating exchange rates, and others. It highlights that the choice of exchange rate systems is influenced by various constraints, including trade development and financial stability, alongside monetary policy independence [3] - The Chinese yuan's exchange rate mechanism is based on market supply and demand, referencing a basket of currencies, and follows a managed floating exchange rate system. This system has evolved through four stages, balancing government guidance and market demand while ensuring financial stability [3][4] Yuan Exchange Rate Analysis Framework - A "3+1" framework is established for analyzing the yuan's exchange rate from long, medium, and short-term perspectives, incorporating institutional regulation. Long-term factors focus on purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, and behavioral equilibrium exchange rate models. Medium-term factors emphasize the impact of the balance of payments, while short-term factors consider market sentiment and investor psychology [4] - The People's Bank of China plays a crucial role in stabilizing the foreign exchange market through various counter-cyclical adjustment measures to prevent market volatility and herd behavior [4] Yuan Exchange Rate Model Prediction - The report constructs a prediction model for the yuan's spot exchange rate using key indicators such as the US-China 2-year bond yield spread, PMI export orders, and the US dollar index. The model shows a good fit with an R^2 of 0.92, indicating a strong predictive capability for exchange rate turning points, although it notes limitations during periods of policy changes and external shocks [4] Fixed Income Research - The report indicates that the issuance guidance rates for credit bonds have generally increased, with a change of -13 basis points from the end of Q2 2025 to the end of Q3 2025. The total issuance scale in Q3 2025 saw a slight decrease, with corporate bonds and medium-term notes experiencing reduced issuance, while short-term financing bonds and targeted tools saw increases [6][7] - The credit bond market showed a slight increase in transaction volume in Q3 2025, with corporate bonds and medium-term notes seeing decreased transaction amounts. The overall yield on credit bonds has been on the rise, particularly in September [7] - The report suggests that despite market fluctuations, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds are insufficient, and a long-term downward trend in yields is anticipated. The strategy recommends increasing allocations during adjustments, focusing on the trend of interest rate bonds while considering individual bond coupon values [7][8] Fund Research - The report notes that all major equity market indices rose, with the largest increase in the Sci-Tech 50 index, which rose by 6.47%. The report also highlights that the public fund scale reached a new high [10][11] - In the ETF market, there was a net inflow of 103.12 billion yuan, with bond ETFs receiving the most significant inflow due to the establishment of new Sci-Tech bond ETFs. The average daily trading volume in the ETF market reached 476.15 billion yuan [11][12]

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first eight months of 2025, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in profitability [4][5] - The profit growth rate turned positive, with a significant monthly increase of 20.4% in August, driven by improved pricing stability and a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [5][6] - The revenue profit margin for the same period was 5.24%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, but the decline was less severe compared to previous months, contributing to the positive profit growth [5][6] Fixed Income Research - The report explores investment strategies for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in 2025, highlighting the effectiveness of initial public offering (IPO) selling strategies [8][9] - Historical data shows that selling on the first day of listing yields the highest success rate, while holding for longer periods results in diminishing returns [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in REIT investments, with specific months showing higher success rates for buying and holding strategies [12] Company Research - The company, as a specialized platform for the China Rare Earth Group, saw significant improvement in performance in H1 2025 due to rising rare earth prices, with a notable increase in sales net profit margin [20][21] - Short-term demand for rare earths is expected to remain resilient, supported by policies and seasonal consumption peaks, while long-term prospects are bolstered by the strategic importance of rare earths [20][21] - The company is advancing its mining projects and has strong potential for asset injection from its parent group, which could enhance its production capacity significantly [21][23] Industry Research - The light industry sector is experiencing price increases for packaging paper, with multiple manufacturers raising prices by 30-50 yuan per ton, which is expected to positively impact downstream products [24][25] - Recent changes in U.S. tariff policies, including significant tariffs on imported furniture and building materials, are anticipated to have a limited long-term impact on the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [25] - The introduction of national standards for smart mattresses is expected to promote market regulation and consumer protection, supporting healthy industry development [25]

Group 1: Profit Growth and Trends - The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in the first eight months of 2025 turned positive, increasing by 0.9% year-on-year[1] - In August 2025, the profit of industrial enterprises saw a significant monthly increase of 20.4% year-on-year[1] - The operating revenue of industrial enterprises maintained stability, achieving a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in the first eight months[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The industrial added value for the same period grew by 6.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first seven months[3] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.24%, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, but the decline rate narrowed compared to the first seven months[3] - Among 41 major industrial sectors, 17 sectors achieved positive profit growth in the first eight months, with notable increases in transportation equipment manufacturing and resource recycling industries[4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The future profitability of industrial enterprises will depend on the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, particularly in capacity management, which is a key observation point[4] - There are risks related to the optimization of market competition order and external environmental uncertainties that could disrupt domestic economic stability[5] - The semiconductor industry's profitability is expected to improve due to increased capital expenditure by domestic AI companies[4]

Macroeconomic and Policy Environment - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing employment and inflation due to the contradiction between economic resilience and a gradual decline in employment, leading to ambiguity in future interest rate cuts [2][3] - The Eurozone shows signs of improvement in economic indicators following multiple interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, with low policy rates and stable inflation supporting domestic demand [3] Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic demand has weakened in the second half of the year, influenced by diminishing policy effects, extreme weather, and high base effects, while external demand has exceeded expectations [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to provide more certainty for domestic demand in Q4, with policies aimed at promoting consumption, stabilizing real estate, and expanding investment requiring time for validation [3][4] Domestic Policy Environment - The central bank has expressed a commitment to implementing detailed monetary policy, with current macro and micro liquidity remaining relatively ample [4] - Fiscal policy is under pressure due to the pre-issuance of government bonds, but there are indications of available fiscal resources for smooth transitions into the next year [4] Industry Developments - The National Organization for Drug Procurement has released the 11th batch of centralized procurement documents, indicating a shift towards using anchor prices rather than simply selecting the lowest bid, reflecting a trend against excessive competition in the pharmaceutical industry [8][9] - Recent approvals and clinical trials in the pharmaceutical sector include the launch of a subcutaneous formulation of Pembrolizumab and the initiation of Phase III trials for a new drug by Zai Lab [8][9] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.83%, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector saw a decline of 1.68% during the week of September 19-25, 2025 [9] - The price-to-earnings ratio for the pharmaceutical and biological industry was reported at 31.13 times, with a valuation premium of 146% relative to the CSI 300 index [9] Investment Strategy - The upcoming IPOs in the pharmaceutical sector, including the successful listing of Jinfang Pharmaceutical, indicate an opening window for new listings [9] - Investment strategies should focus on opportunities arising from interest rate cuts, innovation in drug development, and the benefits of optimized procurement rules in the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4][61] - The specific company rating for 恒瑞医药 is "Buy" [4][61] Core Insights - The report highlights the release of the 11th batch of centralized procurement announcements, indicating ongoing optimization of procurement rules [4][12] - It emphasizes the trend of reducing internal competition within the pharmaceutical industry, as the new procurement rules will use anchor prices rather than simply selecting the lowest bid [4][60] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in innovative drugs and related industries, particularly in light of upcoming academic conferences showcasing Chinese pharmaceutical companies' R&D progress [4][60] Industry News - The National Organization for Drug Procurement announced the 11th batch of centralized procurement, with procurement agreements to be signed annually based on actual usage and supply conditions [12] - The report mentions that Zejing Pharmaceutical's CD3/DLL3 tri-antibody has entered Phase III clinical trials [13] - The approval of the subcutaneous formulation of Pembrolizumab (Keytruda) by Merck is noted, which offers a more convenient administration method [14] - Jinfang Pharmaceutical successfully listed in Hong Kong, raising approximately 1.44 billion HKD [15] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.83%. However, the pharmaceutical and biological sector fell by 1.68% [47] - All sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry experienced declines, with the largest drop in the pharmaceutical commercial sector at -3.83% [47] Company Announcements - 恒瑞医药 signed a licensing agreement with Glenmark Specialty for the innovative drug SHR-A1811, with potential milestone payments reaching up to 1.093 billion USD [28] - 信达生物 received approval for the new indication of its drug for adult Type 2 diabetes patients [30] - 甘李药业 announced a significant contract with Brazilian partners, with a total expected value of no less than 3 billion RMB [31] - 百奥赛图's A-share issuance has been approved for listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bonds remain a weak asset currently. At the end of September, first focus on changes in the funding situation and the equity market, and approach with a cautious mindset. Also, look ahead to the main - line switching process in the fourth quarter. In 2025, the bond market switched to a relatively clear main - line logic each quarter, and the main - line logic weakened at the end of each quarter. The trading main - line in the fourth quarter may switch to institutional behavior changes and interest - rate cut expectations successively, and the yield curve may show a pattern of steepening first and then flattening [17][18][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Funds Price: Tightening of Quarter - End Funding - From September 19th to September 25th, the central bank made a net open - market injection of nearly 60 billion yuan. On September 22nd, it conducted 30 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. During the statistical period, the overall funds price increased, with the DR007 rising to 1.6%, the R007 rising to 1.8%, and the 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit yield rising to 1.7%, the highest since early June [8] 3.2 Primary Market: Increase in Special Bond Issuance Scale - From September 19th to September 25th, 119 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance total of 708.6 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 77.2 billion yuan. On September 19th, 82 billion yuan of 30 - year special treasury bonds were re - issued at a price of 99.67 yuan, with an annual yield of 2.17%, higher than the secondary - market transaction price. The issuance scale of local special bonds increased seasonally at the end of the month. As of September 25th, 1.23 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds had been issued in 2025, with about 70 billion yuan remaining to be issued; 3.66 trillion yuan of new local special bonds had been issued, with about 240 billion yuan remaining to be issued [10][11] 3.3 Secondary Market: Uptick in Yield Curve - From September 19th to September 25th, the treasury bond yield curve rose again, with increased intraday volatility. The main constraint on the bond market during this statistical period came from the news front. The market expected that the redemption fee adjustment for public bond funds was imminent, which led institutions to actively redeem bond funds. Additionally, the stock - bond seesaw effect still existed, and the relatively strong and volatile equity market also dampened bond market sentiment [12] 3.4 Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: The bond market currently has low sensitivity to fundamentals. From an asset - allocation perspective, weak fundamentals imply a low return rate in the real economy. However, in the stage of low bond coupons and capital losses, bond - type assets also struggle to provide higher comprehensive returns, so the bond market's sensitivity to fundamentals has declined [17] - **Policy**: Incremental policies will mainly cover three directions. First, after the release of August economic data, market expectations for pro - growth policies have increased, with promoting consumption and expanding infrastructure likely to be key areas. The real - estate sector may also see partial relaxation. Second, the fund redemption fee adjustment plan will be officially implemented. Third, there is still a high expectation that the central bank will restart open - market bond purchases to maintain liquidity and stabilize the bond market, which may occur alongside the redemption fee adjustment to smooth out bond market fluctuations. Based on 2024 experience, the central bank mainly buys short - term bonds, so the yield curve is likely to steepen, and caution is needed for long - term bonds [17] - **Funds**: There is still pressure on the cross - quarter funding situation [18]

Macro and Strategy Research - External demand faces marginal decline pressure due to high base effects and demand front-loading from previous "export grabbing/transshipment effects," leading to uncertainty in the trade environment, making exports less effective as a fundamental support [2][3] - Domestic market shows a strong supply but weak demand characteristic, with fluctuations in consumption and investment data, indicating that the economic recovery foundation still needs further consolidation [2] - The overall liquidity in the domestic market is expected to remain abundant, despite the potential for short-term incremental measures being limited due to the emphasis on the implementation of existing policies [3] Capital Market Liquidity - In the fourth quarter, long-term funds represented by insurance are expected to continue flowing into the market, aided by the effectiveness of public fund reforms, which will help attract the migration of resident assets [3] - A-share market liquidity is anticipated to continue its incremental process, with foreign capital likely increasing its allocation to A-shares during the interest rate cut cycle [3] A-share Market Outlook - Market valuation repair is nearly complete, and under the policy guidance to "consolidate the capital market's recovery," liquidity is expected to maintain an incremental trend [3] - The core focus will shift to the flow of incremental funds, with performance factors remaining a crucial consideration for fund allocation, particularly in the technology sector, which is expected to lead structural market trends [3] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the TMT sector due to the promotion of "Artificial Intelligence+" initiatives and increased capital expenditure by domestic cloud vendors [4] - The power equipment industry presents investment opportunities driven by high overseas demand for energy storage and the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries [4] - The pharmaceutical and non-ferrous metals industries are highlighted for investment opportunities due to significant competitive advantages in domestic innovative drugs and the anticipated acceleration of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4] - The service consumption sector is expected to see investment opportunities as the "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to further improve basic security systems [4]

晨会纪要（2025/09/25） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.25） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数震荡调整，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 钢铁稳增长方案发布，刚果（金）延长钴出口禁令——金属行业周报 人形机器人催化频出，继续关注产业落地进展——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/09/25） 上周（9 月 17 日-9 月 23 日）A 股市场主要指数多数震荡调整，其中科创 50 涨幅最大，上涨了 3.63%；上 证综指跌幅最大，下跌了 1.04%。此外，深证成指上涨 0.43%，创业板指上涨 0.89%，沪深 300 下跌 0.08%， 上证 50 下跌 0.96%，中证 500 下跌 0.14%。 9 月 23 日，沪深两市两融余额为 24,089.97 亿元，较上周增加 241.89 亿元。其中融资余额为 23,922.51 亿元， 较上 ...