Market Overview - The equity market experienced a collective decline last week, with the North Certificate 50 index dropping the most at 2.55% [5][6] - The bond market saw a collective decline in both short and long-term interest rates, with the 1-year government bond rate decreasing by 4.50 basis points to 1.355% [9][13] - The fund market reflected the equity market's downturn, with the偏股基金指数 down 1.65% and the二级债基指数 down 0.07% [15][16] Event-Driven Strategy - The National Medical Products Administration has initiated support for the innovation of high-end medical devices, highlighting investment opportunities in funds such as 南方医药保健 A (000452), 鹏华品牌传承 (000431), and 信澳健康中国 A (003291) [17] - Xiaomi's first SUV is set to launch, presenting potential investment in 工银新能源汽车 A (005939), 嘉实港股互联网产业核心资产 A (011924), and 鹏华新能源汽车 A (016067) [17][18] - The World Mobile Communications Conference held in Shanghai showcased advancements in robotics, indicating investment potential in 华夏智造升级 A (016075), 嘉实制造升级 A (018240), and 鹏华碳中和主题 A (016530) [19] Asset Allocation Strategy - The report suggests a balanced core and barbell strategy, focusing on dividend and technology sectors, with recommended funds including 安信红利精选 A (018381) and 嘉实港股互联网核心资产 (011924) [20][21] - The report emphasizes the value of high-dividend assets due to the low interest rate environment and government policies encouraging dividends [20] - The technology growth sector is highlighted for its investment value, driven by national policy support and the global trend towards artificial intelligence [21] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's recent actions indicate a net injection of 102.1 billion yuan, maintaining a balanced and loose funding environment [24] - The report notes that the LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year rate, aligning with market expectations [25] - Economic data from May showed better-than-expected performance, with industrial value-added growth at 5.8% year-on-year [25] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include 诺德短债 A (005350) for short-term strategies and 安信新价值 A (003026) for a bond-equity hybrid approach [30][29]

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced narrow fluctuations, ultimately closing in the red: Shanghai Composite Index at 3387.40 (-0.04%), Shenzhen Component Index at 10151.43 (-0.12%), and ChiNext Index at 2049.94 (-0.36%) [2] - The total trading volume in both markets remained at 1.2 trillion CNY [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included coal (+0.89%), public utilities (+0.82%), and oil & petrochemicals (+0.72%) [6] - The worst-performing sectors were pharmaceuticals (-1.44%), beauty care (-1.24%), and media (-1.22%) [6] Market Statistics - Out of 5,413 stocks, 2,250 rose, 247 remained flat, and 2,916 fell, indicating a decline rate of approximately 53.8% [5] - The total trading volume was 986.94 million shares, with a total turnover of 12,072.13 billion CNY [5] Risk Factors - The report highlights potential risks from international market volatility, particularly following the EU's cancellation of high-level economic dialogues with China [3] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in Israel and Iran, have prompted the Chinese government to organize the evacuation of its citizens from the region [3] Oil Price Adjustment - Domestic fuel prices were adjusted upward, with gasoline prices increasing by 260 CNY/ton and diesel by 255 CNY/ton, translating to a rise of 0.20 CNY for 92-octane gasoline and 0.22 CNY for 95-octane gasoline and 0-octane diesel [3]

Market Review - The equity market experienced a general pullback last week, with the North Certificate 50 index showing the largest decline at -3.11%, while the ChiNext index rose slightly by 0.22% [5][6] - Among the 31 industries tracked, non-ferrous metals and petroleum & petrochemicals showed significant rebounds, with increases of 3.79% and 3.50% respectively [5][6] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on the Middle East tensions, with potential investments in oil and gold-related funds such as E Fund Oil C and Huaan Yifu Gold ETF [12][14] - The defense and military industry may present new opportunities, particularly with the establishment of the Xiong'an Aerospace Satellite Super Factory, which could lead to increased interest in related funds like Bosera Military Theme A and Huaxia Military Safety A [14][15] - Quantum computing is at a turning point, with Nvidia planning to build 20 AI factories in Europe, suggesting investment potential in funds like Huaxia Intelligent Manufacturing A and Jiao Yin Technology Innovation A [14][17] Asset Allocation Strategy - The overall allocation strategy emphasizes a balanced core with a barbell approach, focusing on dividend and technology sectors [18] - High dividend assets are highlighted as having significant allocation value due to the low interest rate environment and government support for dividend-paying companies [18][19] - The technology growth sector is underscored as a key investment area, driven by national policy support and the global trend towards AI development [19] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's recent operations indicate a net withdrawal of 727 billion yuan, reflecting a cautious market outlook [22] - Recent inflation data shows a slight decline, suggesting continued room for monetary policy easing [23] - Convertible bonds are noted for their dual characteristics of debt and equity, maintaining value despite market volatility, with a median price around 1200 [22][23] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include Nord Short Bond A and Anxin New Value A, which are positioned to benefit from current market conditions [27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Insights - Port inventory is being reduced, and coal prices may be nearing the bottom. Some production areas have seen an increase in coal prices, but without a significant reduction in inventory, a price turning point is unlikely [10][11] - Coking coal prices continue to decline, and total inventory in the coking steel sector is decreasing. The market is expected to maintain a weak trend for coking coal prices [24][25] - The equity market shows mixed performance, with the coal sector slightly underperforming the index. Recent geopolitical events have heightened risk aversion, impacting market sentiment [6][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market experienced mixed results, with the coal sector slightly underperforming the indices. The average market turnover was 1.3 trillion yuan, with daily financing fluctuating around 100 billion yuan [6][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, closing at 3377 points, while the CSI 300 Index also fell by 0.25%, closing at 3864.18 points. The coal sector saw a slight decline of 0.50%, closing at 2565.75 points [6][10] Thermal Coal - Port inventory is being reduced, with northern ports seeing a decrease in coal inventory to below 29 million tons. Daily average coal consumption at southern power plants increased to 1.804 million tons, up 4.6% week-on-week [10][16] - The price of thermal coal has shown mixed fluctuations, with some production areas experiencing price increases. However, the overall market is expected to face pressure due to weak demand [11][12] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continue to decline, with the average price for various types of coking coal dropping significantly. The market is characterized by cautious purchasing behavior from downstream steel companies [24][25] - The average utilization rate of coking coal mines is at 85.8%, with a slight decrease week-on-week. The overall supply remains relatively sufficient [24][27] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim has increased, with an average of 75 vessels per day. Shipping prices have also decreased, reflecting a broader trend in the coal transportation market [32][33] Industry News - The U.S. government has approved plans for coal mining companies to expand operations to boost exports to Asia. This move is part of a broader strategy to strengthen ties with overseas allies [35] - Shanxi Province aims to increase coalbed methane reserves by 20% year-on-year by the end of 2025, highlighting efforts to optimize resource utilization [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious recommendation for the company [1] Core Views - Shanxi Coking Coal is one of the most influential coking coal producers in China, backed by the Shanxi Coking Coal Group, which is controlled by the Shanxi Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. The company is focusing on resource integration and eliminating outdated production capacity to strengthen its leading position in the coking coal industry [3][11] - The company is actively expanding its business in electricity and coke, forming a diversified industrial structure that includes coal, electricity, coke, chemicals, and materials. Despite a decline in sales volume due to market conditions, the company maintains a stable cash flow from its electricity and heat products [4][25] Company Overview - Shanxi Coking Coal has a total market capitalization of 369.01 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 306.1 billion yuan. The company has a total share capital of 5.677 billion shares, with a 52-week stock price range of 5.97 to 11.43 yuan [3][4] - The company has 17 mines with a coal resource reserve of 6.53 billion tons, with 16 mines currently in production and one under construction [23][24] Business Operations - The company reported a revenue of 452.90 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 18.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 31.08 billion yuan, down 54.10% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to a reversal in the coal market supply-demand dynamics, leading to a significant drop in coal prices [37][45] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.38%, which, while lower than previous years, remains competitive compared to peers in the industry [4][39] Future Outlook - The supply of coking coal is expected to continue to decline, with domestic production decreasing and imports remaining stable. The demand side is currently weak, but government efforts to stabilize the real estate market may lead to a recovery in demand [5][64] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 424.52 billion yuan, 432.59 billion yuan, and 449.42 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.46, 0.58, and 0.64 yuan per share [5]

Group 1: Equity Market Insights - A-shares showed an upward trend this week, driven by stable macroeconomic data and short-term concepts like "Soochow Super," 5G, and innovative pharmaceuticals[2] - The technology sector is expected to become a mainline market trend, with significant performance driven by internal risk clearance and external positive news[3] - Consumer sectors are experiencing rotation, with pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics benefiting from hot topics, while dividend sectors may face upward limitations due to international volatility[3][15] Group 2: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is experiencing high volatility, with short-term bonds favored due to their liquidity, which helps mitigate short-term investment risks[4][36] - Current domestic liquidity remains loose, supporting short-term prosperity in the bond market despite increasing uncertainties[4][36] - A recommendation for bond allocation suggests favoring short-term bonds for their flexibility in responding to potential market changes[6][36] Group 3: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market is rebounding from low levels, with metals and precious metals showing strong performance, influenced by global recovery expectations[6][45] - Gold remains in a high volatility state, with short-term demand expected to decline as U.S. tariff policies stabilize, but long-term demand may still be supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties[6][45] - Overall, other commodity categories are underperforming, with a prevailing trend of low volatility expected in the commodity market[6][45]

证券研究报告｜基金配置周报 2025 年 06 月 09 日 苹果全球开发者大会 WWDC 即将召开，抓住科技布局机会 【20250602-20250608】 | ◼ | 市场回顾：上周权益市场主要指数集体反弹，创业板指涨幅最 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 大，上涨 2.32%；债券市场长短端利率集体下行，十年期国债 | 大同证券研究中心 | | | 下行 1.65BP，期限利差小幅走阔，长短端 AAA 信用利差走势不 | 分析师：杨素婷 | | | 一；基金市场中偏股基金指数和二级债基指数均周度收涨，中 | 执业证书编号： | | | 长期纯债和短期纯债基金指数也周度飘红；申万 31 个行业涨 | S0770524020002 | | | 多跌少，TMT 板块集体反弹。 | 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn | | ◼ | 权益类产品配置策略： | | | ➢ | 事件驱动策略：（1）苹果全球开发者大会 WWDC 即将召开，可 | | | | | 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 | | | 关注：博时数字经济 A(012082)、景顺长城远见成长 C(014473) ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 核心观点 发布日期：2025.6.9 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2024-06-14 2024-07-14 2024-08-14 2024-09-14 2024-10-14 2024-11-14 2024-12-14 2025-01-14 2025-02-14 2025-03-14 2025-04-14 2025-05-14 沪深300 煤炭指数 大同证券研究中心 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 邮箱： 港口库存持续释放，焦炭开启第三轮提降 【2025.6.2-2025.6.8】 行业评级：中性 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 格稳中有降，尤其是产地煤价继续反弹受，随着高温天气增多， 需求边际改善，价格有望止跌企稳。 ◆ 焦煤价格稳中有降，焦钢总库存持续走低。本周，炼焦煤在基 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that port inventories continue to decline, while coking coal has entered its third round of price reductions. The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to weak demand and supply pressures [6][11][26] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed a general upward trend, with the coal sector underperforming the index. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13% to 3385.36 points, while the coal sector fell by 0.50% to 2565.75 points [7][11] Thermal Coal - Port inventories are decreasing, and production coal prices are facing resistance in rebounding. The average daily consumption of coal at power plants in southern regions has decreased to 1.693 million tons, down 182,000 tons week-on-week [11][12][19] - The report notes that while high temperatures may increase electricity demand, the overall supply-demand relationship remains loose, leading to weak price stability [12][19] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are stable but declining, with the market experiencing a supply surplus and weak demand. The average utilization rate of coking coal mines is at 86.4%, down 1.3% week-on-week [26][30] - The report highlights that the third round of price reductions for coking coal has been implemented, with significant price drops observed in various regions [26][29] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels in the Bohai Rim ports has decreased, and shipping prices have also declined. The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou is 40.30 yuan/ton, down 2.15 yuan/ton week-on-week [34][36] Industry News - The report covers significant developments such as the first coal transport from Meizhou Bay Port to Ningbo Zhoushan Port, the launch of Australian coal trading at Hainan International Energy Trading Center, and the approval of a coal mine integration plan in Inner Mongolia [37][38]

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 港口库存压力缓解，动力煤产地价强势反弹 【2025.5.26-2025.6.1】 行业评级：中性 发布日期：2025.6.3 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2024-06-07 2024-07-07 2024-08-07 2024-09-07 2024-10-07 2024-11-07 2024-12-07 2025-01-07 2025-02-07 2025-03-07 2025-04-07 2025-05-07 沪深300 煤炭指数 大同证券研究中心 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 邮箱： liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 核心观点 ◆ 港口库存压力缓解，动力煤产地价强势反弹。本周，煤价稳中 有升，随着高温天增加，电煤日耗将进入提升阶段，但当前供 需宽松，预计 ...