Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market is showing a positive trend while the bond market is experiencing high-level fluctuations. The recent strong economic data from China has boosted market confidence, leading to a recovery in the A-share market despite previous concerns over the US "reciprocal tariffs" event [2][8]. - A-share market is stabilizing with a mild upward trend, supported by a GDP growth rate of 5.4% year-on-year in Q1. This resilience suggests a potential for sustained upward movement in the market [3][9]. - The technology sector is expected to remain a key focus for long-term investment, bolstered by national policy support and expanding industry space. The consumer sector is also anticipated to benefit from policy effects, indicating a potential recovery [11][12]. Group 2 - The bond market is expected to maintain a high-level fluctuation trend, with short-term bonds showing potential for better performance. The recent volatility in US Treasury yields has had limited impact on the Chinese bond market [4][34]. - The overall bond market is characterized by stability, with low-risk preferences supporting the current trend. Short-term bonds are recommended for investment due to their relative value [34][36]. Group 3 - The commodity market is experiencing a weak rebound, with gold and precious metals performing well due to increased demand for safe-haven assets. However, oil and metal commodities are underperforming due to oversupply in the international market [6][41]. - The recommendation for commodity investment emphasizes maintaining current allocations in gold, given its strong safe-haven logic amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [42].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - Rising temperatures are expected to release demand, while reduced risk appetite highlights dividend value [6] - The coal market is experiencing a mixed performance, with the coal sector outperforming the broader market due to high dividends and domestic demand [7] - Short-term coal prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate narrowly, while long-term demand for thermal coal may increase with rising temperatures [12][13] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market saw more gains than losses, with the coal sector leading in performance [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19% to 3276.73 points, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.59% to 3772.52 points [7] - The coal sector's weekly increase was 2.71%, closing at 2564.99 points, outperforming the indices [7] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices have slightly declined, with increased port inventories due to weather disruptions [12] - The average daily consumption of thermal coal in southern power plants decreased to 1.765 million tons, down 9.1% week-on-week [12] - The average maximum temperature in 28 major cities rose to 23.6°C, indicating potential demand recovery as summer approaches [12] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are stable with slight increases, supported by stable upstream supply and improved downstream demand from steel mills [29] - The average operating rate of 247 blast furnaces is 83.58%, indicating stable demand for coking coal [29] - The price of Australian hard coking coal increased by 6.0% to $187.6 per ton due to supply reductions [29] Supply and Demand Structure - Northern port inventories of thermal coal increased significantly, with average daily inventory rising to 32.0758 million tons, up 206.58 thousand tons week-on-week [20] - The daily average consumption of coal in power plants remains high, but overall demand is weak due to reduced activity in non-electric sectors [21] - Coking coal inventories at independent coking enterprises increased to 8.3012 million tons, reflecting a slight recovery in demand [34] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at the Bohai Rim ports increased, with shipping prices continuing to rise [37] - The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou rose to 46 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan week-on-week [37] Industry News - Significant progress has been made on the coal transportation railway project in Jinzhong City, aimed at optimizing coal transport logistics [40] - The National Energy Administration plans to enhance virtual power plant capabilities to 50 million kilowatts by 2030 [40] - In March 2025, coal imports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year to 38.732 million tons [41]

Market Review - The equity market showed mixed performance last week, with the North Certificate 50 index rising the most by 3.48%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.19%, and the CSI 300 by 0.59%. However, the Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext indices fell by 0.31% and 0.64% respectively [4][5] - Among the 31 sectors, financial and real estate sectors collectively rebounded, with banks up by 4.04% and real estate by 3.40% [4][5] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on the humanoid robot marathon in Beijing, with related funds such as Huaxia Intelligent Manufacturing Upgrade (016075) and Jiashi Technology Innovation (007343) [11][14] - The upcoming Huawei event on April 22, 2025, regarding its intelligent electric and charging network strategy, presents investment opportunities in funds like ICBC Ecological Environment (001245) and Huaxia New Energy Vehicle Leader (013395) [16][17] Asset Allocation Strategy - The overall allocation strategy suggests a balanced core with a barbell approach, focusing on dividend and technology sectors. High dividend assets are highlighted as having significant allocation value due to the low interest rate environment [17][18] - The technology growth direction is emphasized due to national policy support and the global trend towards artificial intelligence, which enhances the investment value of technology innovation companies [18] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The analysis indicates a net injection of 233.8 billion in the central bank's open market operations, maintaining a balanced and loose funding environment [22] - The first quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, reflecting the resilience of the domestic economy [22] - The issuance of general and ultra-long special government bonds is scheduled, indicating ongoing government support for the economy [22] Key Focus Products - Recommended products include short-term bond funds like Nord Short Bond (005350) and Guotai Lianan Medium and Short Bond (016947), with a focus on maintaining a balanced risk profile [25][27] - The report suggests considering convertible bonds for their dual characteristics of debt and equity, which currently show good allocation value [22][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - Rising temperatures are expected to release demand, while reduced risk appetite highlights dividend value [6][12] - The coal market is experiencing a mixed performance, with the coal sector outperforming the broader market due to high dividend yields [7][12] - Short-term coal prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate within a narrow range, while long-term demand may increase with rising temperatures [12][13] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market saw more gains than losses, with the coal sector leading in performance, up 2.71% [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.59% [7] - The average daily trading volume was 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating a decrease in trading enthusiasm [7] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices have slightly declined, with increased port inventories due to weather disruptions [12][20] - The average daily thermal coal consumption in southern power plants decreased to 1.765 million tons, down 9.1% week-on-week [12] - The utilization rate of 100 thermal coal mines reached 90.2%, up 0.3% from the previous week [12][20] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are stable with a slight upward trend, supported by stable upstream supply and improved downstream demand [29][30] - The average operating rate of 247 blast furnaces is 83.58%, indicating stable demand from the steel industry [29][34] - The price of Australian hard coking coal increased by 6.0% week-on-week, reflecting supply constraints [29][30] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at the Bohai Rim ports increased, with daily average shipping rates continuing to rise [37] - The average shipping rate from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou rose to 46 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton week-on-week [37] Industry News - Significant progress has been made on the coal transportation railway project in Jincheng City [40] - The National Energy Administration plans to develop more virtual power plants, aiming for a capacity of over 50 million kilowatts by 2030 [40][41] - In March 2025, coal imports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, totaling 38.732 million tons [41]

2025.04.17 （预计发布时间：2025.04.18） 大同证券研究中心 证券研究报告——市场日报 三大股指涨跌不一 中马发表命运共同体联合声明 证券研究报告——市场日报 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址: http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 行情回顾 周四（4 月 17 日），三大股指今日早盘低 开后集体翻红，随后全天窄幅震荡。截至收盘， 上证指数（0.13%）收报 3280.34 点，深证成 指（-0.16%）收报9759.05点，创业板指（0.09%） 收报 1908.78 点。两市量能下降至 0.99 万亿 （数据来源：Wind）。申万Ⅰ级行业多数上涨， 房地产、综合领涨，汽车、有色金属领跌。 风险提示 市场流动性缩量可能加剧短期波动风险。 当日要闻 中华人民共和国和马来西亚关于构建高水平战略性中马命运共同体的联合声明。应马来西亚 最高元首易卜拉欣陛下邀请，中华人民共和国主席习近平于 15 日至 17 日对马来西亚进行国 事访问，就中马双 ...

证券研究报告｜数据点评 2025 年 4 月 16 日 一季度宏观数据解读：经济韧性较强 无惧市场风浪 核心观点： 外部关税壁垒升级虽然对出口形成短期压力，但国内政策组合拳发 力下，经济内生增长动能逐步增强，国内经济极具韧性，对全球经 济波动有较强的抵抗性，有利于吸引全球资产配置中国市场。另外， 通胀的整体回暖向好，表现了稳增长，扩内需政策逐步落地的有效 性，对市场预期有正向促进作用。 一、宏观政策组合拳发力生效，国内经济增速有韧性： 一季度财政政策靠前发力，政府债券发行提速。3 月新增政府债券 近 1.5 万亿元，同比多增近 1 万亿元。特别国债发行 5000 亿元补充 银行资本，预计撬动 4 万亿元信贷增量。货币政策保持合理宽松， M2 增速稳定维持在 7.0%，信贷结构也在持续优化，小微企业贷款、 绿色贷款等重点领域得到了更大力度的支持。 GDP 增速表现亮眼。一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.4%，这一成绩不仅高于 去年同期，更是在全球主要经济体中脱颖而出，展现出中国经济强 大的韧性和活力。工业增加值增长 6.5%，服务业增长 5.3%，固定资 产投资增长 4.2%，社会消费品零售总额增长 4.6%。3 ...

证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 4 月 15 日 权益市场触底反弹 债市短期迎机遇 【20250407-20250413】 核心观点 大类资产总览：权益市场触底反弹，债市高位震荡。 本周，A 股连续四周回落，受美国"对等关税"影响，A 股 周一大幅下行走低，虽后续整体缓幅回升，但依旧未能补足 周一的过大回落；债市整体高位震荡，在全球投资者风险偏 好显著上行的时期，债市迎来短暂机遇期；本周大宗商品整 体回落幅度较大，同样受到美国关税影响，大部分商品受到 冲击，短期有所滑落。 本周 A 股观点：A 股短期维稳，趋势整体温和向好。 A 股本周呈现触底反弹趋势，周一虽然受到美国关税政策， 以及国际市场的集体走低的影响，A 股出现大幅下跌，但后 续市场情绪得以稳定，多方喊话也彰显了国家对维持股市平 稳运行的信心，在此情况下，A 股后续实现触底反弹，虽然 未能回归前高，但整体趋势温和向好，无需过多担忧。 A 股配置建议：短期来看，市场进入反弹阶段，科技板块在 前期充分回调后，又因关税事件大幅走低，其中更多受市场 情绪面影响，在后续市场情绪稳定后，科技板块有望迎来阶 段性反弹，并带动市场上行回暖。在进入 4 ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 ◆ 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 动力煤和焦煤价格双走高，关注煤炭布局机会 【2025.4.7-2025.4.13】 行业评级：中性 核心观点 发布日期：2025.4.14 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 大同证券研究中心 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 邮箱： liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2024-04-19 2024-05-19 2024-06-19 2024-07-19 2024-08-19 2024-09-19 2024-10-19 2024-11-19 一、市场表现：权益市场几近全线下跌，煤炭板块跑输指数 本周（2025.4.7-2025.4.13），权益市场几近全线下跌，美国对中国的对等关税不断升 级，最终税率增加到 145%，悲观情绪爆发，黑色星期一上演多股跌停，但 ...

证券研究报告｜基金配置周报 2025 年 04 月 14 日 美方豁免部分产品的"对等关税"，自主可控仍可布局 【20250407-20250413】 ◼ 市场回顾：上周权益市场多数指数回调，创业板指跌幅最大， 下跌 6.73%；债券市场整体回暖，10 年期国债到期收益率下行 大同证券研究中心 6.12BP，期限利差小幅走阔，长短端 AAA 信用利差均进一步走 阔；基金市场中偏股基金指数和二级债基指数均周度收跌，而 长债基金指数和短债基金指数继续反弹；申万 31 个行业跌多 涨少，消费医药板块继续回暖。 ◼ 权益类产品配置策略： ➢ 事件驱动策略：（1）央行等四部门联合印发《关于金融支持体 育产业高质量发展的指导意见》：鹏华文体传媒娱乐(001223)、 银华体育文化(018590)和招商体育文化休闲（001628）；（2） 美方近日宣布豁免部分产品"对等关税"，可关注：博时半导 体主题(012650)、工银智能制造(002861)和嘉实科技创新 （007343）；（3）第五届中国国际消费品博览会在海南举办， 可关注：嘉实新消费(164403)、华夏消费臻选(017719)和工银 新生代消费（005526）。 ...

Group 1: Market Impact of Tariff Policies - Trump's tariff policy exceeded market expectations, leading to a significant drop in global markets, with the US stock market falling nearly 8% and the Hong Kong market dropping over 10%[1] - The immediate impact of tariffs caused a sharp decline in investor risk appetite, resulting in accelerated capital outflows from both domestic and foreign investors[1] - The long-term effects of the tariffs are expected to disrupt the global supply chain established over the past 40 years, significantly impacting multinational corporations and their profitability[1] Group 2: China's Response and Policy Measures - China quickly retaliated with a 34% tariff on US imports, demonstrating preparedness against US protectionist measures[4] - The Chinese government has reserved substantial fiscal tools, including an additional 1.2 trillion yuan in special bonds, to support the economy amid external uncertainties[4] - Monetary policy adjustments, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are being considered to stabilize the economy[4] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The current position of the A-share market is relatively low, suggesting limited downside risk and potential opportunities for investors[3] - The Chinese government is committed to stabilizing the stock market, with measures such as increasing ETF purchases to mitigate negative impacts from tariffs[3] - Investors are encouraged to maintain confidence and strategically allocate assets to capitalize on market bottom opportunities amid ongoing volatility[5]