Macro and Strategy Research - The report highlights a persistent "anti-involution" sentiment in the macroeconomic environment, with the U.S. manufacturing PMI falling to a new low since December 2024, while the service sector shows signs of recovery [2][3] - In the domestic context, various sectors including automotive, photovoltaic, cement, and steel are actively implementing measures to curb disorderly competition and promote industrial upgrades, significantly boosting market sentiment [4] - The upcoming Politburo meeting is expected to provide further insights into policy directions, particularly regarding the importance of "anti-involution" in addressing supply-demand imbalances [4] Fixed Income Research - The report notes that the bond market is under pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield rising above 1.7%, influenced by a tightening of the monetary environment and expectations of increased infrastructure investment [6][7] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of over 500 billion yuan in the open market, leading to a noticeable increase in funding prices [7] - The issuance of bonds has seen weak subscription sentiment, with a total issuance of 90 bonds amounting to 940.9 billion yuan, indicating a continued lack of enthusiasm in the primary market [7] Industry Research - The report discusses the "anti-involution" in centralized procurement within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, emphasizing the need to focus on beneficiaries of optimized procurement rules [10] - Key industry news includes the approval of new treatments and the establishment of a biopharmaceutical industrial park in Pudong, which is expected to enhance the sector's growth [10][11] - The report indicates a positive performance in the pharmaceutical sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.53% and the pharmaceutical sector increasing by 2.94% during the week [11] - The report suggests that the innovation drug sector is supported by ongoing policy initiatives, and it recommends focusing on companies that are expected to benefit from these changes [11]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the CSI 300 index [8][58]. Core Insights - The report highlights the optimization of centralized procurement rules, which aims to stabilize clinical practices, ensure quality, and prevent excessive competition in the pharmaceutical sector. This is expected to benefit pharmaceutical and medical device sectors [6][57]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog and the performance of companies exceeding expectations in their semi-annual reports. It suggests focusing on pipeline realization, performance growth, and business collaborations within the innovative drug and related industry chain [6][57]. - The report notes significant developments in the pharmaceutical industry, including the approval of new drug indications and strategic partnerships for drug development, which are expected to enhance market opportunities [19][29][34]. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the employee medical insurance personal account mutual aid involved 200 million people, with a total mutual aid amount of 26.177 billion yuan [5][18]. - The Shanghai Pudong New Area government has issued a plan to enhance the functions of the biopharmaceutical industry park from 2025 to 2027, aiming for an industry scale exceeding 500 billion yuan by 2027 [18]. - The report mentions the approval of Novo Nordisk's semaglutide for treating chronic kidney disease in China, which is a significant advancement in the industry [19]. Market Performance - During the week of July 18-24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.94%, and the pharmaceutical and biological sector also saw a rise of 2.94%. All sub-sectors experienced growth, with medical services leading at 6.16% [6][44]. - As of July 24, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the pharmaceutical and biological industry was 30.59 times, with a valuation premium of 155% relative to the CSI 300 index [6][48]. Company Announcements - Lizhu Group's clinical trial for a humanized monoclonal antibody injection reached its primary endpoint, indicating progress in its development pipeline [29]. - WuXi Biologics and WuXi AppTec both issued positive profit forecasts, with expected revenue growth of approximately 16% and over 60%, respectively, for the first half of 2025 [32][33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under pressure, with the 10Y Treasury yield rising above 1.7% and the 30Y Treasury yield above 1.9%. If the Political Bureau meeting makes positive arrangements on the demand side, the bond market may continue to face pressure, and the interest rate may reach the阶段性 high in March 2025; if the policy to expand domestic demand at the Political Bureau meeting is limited, the interest rate may enter a volatile pattern after a phased recovery [1][2][3]. Summary by Section 1. Funds Price - The central bank continuously withdrew funds. During the statistical period from July 18 to July 24, 2025, the central bank's net withdrawal of funds in the open market exceeded 50 billion yuan. On the one hand, it was due to the maturity of large - scale previous tax - period injections, and on the other hand, it might be an attempt to cool the equity market indirectly. The funds price rose significantly on July 24, with DR007 quickly rising from below 1.5% to nearly 1.6% [1][8]. 2. Primary Market - During the statistical period, 90 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 940.9 billion yuan and a net financing of 769.1 billion yuan. The scale of new local special bonds continued to increase, but the subscription sentiment for ultra - long - term Treasury bonds remained weak. On July 24, the annual yield of the 30Y special Treasury bond was 1.97%, 0.5 - 1.0bp higher than the secondary - market trading yield [1][10][11]. 3. Secondary Market - During the statistical period, bond yields across all tenors increased, mainly affected by three factors: the strengthening "anti - involution" signal and the continuation of supply - side capacity - reduction policies; the start of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, which boosted fixed - asset investment from the demand side and triggered expectations of a "grand infrastructure era"; and the sudden tightening of the funds market, combined with increased redemption pressure on bond funds and wealth management products. By the end of the statistical period, the 10Y and 30Y Treasury yields had reached 1.7% and 1.9% respectively [1][12]. 4. Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: In the past 1 - 2 weeks, the fundamentals mainly focused on domestic "anti - involution" and infrastructure, and economic expectations have risen rapidly. The July PMI will initially verify these optimistic expectations. Future information to watch includes changes in the trade environment. A concession from the Trump administration may boost market risk appetite, while increased trade pressure may repair bond - market sentiment [3][17][19]. - **Policy**: At the central level, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are drafting a revised draft of the Price Law to regulate market price order. As the July Political Bureau meeting approaches, the "anti - involution" signal may be further strengthened, and more attention should be paid to the meeting's deployment of demand - side policies. If the meeting makes positive arrangements, the bond market may continue to face pressure. The possibility of incremental monetary policies in July is limited, with a focus on implementing existing policies and flexible adjustments, especially the dynamics of restarting Treasury bond trading [3][17][19]. - **Funds**: The funds market may tighten at the end of the month [3][20]. - **Summary**: If the Political Bureau meeting makes positive demand - side arrangements, the bond market may continue to face pressure, and the interest rate may reach the 2025 March high; if the policy to expand domestic demand is limited, the interest rate may enter a volatile pattern after a phased recovery, and it is difficult to break below the June volatility center without monetary - policy support [3][20].

Group 1: Macro Economic Environment - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value fell below expectations, reaching a new low since December 2024, due to ongoing tariff concerns and rising inflation pressures[1] - The service sector outlook improved, leading to a composite PMI reaching a new high since the beginning of the year[1] - Initial jobless claims in the US dropped to a three-month low, indicating a stable employment market[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Environment - The launch of the Yaxia Hydropower Project and the "anti-involution" policy have boosted market sentiment and expectations for inflation stabilization[2] - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of July is a key indicator for future policy directions, particularly regarding the "anti-involution" strategy[2] - Real estate transactions weakened, while the wholesale price index for agricultural products showed fluctuations[2] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Steel prices have rebounded, while cement prices have decreased[2] - Prices for coking coal and coke have significantly increased, with most non-ferrous metal prices rising and gold prices slightly rebounding[2] - Crude oil prices have declined, reflecting broader commodity market trends[2]

Group 1: Market Overview - Major indices experienced gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.53% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 3.35% over the past five trading days [2] - The trading volume significantly increased, with a total of 8.87 trillion yuan traded, averaging 1.77 trillion yuan per day, which is an increase of 221.8 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - The banking and telecommunications sectors were the only ones to decline, while coal, steel, and construction materials sectors saw the highest gains [2] Group 2: Policy Developments - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project was announced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for the construction of five hydropower stations [2] - The State Council released the "Rural Road Regulations," emphasizing the need for upgrading rural roads, with an estimated 117.1 billion yuan required for the upgrade of approximately 125,000 kilometers of rural roads [2] - Recent infrastructure investments are expected to further stimulate economic growth, supported by ongoing "anti-involution" policies [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The market is expected to benefit from the deployment of major hydropower and infrastructure projects, with supply-side expectations and demand-side policies driving index growth [3] - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as electric equipment, resource products, and construction materials, driven by "anti-involution" and infrastructure stability [3] - The TMT sector, pharmaceuticals, and defense industries are also highlighted as areas with potential investment opportunities due to AI trends and international expansion [3] Group 4: Fund Analysis - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total number of equity funds reached 7,025, with a total scale of 77,162.93 billion yuan, an increase of 2,660.60 billion yuan from the previous quarter [5] - The average equity allocation for mixed equity funds decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 87.56%, while the weighted average allocation fell by 0.10 percentage points to 88.36% [5] - Significant increases in allocation were observed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and ChiNext, while the allocation to the main board decreased [6] Group 5: Sector Allocation - The sectors with increased allocation include banking, telecommunications, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and defense, while food and beverage, automotive, and electrical equipment sectors saw decreased allocation [6] - The top five stocks held by active equity funds include Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, Tencent Holdings, China Merchants Bank, and Ping An Insurance, with total holdings of 1,427 billion yuan for Ningde Times [6][7]

基金季报 sHuangjin 权益仓位整体下降，增配银行、通信；减配食品饮料、汽车 ――公募权益类基金 2025 年二季报持仓分析 分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2025 年 7 月 24 日 证券分析师 宋旸 songyang@bhzq.com 022-28451131 张笑晨 SAC NO：S1150525070001 zhangxc@bhzq.com 022-23839033 相关研究报告 权 益 市场 主要 指数 延续 上 涨，科创债成为 ETF 资金配 置的主要方向—公募基金周 报 2025.07.21 房地产领涨行业，宽基指数 资金净流出规模收窄―公募 基金周报 2025.07.14 宽基指数资金大幅流出，主 动权益基金仓位上升——公 募基金周报 2025.07.07 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 13 基 金 研 究 券 研 究 报 告 | 1. 权益基金规模、仓位及板块分布情况 4 | | --- | | 1.1 被动指数基金持续高速增长，主动权益类基金仓位水平大体持平 4 | | 1.2 港交所与创业板增配显 ...

Market Overview - During the week of July 16 to July 22, the A-share market saw all major indices rise, with the ChiNext Index experiencing the highest increase of 3.39%, while the Shanghai 50 Index had the smallest rise of 1.64% [2] - As of July 22, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,927.099 billion yuan, an increase of 42.6 billion yuan from the previous week [2] Industry Insights - The electronic, pharmaceutical, and machinery equipment sectors had significant net buying in margin trading, while the food and beverage, retail, and oil and petrochemical sectors saw less net buying [3] - The industries with a higher proportion of margin buying relative to trading volume included non-bank financials, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals, whereas textiles, light manufacturing, and retail had lower proportions [3] ETF and Stock Performance - As of July 22, the financing balance for ETFs was 97.924 billion yuan, an increase of 4.572 billion yuan from the previous week [3] - The top five ETFs by net buying in margin trading were identified as: - Fuguo Zhongzhai 7-10 Year Policy Financial Bond ETF - Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 5-Year Government Bond ETF - Haifutong Zhongzhai Short-term Bond ETF - Haifutong Shanghai Stock Exchange Urban Investment Bond ETF - Pengyang Zhongzhai 30-Year Government Bond ETF [3] Individual Stock Highlights - The top five stocks with the highest net buying in margin trading were: - Xinyi Sheng (300502) - Huadian New Energy (600930) - Northern Rare Earth (600111) - Feiliwa (300395) - China National Materials (002080) [4] - The top five stocks with the highest net selling in margin trading were: - Kweichow Moutai (600519) - Sany Heavy Industry (600031) - CATL (300750) - Jinfat Technology (600143) - Small Commodity City (600415) [4]

Fixed Income Research - The core viewpoint indicates that from July 14 to July 20, the issuance guidance rates for credit bonds showed divergence, with high-grade rates rising and mid-to-low grades declining, with overall changes ranging from -5 BP to 3 BP [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds slightly decreased on a month-on-month basis, with a reduction in corporate bonds and directional tools, while enterprise bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds saw an increase [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with enterprise bonds and directional tools showing an increase, while corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds experienced a decrease [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction amount of credit bonds continued to decline, with all varieties seeing a decrease in transaction amounts [2] - The overall yield of credit bonds decreased, and the credit spreads for medium-term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds narrowed [2] - The report suggests that despite the potential for fluctuations, the long-term yield is expected to continue on a downward trend, and investors should consider increasing allocations during adjustments while focusing on the trend of interest rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds [2] Industry Research - The report highlights that the central urban work conference indicates a shift in urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, which will serve as a new policy foundation [3] - In the real estate sector, ongoing optimization of policies is expected to support the market's stabilization, with a focus on high-quality central and state-owned enterprises, as well as high-quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees [3] - The report notes that the recent launch of a large hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, will significantly increase the demand for special steel, particularly in high-altitude and corrosive environments [5] - The aluminum market is expected to see price support from domestic policies, while the lithium market faces supply surplus pressure, limiting price increases [5] - The report anticipates that the rare earth market will benefit from improved export demand, with June exports showing a significant increase of 32.02% month-on-month [5][6] - The overall strategy maintains a neutral rating for the steel industry and a positive rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with specific recommendations for companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zhongjin Gold [6]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the CSI 300 index [30][38]. Core Views - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project officially commenced on July 19, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is expected to generate a demand for construction machinery of around 180 billion yuan [30][11]. - Excavator sales in June 2025 reached 18,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with total sales for the first half of the year at 120,500 units, up 16.8% year-on-year [30][4]. - The average operating rate of construction machinery nationwide in the first half of 2025 was 44.81%, indicating stable progress in infrastructure projects [30][11]. Industry News - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project officially started on July 19, 2025, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [11]. - UBTECH won a procurement project for robotic equipment worth 90.5115 million yuan, marking one of the largest single procurement orders in the industry [11]. - The average operating rate of construction machinery in the first half of 2025 was 44.81%, with 15 provinces exceeding 50% [11]. Company Announcements - Dongfang Precision signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Leju Robotics on July 21, 2025, focusing on humanoid robots [18]. - Kory Technology plans to increase its wholly-owned subsidiary Kory Technology's capital by 300 million yuan [19]. Market Review - From July 16 to July 22, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.49%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry increased by 5.05%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.57 percentage points [20][3]. - As of July 22, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry was 28.92 times, with a valuation premium of 126.54% compared to the CSI 300 [21][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with specific "Buy" ratings for companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights the commencement of a major hydropower project in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, which is expected to significantly increase the demand for special steel products due to the project's requirements [4][18]. - The report anticipates that the domestic economic stimulus policies will gradually show effects, supporting the prices of copper and aluminum, while the lithium market faces oversupply pressure [5][40][47]. - The report notes a substantial increase in China's rare earth exports in June, indicating a potential for price strengthening in the rare earth sector due to improved export demand [4][62]. Industry Summary Steel Industry - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which will likely boost demand for special steels [4][18]. - As of July 18, the total steel inventory was 13.3141 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.12% from the previous week and a year-on-year decrease of 22.71% [26]. - The average price index for steel on July 18 was 3,462.31 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.99% [39]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report indicates that the copper market is experiencing tight supply and low inventory, which may support prices in the short term [40]. - For aluminum, domestic policies are expected to support prices despite uncertainties in overseas tariff policies [47]. - The lithium market is under pressure from oversupply, but recent policy changes may provide some support for price recovery [53][54]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - In June, China's rare earth exports reached 7,742.2 tons, a significant month-on-month increase of 32.02%, suggesting a positive outlook for rare earth prices [4][62]. - The report also notes price movements in minor metals, with tungsten concentrate prices increasing by 2.27% to 180,000 yuan per ton [64].