Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to stabilize after a recent decline, supported by seasonal demand and supply constraints as winter approaches [4][10] - The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with funds flowing into low-volatility, high-dividend sectors, while growth sectors are under pressure [5][37] - The coal sector has outperformed the market indices, with coal stocks showing resilience amid market fluctuations [5][37] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market showed structural differentiation, with a daily average trading volume of 1.76 trillion yuan, indicating cautious market sentiment [5] - The coal sector rose by 0.33%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 [5] - Notable stock performances included Huabei Mining (+2.38%) and Haohua Energy (+2.22%), while Xindazhou A (-14.79%) and Dayou Energy (-6.33%) faced significant declines [5] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices continued to decline, with supply constraints due to strict safety regulations and seasonal demand variations [9][10] - The average capacity utilization rate of 100 sample thermal coal mines was 88.3%, down 1.9 percentage points week-on-week [9] - Port inventories increased, with northern ports showing a 1.7% rise in coal stock [9][10] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices showed a stable upward trend, supported by low inventory levels and limited supply increases [21][22] - The average capacity utilization rate of 88 sample coking coal mines was 83.2%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points [21] - The market remains in a demand lull, but some improvement in steel mill operations has been noted [21][22] Shipping Situation - The number of anchored vessels decreased, and shipping prices fell across major routes [30] - The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou was 39.25 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline [30] Industry News - Shanxi Province has produced 2.9 billion tons of coal over the past five years, with a significant portion allocated for energy supply [33] - Indonesia plans to impose a 1% to 5% export tax on coal starting in 2026 to enhance fiscal revenue [34] - The National Mine Safety Administration is focusing on safety measures to ensure high-quality development in the mining sector [33]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The pulp inventory has significantly decreased, leading to a notable rebound in pulp prices. The average closing price of pulp futures has risen by 563.2 CNY/ton to 5303.6 CNY/ton, with inventory levels dropping to an average of 154,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 47,375.8 tons [3][9] - The packaging paper prices are showing a mixed trend, with corrugated paper prices slightly decreasing by 30 CNY/ton, while other types like boxboard and white card paper remain stable. The long-term outlook suggests that the reduction in production by leading companies will continue to support price recovery [3][6] - The release of the "Guangdong Province Paper Industry Transformation Financial Implementation Guidelines" aims to provide funding support for the industry's green and low-carbon transformation, filling a gap in the national framework [4] - The industry is expected to experience a "supply optimization + cost support + policy backing" scenario, enhancing the sector's configuration value. The demand for packaging paper is showing resilience, while the supply side is improving due to production cuts [3][26] Summary by Sections Industry News - The "Guangdong Province Paper Industry Transformation Financial Implementation Guidelines" were released to support the green transformation of the industry, with Guangdong's paper and board production reaching 26.48 million tons in 2024, accounting for 16.7% of the national total [4] Market Trends - The pulp market is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with expectations for pulp prices to recover year-on-year due to limited new capacity in 2026. The cost advantages of integrated pulp and paper companies are expected to become more pronounced [3][5] - The packaging paper sector is anticipated to see a recovery in price levels, with the supply expansion phase nearing its end. The industry is expected to improve capacity utilization and price levels in 2026 [6] Investment Strategy - The current phase is critical for "valuation recovery + industry prosperity," suggesting a focus on "pulp-paper integration + policy beneficiaries." Companies with integrated pulp-paper operations are expected to benefit from cost advantages and profit elasticity as pulp prices recover [26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The demand for AI-driven storage is surging, with Micron's Q1 revenue for fiscal year 2026 reaching $13.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57%, indicating strong ongoing AI demand [2][35] - The storage chip industry is entering a new upcycle, driven by both supply-side adjustments and structural recovery in demand, particularly for high-performance storage related to AI [2][31][34] - The semiconductor industry continues to experience robust demand, with global semiconductor sales in October 2025 reaching $72.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.2% [22][24] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.03% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.89% during the week of December 15-21, 2025 [1][6] - The electronic sector underperformed, declining by 3.28% [6] Industry Data Tracking - The consumer electronics sector is increasingly reliant on technological innovation and stimulus policies, with smartphone shipments in China growing by 12.4% year-on-year in October 2025 [16] - The semiconductor industry remains strong, with domestic semiconductor equipment demand continuing to improve [22] - The storage chip industry is experiencing a significant uptrend, with DRAM prices showing a strong upward trend due to demand from AI servers [27][34] Investment Recommendations - The ongoing AI data center demand is expected to drive storage needs significantly, with a recommendation to focus on companies that achieve technological breakthroughs in key areas of the semiconductor supply chain [31][34] - The current price increase in the storage market is driven by AI-related high-performance storage demand and supply constraints in traditional storage sectors [31][34] Industry News and Important Announcements - Micron Technology reported a 57% increase in revenue for Q1 FY2026, driven by AI data center demand [35] - Samsung has launched the Exynos 2600, the world's first mobile application processor built on a 2nm process [36] - Honda's factories in China are facing production cuts due to semiconductor shortages, with a temporary shutdown planned [39]

Core Insights - The overall market is experiencing a period of sustained volatility as it approaches the holiday season, with the equity market showing insufficient upward momentum and trading volume significantly below 20 trillion [2][9] - Investor sentiment is cautious, influenced by a policy vacuum at year-end and increased risk aversion due to the holiday season, leading to a lack of upward movement in the market [3][10] - Despite the short-term volatility, the market remains supported at relatively high levels, indicating resilience and a potential for upward movement in the medium to long term, especially with favorable policies and strong corporate earnings expected [3][12] Equity Market Summary - The A-share market continues to maintain high-level fluctuations, with trading volumes remaining weak and investor caution increasing [3][10] - The year-end policy vacuum and external market conditions, such as the transition in the U.S. Federal Reserve leadership and the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, contribute to a subdued market environment [3][10] - In the medium to long term, the market has significant upward potential, particularly with the "14th Five-Year Plan" beginning and a supportive monetary environment [3][12] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for equity allocation, focusing on both offensive positions in sectors like communication, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, and defensive positions in consumer sectors to enhance returns [3][13] Bond Market Summary - The bond market continues to exhibit a volatile trend, closely following the equity market, indicating a lack of independent movement [4][35] - Without significant positive developments, the bond market is expected to remain weak in upward momentum, making it difficult to achieve independent performance [5][35] Commodity Market Summary - The commodity market is also experiencing volatility, with precious metals, particularly gold, showing a strong upward trend while other commodities remain subdued [6][40] - Gold prices are expected to continue rising in the medium to long term, supported by both investment and safe-haven demand, potentially leading precious metals to develop an independent trend [6][40] - It is advised to maintain positions in gold as part of the commodity investment strategy [6][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance of the previous week and provides allocation strategies for equity and stable - type products. It suggests that investors can focus on relevant funds based on event - driven strategies and asset allocation strategies in the equity market, and pay attention to short - term debt funds and fixed income + funds in the stable - type product market [1][28] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review Equity Market - Most major equity market indices declined last week, with the STAR 50 having the largest decline of 2.99%. The ChiNext Index (-2.26%), CSI 300 (-0.28%), Wind All - A (-0.15%), and Beijing Stock Exchange 50 (-0.13%) also fell, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.03%. In the past 1 month, 3 months, and year - to - date, the leading indices were the ChiNext Index, Shanghai Composite Index, and ChiNext Index respectively. Shenwan primary industries showed mixed performance, with the consumer sector rebounding collectively. Sectors such as commerce and retail (6.66%), non - banking finance (2.90%), beauty and care (2.87%), social services (2.66%), and basic chemicals (2.58%) were relatively high - ranking, while electronics (-3.28%), power equipment (-3.12%), machinery and equipment (-1.56%), comprehensive (-1.53%), and communication (-0.89%) were relatively low - ranking [4] Bond Market - The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection last week, and the money market remained loose. Both short - and long - term interest rates declined. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 0.88BP to 1.831%, and the 1 - year yield fell from 1.388% to 1.355%, with the term spread (10Y - 1Y) widening. The credit spreads of short - and long - term bonds showed different trends [7] Fund Market - Affected by the equity market, the equity - biased fund index fell 0.61%, the secondary bond fund index rose 0.10%, the medium - and long - term bond fund index rose 0.05%, and the short - term bond fund index rose 0.08% [13] Equity - type Product Allocation Strategies Event - driven Strategy - **2025 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference**: The conference was held in Xi'an on December 18. In 2026, the photovoltaic industry will strengthen capacity regulation. Relevant funds to focus on include Harvest Low - Carbon Selection A (017036), Great Wall China Intelligent Manufacturing A (001880), and ICBC Industrial Environment A (001245) [15] - **New Breakthrough in Chinese Optical Computing Chips**: Shanghai Jiao Tong University researchers achieved a breakthrough in the new - generation optical computing chips. Relevant industries to focus on are integrated circuit design, optical modules, and semiconductor equipment. Relevant funds are Boshi Semiconductor Theme A (012650), Huaxia Semiconductor Leading A (016500), and ICBC Emerging Manufacturing A (009707) [16] - **Full - island Customs Closure of Hainan Free Trade Port**: The full - island customs closure event was held on December 18. Relevant sectors to focus on are duty - free, tourism, high - end consumption, and medical and health. Relevant funds are Harvest Logistics Industry A (003298), GF Ruiyi Leading A (005233), and Harvest Mutual Integration Selection A (006603) [17] Asset Allocation Strategy - The overall allocation idea is a balanced bottom - position + barbell strategy, with dividends and technology + high - end manufacturing at the two ends of the barbell. Dividend assets have allocation value due to the low - interest - rate environment and policy support. The balanced style can reduce risks and capture opportunities in different market environments. The technology growth direction is supported by national policies, high industry prosperity, and the need for domestic substitution. The military industry has strategic and investment value under the background of geopolitical conflicts. Relevant funds to focus on include Anxin Dividend Selection A (018381), Anxin Advantage Growth A (001287), Huaxia Zhisheng Pioneer A (501219), Harvest Hong Kong Internet Core Assets A (011924), and Boshi Military Industry Theme A (004698) [18][20][22] Stable - type Product Allocation Strategies Market Analysis - The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 189 billion yuan last week, keeping the money market loose. In November, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month, with a 6.0% year - to - date increase. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Convertible bonds need attention due to their volatility risk [23][24] Key Focus Products - The overall allocation idea is to continue holding short - term debt funds but lower the return expectations. Investors who want to increase overall returns can consider appropriately allocating fixed income + funds. Key funds to focus on are Nord Short - term Debt A (005350), Cathay Pacific Li'an Medium - and Short - term Debt A (016947), Anxin New Value A (003026), and Southern Glory A (002015) [27][28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - Short-term import relief alleviates supply pressure, while long-term self-replacement is imperative [2] - The demand for semiconductors remains strong, with ongoing domestic substitution efforts [24] - The storage chip industry is entering a new upcycle, driven by strong demand for high-performance memory from AI servers and data centers [29] - The global AI wave is driving sustained high demand for advanced chips and related manufacturing [34] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% to 3889.35 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84% to 13258.33 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.74% to 3194.36 points during the week of December 8-14 [1][7] - The electronic sector rose by 2.63%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.98 percentage points [7] Industry Data Tracking - The consumer electronics industry is increasingly reliant on technological innovation and stimulus policies, with a significant increase in smartphone shipments in September [18] - In October 2025, global semiconductor sales reached $72.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.2% [24] - The storage chip industry is experiencing a strong upward trend in DRAM prices, reflecting robust demand from AI applications [29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic semiconductor companies that achieve technological breakthroughs and are integrated into mainstream chip manufacturing supply chains, as they are crucial for China's self-sufficiency strategy [34] - The current market for storage is experiencing significant price increases due to heightened demand from AI applications and supply constraints [35]

Group 1 - The overall asset performance indicates that various asset classes have entered a period of fluctuation, with the equity market experiencing a high-level consolidation phase, primarily driven by the technology sector, while consumer and cyclical sectors remain weak [1][6]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was weaker than expected, limiting its positive impact on the U.S. and global economies, which in turn affects the capital markets [1][6]. - The Central Economic Work Conference in China reiterated a stable growth approach, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and improving investment, although the implementation of these policies may take time to materialize [2][10]. Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with limited substantial positive news and a preference for stability as the new year approaches [2][10]. - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending maintaining positions in the technology sector while cautiously considering opportunities in the consumer sector due to recent positive macro data [2][11]. - The technology sector is expected to remain a core driver of market performance, with significant opportunities arising from national competition and domestic innovation [10][11]. Group 3 - The bond market is following the trends of the equity market, showing a clear negative correlation, and is expected to remain under pressure without significant positive catalysts [3][32]. - The bond market's configuration suggests limited upward potential in the short term, but it may serve as a stabilizing option against equity market volatility [32]. Group 4 - The commodity market is experiencing a return to a fluctuating trend, with precious metals like silver supporting the upward movement of the precious metals index, while energy and chemical commodities are underperforming [4][41]. - The report anticipates that gold may continue to rise in the long term, driven by a decoupling from the U.S. dollar, although the overall strength of the commodity market will depend on the performance of metals and agricultural products [41][45].

Market Review - The equity market showed mixed performance last week, with the North Certificate 50 index rising the most by 2.79%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% [5][6] - The bond market saw a collective decline in both short and long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.84 basis points to 1.840% [10][13] - The fund market reflected the equity market's influence, with the equity fund index increasing by 0.71% and the secondary bond fund index rising by 0.06% [16] Equity Product Allocation Strategy Event-Driven Strategy - The joint announcement by three departments to boost consumption suggests a focus on consumer-related funds such as Jiashi New Consumption A and Industrial Bank New Generation Consumption [18] - The release of the "Action Plan for Enhancing Elderly Care Service Capacity" indicates potential investment in the healthcare sector, with funds like Jiashi Mutual Selection A and Penghua Medical Innovation A being highlighted [19] - The opening of the "Robot World" emphasizes investment opportunities in AI and robotics, with funds like Huaxia Intelligent Manufacturing Upgrade A and Jiashi Frontier Innovation being recommended [20] Asset Allocation Strategy - The overall strategy suggests a balanced core plus a barbell approach, focusing on dividend and technology sectors, with recommended funds including Anxin Dividend Selection A and Jiashi Hong Kong Internet Core Assets [21][26] - The dividend assets are highlighted for their value in a low-interest-rate environment, supported by national policies encouraging regular dividends from companies [21] - The technology growth direction is emphasized due to government support and the global trend towards AI development, making tech companies increasingly attractive [22][23] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The analysis indicates a continued net injection by the central bank, maintaining a loose monetary environment, which is favorable for the bond market [27] - Recent CPI and PPI data show a slight increase in consumer prices, while the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut aligns with expectations for a supportive monetary policy [28] - Recommended products include short-term bond funds like Nord Short Bond A and Guotai Lianan Medium and Short Bond A, with a focus on maintaining a conservative risk profile [33]

证券研究报告｜事件点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 宏观政策基调延续 稳中求进中做好提质增效 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议解读 事件简述： 2025 年 12 月 11 日，中央经济工作会议在召开，会议总结了 2025 年的 经济工作，分析了当前经济形势，部署了 2026 年经济工作。继 12 月 8 日中央政治局会议分析研究 2026 年经济工作，提出明年八大重点任务 后，中央经济工作会议在此基础上进一步细化重点任务的政策安排和目 标，并在财政货币政策、政策关键着力点等方面提出具体部署。 核心观点： 具体内容 请仔细阅读报告最后的重要法律申明 第 1 页 共 6 页 大同证券研究中心 执业证书编号： S0770523090001 邮箱： jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址： http://www.dtsbc.co m.cn 分析师：景剑文 证券研究报告｜事件点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 域的规范化指导或增加，助力人工智能领域发展。 "稳中求进"总基调不变，挖掘经济潜能做好经济提质增效。本次 会议主要根据中央政 ...

核心观点： 证券研究报告｜事件点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 宏观政策基调延续 稳中求进中做好提质增效 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议解读 事件简述： 2025 年 12 月 11 日，中央经济工作会议在召开，会议总结了 2025 年的 经济工作，分析了当前经济形势，部署了 2026 年经济工作。继 12 月 8 日中央政治局会议分析研究 2026 年经济工作，提出明年八大重点任务 后，中央经济工作会议在此基础上进一步细化重点任务的政策安排和目 标，并在财政货币政策、政策关键着力点等方面提出具体部署。 具体内容 请仔细阅读报告最后的重要法律申明 第 1 页 共 6 页 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号： S0770523090001 邮箱： jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 请仔细阅读报告最后的重要法律申明 第 2 页 共 6 页 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址： http://www.dtsbc.co m.cn "稳中求进"总基调不变，挖掘经济潜能做好经济提质增效。本次 会议主要根据中央政治局会议研究内容进行细化，相关任务目标具 有连 ...