Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to continue rising due to supply constraints and increased demand from power plants, with a notable week-on-week increase in daily coal consumption by 11% [4][11][39] - The report highlights that the coking coal prices are also anticipated to rise, driven by supply reductions and strong demand from steel mills, particularly in the context of pre-holiday stockpiling [24][39] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed a general upward trend, with the coal sector outperforming the index, as the coal industry index rose by 3.65% during the week [5][39] - Major coal companies saw significant stock price increases, with Shaanxi Coal Industry leading at 9.90% [5] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices are on the rise, with supply constraints due to extreme weather affecting production in key regions [10][11] - The report notes that the utilization rate of thermal coal mines is at 89.9%, indicating a slight decrease, and that imports are also declining due to price competitiveness [10][12] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are expected to continue increasing, supported by strong demand from steel production and low inventory levels [23][24] - The report mentions that the average operating rate of coking coal mines is at 85.0%, reflecting a decrease in production capacity [23][28] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Sea has significantly decreased, leading to an increase in shipping rates for coal [32] Industry News - The report discusses the resumption of premium coal exports by China Pingmei Shenma Group and the successful trial of a heavy-load railway by the National Energy Group [35][36]

Market Review - The equity market saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.11%, the highest among major indices [4][7] - The advanced manufacturing sector experienced a collective rebound, with notable increases in industries such as defense and military (5.93%) and non-ferrous metals (5.78%) [4][5] - The bond market showed a downward trend in both short and long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 1.68 basis points to 1.706% [8][10] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on funds related to the 2025 World Robot Conference and the upcoming Low Altitude Economy Conference, with specific funds highlighted for investment [12][13][14] - The asset allocation strategy suggests a balanced core with a barbell approach, emphasizing dividend and technology sectors, with recommended funds listed [16][20] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The analysis indicates a net injection of 163.5 billion yuan by the central bank, maintaining a loose monetary environment [22] - July export data showed resilience, with a total export value of 321.78 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [22] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring convertible bonds due to potential volatility risks [23][27]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations but shows a slow upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4054.93, down 1.75% for the week, and the ChiNext Index at 2322.63, down 0.74% [1][2][7] - The performance of major indices indicates a mixed trend, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 2.36% and 2.17% respectively, while the crude oil market saw a significant increase of 2.92% [1][2] Fund Market Review - The average stock position of all funds increased to 80.41%, up 1.92 percentage points from the previous week, while the average position for equity mixed funds decreased by 4.13 percentage points to 74.76% [3][12] - In terms of performance, passive index funds averaged a decline of 1.42%, while ordinary stock funds fell by 0.37% [13][14] Fund Issuance - A total of 28 new funds were established this week, raising 12.833 billion, a decrease from the previous week, with stock funds accounting for the largest share at 8.090 billion [4][25] Fund Performance - Among equity products, the best-performing passive index fund was the Communication ETF, which rose by 5.84%, while the worst performer saw a decline of 8.17% [16][14] - In the fixed income category, the best-performing mixed bond fund increased by 3.19%, while the average performance of mixed bond funds was a decline of 0.21% [18][21] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The public REITs market is expanding, with the listing of the first central enterprise natural gas power public REIT, increasing the total number of public REITs to 71 [30] - There is a growing interest from individual investors in ETFs, with several new ETFs set to launch, indicating a rising acceptance and participation in the ETF market [31]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a pullback after five consecutive weeks of gains, indicating a temporary adjustment rather than a complete market reversal[10] - The Shanghai Composite Index hovered around the 3600-point mark, with average daily trading volume exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting strong market activity[13] - The political bureau meeting on July 30 expressed confidence in the economy, indicating continued macroeconomic policy support for the second half of the year[10] International and Domestic Factors - The U.S. has released stable signals regarding tariff policies, contributing to a more stable global economic environment[10] - Ongoing negotiations between China and the U.S. are trending positively, despite no clear outcomes yet[13] Sector Insights - Technology sectors are expected to benefit from eased restrictions on chip exports to China, with a focus on communication and semiconductor industries[15] - The "anti-involution" theme is gaining traction, with potential investment opportunities in solar energy and new energy sectors[15] - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area for domestic demand expansion, particularly in tourism and dining sectors[15] Investment Strategy - Short-term focus on innovation-driven sectors, while maintaining a balanced "barbell" strategy that includes both technology and dividend-paying stocks[16] - Long-term investments should consider sectors aligned with government policy directions, such as technology and service-oriented consumption[16] Bond Market - The bond market showed slight stabilization due to the pullback in equity markets, although future outlook remains cautious[35] - The bond market's performance is closely tied to equity market trends, necessitating ongoing monitoring[35] Commodity Market - The commodity market has seen a decline, with black metals and precious metals underperforming due to supply-demand dynamics[46] - Short-term recommendations include maintaining gold positions, while a cautious approach is advised for other commodities[46]

Market Review - The equity market experienced a collective pullback last week, with the North Certificate 50 index showing the largest decline of 2.70% [5][6] - The bond market saw a decrease in both short and long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 2.65 basis points to 1.706% [8][11] - The fund market reflected the equity market's downturn, with the equity fund index down by 0.39% and the secondary bond fund index down by 0.22% [13][14] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on funds related to the successful transportation of materials by domestically developed unmanned aerial vehicles, the implementation of the "Childcare Subsidy System," and the security concerns surrounding H20 computing chips [16][17][18] - The overall asset allocation strategy suggests a balanced core with a barbell approach, emphasizing dividend and technology sectors, as well as high-end manufacturing [19][20] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's net injection of 6.9 billion yuan indicates a balanced and loose funding environment [25] - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline in manufacturing activity, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1% [25] - The introduction of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, 2025, may impact bond market dynamics [25] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include Nord Short Bond A and Huaan Pure Bond A for core strategies, and for satellite strategies, funds benefiting from convertible bond opportunities and equity market conditions [3][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A-share market experienced a pullback after a five-week rally, but this temporary adjustment does not signify the end of the current market trend. The market remains healthy with active trading and strong volume, as evidenced by an average daily trading volume exceeding 1.8 trillion [2][3][11] - The report highlights that the 730 Politburo meeting expressed a positive outlook on economic development in the first half of the year and provided guidance for the second half, emphasizing the need for continued macro policy support [3][12] - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly related to the Nvidia supply chain, should be a focus for short-term investments, while the "anti-involution" theme and service consumption are expected to be key areas for medium to long-term investment [12][13] Group 2 - The bond market showed signs of stabilization due to the pullback in the equity market, which provided some funding support for bonds. However, the outlook for the bond market remains cautious as it is heavily influenced by the equity market's performance [4][5][35] - The commodity market faced a decline, with various categories experiencing a downturn. The report notes that without strong upward momentum in key commodities like oil and gold, the commodity market may struggle to regain its previous highs [6][38] - The report recommends maintaining a short-term allocation in gold while adopting a wait-and-see approach for the medium to long term regarding other commodities [40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the inventory at Beigang is rapidly decreasing, and the price of coke has seen a third round of increases, leading to a continued rise in coking coal prices [4][10] - The coal supply is constrained due to heavy rains and typhoons, which, combined with the high temperatures during peak summer demand, is expected to push coal prices higher [4][11] - The report highlights that the coal sector has underperformed the market index, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a pullback after surpassing 3600 points [5][38] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed a downward trend, with the coal sector significantly underperforming the index, as indicated by a weekly decline of 4.67% in the coal sector [5][10] - The average daily trading volume remained around 1.8 trillion yuan, with fluctuations in financing purchases [5][10] Thermal Coal - The price of thermal coal continues to rise, driven by supply constraints from adverse weather conditions and regulatory checks on coal production [10][11] - The average daily consumption of coal by southern power plants has increased, reflecting a rise in demand due to high temperatures [10][12] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal has also increased, supported by a recovery in steel mill profitability and ongoing inventory replenishment despite some marginal demand weakening [23][24] - The report notes that the third round of price increases for coke has been implemented, further stimulating demand for coking coal [23][24] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim has decreased, while shipping rates have risen across various routes, indicating a tightening supply chain [31][32] Industry News - A cooperation agreement has been established between Shizuishan and Hami for coal resource supply, indicating a strategic move towards regional energy collaboration [34] - The International Energy Agency projects a slight increase in global coal demand in 2025, driven by consumption growth in emerging economies [34]

证券研究报告——市场日报 三大指数再度冲高回落 美联储最新关税政策来袭 证券研究报告——市场日报 2025.08.01 （预计发布时间：2025.08.04） 大同证券研究中心 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址: http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 行情回顾 周五（8 月 1 日），三大指数早盘短暂拉 升冲高，之后震荡回落，午后三大指数悉数翻 绿，尾盘触底反弹，跌幅收窄。截至收盘，上 证指数（-0.37%）收报 3559.95 点，深证成指 （-0.17%）收报 11991.32 点，创业板指（- 0.24%）收报 2322.63 点。两市量能急速回落， 跌破 1.6 万亿（数据来源：Wind）。申万Ⅰ级 行业多数下跌，环保、传媒、轻工制造领涨； 石油石化、国防军工、钢铁领跌。 风险提示 国际市场出现利空引发扰动 当日要闻 最高 41%！特朗普最新签令 上调一连串关税！美国对全世界至少收 10%关税。当地时间 7 月 31 日，特朗普总统签署新行政令，进一步修改今年 4 月发布的所谓"互惠关税"政策， 对多国商品调整附加关税税率，以应对美方所称"长期且严重 ...

——7 月中央政治局会议解读 事件简述： 7 月政治局会议召开 六大信号值得关注 7 月 30 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，决定今年 10 月在北京召开中国 共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政 治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五 个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 核心观点： 下半年双宽松基调依然未变，科技、消费仍是"重头戏"。会议从 整体角度来看，对于上半年的经济表现仍持肯定，但对于消费需求 乏力、地产依然疲软、出口边际回落等隐患，仍有一定关注，因此， 对于下半年宏观政策依然保持双宽松，且强调"持续发力、适时加 力"，这对于下半年经济发展无疑是一剂"强心针"。而从具体结 构来看，会议重点指出六大信号，其中，消费的商品侧向服务侧发 力、科技与产业深度融合，依然是下半年经济发展的重点。而"反 内卷"相关论述也有所提及，另外，对于外贸行业的支持仍在加力， 基建也伴随后续城市发展的重心偏移得到机会。最后，会议仍对资 本市场提出了期望，金融板块在下半年宽松的流动性环境下，或仍 有上行机会。配置建议：重点关注科技（计算机、芯片）、服务 ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业事件点评 "反内卷"下，哪些煤炭个股值得关注(二) 【2025.7.30】 行业评级：看好 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 大同证券研究中心 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 邮箱： liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 核心观点 发布日期：2025.7.30 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 煤炭行情走势图 "反内卷"力度确认是关键。在经历 7 月 24 日焦煤期货主力 合约涨停，7 月 25 日大商所发布限制焦煤期货开仓消息，以及 7 月 28 日焦煤期货全面回调甚至出现跌停后，市场炒作情绪降 温，逐渐回归理性，但"反内卷"必要性仍在，对于市场指数 如何演绎，需要看"反内卷"的政策力度和执行力度。 焦煤现货价格和焦煤指数的走势基本相随。与上篇中动力煤现 货价格和动力煤市场走势大差不差，可按照供给侧改革、疫情 暴发、经济强预期弱现实这几个阶段划分，炼焦煤价格和市场 指数 ...