Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market is recovering after a recent downturn, with significant rebounds in previously underperforming sectors such as chips and communications, which are crucial for the market's future performance [1][7][9] - The domestic macroeconomic situation remains stable without major negative surprises, while overseas markets, particularly the US stock market, have stabilized and are showing signs of recovery, providing support for the domestic equity market [1][7][9] - The report suggests that the A-share market may experience short-term fluctuations within a range due to profit-taking pressures, but the medium to long-term outlook remains positive, supported by a relatively stable international market environment and the potential for strong performance in key sectors [2][10][11] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing a notable decline, attributed to the rebound in the equity market, which has led to a shift in investor preference towards riskier assets, resulting in a lack of upward support for bonds [4][31] - The report recommends a cautious approach to bond investments, suggesting that the bond market may continue to face downward pressure in the short term, with a need for observation in the medium to long term [4][31] Group 3 - The commodity market has shown signs of recovery, particularly with a strong rebound in gold prices, which is expected to provide substantial support for the overall commodity market [5][34] - The report highlights that while gold is currently in a range-bound state, the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing trends away from the US dollar, suggesting a high probability of upward movement for gold prices [5][35][38]

证券研究报告｜基金配置周报 2025 年 12 月 2 日 夸克 AI 眼镜发布，如何抓住上车机会？ 【2025124-20251130】 | ◼ | 市场回顾：上周权益市场主要指数集体反弹，创业板指跌幅最 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 大，上涨 4.54%；债券市场长短端利率集体上行，其中十年期 | 大同证券研究中心 | | | 国债上行 2.46BP，一年期国债上行 0.09P,长短端信用利差均 | 分析师：杨素婷 | | | 有所走阔；基金市场中偏股基金指数和二级债基指数均周度收 | 执业证书编号： | | | 涨，中长期纯债基金指数和短期纯债基金指数均周度收跌；申 | S0770524020002 | | | 万一级行业涨多跌少，TMT 板块集体反弹。 | 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn | | ◼ | 权益类产品配置策略： | | | ➢ | 事件驱动策略：（1）国家航天局印发《国家航天局推进商业航 | | | | | 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 | | | 天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025—2027 年）》，可关注：华 | 西世贸中心 A 座 F1 ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 煤价高位回落，继续关注下游需求变化 【2025.11.24-2025.11.30】 行业评级：看好 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 大同证券研究中心 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 发布日期：2025.12.1 煤炭行情走势图 供暖需求进一步释放，动力煤价有望回升。本周，由于煤炭产 能利用率提高，而终端需求不及预期，导致动力煤价高位回落， 随着冬季供暖需求进一步释放，以及供给端安监维持较严水 平，预计煤价有望在震荡运行后企稳回升。 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 核心观点 下游有望开启补库，焦煤价预计以稳为主。本周，焦煤供给量 上升，而下游钢厂盈利率进一步遭到压缩，焦煤价格在供增需 减的情况下下降，进入 12 月焦企和钢厂或启动补库，对焦煤 价格有一定支撑，预计煤价窄幅震荡、以稳为主。 权益市场涨多跌少，煤炭跑输指数。在美联储降息预期升温和 国内 12 月中旬 ...

证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 废纸成本支撑，原纸涨价落地 【2025.11.24-2025.11.30】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 今年三季度以来，包装纸价格接连上涨，进入四季度后，又有多家纸企开启新一轮提价。 近日，央视财经频道推出纸价上涨专题报道，指出包装纸价格涨幅已达 25%以上，产业链上 下游企业正通过各种方式，积极应对成本压力。 1 分析师：杨素婷 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 发布日期：2025.12.01 造纸行情走势图 包装纸涨价潮深化，全产业链传导顺畅：本周各企业涨价接续 落地，三季度以来累计涨幅超 25%，多家纸企密集上调白卡纸、 瓦楞纸等价格 50-200 元/吨。终端价格同步走强，箱板纸、瓦 楞纸、白卡纸均价周环比分别上涨 50 元/吨、50 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The packaging paper price increase and inventory reduction are strengthening the recovery momentum in the paper sector [1] - The price increase is driven by high waste paper costs and changes in import policies for recycled pulp, leading to a solid pricing logic in the industry [3] - The industry is experiencing a clear improvement in fundamentals, with a strong correlation between packaging paper price increases and pulp inventory reduction [3] Summary by Sections Industry News - Several major paper companies, including Shanying Paper and Dongguan Jiu Long Paper, have announced maintenance shutdowns, affecting various paper types and potentially impacting domestic raw paper supply and prices [4] - The price increase trend continues, with Jiu Long and Shanying raising prices by 50 CNY/ton for various paper types, indicating a nationwide ripple effect [5] Market Data - As of November 6, 2025, China's mainstream port pulp inventory decreased by 53,000 tons, reflecting improved demand [6] - The average price of domestic bleached kraft pulp rose by 11.25 CNY/ton, while the average price of bleached hardwood pulp increased by 18.75 CNY/ton [11] Investment Strategy - The paper sector is at a critical stage benefiting from "price increase dividends and inventory improvement," focusing on the dual main lines of "price increase elasticity and structural optimization" [22] - Short-term tracking of packaging paper price increases and the impact of paper company shutdowns is recommended, with potential for increased investment in leading paper companies if supply contraction exceeds expectations [22]

Market Review - The equity market experienced a decline last week, with the STAR 50 index dropping the most at 3.85%. Other indices such as the ChiNext index fell by 3.01%, and the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.08% [4][5] - In the bond market, the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.02 basis points to 1.814%, while the 1-year yield increased from 1.405% to 1.410% [8][12] - The fund market saw a decline in equity funds by 0.71%, while secondary bond fund indices showed slight increases [15] Equity Product Allocation Strategy Event-Driven Strategy - The commissioning of China's first electromagnetic aircraft carrier presents investment opportunities in sectors such as aerospace, high-end equipment, and defense [17] - The State Council's meeting emphasized enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, suggesting potential in the consumer sector [18] - Berkshire Hathaway's initial investment in Alphabet, valued at $4.3 billion, highlights the focus on AI technology and presents opportunities in related funds [19] Asset Allocation Strategy - The strategy suggests a balanced core with a barbell approach, focusing on dividend and technology sectors [20] - The dividend sector is seen as valuable due to low interest rates and government support for regular dividends [21] - The technology sector is highlighted for its growth potential driven by national policy support and global trends in AI [21][22] Stable Product Allocation Strategy Market Analysis - The central bank's net injection of 626.2 billion yuan indicates a tightening of the funding environment [26] - The retail sales total for October showed a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, while industrial output increased by 4.9% [26] - Convertible bonds are noted for their volatility risks, with recent price movements indicating a need for caution [26] Key Focus Products - Short-term bond funds are recommended, with an emphasis on adjusting yield expectations [29] - Funds such as Nord Short Bond A and Guotai Lianan Medium and Short Bond A are highlighted for their stable performance [31]

Market Review - The equity market saw most major indices rise last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index leading at an increase of 1.08% [4][5] - The bond market experienced a slight increase in long and short-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond rising by 1.88 basis points to 1.814% [8][10] - The fund market showed mixed results, with the equity fund index rising by 0.06% and the secondary bond fund index increasing by 0.12% [15][16] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on funds related to carbon neutrality initiatives, such as Industrial Bank Eco-Environment A and Harvest New Energy Vehicle Leaders A [18] - The central bank's continuous gold purchases over the past 12 months suggest a favorable environment for gold-related investments, with funds like Huaan Gold ETF and Harvest Gold [18][20] - The overall asset allocation strategy emphasizes a balanced core and a barbell strategy, focusing on dividend and technology sectors [21][22] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - Recent market analysis indicates a net withdrawal of 15,722 billion yuan by the central bank, maintaining a balanced funding environment [25] - October export data showed a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, while CPI turned positive for the first time this year, indicating potential effects of domestic demand policies [26] - Key products to focus on include short-term bond funds like Nord Short Bond A and Guotai Li'an Medium and Short Bond A [31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The continuous price increase of raw paper is alleviating the cost pressure in the paper industry, with packaging paper prices rising significantly due to a smooth transmission across the entire industry chain [3][24] - The supply-demand situation for pulp is improving, leading to a gradual reduction in cost pressures, with domestic pulp prices stabilizing [3][24] - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards green and intelligent production, with significant projects being signed to enhance capacity and sustainability [3][21][23] - The paper industry is in a recovery phase, with demand rebounding and supply pressures easing, indicating a potential for price increases and improved profitability [3][24] Summary by Sections Industry News - The China Packaging Federation's Paper Committee has called for the industry to resist "involution-style" competition to promote healthy and orderly development [4] Industry Performance Data - From January to September 2025, the paper and paper products industry reported revenues of 1,037.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, with total profits down 15.6% [5] - Recent price adjustments by major companies like Shanying Paper have led to price increases of 30-100 yuan/ton across various bases [5][6] Company Developments - China Haicheng signed contracts for significant projects, including a 2 million ton green packaging material project, indicating a shift towards sustainable practices [21] - Yibin Paper's bamboo pulp molding project has commenced, marking a step towards green manufacturing [23] - Shanying Huazhong Paper is planning a major chemical pulp project with an annual capacity of 706,000 tons, reflecting ongoing industry upgrades [23] Investment Strategy - The paper industry is at a cyclical bottom, showing signs of gradual recovery, with price increases expected in packaging paper due to strong demand and cost alleviation [24] - Focus on leading companies in the packaging paper sector that have strong market positions and can benefit from price increases [24]

Group 1: Market Stability and Reform - The capital market is crucial for national development and economic flow, serving the mission of building a "financial power" [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for capital markets to fulfill their role in financing the real economy, making high-quality development timely [1] - Internal stability must be reinforced through mergers and acquisitions to enhance the quality of listed companies [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Focus on sectors benefiting from the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, particularly in chips, artificial intelligence, and communications [1] - Opportunities for mergers and acquisitions are highlighted against the backdrop of high-quality development of listed companies [1] - Long-term capital is expected to favor high-dividend stocks such as banks, coal, and public utilities [1] Group 3: International Investment Trends - Over $150 billion of international funds flowed into emerging markets in the first nine months of the year, indicating a growing interest in Chinese assets [2] - The quality of Chinese assets is being re-evaluated, with northbound capital inflows reflecting global investor confidence [2] - The optimization of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system aims to lower barriers for foreign investment [11] Group 4: Regulatory and Risk Management - The meeting emphasized the importance of risk prevention and regulatory enforcement to maintain a healthy capital market environment [11] - Continuous efforts to protect the rights of small and medium investors are crucial for sustainable market development [11]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The packaging paper price increase trend continues, with leading paper companies like Nine Dragons and Shanying announcing price hikes, indicating a strong demand and cost transmission effect in the paper industry [3][4] - The pulp market inventory is decreasing, with the average price of domestic bleached softwood kraft pulp dropping by 96.25 yuan/ton, easing cost pressures for paper companies [3][10] - Policies and corporate initiatives are accelerating the industry's transformation towards "green, intelligent, and integrated" production, with several companies achieving significant milestones in water efficiency and resource utilization [3][5][22] - The valuation and fundamentals of the paper sector are resonating positively, with many companies listed among the top 500 manufacturing enterprises in China, indicating strong cash flow and performance certainty [3][5] Summary by Sections Industry News - Hebei province has included the paper industry in its carbon offset program, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while promoting sustainable practices [4] - Multiple paperboard manufacturers are passing on cost pressures to downstream packaging companies, indicating a sustained price increase trend for raw paper [4] High-Frequency Data - The average inventory of pulp futures has decreased to 229,000 tons, down by 3,123.75 tons week-on-week, while the average closing price has slightly increased to 4,818 yuan/ton [6] Company Events and Announcements - Asia Pacific Forestry and Paper has been recognized as a leading water-efficient enterprise in Shandong, achieving a 95.98% industrial water recycling rate [22] - Guangxi Jianhui Paper's first batch of wood chips has successfully entered the factory, marking a significant step in its integrated supply chain [22] - The 220 billion yuan integrated forestry and paper project by Liansheng has commenced full production, significantly altering the regional paper industry landscape [22] Investment Strategy - The current phase of the paper sector is characterized by deepening price increases and policy support, with a focus on the packaging paper price increase and the upcoming demand from the Double Eleven shopping festival [23]