Datong Securities
Search documents
高景气赛道领涨,把握政策技术红利
Datong Securities· 2025-12-09 10:29
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3] Core Views - The food and beverage industry experienced a downturn this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points, with significant differentiation among sub-sectors. Pre-processed foods and beer led the gains, while the liquor sector faced pressure. Structural fluctuations in raw material prices, along with policy support and technological innovation, are expected to enhance industry upgrades. The approach suggests focusing on leading companies in high-growth sectors and those benefiting from policy changes [3][5][60]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - During the week of December 1-7, 2025, the food and beverage index fell by 1.90%, ranking 29th among primary industries and underperforming the CSI 300 index. Pre-processed foods (+1.51%), beer (+1.20%), and soft drinks (+0.43%) showed relative strength, while liquor and other alcoholic beverages saw significant declines [5][12]. Raw Material Data Tracking - Grain prices showed slight increases, with corn averaging 2357.45 CNY/ton (+1.19%) and wheat at 2515.22 CNY/ton (+0.32%). Vegetable and fruit prices also rose slightly, with vegetables averaging 5.93 CNY/kg (+2.42%) and fruits at 7.41 CNY/kg (+2.63%) [20][23]. Key Industry Data Tracking - In the liquor sector, prices for some products have declined, with Moutai's wholesale price dropping by 1.90% to 1550 CNY/bottle. The overall liquor sector is experiencing a downturn, indicating a phase of adjustment in industry dynamics [33][41]. Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on high-growth sectors, policy and technology benefits, and valuation attractiveness. Key areas include pre-processed foods and beer, which are expected to benefit from expanding consumption scenarios and the upcoming peak season. The liquor sector, while currently under pressure, remains a long-term investment due to its stable demand. Additionally, attention should be given to companies with strong cost control and integrated operations in the meat and vegetable processing sectors [60].
煤炭供需弱平衡,政策或利于红利布局
Datong Securities· 2025-12-09 05:45
证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 【2025.12.1-2025.12.7】 行业评级:看好 核心观点 发布日期:2025.12.9 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源:Wind 大同证券 分析师:刘永芳 执业证书编号:S0770524100001 煤炭供需弱平衡,政策或利于红利布局 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落,板块轮动加快,板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 动力煤供给基本稳定,期待需求释放。本周,煤炭主产区供应 量基本稳定,由于终端需求不及预期,煤价继续回调,市场观 望情绪浓烈,随着供暖需求释放,煤价有望企稳回升。 焦煤需求压缩,预计煤价震荡运行。本周,焦炭首轮提降落地, 需求进一步压缩,导致煤价继续承压运行,随着下游冬储补库 需求释放、国内煤矿供应低位,预计煤价震荡运行。 权益市场涨跌互现,煤炭跑赢指数。美股科技继续反弹,外部 流动性宽松预期支撑风险资产;我国金融监管总局调整险资投 资股票的风险因子,预计将为 A 股带来超千亿元增量资金;证 监会放宽券商杠杆限制、起草 ...
政策持续赋能,行业加快转型
Datong Securities· 2025-12-08 11:54
【2025.12.01-2025.12.07】 行业评级:看好 核心观点 证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 政策持续赋能,行业加快转型 风险提示 需求不及预期风险,原材料价格波动风险,政策落地偏差风险。 大同证券研究中心 执业证书编号:S0770524020002 邮箱:yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理:温慧 执业证书编号:S0770125070012 邮箱:wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 发布日期:2025.12.08 造纸行情走势图 包装纸提价持续兑现,多纸种价格稳步上行:本周包装纸涨价 潮持续深化,龙头纸企密集发布调价通知,瓦楞纸、箱板纸同 比分别上涨 17.65%、6.86%。终端价格同步走强,箱板纸、瓦 楞纸均价周环比均上涨 50 元/吨,白卡纸单周涨幅达 100 元/ 吨,白板纸因供给收紧(产能优化)、龙头提价计划带动,价 格稳步上行至3467元/吨。废纸成本支撑与下游刚性需求共振, 价格传导机制完全通畅,盈利修复逻辑持续强化。 数据来源:Wind 大同证券 纸 ...
食品饮料、周报:细分赛道分化,技术政策双重驱动-20251203
Datong Securities· 2025-12-03 03:31
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2][63]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry has shown slight growth but underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with significant differentiation in sub-sectors. Pre-processed foods and emerging categories are leading the growth, while the liquor sector is under pressure. The stability in raw material prices, along with technological breakthroughs and policy support, is driving industry upgrades. The upcoming consumption peak and supply optimization enhance growth certainty. It is recommended to focus on leading companies in niche segments and those benefiting from technological innovations [2][4][60]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - During the week of November 24-30, 2025, the A-share major indices showed a slight upward trend, with the SW Food and Beverage Index rising by 0.07%, ranking 28th among the first-level industries and underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.57 percentage points. Pre-processed foods (+5.64%) and snacks (+2.88%) led the sub-sector performance, while liquor and beer experienced slight adjustments [4][11]. Raw Material Data Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, the average prices for various raw materials showed mixed trends. For grains, corn prices increased by 2.17% to 2329.8 CNY/ton, while wheat prices rose by 0.10% to 2507.28 CNY/ton. Vegetable and fruit prices also saw slight increases, with average wholesale prices for vegetables at 5.79 CNY/kg (+1.94%) and fruits at 7.22 CNY/kg (+1.83%) [22][25]. Key Industry Data Tracking - In the liquor sector, high-end product prices are showing a mixed trend, with some premium products experiencing price corrections. For instance, the reference wholesale price for Feitian Moutai decreased by 4.24% to 1580 CNY/bottle. In the meat sector, the average price for pork was 22.86 CNY/kg, down by 0.70% [35][37][38]. Industry and Company News - Significant advancements in the domestic production of lactoferrin, a key ingredient in infant formula, have been achieved, reducing reliance on imports. This breakthrough is expected to enhance the domestic high-end dairy product supply chain [44][45]. Additionally, the release of the first intelligent brewing standard for liquor in Yibin marks a shift towards scientific brewing practices in the industry [54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth sub-sectors, technological and policy benefits, and valuation attractiveness. Pre-processed foods and snacks are expected to benefit from rising consumer demand and the upcoming peak season. The dairy sector is also poised for growth due to domestic innovations, while the liquor sector, despite short-term pressures, remains a long-term investment opportunity [60].
AI算力多元竞争开启,产业链迎新机遇
Datong Securities· 2025-12-02 11:09
证券研究报告|TMT 行业周报 2025 年 12 月 2 日 AI 算力多元竞争开启,产业链迎新机遇 【20251124-20251130】 周度市场回顾:本周(11/24-11/30)沪指周涨幅 1.4%, 收 3888.6 点,深证成指周涨幅 3.56%,收 12984.08 点,创业 板指周涨幅 4.54%,收 3052.59 点。本周 A 股市场在经历了 周初的连续调整后,于下半周展现出韧性,主要指数触底反 弹,整体呈现先抑后扬的格局。 周度行业要闻:(1)闻泰科技敦促安世荷兰正视问题。 11 月 28 日,闻泰科技(600745.SH)发布关于安世半导体控制 权争议及全球芯片产业链稳定的官方声明。(2)谷歌 TPU 市 值逼近 4 万亿美元。近日,谷歌母公司 Alphabet 股价连续多 日强势上涨,市值逼近 4 万亿美元,创下历史新高。截至 24 日收盘,Alphabet 市值约为 3.84 万亿美元,位列全球第三, 仅次于英伟达和苹果。AI 算力市场正加速摆脱对英伟达 GPU 的单一依赖,寻求基础设施多元化,拥抱以 TPU 为代表的 AI 专用芯片的新架构方向。(3)北京"十五五"规划聚焦未来 ...
短期或维持区间震荡,中长期向上概率仍偏高
Datong Securities· 2025-12-02 09:32
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market is recovering after a recent downturn, with significant rebounds in previously underperforming sectors such as chips and communications, which are crucial for the market's future performance [1][7][9] - The domestic macroeconomic situation remains stable without major negative surprises, while overseas markets, particularly the US stock market, have stabilized and are showing signs of recovery, providing support for the domestic equity market [1][7][9] - The report suggests that the A-share market may experience short-term fluctuations within a range due to profit-taking pressures, but the medium to long-term outlook remains positive, supported by a relatively stable international market environment and the potential for strong performance in key sectors [2][10][11] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing a notable decline, attributed to the rebound in the equity market, which has led to a shift in investor preference towards riskier assets, resulting in a lack of upward support for bonds [4][31] - The report recommends a cautious approach to bond investments, suggesting that the bond market may continue to face downward pressure in the short term, with a need for observation in the medium to long term [4][31] Group 3 - The commodity market has shown signs of recovery, particularly with a strong rebound in gold prices, which is expected to provide substantial support for the overall commodity market [5][34] - The report highlights that while gold is currently in a range-bound state, the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing trends away from the US dollar, suggesting a high probability of upward movement for gold prices [5][35][38]
夸克AI眼镜发布,如何抓住上车机会?
Datong Securities· 2025-12-02 09:32
证券研究报告|基金配置周报 2025 年 12 月 2 日 夸克 AI 眼镜发布,如何抓住上车机会? 【2025124-20251130】 | ◼ | 市场回顾:上周权益市场主要指数集体反弹,创业板指跌幅最 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 大,上涨 4.54%;债券市场长短端利率集体上行,其中十年期 | 大同证券研究中心 | | | 国债上行 2.46BP,一年期国债上行 0.09P,长短端信用利差均 | 分析师:杨素婷 | | | 有所走阔;基金市场中偏股基金指数和二级债基指数均周度收 | 执业证书编号: | | | 涨,中长期纯债基金指数和短期纯债基金指数均周度收跌;申 | S0770524020002 | | | 万一级行业涨多跌少,TMT 板块集体反弹。 | 邮箱:yangst@dtsbc.com.cn | | ◼ | 权益类产品配置策略: | | | ➢ | 事件驱动策略:(1)国家航天局印发《国家航天局推进商业航 | | | | | 地址:山西太原长治路 111 号山 | | | 天高质量安全发展行动计划(2025—2027 年)》,可关注:华 | 西世贸中心 A 座 F1 ...
煤价高位回落,继续关注下游需求变化
Datong Securities· 2025-12-01 11:41
证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 煤价高位回落,继续关注下游需求变化 【2025.11.24-2025.11.30】 行业评级:看好 数据来源:Wind 大同证券 大同证券研究中心 分析师:刘永芳 执业证书编号:S0770524100001 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 发布日期:2025.12.1 煤炭行情走势图 供暖需求进一步释放,动力煤价有望回升。本周,由于煤炭产 能利用率提高,而终端需求不及预期,导致动力煤价高位回落, 随着冬季供暖需求进一步释放,以及供给端安监维持较严水 平,预计煤价有望在震荡运行后企稳回升。 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落,板块轮动加快,板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 核心观点 下游有望开启补库,焦煤价预计以稳为主。本周,焦煤供给量 上升,而下游钢厂盈利率进一步遭到压缩,焦煤价格在供增需 减的情况下下降,进入 12 月焦企和钢厂或启动补库,对焦煤 价格有一定支撑,预计煤价窄幅震荡、以稳为主。 权益市场涨多跌少,煤炭跑输指数。在美联储降息预期升温和 国内 12 月中旬 ...
造纸行业周报:废纸成本支撑,原纸涨价落地-20251201
Datong Securities· 2025-12-01 09:34
证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 废纸成本支撑,原纸涨价落地 【2025.11.24-2025.11.30】 行业评级:看好 核心观点 风险提示 需求不及预期风险,原材料价格波动风险,政策落地偏差风险。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 今年三季度以来,包装纸价格接连上涨,进入四季度后,又有多家纸企开启新一轮提价。 近日,央视财经频道推出纸价上涨专题报道,指出包装纸价格涨幅已达 25%以上,产业链上 下游企业正通过各种方式,积极应对成本压力。 1 分析师:杨素婷 执业证书编号:S0770524020002 邮箱:yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理:温慧 执业证书编号:S0770125070012 邮箱:wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 发布日期:2025.12.01 造纸行情走势图 包装纸涨价潮深化,全产业链传导顺畅:本周各企业涨价接续 落地,三季度以来累计涨幅超 25%,多家纸企密集上调白卡纸、 瓦楞纸等价格 50-200 元/吨。终端价格同步走强,箱板纸、瓦 楞纸、白卡纸均价周环比分别上涨 50 元/吨、50 ...
造纸行业周报:包装纸提价+库存收缩,造纸板块复苏动能强化-20251117
Datong Securities· 2025-11-17 10:38
Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The packaging paper price increase and inventory reduction are strengthening the recovery momentum in the paper sector [1] - The price increase is driven by high waste paper costs and changes in import policies for recycled pulp, leading to a solid pricing logic in the industry [3] - The industry is experiencing a clear improvement in fundamentals, with a strong correlation between packaging paper price increases and pulp inventory reduction [3] Summary by Sections Industry News - Several major paper companies, including Shanying Paper and Dongguan Jiu Long Paper, have announced maintenance shutdowns, affecting various paper types and potentially impacting domestic raw paper supply and prices [4] - The price increase trend continues, with Jiu Long and Shanying raising prices by 50 CNY/ton for various paper types, indicating a nationwide ripple effect [5] Market Data - As of November 6, 2025, China's mainstream port pulp inventory decreased by 53,000 tons, reflecting improved demand [6] - The average price of domestic bleached kraft pulp rose by 11.25 CNY/ton, while the average price of bleached hardwood pulp increased by 18.75 CNY/ton [11] Investment Strategy - The paper sector is at a critical stage benefiting from "price increase dividends and inventory improvement," focusing on the dual main lines of "price increase elasticity and structural optimization" [22] - Short-term tracking of packaging paper price increases and the impact of paper company shutdowns is recommended, with potential for increased investment in leading paper companies if supply contraction exceeds expectations [22]