Market Review - The important indices showed mixed performance over the past five trading days, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.50% and the ChiNext Index down by 1.61% [2] - The trading volume continued to shrink, with a total turnover of 5.36 trillion yuan, averaging 1.07 trillion yuan per day, a decrease of 524.08 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - Among the industries, the environmental protection, pharmaceutical, and computer sectors saw the highest gains, while the power equipment, comprehensive, and automotive sectors experienced the largest declines [2] Data Insights - From January to April, the profit growth rate of large-scale industrial enterprises continued to recover. However, the industrial added value growth rate showed a decline compared to the first quarter due to the impact of tariff policies on exports [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also saw a year-on-year decline, leading to a slight decrease in revenue growth. However, the profit margin decline narrowed, providing some support for enterprise profits [2] - Looking ahead, the easing of Sino-US trade relations in May and the "export rush effect" from tariff exemptions are expected to support revenue and improve profit growth for industrial enterprises [2] Policy Developments - Consumption-boosting measures are being implemented, with the Fujian provincial government announcing a special action plan to enhance consumption, focusing on service consumption and new consumption areas such as health and low-altitude economy [3] - The plan encourages flexible work arrangements to create more consumption scenarios, which is expected to stimulate consumer demand [3] - Overall, these measures are anticipated to provide incremental support for the consumption sector as part of the strategy to strengthen domestic circulation [3] Strategy Outlook - The market is expected to continue oscillating at reasonable levels, with future opportunities depending on incremental changes in the market [4] - If external risks or fundamental factors lead to unexpected downturns, stable funding support may help form a temporary market bottom [4] - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend and relatively underweight sectors like banking, while also looking for thematic investment opportunities in new consumption areas [4]

Market Overview - During the week of May 21 to May 27, the A-share market saw all major indices decline, with the ChiNext Index experiencing the largest drop of 2.77%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.15% [2] - As of May 27, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,804.733 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.577 billion yuan from the previous week. The financing balance was 1,792.922 billion yuan, down by 2.292 billion yuan, and the securities lending balance was 11.812 billion yuan, down by 0.285 billion yuan [2] Industry Insights - In the financing activities, the automotive, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metal industries saw significant net buying, while the electronics, computer, and non-bank financial sectors experienced lower net buying [3] - The financing buy-in ratio was notably high in the non-bank financial, banking, and steel industries, while it was lower in textiles, light manufacturing, and retail [3] Company Announcements - Huanghe Xuanfeng plans to establish Henan Qianyuan Chip Drilling Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. in partnership with Bozhi Jinduan [5] - Tianyi Shangjia intends to change its stock abbreviation to Tianyi New Materials [5] Machinery Industry Performance - From January to April 2025, excavator sales reached 83,500 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.40%, with domestic sales accounting for 49,100 units, up by 31.90% [6] - The construction machinery industry is experiencing an upward trend, driven by improved construction activity, particularly in road equipment, which saw significant increases in operating rates [6] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the machinery industry, with specific "buy" ratings for companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC Corporation [6]

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first four months of 2025, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, indicating a continued recovery [2] - The industrial added value increased by 6.4% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, reflecting a decline in both volume and price [2] - The profit margin for the period was 4.87%, down 2.6% year-on-year, but the decline was narrower compared to the previous quarter, providing some support for enterprise profits [2][3] - Different types of enterprises showed varied profit growth, with private and joint-stock enterprises improving, while state-owned and foreign enterprises continued to decline [2][3] - Most of the 41 industrial categories saw positive profit growth, particularly in sectors like mining, food processing, and high-tech manufacturing, indicating strong support from "two new" policies [3] Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds decreased, with a range of -3 BP to -1 BP, and the net financing amount turned positive [4][6] - The credit bond issuance scale increased, while corporate bonds had zero issuance, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4] - The overall credit bond market remains stable, with expectations of a downward trend in yields in the long term, suggesting a strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments [6] Industry Research - Significant transactions in the pharmaceutical sector were noted, with Sanofi and Pfizer reaching an agreement on a PD-1/VEGF dual antibody, indicating strong market activity [8][9] - The pharmaceutical sector saw a 1.78% increase in the week of May 19-23, 2025, outperforming the broader market indices [8] - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical industry remains high, with a TTM P/E ratio of 27.44, reflecting a 146% premium over the CSI 300 [8] Metals Industry Research - Gold prices have rebounded due to expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical factors, while lithium prices continue to decline due to oversupply [10][11] - The steel market is expected to lack upward momentum in the short term, influenced by demand and raw material cost trends [10] - The aluminum market may see price increases if demand grows due to export activities, while copper prices are anticipated to fluctuate without strong support [10]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first four months of 2025, the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.4% year-on-year[3] - The operating revenue for the same period grew by 3.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter[3] - The profit margin for large-scale industrial enterprises was 4.87%, down by 2.6% year-on-year, but the decline was narrower than in the first quarter[3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Among 41 industrial sectors, most achieved positive profit growth in the first four months, maintaining the same growth breadth as in the first quarter[4] - High-tech manufacturing sectors, such as electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, showed significant profit improvement, indicating strong support from "two new" policies[4] - Private and joint-stock enterprises continued to see profit growth, while state-owned and foreign enterprises experienced a decline[3] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The improvement in industrial profit growth is primarily driven by a narrowing decline in profit margins[4] - The easing of external tariff pressures and the implementation of domestic "four stability" policies are expected to support continued profit recovery[4] - Risks include the potential underperformance of the "export rush effect" and uncertainties in the external environment that could impact domestic economic stability[5]

Group 1: Fund Research - The pharmaceutical industry performed well while major market indices mostly declined, with the top five performing sectors being pharmaceuticals, comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and household appliances [2] - The public fund market saw the first batch of new floating rate funds set to be issued, and private fund scale reached 20.22 trillion yuan [2] - FOF funds showed good performance, with the average weekly net value of pension target FOF rising by 0.64%, while bond funds had the largest increase of 0.08% [2] Group 2: Industry Research - Shanghai and Chengdu released policies to boost consumption, suggesting a focus on new tobacco investment opportunities [4] - The light manufacturing industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.90 percentage points, while the textile and apparel industry outperformed by 0.06 percentage points [6] - The global sales of heated tobacco products are expected to grow by 12.7% year-on-year in 2024, while electronic cigarette sales are projected to increase by 9.5% [6]

Group 1: Macro Environment - The global trade tensions have eased temporarily, with the May Markit manufacturing, services, and composite PMI preliminary values exceeding expectations, indicating an overall expansion trend. However, inflationary pressures are still rising, as evidenced by the University of Michigan's inflation expectations reaching a historical high [3] - In Europe, the May composite PMI unexpectedly contracted due to service sector weakness, highlighting the need for early interest rate cuts to stabilize the economy amidst political turmoil and weak domestic demand [4] Group 2: Domestic Environment - In April, despite external challenges, the domestic economy remained stable under supportive macro policies, with new growth drivers becoming increasingly significant. The "export grab" trend is expected to continue under eased US-China tariffs, but consumer and investment sectors require substantial policy support to solidify the current situation [4] - Fiscal data for January to April shows a narrowing decline in national public budget revenue, with tax revenue recovering while non-tax revenue continues to decline. Public budget expenditure has progressed faster than the same period last year, focusing on livelihood areas [4] Group 3: High-Frequency Data - In the real estate sector, transaction volumes have rebounded, while wholesale prices for agricultural products have shown a downward trend. Midstream sectors like steel and cement have seen price declines, and upstream prices for coking coal and coke have weakened slightly, with non-ferrous metal prices remaining stable [4] Group 4: Fixed Income Research - The period from May 16 to May 22 saw a mixed performance in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 4 basis points to 1.72%. The market is characterized by a lack of new information, leading to a cautious outlook on bond yields [6][7] - The issuance of special bonds has increased marginally, with a total of 109 interest rate bonds issued during the period, amounting to a net financing of 633.9 billion yuan [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report After the temporary easing of trade relations, the "rush to export" effect and the increase in risk appetite put some pressure on the bond market. However, the continuous improvement of domestic demand still takes time, which limits the upward range of bond market yields. With limited incremental information recently, it is expected that bond market yields will fluctuate following the movement of capital prices [28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Event Reviews - **Economic Data**: In April, economic indicators in production, investment, and consumption showed marginal declines. Export - related industries were affected by tariffs, while high - tech and equipment manufacturing maintained high growth. In the future, "rush to export" may mainly involve inventory reduction, and tariff uncertainties still affect production and investment willingness. The expansion of domestic demand policies can boost consumption, but more employment and income - stabilizing policies are needed. These factors limit the upper limit of bond market yield fluctuations [9]. - **Fiscal Data**: In April, the marginal improvement of broad - based fiscal revenue was observed, and fiscal expenditure continued to increase. Public fiscal revenue improved, with the cumulative year - on - year decline of corporate income tax narrowing for the second consecutive month. Public fiscal expenditure focused on people's livelihood, while government - funded expenditure may be more inclined to "two important" and "two new" areas [10][11]. 3.2 Capital Price: DR007 First Rose and Then Fell During the statistical period, the central bank net - injected nearly 700 billion yuan. DR007 first rose due to the disturbance of treasury bond supply and then fell back. However, the inter - bank certificate of deposit yield increased again, mainly because the reduction of deposit interest rates led to deposit transfer, and banks faced greater pressure on liability outflows [12]. 3.3 Primary Market: The Issuance Scale of New Special Bonds Increased Marginally From May 16th to May 22nd, 109 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance total of 897 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 633.9 billion yuan. The supply of treasury bonds was large, and the issuance of new special bonds increased marginally. The overall supply scale in May was controllable, but the disturbance of interest - rate bond supply still needed attention [19]. 3.4 Secondary Market: Interest Rates Showed Differentiated Performance During May 16th - May 22nd, the yields of treasury bonds with different maturities varied. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose 4bp to 1.72%. After the reduction of LPR quotes and deposit interest rates, there was a profit - taking sentiment in the bond market. Subsequently, with limited incremental information, the bond market showed a wait - and - see attitude, and the trading volumes of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds decreased [20]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: From May to July, the "rush to export" effect may become more obvious, mainly through inventory reduction, which has limited impact on domestic inflation. Domestic demand improvement takes time, and trade frictions may recur. Therefore, the upper limit of the long - term interest rate fluctuation range will not be too high [26][28]. - **Policy**: After the positive progress in Sino - US talks, the expectation of large - scale incremental policies has cooled. In terms of monetary policy, some banks have reduced deposit interest rates, which eases the pressure on bank spreads and suggests the possibility of further interest rate cuts (policy rates and LPR quotes) around August - September. The resumption of the central bank's open - market treasury bond trading operations is worthy of attention [28]. - **Capital**: When there is a lack of incremental information in the market, the impact of capital price fluctuations is crucial, especially at the end of the month when the supply pressure of interest - rate bonds is large [28].

Group 1: Corporate Pension System in China - The development of China's corporate pension system has gone through three stages over more than 20 years, with a scale reaching 3.6 trillion yuan by 2024, nearly half of the basic pension insurance in 2023. However, the participation rate is only 3.4%, which is low compared to OECD countries [3][4] - The U.S. corporate pension system has a long history, with a participation rate of 23.4% by 1970 and a scale of 22.4 trillion USD by 2023, accounting for 53.2% of the pension system. The asset allocation of private DB plans is approximately 6:3:1 for equities, fixed income, and other assets, while DC plans favor equities at a ratio of 8:1:1 [4] - Japan's corporate pension system, established in the 1960s, has a total scale of 92.8 trillion yen by March 2024, accounting for 26.2% of the pension system. The asset allocation is balanced for DB plans and more concentrated in high-yield assets for DC plans [5] - Learning from the U.S. and Japan, China's corporate pension system may optimize participation mechanisms, contribution confirmation, tax models, investment choices, and account management, which could lead to increased long-term capital inflow into the equity market [5] Group 2: A-Share Market Investment Strategy - In the past five trading days (May 16-22), major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02% and the ChiNext Index up 0.11%. The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.12 trillion yuan, down 127.85 billion yuan from the previous five days [6][7] - Economic growth remained stable in April, with fixed asset investment growing by 4.0% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 5.1%. This stability is attributed to the effectiveness of previous macro policies [7] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced plans to improve merger and acquisition mechanisms to support the development of new productive forces, indicating a potential increase in M&A activities in the near future [7] - The market's future opportunities will depend on incremental changes, with a focus on high-quality development and structural layout. A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on both high-dividend banking stocks and thematic investments in new consumption sectors [8] Group 3: Margin Trading and Securities Lending - In the week of May 14-20, major A-share indices mostly declined, with the Shanghai 50 index rising by 0.32% and the Sci-Tech 50 index falling by 1.19%. The total margin trading balance reached 1.80731 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.461 billion yuan from the previous week [9][10] - The sectors with the highest net buying in margin trading included automotive, non-bank financials, and machinery, while the computer, electronics, and telecommunications sectors saw lower net buying [10] - The top five stocks for net buying in margin trading were CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, China Merchants Bank, Tonghua Golden Horse, and GF Securities [11]

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first four months of 2025, national general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year [2] - Government fund budget revenue was 12,586 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, while expenditure was 26,136 billion yuan, up 17.7% year-on-year [2] Public Finance Income - Public finance income continued to show negative growth, but the decline narrowed compared to the first three months, with tax revenue's year-on-year decline narrowing by 1.4 percentage points to -2.1% [3] - Corporate income tax revenue's year-on-year decline narrowed by 3.7 percentage points to -3.1%, indicating a potential improvement in corporate profitability [3] - Non-tax revenue growth rate fell compared to the first three months, but the overall structure of public finance income improved [3] Public Finance Expenditure - Public finance expenditure grew by 4.6% year-on-year, with a notable increase in spending on people's livelihood, which rose by 6.6% [3] - Social security and employment spending increased by 8.5%, while education spending rose by 7.4% [3] - Infrastructure spending continued to show negative growth but the decline narrowed, with infrastructure spending now accounting for less than 20% of total public finance expenditure, a new low in recent years [3] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed compared to the first three months, with land transfer revenue's decline improving from -15.9% to -11.4% [4] - Government fund expenditure increased by 17.7% year-on-year, with central government expenditure growing by 75% and local government expenditure increasing by 16.6% [4] - The combination of public finance and government fund expenditure resulted in a year-on-year growth of 7.2% in broad fiscal expenditure [4] Industry Research - In April 2025, forklift sales reached 130,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.03% [6] - The operating rate of road construction equipment remained high, with significant growth in construction activity across 15 provinces [6] - Excavator sales from January to April totaled 83,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, indicating strong domestic market performance [6] Company Announcements - Zoomlion plans to acquire equity in Beijing Leasing through public bidding [6] - Xinjie Electric plans to establish an industrial investment partnership [6] Market Performance - From May 14 to May 20, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.05%, while the machinery equipment sector fell by 0.86%, underperforming the index by 0.91 percentage points [6] - As of May 20, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio for the machinery equipment sector was 26.91 times, with a valuation premium of 125.92% over the CSI 300 [6] Future Outlook - The demand for construction machinery is expected to improve due to ongoing construction projects and favorable weather conditions [6] - The production roadmap for Tesla's humanoid robots is becoming clearer, which may drive rapid development in the industry [7] - The industry maintains a "positive" rating, with recommendations to increase holdings in companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and others [6][7]

晨会纪要（2025/05/21） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.21） 宏观及策略研究 投资相对消费更具挑战——2025 年 4 月经济数据点评 固定收益研究 发行规模下降，净融资额继续为负——信用债周报 行业研究 宏观利好逐渐消化，关注抢出口行为影响——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/05/21） 宏观及策略研究 投资相对消费更具挑战——2025 年 4 月经济数据点评 4 月全国规上工业增加值同比和环比增速均放缓。分行业来看，受关税冲击，近八成行业生产增速均有不同 程度的放缓，工业企业出口交货值同比增速大幅下降 6.8 个百分点至 0.9%，其中受影响较大的纺织业生产 增速下降 2.8 个百分点至 2.9%；高新技术制造业和设备制造业生产在工业转型升级及新动能不断壮大下仍 保持较高增速。服务业生产指数同比增长 6.0%，较 3 月下降 0.3 个百分点， ...