Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is operating steadily, with a focus on dividend investment opportunities. The report suggests that while the coal supply is tightening due to increased safety inspections and the holiday season, the demand remains weak, primarily driven by just-in-time needs. The report anticipates stable low prices for electricity coal during the Spring Festival, supported by cold weather demand [5][44] - The report highlights that the equity market is experiencing mixed performance, with the coal sector showing significant declines. Despite this, there is a strong interest in dividend assets from medium to long-term funds, indicating a potential for investment in high-quality coal stocks with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities [5][44] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed mixed results, with the coal sector experiencing a notable decline of 1.93%, underperforming against the indices. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.54% [6][8] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices continue to decline due to weak supply and demand. The report notes that as the Spring Festival approaches, supply is tightening, but demand remains weak, leading to a downward trend in prices. The report expects electricity coal prices to stabilize at low levels during the holiday period [9][10][14] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are also under pressure, with the report indicating that the seventh round of price reductions for coke has been implemented. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to high inventory levels and low consumption, although some speculative buying may provide slight support to prices [28][29] Shipping Situation - The shipping market is experiencing a decline in both volume and price. The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports has decreased, and freight rates have continued to fall, reflecting weak demand expectations [37] Industry News - The report mentions significant developments in the coal industry, including the approval of a coal mine expansion project in Shanxi and plans for the construction of 130 intelligent coal mines in the province. These initiatives are expected to enhance production capacity and efficiency in the sector [40][41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is operating steadily, with a focus on dividend investment opportunities. The report suggests that while the coal supply is tightening due to safety inspections and the holiday season, demand remains weak, primarily driven by just-in-time needs. The report anticipates stable low prices for electricity coal during the holiday period, supported by cold weather [5][44] - The report highlights that the equity market is experiencing mixed performance, with the coal sector showing significant declines. Despite this, there is a strong interest in dividend assets from long-term funds, indicating a potential for investment in high-quality coal stocks with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities [5][44] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed mixed results, with the coal sector experiencing a notable decline of 1.93% during the week, underperforming the indices. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.54% [6][8] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices continued to decline due to weak supply and demand. The report notes that as the holiday approaches, supply is tightening, but demand remains weak, with electric coal demand supported by cold weather. The report expects stable low prices for electricity coal during the holiday [9][10][14] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are under pressure due to high inventory and low consumption. The report indicates that the market sentiment is pessimistic, but some speculative demand may provide slight support for prices. The report anticipates that prices will remain stable through the holiday period [28][29] Shipping Situation - The report indicates a decline in both shipping volume and prices, with the average number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports decreasing. Freight rates have also dropped across major shipping routes, reflecting weak demand expectations [37][39] Industry News - The report mentions significant developments in the coal industry, including the approval of a coal mine expansion project in Shanxi and plans for the construction of 130 intelligent coal mines in 2025. These initiatives are expected to enhance production capacity and efficiency in the sector [40][41]

Policy Impact - The "Implementation Plan for Promoting Medium and Long-term Funds into the Market" aims to stabilize the stock market by increasing the scale and extending the cycle of medium and long-term funds entering the market[1] - The policy is expected to bring incremental capital to the market, supporting stable development and boosting investor confidence in 2025[1] Insurance Funds - Large state-owned insurance companies are expected to invest 30% of their new premiums annually into A-shares starting from 2025, exceeding market expectations[1] - The implementation of a long-term performance evaluation mechanism for state-owned insurance companies will strengthen the role of insurance funds as a major force in medium and long-term investments[1] Social Security and Pension Funds - The policy aims to increase the proportion of stock investments by the National Social Security Fund and expand the scale of entrusted investments by basic pension funds[1] - A long-term performance evaluation mechanism of over five years for the National Social Security Fund and over three years for basic pension funds will be established[1] Enterprise Annuity - The policy encourages the expansion of enterprise annuity coverage and supports differentiated investment strategies by enterprise annuity fund managers[1] - A long-term performance evaluation mechanism of over three years for enterprise annuity funds will be introduced[1] Public and Private Funds - The policy emphasizes improving the mechanism for public funds to increase the proportion of equity investments and enhance investor returns[2] - The introduction of operational rules for private securities investment funds will expand product types and investment strategies[2] Investment Ecosystem - The policy encourages listed companies to increase share repurchases and implement multiple dividend distributions annually[2] - It allows various funds, including public funds, insurance funds, and pension funds, to participate in listed companies' private placements as strategic investors[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy effects falling short of expectations and increased volatility in the capital market[3]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 2% while the Shanghai Composite Index only saw a slight increase [1] - As of the market close on January 20, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% to 3244.38 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.94% to 10256.40 points, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.81% to 2004.73 points [1][3] - The total trading volume exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating active market participation [1] Sector Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industry indices, most sectors experienced gains, with notable increases in the power equipment sector (+2.16%), textile and apparel (+1.58%), and social services (+1.25%) [5] - Conversely, the coal sector (-1.26%), oil and petrochemicals (-1.02%), and construction materials (-0.68%) were among the worst performers [5] Market Sentiment - A total of 3,613 stocks rose, while 1,587 stocks declined, indicating a positive market sentiment with an upward ratio of 65.80% [4] - The market's overall trading volume was 991.07 million shares, with a total transaction value of 11,829.28 billion yuan [4]

Core Viewpoints - Dividend strategy aligns with the essence of value investing and can traverse bull and bear markets over the long term [1][4] - The dividend strategy index has shown strong performance, with the China Securities Dividend Index achieving a 14.85% positive return over the past five years, while the broader market index declined by 4.54% [4] - The dividend strategy is characterized by high dividend yield, high ROE, and low PB, providing a safety margin in valuations while ensuring stable profits and a willingness to distribute high dividends [7] Summary by Sections 1. Dividend Strategy and Value Investing - The dividend strategy index has consistently outperformed the broader market indices, with the S&P High Dividend Aristocrats Index yielding 358% since 2000 compared to 305% for the S&P 500 [4] - The essence of the dividend strategy lies in its focus on high dividend yield, which reflects a company's profitability and governance structure, making it a suitable choice for value investors [6][7] 2. Investment Outlook for 2025 - As of January 14, 2025, the China Securities Dividend Index has a dividend yield of 5.96%, placing it in the 82.5th percentile of historical performance, while its PB ratio of 0.76 indicates a reasonable undervaluation [8][9] - The shift in investment methodology from growth-oriented strategies to dividend-focused value investing is driven by a high-quality development phase, where investors seek stable and sustainable long-term returns [10] - Government policies, such as the "New National Nine Articles," encourage companies to increase dividend payouts, with nearly 1,000 companies disclosing dividends in 2024, significantly higher than previous years [12][13] 3. Comparative Performance of Dividend Indices - Long-term performance analysis shows that various dividend indices, including the China Securities Dividend Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Dividend Index, have consistently outperformed the CSI 300 Index [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is under pressure due to weak supply and demand, with market expectations turning pessimistic as some traders are selling at low prices [6][13] - The coal sector's performance is lagging behind the overall equity market, despite a general market uptrend [7][42] - The focus remains on coal companies with high dividend yields, as the sector's net profits are expected to decline [42] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market saw an overall increase, with the coal sector's performance trailing behind, as the coal index rose only 1.64% compared to the broader market indices [7][10] - Major coal companies reported lower expected net profits for 2024 compared to the previous year, indicating a general weakness in the coal sector [7][42] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices are facing downward pressure due to weak demand from downstream industries and high inventory levels at power plants [13][14] - The average price for thermal coal at various production sites has decreased, with significant drops noted in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi [14][18] - Port inventories of thermal coal have increased, reflecting a lack of strong demand from downstream buyers [19][20] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continue to decline, with market sentiment remaining pessimistic as some regions have initiated price reductions for coke [26][27] - The supply side is expected to tighten as coal mines prepare for holiday shutdowns, but demand remains weak due to seasonal factors [26][30] - The overall inventory levels for coking coal are high, which may continue to suppress prices in the short term [30] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim ports has increased, but remains at historical lows, while shipping rates continue to decline [36][38] - The average shipping rates for coal from Qinhuangdao to various ports have decreased, indicating a softening in the shipping market [36] Industry News - In 2024, China imported 54,269.7 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [37] - The Xinjiang railway has successfully transported over 90 million tons of coal, showcasing the region's economic resilience [37] - Shandong province is planning large-scale coal power projects to enhance energy supply stability [39]

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced significant gains, with over 5,000 stocks closing in the green. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.54% to close at 3,240.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.77% to 10,165.17 points, and the ChiNext Index surged by 4.71% to 2,075.76 points. The total trading volume exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan [2][4]. Sector Performance - All sectors in the Shenwan I-level industry index saw gains, with the leading sectors being Computer (+6.14%), Media (+5.72%), and Machinery Equipment (+5.68%). Other notable sectors included Automotive (+4.97%) and Retail (+4.82%) [6][4]. Trading Activity - A total of 5,328 stocks rose, accounting for 96.07% of the market, with 160 stocks hitting the daily limit up. The total trading volume reached 1,159.93 million shares, with a turnover of 13,507.01 billion yuan [5][4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [43]. Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a rebound in electricity coal prices, with short-term price increases expected due to supply constraints and seasonal demand from downstream power plants [4][10]. - The coal sector is recommended for low-position investment as the dividend yield of coal indices exceeds 6.4%, making it attractive compared to the 1.6% yield of ten-year government bonds [5][41]. - The focus is on high cash flow and high return coal stocks, especially those influenced by dividend guidance and market capitalization management [41]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal industry showed a good fundamental performance with tightening supply expectations as the year-end approaches, while demand was supported by cold weather in southern regions [5]. - The overall equity market performed poorly, with the coal sector experiencing a significant decline of 5.17% [5]. Supply and Demand Structure - The supply of thermal coal is expected to contract due to seasonal factors and safety inspections, leading to a continued price rebound [10]. - Downstream demand remains weak, with power plants showing stable coal consumption but high inventory levels [16]. Price Trends - The price of thermal coal has seen a slight increase, with specific prices reported for various regions, such as Inner Mongolia at 583 CNY/ton and Shanxi at 647 CNY/ton [11][25]. - The focus on price stability is evident as traders exhibit strong price support ahead of the Spring Festival [10]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are under pressure, with the sixth round of price reductions for coke fully implemented, and further declines in coking coal prices are anticipated [24]. - The demand for coking coal is weak due to reduced steel production and construction activity [24]. Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim ports has increased slightly, but shipping rates continue to decline, indicating a weak shipping market [33]. Industry News - Several coal enterprises have been recognized for their smart factory projects, and there are ongoing efforts to combat illegal mining activities [36]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is working on establishing a unified energy market system [36].

Core Insights - The report indicates a mixed performance in the market with the three major indices showing volatility, where the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rose by 0.02% to close at 3230.17 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices fell by 0.54% and 0.98% respectively [2][4] - The total trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.2 trillion, indicating a recovery in market activity [2][4] Market Performance - On January 8, 2025, the major indices experienced fluctuations, with the ChiNext index dropping over 3% at one point before recovering slightly in the afternoon [2] - The number of stocks that rose was 1,974, while 3,249 stocks declined, showing a bearish sentiment overall [4] Sector Performance - The report highlights that the household appliances sector led the gains with a rise of 2.23%, followed by the comprehensive sector at 1.94% and machinery equipment at 0.76% [5] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metals sector fell by 1.33%, steel by 1.20%, and basic chemicals by 1.14%, indicating significant losses in these areas [5] Policy Updates - The report mentions the implementation of a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, which includes subsidies for eight categories of household appliances [3] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced the upcoming launch of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Composite Index on January 20, 2025, aimed at reflecting the overall performance of the Sci-Tech board [3]

证券研究报告——市场日报 三大指数终止下行走势 超 4000 只个股上涨 证券研究报告——市场日报 2025.01.07 （预计发布时间：2025.01.08） 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址: http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 行情回顾 周二（1 月 7 日），三大指数早盘低开， 短暂拉升翻红后震荡回落走绿，午后触底反 弹，震荡拉升，三大指数悉数翻红，尾盘收涨。 截至收盘，上证指数（+0.71%）收报 3229.64 点，深证成指（+1.14%）收报 9998.76 点，创 业板指（+0.70%）收报 2028.36 点。两市量能 回落至 1 万亿（数据来源：Wind）。申万Ⅰ级 行业多数上涨，仅医药生物、煤炭、公用事业 下跌，电子、综合、通信领涨。 风险提示 量能大幅回落引发市场扰动 当日要闻 多地披露发行计划 2025 年专项债将靠前发力。末年初，多地已陆续披露 2025 年一季度地 方债发行计划。截至 1 月 6 日，已披 ...